Washout at Dawlish

[Pete 75C]

I have to say, I hadn't really thought anything in terms of electrification or the practicalities (or impossibilities?) of electrification in the West Country. Personally, I find all that overhead spaghetti ugly and prone to "falling over" in high winds, so maybe not a good idea along the sea wall! There is also, no doubt, problems with tunnel clearance. I really don't know, so pardon my ignorance with regard to OHLE.*

 

* To be expected, really. I spent most of my career tripping over 3rd rail in the saaf.

[Sheffield]

Some years ago a map was produced indicating what would happen to the UK if sea levels became higher as a result of global warming. The map suggested that the term "British Isles" would take on real meaning, and, relevant to this discussion, the railway, and indeed most of Dawlish itself, would disappear. Clearly reinstatement is the only option for the short term, but in the longer term some alternative may be forced upon us. Do the experts know why the jet stream has moved south? What if it does not move back and this sort of weather becomes permanent?  

[jamie92208]

Just a point on the dual route knowledge that had Southern crews working the GWR route and vice versa.  I was once told tnhat this was at the insistance of the Admiralty who were concerned that supplies to the fleet at Plymouth might be disrupted either by natural causes or enemy action against the costal route.  If so it was a good example of proper strategic thinking.

 

Jamie

[298]

I have to say, I hadn't really thought anything in terms of electrification or the practicalities (or impossibilities?) of electrification in the West Country. Personally, I find all that overhead spaghetti ugly and prone to "falling over" in high winds, so maybe not a good idea along the sea wall! There is also, no doubt, problems with tunnel clearance. I really don't know, so pardon my ignorance with regard to OHLE.*

 

* To be expected, really. I spent most of my career tripping over 3rd rail in the saaf.

It's possible and has been done with heavy portals at Saltcoats in North Ayrshire- another coastal section that is often on the news.

[bodmin16]

Some years ago a map was produced indicating what would happen to the UK if sea levels became higher as a result of global warming. The map suggested that the term "British Isles" would take on real meaning, and, relevant to this discussion, the railway, and indeed most of Dawlish itself, would disappear. Clearly reinstatement is the only option for the short term, but in the longer term some alternative may be forced upon us. Do the experts know why the jet stream has moved south? What if it does not move back and this sort of weather becomes permanent?

 

The issue as I understand it is that the jet stream is currently hitting the UK directly at high speed, normally at this time of year it is heading down over the bay of Biscay, which is why this winter is comparatively warm. In the Summer the jet stream heads north over the top of Scotland. The current situation has resulted in storms, which i understand to be or a similar intensity to that which we normally experience, however it is the frequency that is currently the issue. These events re not unique, in 1919 something like a third of the Somerset levels was flooded and we are currently not close to that sort of level yet.

 

Whether you believe that the human race is responsible for changing the weather, personally I think we are bigging our selves up that we can affect our environment that much, the fact remains that our weather has changed and evolved since the our planet was formed and will continue to do so and likewise we will continue to evolve to live on our ever changing planet.

 

Gosh that was a it deep and philosophical for a Sunday morning entry to a discussion about them Dawlish sea wall!

 

Hats off to everybody battling the elements wherever you are!

[Clive Mortimore]

From the BBC news

 

Network Rail said a landslip at Crewkerne and flooding near Bridgwater and Athelney meant there were "no routes to the West Country open to trains".

 

 

 

Yesterday's events to the east of Exeter shows that no matter how many potential routes you have the weather will keep Captain Kernow and his team very very busy. So all this talk of a diversionary route, despite being a good read, is infact pointless at the moment.

[kevinlms]

I have to say, I hadn't really thought anything in terms of electrification or the practicalities (or impossibilities?) of electrification in the West Country. Personally, I find all that overhead spaghetti ugly and prone to "falling over" in high winds, so maybe not a good idea along the sea wall! There is also, no doubt, problems with tunnel clearance. I really don't know, so pardon my ignorance with regard to OHLE.*

 

* To be expected, really. I spent most of my career tripping over 3rd rail in the saaf.

Um, so how much better would a 3rd rail have performed? Would one wave over the track, short the whole lot out?

[Kris]

 

Anyway, I have not seen any mention of electrification for many, many pages. Was the line west of Exeter meant to get this eventually or was the plan to run diesel services of some kind from Bristol/Exeter all the way to Penzance?

Was it planned to run OHL as far as Plymouth and then Penzance would be a diesel 'branch line'? I really don't know what was planned so please don't suggest that I wake up; I have been awake for a couple of hours thanks, but have not read any planning reports yet.

P

 

Electrification is currently planned to get no further west than Bristol. Services from London will run under wires to there or Reading (or is it Bedwin?). At the moment the plans show HST's still being used for these services. 

[Pete 75C]

Would one wave over the track, short the whole lot out?

 

Probably, if I had ever suggested 3rd rail would work in the West Country any better than OHLE. But I didn't...

[corneliuslundie]

Don'y forget the DFT's beloved bi-mode trains. These would run under the wires until they ended and then carry on on diesel power.

[Mallard60022]

So south west of Brizzel is planned for diesel; thanks.

I suppose then that that more or less rules out any strong case for an 'inland' route based on the need for safety under the wires?  

The more I see here the more it would appear that the 'extended' and suitably improved 'walls' option is the way forward after reinstatement.

P

[Pete 75C]

Embarrassed by my ignorance of future plans for the GW main line beyond Bristol, I did a little homework and found this useful:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21st-century_modernisation_of_the_Great_Western_Main_Line

Interesting to note that a percentage of the new Hitachi units meant to replace the HSTs will be Electro-Diesel to allow their use further into the south west beyond the limits of the planned electrification. There's a lot of info there that I didn't know.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Pete_S

[Kris]

Don'y forget the DFT's beloved bi-mode trains. These would run under the wires until they ended and then carry on on diesel power.

 

I think that there is only one service to Paignton that will use these. All others will be HST. 

[Mallard60022]

Thanks Lifeboatman. That made interesting reading. I'll be long gone before that lot happens (sadly).

P

[kevinlms]

Probably, if I had ever suggested 3rd rail would work in the West Country any better than OHLE. But I didn't...

No, nor did I suggest anything of the sort.

I was merely pointing out the obvious problem 3rd rail has with flooding, just as you did by pointing out that the natural enemy of OHLE is high winds.

 

But since neither are planned, its irrelevant.

[Dunsignalling]

Electrification is currently planned to get no further west than Bristol. Services from London will run under wires to there or Reading (or is it Bedwin?). At the moment the plans show HST's still being used for these services. 

The electrification is primarily for the benefit of Bristol/South Wales at this stage and the majority of Plymouth/Penzance trains don't go via Bristol. There are, as yet, no firm plans for anything similar "down west" AFAIK.

 

In any event, I don't really think stringing 25kV along the sea wall would be terribly clever. However strong it can be made, the waves will still crash over it when the weather and tides get going.

 

John

[AngryMeerkat]

The wall at Dawlish is of an old design, a modern sea wall would probably not be constructed in such a manner. I don't know the particulars of the Dawlish wall but it looks to be vertical without any piles, vertical walls allow clapotic waves (which move vertically rather than horizontally) to form and cause heavy erosion at the base of the wall. These waves allow the wall to be undermined and collapse. 

 

Modern sea walls are curved with protection at the base, this prevents the wall being undermined and better distributes the forces of wave impact; it also prevents overtopping (water going over and beyond). The ideal solution would be to replace the sea wall with modern design. Failing that, I think having a steel reinforced slab concrete track bed supported on piles behind the existing wall would mean even if the wall was breached the track would remain in place and repairs would be much quicker and cheaper.

 

I know more about quays than sea walls but I've picked up a bit working in a marine engineering design office.

 

Cheers,

 

Jack

I had wondered about the merits of having the railway self-supporting using piles but how would this tie in with the structural integrity of the sea wall itself? I'm not familiar with the actual design but from the pictures it looks like the railway is supported on what is essentially the back-fill for the current sea wall. If piles were sunk for mounting the trackbed on, would these be a separate system or would the piles form part of the sea wall structure and the concrete wall be tied to the piles somehow? If they were part of the structure, would a failure in the sea wall also cause a failure in the trackbed, leading to the same situation we have now?

 

My guess would be the best solution is to have a new modern sea wall mounted in front of the current sea wall, using the current sea wall as it's rear mounting face. How practical this solution would be from an engineering and a visual perspective is something for those with more knowledge than me to answer, but it looks to be the best way.

 

Mark

[TheSignalEngineer]

I don't think NR owns any of that stuff beyond Okehampton. The 1.4.1994 split of BR was conducted on the basis of giving Railtrack operational lands and properties only. BR Property Board held onto the old and closed liabilities, including covenants on church rooves and village duckponds, extant since the railways were built. I suspect now BR Residuary has been wound down, the DoE may hold these lands etc?

Most non- operational land was given to the Highways Agency under the Statutory Instrument that abolished BRB (Residuary). Some went to L&CR, whilst a small amount went to NR.

[simon47603]

Tin Hat time.

 

What's caused the Jet Stream to shift, well you have to look at the big ball of Fire in the sky. This Solar Cycle SC24, should have been a maximum output cycle. However it has behaved like a Solar Minimum as SunSpot Activity has dramatically diminished! The next Solar Cycle,SC25 is due to be a minimum!

 

Certain people and organisations have been going about Global Warming, the Ice Caps are melting the seas are rising,...blah blah! The truth is that we did have a period of warming from 1978 to 1998, due to an increase in solar activity. Then the warming leveled off from 1998 to 2003 and since then we have seen a decline in temperature and a real increase of severe weather! Now most Warmies will deny this, but in the 20th Century, from 1910 to 1940 we had a similar period of warming followed by a cool period from 1940 to 1978. In the seventies their was a real worry that we were going to enter a full blown Ice Age! This pattern you will notice last roughly 30 years or so. So we should have expected to enter a period of cooling by now as this is simply natural variation.

 

However, I have never believed in Humans are responsible for Global warming, I'm not a denier, I am a Realist. The Medieval Warm period was warmer than it is now and the Roman Warm period was warmer than the Medieval Warm period!

 

Since before Christmas, their have been a few articles have appeared in the media, regarding the deminishing Solar output, I.e. The lack of Sunspots, the last time we had a downturn in solar activity, it was devastating. We now call it The Little Ice Age.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Real-risk-of-a-Maunder-minimum-Little-Ice-Age-says-leading-scientist

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2541599/Is-mini-ice-age-way-Scientists-warn-Sun-gone-sleep-say-cause-temperatures-plunge.html

 

If you think the weathers bad now, think again

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/storminess-of-the-little-ice-age/

 

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/what-was-life-like-in-the-little-ice-age/

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/what-was-life-like-in-the-little-ice-agepart-ii/

Plus Wiki version

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

 

Unless the Suns solar activity picks up, we are in for a rough time, hopefully it will be thirty years. However it could last 300! By the way the Polar Ice Caps are getting bigger!

 

Just to get this back on thread:

 

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/02/08/dawlish-railway-then-now/

http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=eng_faculty_publications&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fuk.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fei%3DUTF-8%26fr%3Dytff1-tyc-sc%26p%3Dillustrated%2520london%2520news%2520dawlish%2520railway%26type%3D#search=%22illustrated%20london%20news%20dawlish%20railway%22

Edited February 9, 2014 by simon47603

[Siberian Snooper]

The only way that electrification will ever get beyond Exeter, should it ever reach there, is to build the '30's GW diversionary route. I can't see that happening in my lifetime.

 

SS

[Pete 75C]

That's interesting, Simon47603. I have to admit that I've never subscribed to the hand-wringing "we're killing the planet" brigade... I personally think that as a cause, we're* all pretty insignificant when it comes to making much of a difference.

 

* The human race as a whole, not just RMWeb members...

[Joseph_Pestell]

The best people I have ever come across for writing contingency plans are SNCF - they have piles of the things, in great detail.  But I have never ever seen one of them actually work!  The key part of contingency planning is to have a knowledge of (or a set of 'rules' written down) around which you will build your initial reaction plan.  The reason for that is very simple - the emergency or whatever it is can arise at any part of the day on any day of the week and your starting point to get out of that has to be working with what you've got wherever it happens to be - if you are to provide the best possible service that is the only way you can do it, and sometimes you have to do it very quickly.

 

I have on occasion been called out at night to replan a pretty large chunk of the Western Region HST worked service for a day starting less than 5-6 hours hence - that is how it happens, and even if you have a 'contingency plan' you'll spend as much time altering it to fit as you take putting together something from scratch.  But you need the knowledge to do it and, dare I say it, the particular sort of approach which let's you play 3-dimensional chess with trains, traincrews, timetable paths, and platform capacity.  That's the initial reaction bit, longer term for an ongoing situation - such as Dawlish now - can be done with a bit more leisure over several days and can be a different sort of planning, provided you know what you are planning for and assuming it is a static situation.

 

The LMR used to have a plan called CP1 which explained in considerable detail what happened and what, precisely, was to be done if the wires were down south of Rugby on both routes or south of Stafford on the Trent Valley.  It was thick document - and every time the wires came d it never worked as planned, for all sorts of reasons ranging from a shortage of diesels to non-availbility of men who knew the road to Paddington.  In the end it was ditched, thus saving hours of work re-writing it for every timetable change, but it was replaced by a far simpler outline base which simply said - X trains per hour to run to Paddington and the rest to termiinate at wherever.

 

Sorry to go on but there is, in my experience, quite a difference between the theory and the reality of short term service replanning in an emergency (and oddly enough SNCB does it in exactly the same way as BR used to).

 

I have had some dreadful experiences on SNCF. If they have contingency plans, someone has forgotten which drawer they are stored in.

[Gwiwer]

Over a weekend away one of the fastest-moving topics ever seen on this site has resulted in me being bombarded with reply notification emails.  I wasn't able or wiling to read all the messages but it strikes me that we have a number which fall into the reasoned and informed bracket offering constructive opinion and support.  There have been a good many advocating the reopening of the LSWR route via Okehampton with greater or lesser degrees of reality applied.  And there has been a number of what I might term ill-informed and possibly insensitive comments made suggesting those who run and maintain the railway simply don't know best.

 

Clearly we have a subject here dear to many hearts.  

 

I said my piece much earlier and have little more to add other than to continue following CK's comments for which I must add my thanks in the extremely trying circumstances he finds himself.  

 

But by way of placing things in perspective we drove home from a perfectly delightful weekend of swimming, boating and relaxation in the sun with a choice of calm lake or powerful ocean waters.  Today was one of those hot and very windy days which afflict the State of Victoria a few times each summer.  Bush fires (whether started by an act of nature such as lightning, by accident or deliberately) quickly become uncontrollable.  A tiny grass fire becomes a raging inferno within minutes requiring water-bombing aircraft to deal with it.  Half-way home we were diverted off the freeway due to "fire activity" and were faced with a towering column of smoke ahead which stretched across perhaps a mile of the immediate horizon.  We were then diverted off the "diversion and evacuation route" which itself came under threat and were driving through thick orange smoke.  A lengthy detour taking over an hour saw us safely around the fires which continue to burn and threaten thousands of homes.

 

Others have not been so lucky.  A good friend and fellow modeller had flames within 200 metres of his front door.  That fire went on to destroy nearby homes.  We don't know yet what the total losses are.  Over 70 fires are still burning tonight with some communities evacuated or advised it is too late to leave and to stay put and hope for the best.  

 

The inconvenience of a temporarily-severed main line railway, which is being rebuilt despite what some here might prefer, pales into insignificance when set against the destructive power of nature in other modes.  Railways can be rebuilt and so can houses but homes take longer and lost lives can never be replaced.

 

 

EDIT to include a screen shot which tells its own story!  Emergency warning of fires here (CFA being our Country Fire Authority) back to back on my news feed with flooding on the Somerset levels.

 

Edited February 9, 2014 by Gwiwer

[Coombe Barton]

Global Warming:

 

Everybody (not on here) is looking for "the Cause" of global warming. You see it everywhere - in both "camps"and not least from politicians.

 

What I have failed to see much of is that there are a multitude of contributory factors, some of which are interdependent and some more (but not completely) in isolation. How much of each contributes to the whole is debatable and variable.

 

Some  of the "causes" I've heard of are:

• Sunspot activity
• 'Natural' cycles
• Fossil fuel burning
• Landfill
• Rice
• Farting cows
• Deforestation
• Air pollution
• Depletion of Ozone Layer
• Volcanic eruptions
• Fertilizers
• The Maunder Minimum
• etc
• etc
• etc

Some of these are human based, some not. But each has a contributory effect. 

 

However (from Canada) a comment on the Fossil Fuel Debate

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=609067722473596&set=a.251092048271167.56433.251089648271407&type=1&theater

 

Many arguments are like this.

 

And as for the floods - a comment by some politico that dredging rivers would not have prevented the Somerset Levels floods. Quite - but it probably would have alleviated the effects. Holistc views do not abound in politics, apparently.

 

</off_topic_rant>

[The Stationmaster]

As far as 'global warming' and 'climate change' are concerned there is one important fact - average sea surface temperatures have been generally rising for an extended period and this has been attributed by some sources to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the way the oceans act as a sink for it.  Also what is increasingly being understood is that sea surface temperature is a major driver of weather patterns and weather behaviour - El Nino being probably the best known example of course.  Whether or not this is affecting the Jet Stream I don't know but various reasons for its change of course have been suggested or explained by weather forecasters.  

Link below to the report published by the Met Office  - there is a link within the page to the PDF of the full report

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/uk-storms-and-floods

 

 

As far as electrification in the far west is concerned I have never heard of any proposals in recent (i.e. BR) times although Exeter has occasionally been mentioned as a limit of electrification - mainly of the 3rd rail variety but also occasionally of the 25kv overhead variety and in both cases more of the 'thnking aloud' or pipe dream approach than anything more concrete.  As far as I'm aware the only costed scheme for electrification in the south west was the GWR scheme proposed between the wars which was intended to totally electrify west of Taunton - but even that was I suspect more a case of wishful thinking rather than a proper scheme although potential savings were calculated.

Edited February 9, 2014 by The Stationmaster