East West rail, Bletchley to oxford line

[MidlandRed]

40 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

I can't remember where I saw it, but apparently in the last couple of days, Grant Shapps stated that "if he was in charge" (don't forget he was running for PM, though I don't think he still is), he would cancel EWR to save money!

Not the best informed SoS it appears - he probably doesn’t know half of it’s already built. A couple of weeks back he stated with some conviction “the Government doesn’t own the railways you know”……. well for some bits that’s true, but not Network Rail which is an arms length company under Government ownership. Either that or it was ‘porkies’!! 

Edited July 14, 2022 by MidlandRed

[Mike Storey]

1 hour ago, MidlandRed said:

Not the best informed SoS it appears - he probably doesn’t know half of it’s already built. A couple of weeks back he stated with some conviction “the Government doesn’t own the railways you know”……. well for some bits that’s true, but not Network Rail which is an arms length company under Government ownership. Either that or it was ‘porkies’!! 

 

Difficult not to get into politics here, but, just what does he think Great British Railways and management contracts is about? This was the SoS that brought us the IRP, the "greatest investment in our railways for 100 years", which, of course, adjusted for inflation, it isn't, not even close, once you take out HS2, a scheme planned and partially funded some years earlier.

 

[chrisf]

5 hours ago, MidlandRed said:

Not the best informed SoS it appears 

Nicely put ...

 

Chris

[1E BoY]

Appears that Grant Shapps is calling for the cancellation of the upgrade to the Bletchley - Bedford section and scrapping the construction of the Bedford - Cambridge section. The Aylesbury Parkway - Claydon Junction section is not mentioned.

 

Details are here

 

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/grant-shapps-rail-project-cancelled-24481614 

 

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/transport-secretary-grant-shapps-would-scrap-east-west-rail-9263932/ 

[MidlandRed]

8 minutes ago, 1E BoY said:

Appears that Grant Shapps is calling for the cancellation of the upgrade to the Bletchley - Bedford section and scrapping the construction of the Bedford - Cambridge section. The Aylesbury Parkway - Claydon Junction section is not mentioned.

 

Details are here

 

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/grant-shapps-rail-project-cancelled-24481614 

 

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/transport-secretary-grant-shapps-would-scrap-east-west-rail-9263932/ 

Not sure how that affects the viability of the whole project - however the Bedford to Cambridge section has been somewhat controversial with local residents etc. 

[Mike Storey]

4 hours ago, 1E BoY said:

Appears that Grant Shapps is calling for the cancellation of the upgrade to the Bletchley - Bedford section and scrapping the construction of the Bedford - Cambridge section. The Aylesbury Parkway - Claydon Junction section is not mentioned.

 

Details are here

 

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/grant-shapps-rail-project-cancelled-24481614 

 

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/transport-secretary-grant-shapps-would-scrap-east-west-rail-9263932/ 

 

So, there's yer man, calling for the removal of a major, capital scheme, with a decent CBR and major support throughout politicians, business and most residents (bar those who might be directly disturbed), and that would normally be funded, quite correctly, by long term loans, as contributing to UK plc's economy. So, on an annual basis, not a great saving, either to the Exchequer, or to the country.

 

But that didn't worry him when he cancelled or severely curtailed investment elsewhere. Where do they get these people?

 

 

 

[Northmoor]

41 minutes ago, Mike Storey said:

 

So, there's yer man, calling for the removal of a major, capital scheme, with a decent CBR and major support throughout politicians, business and most residents (bar those who might be directly disturbed), and that would normally be funded, quite correctly, by long term loans, as contributing to UK plc's economy. So, on an annual basis, not a great saving, either to the Exchequer, or to the country.

 

But that didn't worry him when he cancelled or severely curtailed investment elsewhere. Where do they get these people?

As long as I have taken an interest in politics, I have seen undeserving individuals of all parties become MPs, Ministers and higher.

 

Remember that there a significant number of "safe seats" where so long as they are backed by the right party and don't turn up on election day in their underpants outside a primary school, pretty much any numpty can get elected.  This entitles them to a salary that their intellectual abilities would prevent them getting anywhere near earning in any other walk of life.  There are people who wouldn't be trusted to be more than a very junior manager (and many never have been, read their CVs) but they are put in charge of departments with budgets that if they were companies, would put them on the FTSE 100.

 

But hey, we keep electing them!

[Nearholmer]

I think there’s a misunderstanding of cost benefit analysis. It goes like this:

 

1) Calculate whether the scheme could yield a benefit is terms of votes for your party, and if so, roughly how many and where; the,

 

2) Calculate whether the scheme might cost votes to your party, and if so, roughly how many and where.

 

3) Factor the above together, taking particular care over potential affects in marginal constituencies.

 

4) Exclude from consideration all practical benefits and costs of the scheme that will accrue to people who are very unlikely to vote for your party either way, ‘cos they aren’t important.

 

5) make your mind up!

[rodent279]

1 hour ago, Northmoor said:

But hey, we keep electing them!

That may just be the most astute political comment sentiment that I have seen these past few weeks.

Ask not where do they get them from. Ask instead why do we keep electing them?

Edited July 14, 2022 by rodent279

[corneliuslundie]

They say that we get the politicians we deserve, but I didn't know I had ever done anything that awful.

And one can only vote (or not) for those who stand for election. Since no sensible or intelligent person is likely to stand, we have what we have.

Is there a by-election due somewhere on the route of EWR, by any chance?

Jonathan 

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, Northmoor said:

As long as I have taken an interest in politics, I have seen undeserving individuals of all parties become MPs, Ministers and higher.

 

Remember that there a significant number of "safe seats" where so long as they are backed by the right party and don't turn up on election day in their underpants outside a primary school, pretty much any numpty can get elected.  This entitles them to a salary that their intellectual abilities would prevent them getting anywhere near earning in any other walk of life.  There are people who wouldn't be trusted to be more than a very junior manager (and many never have been, read their CVs) but they are put in charge of departments with budgets that if they were companies, would put them on the FTSE 100.

 

But hey, we keep electing them!

We don't have much choice.

We get to vote for somebody whose ethics we may agree or disagree with, but they are able to feather their nest much better by helping their 'financial friends' than they would for the things they actually believe in.

 

We seem to be drifting. Wasn't this about the Oxford-Bedford rail link, which in this environmental age will be diseasel operated?

[lmsforever]

Grant Shapps is doing the dirty work for the Treasury  they do not want a penny spent on projects that provide actual improvements for ordinary people , they are only interested in maybe one or two services that are needed. I must admit the Bedford  Cambridge was a project to far in that it requires green field construction and has caused a great deal of upset to local residents but so would have the quasi motorway/ dual carriageway if built but roads do not seem to have the same reactions.The Oxford Bletchley section is definitely viable especially for freight plus our section to Aylesbury if Shapps does not stop it.  With the cost of fuel and a pretty rotten journey our section is needed especially as buses are poor as well  but I think the DFT are trying to scrap it .The actual work from Bicester eastward is progressing quickly with stations appearing and track being.laid quickly  and around Calvert the crossing of HS2 and EWR is starting to be formed so it looks on time.It will be interesting as what rolling stock Shapps allows to run surely it should be of eco variety such as is being talked about in Scotland it must not be purely diesel this will put future costs upward something we do not want to happen.  But be ready for more interference from above rail is under threat from the DFT and the current strikes are playing into their hands so be carefull for any party in power,ordinary people do not count .

[Ron Ron Ron]

15 hours ago, lmsforever said:

........It will be interesting as what rolling stock Shapps allows to run surely it should be of eco variety such as is being talked about in Scotland.......

 

 

[melmerby]

No No, that's American, too much horsepower as usual!

More like this:

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by melmerby

[Foulounoux]

21 hours ago, Northmoor said:

As long as I have taken an interest in politics, I have seen undeserving individuals of all parties become MPs, Ministers and higher.

 

Remember that there a significant number of "safe seats" where so long as they are backed by the right party and don't turn up on election day in their underpants outside a primary school, pretty much any numpty can get elected.  This entitles them to a salary that their intellectual abilities would prevent them getting anywhere near earning in any other walk of life.  There are people who wouldn't be trusted to be more than a very junior manager (and many never have been, read their CVs) but they are put in charge of departments with budgets that if they were companies, would put them on the FTSE 100.

 

But hey, we keep electing them!

 

I left politics because I could see if I did want to proceed further I would struggle against the central lists full of clone a candidate.  The irony that the introduction of central lists was to get greater diversity and more pressing to avoid dodgy characters becoming MPs ...... Which was clearly a great success 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nile]

On 14/07/2022 at 08:31, stewartingram said:

I can't remember where I saw it, but apparently in the last couple of days, Grant Shapps stated that "if he was in charge" (don't forget he was running for PM, though I don't think he still is), he would cancel EWR to save money!

 

More here .

[VarsityJim]

18 hours ago, lmsforever said:

Grant Shapps is doing the dirty work for the Treasury  they do not want a penny spent on projects that provide actual improvements for ordinary people , they are only interested in maybe one or two services that are needed. I must admit the Bedford  Cambridge was a project to far in that it requires green field construction and has caused a great deal of upset to local residents but so would have the quasi motorway/ dual carriageway if built but roads do not seem to have the same reactions.The Oxford Bletchley section is definitely viable especially for freight plus our section to Aylesbury if Shapps does not stop it.  With the cost of fuel and a pretty rotten journey our section is needed especially as buses are poor as well  but I think the DFT are trying to scrap it .The actual work from Bicester eastward is progressing quickly with stations appearing and track being.laid quickly  and around Calvert the crossing of HS2 and EWR is starting to be formed so it looks on time.It will be interesting as what rolling stock Shapps allows to run surely it should be of eco variety such as is being talked about in Scotland it must not be purely diesel this will put future costs upward something we do not want to happen.  But be ready for more interference from above rail is under threat from the DFT and the current strikes are playing into their hands so be carefull for any party in power,ordinary people do not count .

Surely a new PM will appoint a new transport secretary, so it’s all up in the air anyway?

[stewartingram]

We can but hope. The guy is just a yes man to others. I remember during the pandemic presentations on TV, when GS gave the presentation you could tell he was reading from a script (provided by someone else?), and during the questions afterwards, could only repeat from that script.

[Bernard Lamb]

23 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

I think there’s a misunderstanding of cost benefit analysis. It goes like this:

 

1) Calculate whether the scheme could yield a benefit is terms of votes for your party, and if so, roughly how many and where; the,

 

2) Calculate whether the scheme might cost votes to your party, and if so, roughly how many and where.

 

 

A classic case of that was around 1969.

 

Close Inverurie Locomotive Works. A few dozen voters but most of them not likely to vote the right way and of no consequence if they did or did not. No value in creating new jobs in the area. far better to follow the plan as below.

Built a new government department facility in Milton Keynes rather than Scotland. I think it was something to do with meat certification. Lots of votes from people who are likely to vote the right way.

Bernard

[Chris116]

21 hours ago, Foulounoux said:

 

...... Which was clearly a great success 

 

Otherwise known as a total failure!

[ess1uk]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-62155530

DfT PM to decide 

[Northmoor]

3 hours ago, ess1uk said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-62155530

DfT PM to decide 

An approximate translation of campaigner Mr Harrold's words are, "I won't need to use it so I don't believe the business case can possibly be correct and it's planned to be built near my home, so is definitely a waste of public money".

[1E BoY]

From the BBC piece above

 

Mr Harrold said the East-West company had yet to publish a business case to justify the southern route, but also questioned the continuation of the entire scheme.

He said: "At this time with a lot of cost pressures on government spending, they should be asking, is this value for money?

"Without big cities between Oxford to Cambridge, you've got to question the amount of passenger traffic it will receive, plus the huge subsidy UK rail receives from the taxpayer.

"I don't think the government should be funding something that will be haemorrhaging money."

 

In response

 

The quote from Dr Harrold of Cambridge Approaches is interesting. I am not sure what constitutes a big city but from where I am sitting, the one slap bang in the middle of the project looks quite big to me! Of course, it has now been recognised as a City in its own right, rather than “the designated new city of” which has appeared on signs since the late 1960s.
 

As both South Cambridgeshire and Milton Keynes are both served by BBC East and Anglia Television, I cannot believe that Dr Harrold is not aware of it! 

 

Populations between Oxford & Cambridge (using latest available internet data)

Bicester                 33,154 (2020 estimate) Major developments taking place
Islip                        652 (2011 Census)
Winslow                 4,407  (2011 Census) 
City of Milton Keynes*        287,821   (2021 Census for current Borough)
Bedford                 174,687 (2019 estimate for Borough)
{St Neots^             32,489 (2020 estimate) development area
{Sandy ^                11,657 (2011 Census)
Cambourne **        8,186 (2011 Census)

 

*Awarded City Status as part of Queen Elizabeth II Platinum Jubilee Celebrations
^Original route via Sandy with St. Neots area the preferred option for Bedford – Cambridge
** Preferred option for Bedford – Cambridge 

If the preferred route is followed, then the line will serve over half a million people outside of the populations of Cambridge and Oxford.
The City of Oxford had a population of 162,100 (2021 Census) whilst the City of Cambridge recorded 145,700 (2021 Census) = 307,800. The combined figures for the two university cities are some 19,979 more than that of Milton Keynes.

We should not of course forget that both Oxford and Cambridge have several thousand students in residence during each academic year many of which use public transport to travel to and from university several times a year.
 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by 1E BoY
Duplicate opening paragraph x 3!!

[1E BoY]

By referring to sections two and three and his plan to abandon them in his interview, Grant Shapps as SOS has caused some confusion. Section one, as outlined by East – West Rail themselves, is the already completed line from Oxford to Bicester to join up with the Chiltern Line whilst section two is the now under construction part from Bicester to Bletchley (and the Aylesbury to Claydon Junction section). Network Rail refer this as phase 2 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/railway-upgrade-plan/key-projects/east-west-rail/bicester-to-bletchley-milton-keynes/

 

I like others assumed Mr Shapps was referring to abandoning the Bletchley to Bedford upgrade (section 3) and Bedford to Cambridge (section 4). If he is referring to stopping work on section 2 then the comments are more serious that we thought.

 

Even the rail industry’s own newspaper is reading it as Bicester to Bletchley being under threat https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2022/07/15-uncertainty-grows-over-east-west.html 

 

 

[Nearholmer]

Ah, but if it runs near Dr Hatrold’s back yard, then it’s a bad idea. OK?