Early Risers.

[Ozexpatriate]

People who look at trends in pandemic data might be interested in the following snapshot of CoViD-19 fatalities in Oregon:

The dashboard can be found by searching for "oregon covid cases" in a popular search engine.

 

It struck me that the two large peaks in the seven day average were, respectively, 23 days after Thanksgiving and 22 days after Christmas.

 

While I am well aware of the distinctions between correlation, causality and coincidence, this result is very suggestive to me of a relationship between cross-generational family gatherings and CoViD-19 outcomes (at least locally). It could of course be entirely coincidental. National data is not the same but does exhibit some similar modality.

 

For what it's worth, the smaller, earlier peak is 39 days after Halloween, which this year was not celebrated with customary enthusiasm. Happily cases are trending mostly down, but are still at the elevated levels experienced in the late Autumn. To date, Oregon has suffered about a third (per capita) the fatalities of the national average.

 

Locally the vaccination process is sadly chaotic. There are simply not enough doses. Through the pandemic, groups have lobbied and/or sued the Governor for not reopening schools to in-student attendance and she responded by advancing educators ahead of the aged in the vaccination queue. (Health care providers and residents of nursing homes were at the head of the queue and even this group is not yet fully vaccinated.)

[pH]

15 minutes ago, Chris116 said:

Sadly postage in the other direction is similarly outrageous! I have been put of a number of items on eBay from the US due to the postage.

Even the cost of shipping from the US to Canada seems to have gone up significantly recently. $25 items on the well-known auction site can cost twice that once shipping is included. 

 

I used to be able to get internal US rates by getting items shipped to parcel receiving outfits just over the border in Washington state. But with the  Canada/US border closed to all but essential traffic, that’s now out. As an aside, I wonder how many of them will still be in business when it re-opens, whenever that might be.

 

And I’m currently “in negotiations” with UPS over an invoice for about $23US for preparation of customs documents to pay import charges of  $2.54!

[PhilJ W]

Evening all from Estuary-Land. Peter BB mentioned the traveller problems we had here in Basildon. The land involved has not been built on since as it is designated green belt. The travellers were claiming legal aid and then it was discovered the the woman in who was named as the defendant owned a property in Ireland valued at £300,000. The defendant was switched to her 18 year old son who didn't own any property so they carried on getting legal aid. Why the court didn't take action over this I don't know. It was an open and shut case anyway, they had built on green belt land without planning permission and in the end the site was cleared and compulsory purchased by the council. The major cause IMHO was the travellers legal representatives milking the legal aid system. Back in the mid 70's legislation was passed making it compulsory for all councils to provide sites for travellers. The London borough that I worked for did so. The first tenants were genuine Romanies, the surnames were either Smith or Lee and for about six months everything was OK. Then there was an altercation and it turned out that another group of (none Romany) travellers had tried to take over the site and the caretaker, one of the original tenants, was in hospital having shotgun pellets removed from his leg! The site was so badly damaged that it had to be closed for repairs and it was never re-opened. 

[newbryford]

18 minutes ago, Chris116 said:

Sadly postage in the other direction is similarly outrageous! I have been put of a number of items on eBay from the US due to the postage.

 

I must make good use of my model railway mules [*] whilst I can.

 

[*] Niece at college in the US who normally comes home 2-3 times each year and Junior NB who has made a trip each year to visit her.

 

She finished her degree late last year, but decided to stay on to her Masters. Due to travel restrictions, she didn't come home for Christmas.

[PhilJ W]

1 hour ago, Ian Abel said:

Is the government over there trying to fund leaving the EU by jacking up the postage fees???

They're NOW back in stock at various places, I was notified by one I was on the waiting list at, and having used Peters Spares many times in the past, fired up my account and WAS going to order said item.

Get to checkout, and 2 sets at a tenner (price less VAT) each sounded great, UNTIL, postage to the US - FORTY !#@$!#$!@#$ QUID!!!

What the hell!?!?!?! 

 

Alternative solution found thanks to ER personnel

 

 

30 minutes ago, Chris116 said:

Sadly postage in the other direction is similarly outrageous! I have been put of a number of items on eBay from the US due to the postage.

 

4 minutes ago, pH said:

Even the cost of shipping from the US to Canada seems to have gone up significantly recently. $25 items on the well-known auction site can cost twice that once shipping is included. 

 

I used to be able to get internal US rates by getting items shipped to parcel receiving outfits just over the border in Washington state. But with the  Canada/US border closed to all but essential traffic, that’s now out. As an aside, I wonder how many of them will still be in business when it re-opens, whenever that might be.

 

And I’m currently “in negotiations” with UPS over an invoice for about $23US for preparation of customs documents to pay import charges of  $2.54!

Postage between the EU and the UK has increased considerably since we left the EU. An item that would normally cost £3:90 to post is now in the region of £15, thanks a million Boris.

[BSW01]

36 minutes ago, Chris116 said:

Sadly postage in the other direction is similarly outrageous! I have been put of a number of items on eBay from the US due to the postage.

Not to mention the tax put on at the (not by the) post office! 

[J. S. Bach]

16 hours ago, Barry O said:

 ...snip... doesn't time fly when you are having fun? ...snip...

Try and enjoy your day today!

Baz

"Time is fun when you are having flies."  said the frog!

[Barry O]

Goodnight all!

Baz

[PeterBB]

17 minutes ago, PhilJ W said:

 

 

Postage between the EU and the UK has increased considerably since we left the EU. An item that would normally cost £3:90 to post is now in the region of £15, thanks a million Boris.

Cannot agree - the EU masters rather than the people of Europe are really responsible not just Boris.

[PhilJ W]

1 minute ago, PeterBB said:

Cannot agree - the EU masters rather than the people of Europe are really responsible not just Boris.

There is an agreement on postage rates within the EU that means that the postage would be the same for sending post throughout the EU as it was within a given country. Now we are a none EU country international rates apply.

[tigerburnie]

I shall do my level best to buy nothing directly from outside of the UK, buying British will be a tad difficult as we make very little here anymore since someone decided we could actually get by actually being a nation of shop keepers. I shall sleep soundly knowing that it would seem there are just as many irritated on the far side of the North Sea/English channel and the politicians are not actually representing any of us very well. Glad I'm retired and don't have to worry any more about finding useful employment, I fear for my kids and grandkids though, we have made a right pigs ear of this part of the planet over the last 50 years or so , someone will no doubt be telling us soon that we've never had it so good..........................

G'night all.

[Erichill16]

Evening All,

Trip to the Fox Valley fo some supplies but came back without raspberry vodka, gf Pironi and pickled onions. Then a bit of domestic chores, a walk and a proper non food fusion tea of fish and chips and brown ale. Just watched the now mandatory two films.

Part time pharmacist phoned and reminded me of upcoming work I need to do. I don’t need reminding, I just can’t find the enthusiasm to do it. Another case of maybe tomorrow?
Was think of doing something that involved parallel strips of metal but the Old Speckled Hen put me off. Another case of maybe tomorrow.

Goodnight,

Robert

[newbryford]

16 minutes ago, PhilJ W said:

There is an agreement on postage rates within the EU that means that the postage would be the same for sending post throughout the EU as it was within a given country. Now we are a none EU country international rates apply.

 

?? It always cost us more at work to send a parcel to EU compared to one within the UK.

 

There has been a general price hike in international postage/courier costs anyway in the past few months as a result of Covid-19.

Much of it is carried on scheduled passenger flights. Less flights now, but still as much need for airfreight so space is at a premium and the couriers are now reflecting this in their costs.

It'll probably be 3-4 years at least before air travel is anywhere near 2019 levels.

[Erichill16]

6 hours ago, polybear said:

 

 

Where do Bears fit into the pecking order?

 

Bear can have mine, as per my later post regarding needles.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Erichill16
Spelling

[PhilJ W]

Goodnight all.

[BSW01]

Good evening everyone 

 

The rain finally stopped falling from the sky mid morning, but everywhere is still very wet, one of the large puddles in the back garden has gone. However, the one closest to the workshop is still there, thankfully it is only about 1-2 inches deep, but it’s about 3 ft square and right beside the path! But, this evening around 7 o’clock it started to rain again, if it carries on at this rate, the whole back garden will be one huge puddle by the morning!

 

Anyway, I’ve spent 75% of the day amending the layout plans, I must admit, it’s been quite nice sitting at the dining room table and drawing. The yard where the turntable is to be located is done, I’ve just got to finish the station and goods yard areas. But I do have tomorrow afternoon to hopefully sort that out. 

 

Using the easel to rest the drawing board on has certainly done the trick, there’s been no complaints from my back at all, I think this is the way forward in future. There’s a photo below showing the whole process underway. I acquired the drawing board (A3 size) of somebody who was retiring and he didn’t think he would use it at home and CAD was becoming more popular at the office. It was going to be chucked in the skip if nobody wanted it, so I took it off his hands. I thought is was criminal for such good equipment to be just thrown away. Along with the drawing board I got a selection of stencils, square, round, ellipses and a part set of French curves, although I already had a set of the later, so a couple are duplicated. The easel is adjustable and has 4 settings, 75, 60, 45 and 30 degrees. I found that the most comfortable position for drawing (and painting) to be 60 degrees, that’s how it is set up below. The horizontal rule is lockable and the L shaped one on the left is a slide fit above or below the horizontal rule and has lockable set angles, 0, 12.5, 30, 45, 60, and 75 degrees. 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by BSW01

[BSW01]

Goodnight all 

[The Stationmaster]

44 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

?? It always cost us more at work to send a parcel to EU compared to one within the UK.

 

There has been a general price hike in international postage/courier costs anyway in the past few months as a result of Covid-19.

Much of it is carried on scheduled passenger flights. Less flights now, but still as much need for airfreight so space is at a premium and the couriers are now reflecting this in their costs.

It'll probably be 3-4 years at least before air travel is anywhere near 2019 levels.

International long haul airfreight costs have rocketed and as you say that is entirely down to Covid.  Exactly the same has happened with shipping rates,  It is now happening with road haulage rates from the into the UK from the EU but that might only be a blip as people try to understand how to deal with Customs paperwork which is currently allegedly putting people off exporting and so reducing the opportunities for back loads.

[The Stationmaster]

G'night all

[J. S. Bach]

11 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

received today by Mrs Stationmaster from her friend who is a past Mayor of Saltash.  Reportedly being widely circulated in Cornwall

 

That image made me think of Jimmy Carter.

[J. S. Bach]

Night Owl from the Piedmont.

[chrisf]

Greetings one and all

 

According to the local rag, one of the vaccination centres in Bedford cancelled all appointments this week due to supply problems.  Why does this come as no surprise?  Likewise there is still no sign of my invitation to make an appointment to receive a jab.  Perhaps the relevant bit of the NHS should enlist the aid of those kind people who bombard us with junk mail.  There is a real possibility of me dying of shock when it does arrive.

 

Never mind, there are other things to anticipate.  Two CDs are somewhere in the postal system bound for my letterbox - the new one from Ninebarrow, a rather fine duo from the West of England, and the double CD of a tribute concert recorded at Towersey Festival that I thought I had already bought.  There is also a book that I have bought from the publishers via Amazon rather than from the world-dominating conglomerate itself.  I loathe being ensnared in Amazon Prime and if choosing the means of purchase that I have means more work for my beleagured friend Harry, so be it.

 

An e-mail from Railbookers infuriated me.  Once again they are trying to entice the unwary into booking holidays.  Don't they know that there's a pandemic on and that overseas travel is off the agenda for the foreseeable future?  I would be happy to use them again, for they did a good job of booking the tickets for the trip to Prague and Berlin that Bill Bishop and I enjoyed in 2019, but I do not want to find myself having to cancel a trip that I had on ly just booked.   These are not happy times.

 

Best wishes to all

 

Chris  

[jamie92208]

Good moaning from windy corner, or that's how it was last night. It rained most of yesterday and I did not a lot, but did manage to finish off and email an article.  Rain had corrupted the TV recording of The Bay so we watched some Netflix instead. That was after fish and chips from thevmobile chippy. The stew has been postponed till tonight.

 

I'm going to have a go at some tile cutting today to try and do some boxing in of pipes in the bathroom.  I've made the box out of ply but need to tile it, then fix it in place with silicon.  After that there will no doubt be some unspecified potterring.

 

The question of postage etc is difficult. We can get and send letters to and from the UK and magazine delivery seems to be fine, even from the US.  However parcels are an unknown quantity at the moment.  Fortunately  I don't need much modelling stuff in the short term. The shelves of shame contain enough boxes to keep me busy for many years. However, odds and ends such as paint or tools could be tricky with the new customs regs. Fortunately  again, a friend and I stocked up on BA nuts and bolts in November with a joint purchase.  With the customs boorder that now exists, the purchase of a new loco kit could be awkward.  When we do eventually  get over to the UK, currently booked for May, we will have to be careful what we bring back, food wise.

 

Anyway, I'll keep taking the tablets and hope that real duty free prices on Scottish Medecine will be available. If all else fails there is always plenty of M Balluets Excellent  Cognac.

 

Regards to all.

 

Jamie

[Barry O]

Ey up!

 

Off to see my optician later for another eye scan. He reckons he will find out how thick my corneas are...probably as thick as the rest of me?

 

Postage anywhere at the moment is a lot hit and miss. Royal Mail have lost 3 parcels recently.. pah!

 

Mugatea awaits so TTFN.

 

Stay safe! Keep in touch!

Baz

Baz

[TheQ]

Mooring awl, Inner Temple Hare.. and it is Moorings.. The driveway is deeper in water than I've ever seen it before, and it's gravel...

 

4 hours +1 hour  +1 hour + 1 hour sleep with short breaks between. Every time I woke up the side I was lying on was painful. That and forepaws complaining of the rain again..

 

We have a couple of Drawing boards, one which is A2  has swing down legs on the back to sit on a table at any angle you like from Horizontal to Vertical.

The other which is A3 has a ABS box under designed for sitting on your lap or table, the lid forms the drawing board again it can be anywhere from vertical to horizontal.

The box is big enough for A3 paper and a variety of drawing tools.. That at the moment has the drawing of the boat on it..  I must update that with the final keel, though it's not too different from what is drawn on there at the moment. Then I need to do some proper drawings of the trailer,  as the larger size will reveal things not in my A5 sketch pad..

 

Out local Vaccination centre was open again yesterday but didn't seem too busy.. I'm still worried about those trying to get groups of people pushed up the list. Teachers Police, Meat packers, Footballers... When those over sixty and classed as vulnerable haven't even been started yet, as we are group 6.

 

I've suspended buying anything from outside the UK until things both B and C are sorted. Another worry is if fishface gets her way the EU will insist on a full border between Scotland and England... 

 

Anyway.. Todays shunt has warmed up..

 

Time to type some numbers..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by TheQ