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S.A.C Martin
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Fantastic result for Derby this weekend. For the first time we looked like the team that scored more than anyone else in the Championship last season. Just a shame that the press decided to concentrate on the problems at Fulham, and gave little credit to Derby for their attacking prowess in a 5-1 win.

 Two weeks in and no points for QPR, Palace and Burnley. Too early to push the panic button for those teams yet (except Palace), but all Rams fans will hope one of those teams will continue to struggle so much that they will achieve only 10 points or less and rid us of that unwanted record.

 

 

(Edited for factual inaccuracies!! Forgot about Leicester's draw last week)

Edited by andyram
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6th ???

 

I know they play in the same uniform but .......

Ooops! But I bet the Burnley fans (same uniform again) wouldn't mind doing a swap!

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6th, 8th ?? All comes about because, due to Sky(we're going to take over the world), they don't all play on Saturday at 3 o'clock. :umbrage:

 

WHU, Burnley & AV haven't been seen together in the top flight for some time, so easy to get confused.

 

Replace one of the "a's" with a "t" of the AV sponsors and there you have it.  :jester:

 

Rob

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Visited the in-laws this weekend, which (providing it is a home game) means a trip to see Accrington Stanley on the Saturday afternoon. Today's visitors to the Crown Ground (still steadfastly referred to as such by the fans, despite a number of name changes over the years; currently referred to as the StoreFirst Stadium) were Luton Town. The game began brightly, with Stanley scoring two in the first 15 minutes. Then came a tactical switch-round from Luton, and by half-time the score was 2-2. The lack of applause from the Stanley fans at half-time told the whole story, and the interval was awash with predictions of a 4-2 final scoreline - to Luton.

 

In the event, the game remained at 2-2 (the Dreyfus magic continues to be worked - in the seven matches I have attended, Stanley are unbeaten!), but the signs are very worrying.

 

As can be expected for a club with the smallest budget in League 2, the quality was not high. Basic passing was wayward, and more often than not a pass from a Stanley player fell perfectly for a Luton player. There were enough aimless long-ball punts up-field to make Sam Allardyce feel at home, and there was an alarming lack of organisation, especially when defending set-pieces. There was also a lack of width in the team. Some of their best moves was when they passed the ball to the wing, spreading the Luton defence and creating space for their attacking players. In all, they were pretty good for the first 15 minutes or so, then fell away to a standard nothing short of abject for the remaining 75.

 

I'm afraid part of this problem is down to the manager, James Beattie; who sat benignly on the wall by the dug-out as mayhem ensued on the pitch. There was no tactical change when they were being overrun, no exploitation of Luton's narrowness at the back by getting the ball out wide, nor any communication with Stanley's rather ineffective Captain (who did score their rather fortuitous second goal).

 

A special mention to the Referee; who had a stinker. A lack of consistency which meant a tackle made by a Luton player met with a play-on (fair enough), but an identical tackle from a Stanley player brought out the yellow card. Luton's equaliser came from a similarly suspect free-kick decision (at least it wasn't a penalty award, it was only a few feet outside the penalty area!). Free kicks taken literally yards from when the foul took place (one foul took place on the centre line, but he allowed the free-kick to take place at the edge of the centre circle). Basic, careless mistakes. At least they did not ruin a good game...they summed up a shocker.

 

When we left the ground, the mother-in-law asked what I thought Stanley's prospects were this season. My response? Two words; Be Worried... 

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interesting article in the torygraph

 

Arsenal’s unbroken post-war top-flight tenure puts them top of 15 ‘deserved’ PL teams

By Brian Sears

8 August 2014

With the 2014-15 English football season about to begin, and with every fan still at the stage where they can dream that this will be the year, the notion of where a club ‘deserves’ to be is again a topic of relevance.

Up and down the country there will be supporters who will assure you that their team ‘should‘ be in the top four, or top six, or top division, or top two divisions. And there will be others who will assure you their team does not ‘belong’ in the lowly place where they currently reside.

It is uncontroversial enough to say that fans of Manchester United (and City), and Arsenal and Liverpool and Chelsea will believe they should have an excellent shot of finishing in the Premier League’s top four. Some Everton fans too, will probably argue that, and those of Spurs.

And there will be plenty from other clubs who swear their club’s ‘rightful’ place is in the Premier League. Leeds fans will be most likely loudest on this subject (with some justification). Those who support Blackburn and Wolves, both Sheffield clubs and Middlesbrough and Derby will also make claims.

Lower down the divisions, Coventry fans will tell you they really shouldn’t be in the third tier, and lower still, Portsmouth, twice champions of England, can argue that really, all things being equal, they should be at least two divisions higher.

Before we use one method to explore where clubs ‘should’ be playing, it is worth looking at a historic league table, from 40 years ago, the 1974-75 season, below. It is notable not only for the absence of Manchester United, and for the presence of the likes of Carlisle and Luton, but also for how many of the same names will contest the forthcoming 2014-15 Premier League; twelve of the same teams who contested the 1974-75 top division.

Article continues below

1974-75 First Division final table, England

First-Div-1974-75.jpg

.

The very essence of the English league pyramid system is that clubs can go up and down. Any team can aspire to move from the non-league to the top division, and perhaps even Europe. Wigan in recent decades proved they could make just such a move.

And as was described in some detail on this website last year – link to the relevant article here – participating in the Premier League is on the verge of being a ‘majority experience’ for the professional football clubs of England. The ‘breakaway’ league, which began in 1992-93, has now featured 46 of the current 92 teams from England’s top divisions for at least one season each. The fact that half of all clubs have tasted the top division, even in this ‘monied era’ over the past 22 years, shows that upward mobility remains possible.

Yet most clubs remain fairly ‘stable’ in where they play their football. There is a certain order of dominance where the ‘big’ clubs tend to play high up, and achieve titles and cup wins, and the ‘small’ clubs play lower down, only now and again punching above their level.

In an attempt to measure this, and also highlight which clubs might justifiably show they are currently punching ‘above their weight’, or are temporarily below where ‘they should be’, we have looked at the post-war experiences of all 92 current clubs, specifically which division each club has played in for each of the completed 68 post-war seasons. (Post-war is used simply because it is one unbroken stretch of football history).

We have allocated each club four ‘pedigree points’ for each season spent in the top tier of English football, since 1946-47 (Premier League now, old First Division), and three points for each season in the second tier (Championship now, old First Division, even older Second Division), and two points for each third-tier season and one point for each fourth-tier season.

Arsenal, with an unbroken run of 68 years in the top division, have most points, followed by Manchester United, Everton, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester City. Using this measurement, those eight clubs are the eight clubs with the highest post-war ‘pedigree’.

And how indicative of success is such ‘pedigree’? Well seven of those eight finished in the Premier League top eight last season, Villa being the only ones who did not. So actually, on a broad level, such ‘pedigree’ is indicative.

In the first table below, we show how 15 of the 20 clubs for the 2014-15 Premier League season ‘deserve’ by their post-war ‘pedigree’ to be in the top division. This same graphic shows how Burnley, QPR, Crystal Palace, Hull and Swansea are all punching above their historical pedigree to be there – a commendable thing for those clubs.

Article continues below

PL-2014-15-pedigree.jpg

 .

The graphic shows where each club finished in the league (1 to 92) last season; where their ‘pedigree’ says they ‘should’; and the difference. A difference in single digits is really neither here nor there. That Palace, Hull and Swansea finished 23, 28 and 36 places about their ‘natural’ post-war level is especially commendable.

Looking at the 2014-15 Championship (below), the post-war pedigrees of the clubs suggests that Leeds, Wolves, Forest, Middlesbrough and Birmingham should be in the Premier League. Subsequently their finishing positions last season were respectively 22, 30, 15, 15 and 22 places worse than they ‘should’ have been. At the other end of the Championship, the likes of Bournemouth and Wigan are punching well above their historic ‘weight’ just to be in the second tier this coming season, let alone any higher.

Article continues below

Champ-2014-14-pedigree.jpg

.

Moving down further, we see that Coventry and Sheffield United are the two teams clearly below their ‘level’ in League One, and that Portsmouth, Luton and Plymouth are below where they should be in League Two. It will be no surprise whatsoever if multiple clubs across the leagues who are in divisions above and below where they ‘should’ be don’t ‘correct’ that via promotion or relegation this coming season. In fact it would be a surprise if we didn’t see at least a handful of those clubs moving.

Article continues below

League-One-14-15-pedigree.jpg

.League-Two-2014-15-pedigree.jpg

.

It goes without saying there are multiple ways you can measure where a club ‘should’ be playing. The exercise above is just one method. This website has previously considered how a ‘deserved’ Premier League might be made up using multiple different factors, such as trophies or ground capacity. Link here.

Equally one might average out the finishing positions for all the clubs over 68 years. In that respect you would find Manchester United have a higher average finish position than any club: 5th place on average over 68 seasons. Arsenal are next best in 6th on average, then Liverpool in 7th, Tottenham in 10th, Everton in 11th, Chelsea in 12th, Aston Villa in 14th and Manchester City in 15th. The same eight clubs, in other words, who also have the best ‘pedigrees’ by division.

You could consider 100 years, or 130-plus back to the start of the league in England, or 22 years for the Premier League. You could find all sorts of patterns. And yet nothing, definitively, will tell you, for sure, what will happen this season. Which is the beauty of the game. Today – anything can still happen.

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What happened to MotD last night? Got home from a late shift and thought I'd watch City's game but no sign of MotD... Have they stopped the Monday night ones now or will they show it later in the week?

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BBC do not schedule a MOTD on a Monday. They have a slot on a Saturday night and MOTD2 on a Sunday. On a few special occasions they will defer the latter programme to a Monday night to take in important games as well as the Sunday highlights. As there was a MOTD2 on Sunday I am guessing they did not consider City V Liverpool too important at this very early stage of the season.

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I'm sure I've seen the Monday night matches shown on their own slot on Mondays before, even with the Sat and Sun slots as well, must have been dreaming then!

 

Bet if it had been United playing they'd have shown it though...

Edited by Hobby
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interesting article in the torygraph

 

Arsenal’s unbroken post-war top-flight tenure puts them top of 15 ‘deserved’ PL teams

By Brian Sears

8 August 2014

With the 2014-15 English football season about to begin, and with every fan still at the stage where they can dream that this will be the year, the notion of where a club ‘deserves’ to be is again a topic of relevance.

Up and down the country there will be supporters who will assure you that their team ‘should‘ be in the top four, or top six, or top division, or top two divisions. And there will be others who will assure you their team does not ‘belong’ in the lowly place where they currently reside.

It is uncontroversial enough to say that fans of Manchester United (and City), and Arsenal and Liverpool and Chelsea will believe they should have an excellent shot of finishing in the Premier League’s top four. Some Everton fans too, will probably argue that, and those of Spurs.

And there will be plenty from other clubs who swear their club’s ‘rightful’ place is in the Premier League. Leeds fans will be most likely loudest on this subject (with some justification). Those who support Blackburn and Wolves, both Sheffield clubs and Middlesbrough and Derby will also make claims.

Lower down the divisions, Coventry fans will tell you they really shouldn’t be in the third tier, and lower still, Portsmouth, twice champions of England, can argue that really, all things being equal, they should be at least two divisions higher.

Before we use one method to explore where clubs ‘should’ be playing, it is worth looking at a historic league table, from 40 years ago, the 1974-75 season, below. It is notable not only for the absence of Manchester United, and for the presence of the likes of Carlisle and Luton, but also for how many of the same names will contest the forthcoming 2014-15 Premier League; twelve of the same teams who contested the 1974-75 top division.

Article continues below

1974-75 First Division final table, England

First-Div-1974-75.jpg

.

The very essence of the English league pyramid system is that clubs can go up and down. Any team can aspire to move from the non-league to the top division, and perhaps even Europe. Wigan in recent decades proved they could make just such a move.

And as was described in some detail on this website last year – link to the relevant article here – participating in the Premier League is on the verge of being a ‘majority experience’ for the professional football clubs of England. The ‘breakaway’ league, which began in 1992-93, has now featured 46 of the current 92 teams from England’s top divisions for at least one season each. The fact that half of all clubs have tasted the top division, even in this ‘monied era’ over the past 22 years, shows that upward mobility remains possible.

Yet most clubs remain fairly ‘stable’ in where they play their football. There is a certain order of dominance where the ‘big’ clubs tend to play high up, and achieve titles and cup wins, and the ‘small’ clubs play lower down, only now and again punching above their level.

In an attempt to measure this, and also highlight which clubs might justifiably show they are currently punching ‘above their weight’, or are temporarily below where ‘they should be’, we have looked at the post-war experiences of all 92 current clubs, specifically which division each club has played in for each of the completed 68 post-war seasons. (Post-war is used simply because it is one unbroken stretch of football history).

We have allocated each club four ‘pedigree points’ for each season spent in the top tier of English football, since 1946-47 (Premier League now, old First Division), and three points for each season in the second tier (Championship now, old First Division, even older Second Division), and two points for each third-tier season and one point for each fourth-tier season.

Arsenal, with an unbroken run of 68 years in the top division, have most points, followed by Manchester United, Everton, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester City. Using this measurement, those eight clubs are the eight clubs with the highest post-war ‘pedigree’.

And how indicative of success is such ‘pedigree’? Well seven of those eight finished in the Premier League top eight last season, Villa being the only ones who did not. So actually, on a broad level, such ‘pedigree’ is indicative.

In the first table below, we show how 15 of the 20 clubs for the 2014-15 Premier League season ‘deserve’ by their post-war ‘pedigree’ to be in the top division. This same graphic shows how Burnley, QPR, Crystal Palace, Hull and Swansea are all punching above their historical pedigree to be there – a commendable thing for those clubs.

Article continues below

PL-2014-15-pedigree.jpg

 .

The graphic shows where each club finished in the league (1 to 92) last season; where their ‘pedigree’ says they ‘should’; and the difference. A difference in single digits is really neither here nor there. That Palace, Hull and Swansea finished 23, 28 and 36 places about their ‘natural’ post-war level is especially commendable.

Looking at the 2014-15 Championship (below), the post-war pedigrees of the clubs suggests that Leeds, Wolves, Forest, Middlesbrough and Birmingham should be in the Premier League. Subsequently their finishing positions last season were respectively 22, 30, 15, 15 and 22 places worse than they ‘should’ have been. At the other end of the Championship, the likes of Bournemouth and Wigan are punching well above their historic ‘weight’ just to be in the second tier this coming season, let alone any higher.

Article continues below

Champ-2014-14-pedigree.jpg

.

Moving down further, we see that Coventry and Sheffield United are the two teams clearly below their ‘level’ in League One, and that Portsmouth, Luton and Plymouth are below where they should be in League Two. It will be no surprise whatsoever if multiple clubs across the leagues who are in divisions above and below where they ‘should’ be don’t ‘correct’ that via promotion or relegation this coming season. In fact it would be a surprise if we didn’t see at least a handful of those clubs moving.

Article continues below

League-One-14-15-pedigree.jpg

.League-Two-2014-15-pedigree.jpg

.

It goes without saying there are multiple ways you can measure where a club ‘should’ be playing. The exercise above is just one method. This website has previously considered how a ‘deserved’ Premier League might be made up using multiple different factors, such as trophies or ground capacity. Link here.

Equally one might average out the finishing positions for all the clubs over 68 years. In that respect you would find Manchester United have a higher average finish position than any club: 5th place on average over 68 seasons. Arsenal are next best in 6th on average, then Liverpool in 7th, Tottenham in 10th, Everton in 11th, Chelsea in 12th, Aston Villa in 14th and Manchester City in 15th. The same eight clubs, in other words, who also have the best ‘pedigrees’ by division.

You could consider 100 years, or 130-plus back to the start of the league in England, or 22 years for the Premier League. You could find all sorts of patterns. And yet nothing, definitively, will tell you, for sure, what will happen this season. Which is the beauty of the game. Today – anything can still happen.

 

 

Interesting stuff. In talking about the 'top eight' it also reflects my comments in #4635 about Aston Villa as the true 'sleeping giant' of the English game. I watched their game on BT on Saturday against Newcastle and I can't see that there is much likely to change in the 'sleeping' tag this season. Back in the early seventies they were relegated to the old Third Division and a couple of friends who were Villa fans had a high old time for a season visiting lots of grounds that they had never been to before. This was, of course, just a prelude to them in 1981 winning the League Championship and, subsequently,  the European Cup.

 

David

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interesting article in the torygraph

 

Arsenal’s unbroken post-war top-flight tenure puts them top of 15 ‘deserved’ PL teams

By Brian Sears

8 August 2014

With the 2014-15 English football season about to begin, and with every fan still at the stage where they can dream that this will be the year, the notion of where a club ‘deserves’ to be is again a topic of relevance.

Up and down the country there will be supporters who will assure you that their team ‘should‘ be in the top four, or top six, or top division, or top two divisions. And there will be others who will assure you their team does not ‘belong’ in the lowly place where they currently reside.

It is uncontroversial enough to say that fans of Manchester United (and City), and Arsenal and Liverpool and Chelsea will believe they should have an excellent shot of finishing in the Premier League’s top four. Some Everton fans too, will probably argue that, and those of Spurs.

And there will be plenty from other clubs who swear their club’s ‘rightful’ place is in the Premier League. Leeds fans will be most likely loudest on this subject (with some justification). Those who support Blackburn and Wolves, both Sheffield clubs and Middlesbrough and Derby will also make claims.

Lower down the divisions, Coventry fans will tell you they really shouldn’t be in the third tier, and lower still, Portsmouth, twice champions of England, can argue that really, all things being equal, they should be at least two divisions higher.

Before we use one method to explore where clubs ‘should’ be playing, it is worth looking at a historic league table, from 40 years ago, the 1974-75 season, below. It is notable not only for the absence of Manchester United, and for the presence of the likes of Carlisle and Luton, but also for how many of the same names will contest the forthcoming 2014-15 Premier League; twelve of the same teams who contested the 1974-75 top division.

Article continues below

1974-75 First Division final table, England

First-Div-1974-75.jpg

.

 

The way Man Utd are playing, with any luck they'll be absent again next season! Perhaps Moyes wasn't the problem?

 

I DO hope Chelsea don't repeat that feat of only 9 wins though.

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Andyram

 

What about Esteban Fuertes for your worst Derby team players. Complete

With his dodgy passport!

Fair point about Fuertes and his fake passport. He certainly cost us money. I did consider him for the worst XI but concluded that he was actually a better player than those I picked. Had he remained in the country I am sure he would have scored plenty of goals for us.

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