Early Risers.

[Happy Hippo]

10 minutes ago, PhilJ W said:

Just had a visit from the plod re. the scooter scrote. He won't be troubling the neighbourhood for a while now and they will not now require a statement. Saturday evening he was doing his thing when he ran into a van door. It was dark, he was dressed in dark clothing and the scooter was painted black and of course no lights. Herpes delivery driver in a hurry and you can guess the rest. Said scrote is now in hospital with a broken collar bone and fractured kneecap. They won't be prosecuting and when I asked if the scooter was going to be crushed the answer was it already is.

How to really lighten a grumpy old man's day.

 

Karma...

 

Now calmer

[grandadbob]

Good morning all,

Dry here with one or two hints of blue sky appearing but frequent showers are forecast later.

Many congratulations to Dom.

Not much happened here over the weekend apart from me getting p!ssed off with all the fireworks.  Still going after midnight on Saturday not far away and we even heard some last night.

I went for a brief walk earlier to pick up some bread from our little local bakery.  I managed to resist their cream doughnuts which are huge but did come away with an apple turnover.

I've just managed to get hold of Sav our local friendly boiler engineer and our overdue annual boiler service has now been arranged for Wednesday.

The Boss is doing domestic stuff and wants me out of the way so has suggested I go to the building at the end of the garden.  Having calmed down from the other day I may do just that.

Looking forward a few days the Rugby Autumn Nations Cup starts on Friday.  Amazon Prime (which I've got)  have the main broadcast rights but some games will be shown on Channel 4.  This of course will make Bobby a Happy Bunny! 

Have a good one,

Bob.

 

Edited November 9, 2020 by grandadbob

[The Stationmaster]

Morning all,

 

Congratulations Dom and family.  I was told many years ago it takes a man to make a girl so you'll now be twice the man.

 

After last night's fist & mog - which reduced visibility to about 150 yards the weather has changed a bit.  So this morning we have the usual thin seasonal mist down in the valley and 'orrible damp drizzly rain up here although currently it seems to be taking a rest.  Only a few fireworks last night and not too near so their catships were not upset apart from Charlie coming charging in from outside when he heard the first explosion but he soon calmed down.  We occasionally get some at Diwali but I think the next excuse is going to be the end of Lockdown 2 and then there will be usual Christmas period series of explosions by those who are too impatient to wait for New Years Eve.  

 

One of our sycamores now has the leaves starting to turn and fall but one of the others still has mainly green leaves.  The advice on 'Gardeners Question Time' yesterday was to leave the leaves on the ground as that is good for insects etc (although in my experience it is also very good at killing lawn grass if they stay there for long enough).

 

Great to hear that the scooter riding scrote met a just end to his activities and broken kneecaps are not the easiest of things to heal so he might be recognisable by the way he walks for some time to come.  No doubt it will all be somebody else's fault and regrettably his fate is unlikely to serve as an example to others of similar habits.

 

Have a good day folks and stay safe.

[NGT6 1315]

2 hours ago, PhilJ W said:

Just had a visit from the plod re. the scooter scrote. He won't be troubling the neighbourhood for a while now and they will not now require a statement. Saturday evening he was doing his thing when he ran into a van door. It was dark, he was dressed in dark clothing and the scooter was painted black and of course no lights. Herpes delivery driver in a hurry and you can guess the rest. Said scrote is now in hospital with a broken collar bone and fractured kneecap. They won't be prosecuting and when I asked if the scooter was going to be crushed the answer was it already is.

There does appear to be such a thing as karma, after all. Now, I do wonder how many of those motoring Stu Peids us tram folks have to put up with far too frequently may be dealt their share of poetic justice without us ever knowing...

 

Thank you all for your congratulations.

[iL Dottore]

Good News, Boys & Girls.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

And let the devil take the Anti-vaxxers....

[The Stationmaster]

29 minutes ago, iL Dottore said:

Good News, Boys & Girls.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

And let the devil take the Anti-vaxxers....

But what do the numbers in that article mean?  In one place the trial involved 43,000 people.  But it then goes on to say  that so far 94 people in the trial  have become infected with Cov19 (which is three times more than expected) but the analysis shows that 90% had not received the vaccine.  90% of which number - 43,000 or 90% of the 94 who have become infected?   It then says that implies that no more than 8 people (out of 94) had received the vaccine which is a nonsense if you compare that with the statement that the vaccine is 90% effective.    What they don't report is the number of people in that group of 94 who had received the vaccine and the number who hadn't received the vaccine - surely only that data would give a theoretical effectiveness figure for the vaccine, albeit from a very small sample

 

Looks like they need to hire John Coombe Barton (probably at the Guarniad?) to present their numbers for them.  

[Coombe Barton]

1 minute ago, The Stationmaster said:

Looks like they need to hire John Coombe Barton (probably at the Guarniad?) to present their numbers for them.  

ARRRGGGGHHHHHHHH!

[TheQ]

3 minutes ago, Coombe Barton said:

ARRRGGGGHHHHHHHH!

did you spell that right?

 

[Gwiwer]

3 hours ago, PhilJ W said:

it made me think of Rick's neighbours.

Ah yes   Though there are aspects of their lives I prefer to not think too much about!  

 

Morning all.  OK it's afternoon but who's counting in the world right now?  A surprisingly mild if dull morning at the House of Fun was shared by the currently-usual number of visitors; there doesn't appear to be any meaningful change in our workload other than perhaps a slight reduction of the "buggy-brigade" later in the morning.  Persons arrive from and depart to Gatwick laden with suitcases; small numbers but more than was the case in Lockdown 1.0 when everything stopped.  Children go to school.  Students go to university.  Workers go to work and the unemployed go to where ever they are off to.  You wouldn't know there was anything different to last week.  

 

Two Good Things have emerged in the past few minutes.  One is the news on the Pfizer vaccine.  The other is that hospitalised friend remains with us and despite being under the oncologist has a g-i problem rather than a C-one.  It may be related to his treatment and he may have quite a way before he's out of the woods but I opened the email expecting to read something different ..... 

 

SWMBO will be updated on the vaccine news when she has a break in WFH.  She typically has back-to-back meetings on a Monday but I expect to be able to improve her mood and outlook from the doom and gloom to which we have become accustomed and which hangs over her (and rubs off on me) like a large rain-cloud.  

 

I am required to furtle through the photographic collection this afternoon for two publications.  One request arrived last night with a deadline of today!!!  I know we complain of having little enough we can do but hey - it takes a while to go through many years-worth of files in search of suitable material.  Even the index (in database format) cannot search as the human eye can.

 

I must away.  There will be muggertee later.  Stay well.   

[polybear]

3 hours ago, PhilJ W said:

Covid itself is killing off a lot of deniers. I Googled 'Covid deniers killed by Covid-19' and there were too many to count. Most seemed to be in the USA and a lot of those were apparently following the line taken by a certain ex-president. I can now see some of their families reaching for a lawyer.

 

I'd pay money to watch that court case.  Sounds like a job for Erin Brockovich.....

 

2 hours ago, New Haven Neil said:

Debs has a few days off work trying to use up annual leave.  The CEO has said staff must take care of themselves and take leave, preferably two weeks, Debs applied and her departmental (not immediate) manager would only let her have three days......what is that about?  She is becoming very dissatisfied with her current departmental manager, I think a parting of the ways is on the cards.  Her immediate manager feels the same, he is pi  fed up with being over-ruled, with constantly moving goalposts - it is complicated work, data protection within NHS/DSC, made much harder by this behaviour.

 

Sounds like HR should intervene.  Either that, or Departmental Nob would benefit from a visit from Donk one dark night....

 

2 hours ago, PhilJ W said:

Just had a visit from the plod re. the scooter scrote. He won't be troubling the neighbourhood for a while now and they will not now require a statement. Saturday evening he was doing his thing when he ran into a van door. It was dark, he was dressed in dark clothing and the scooter was painted black and of course no lights. Herpes delivery driver in a hurry and you can guess the rest. Said scrote is now in hospital with a broken collar bone and fractured kneecap. They won't be prosecuting and when I asked if the scooter was going to be crushed the answer was it already is.

 

Won't prosecute the scooter rider?  I'm guessing no licence, insurance, mot, road traffic offences etc etc.

No wonder people get p1ssed off with law & order.  They should jump on the little b'stard from a great height.

[polybear]

12 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

But what do the numbers in that article mean?  In one place the trial involved 43,000 people.  But it then goes on to say  that so far 94 people in the trial  have become infected with Cov19 (which is three times more than expected) but the analysis shows that 90% had not received the vaccine.  90% of which number - 43,000 or 90% of the 94 who have become infected?   It then says that implies that no more than 8 people (out of 94) had received the vaccine which is a nonsense if you compare that with the statement that the vaccine is 90% effective.    What they don't report is the number of people in that group of 94 who had received the vaccine and the number who hadn't received the vaccine - surely only that data would give a theoretical effectiveness figure for the vaccine, albeit from a very small sample

 

Looks like they need to hire John Coombe Barton (probably at the Guarniad?) to present their numbers for them.  

 

Bear is sceptical also; mention of applying for an "emergency licence" sounds worrying - does this mean that some safeguards will be missed?

[Barry O]

Congratulations to Mr and Mrs Dom! hope it all goes smoothly.

 

In other news.. HMRC have given me some tax back.. a whole £20.35 but, as they say in the trade, "better than a kick in the unmentionable"..

 

I survived my trip to the sub post office despite a complete muppet of a woman who did not like fact I was in front of her in the queue..  Lummy! Some people just can't stay chilled!

 

Scones have been tested.. fine if eaten cold as well.... I may need a one later with some of my sugar free jam.... yummy!!

 

As a mere engineer I have to say that like @The Stationmaster the press release is a clear as mud..but if the other vaccines in the pipeline give similar results we should get to a "New normal" next year..

 

Baz

[Coombe Barton]

15 minutes ago, TheQ said:

did you spell that right?

 

Of course not - I missed out the Q

[iL Dottore]

21 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

But what do the numbers in that article mean?...

It's, quite frankly, crappy reporting. I'm currently working so I have no time to clarify the material. But trust me, as badly reported as the findings are, it is good news!

 

Back later

 

iD

[Erichill16]

The stock markets seem happy, they’re up by 5%.

 

[iL Dottore]

OK Guys, I took a tea-break.

 

I'll try and decipher it for you:

 

There are two treatment groups - active (treatment) and placebo (a sham treatment - the patient is treated the same as the active group and recieves everything except the active medication). The combined total of the two groups (and all figures I'm using are always from the article) is 43,000 volunteers (which, as I can tell you as a drug development pro, is bloody impressive). What is not stated is how the groups are divided (I doubt 50:50, possibly 1/3 placebo vs 2/3 active? I don't know).

In the entire patient population 94 people became infected. Of these infected patients 90% (or 84 patients) were in the placebo arm. The study is designed to continue until 164 "events" (in this case CoVID-19 infections) have been reached - no matter in which arm of the study these events occur (I think, I don't know what the trial assumptions or the study design are). This sounds like a pretty standard study design to me.

 

In regards to the Bear's concerns, frequently life saving drugs go through an accelerated approval - which in oncology means that the benefits outweigh the risks - and there are a whole lot of conditions attached to an accelerated approval. In this case, with the vaccine, 43,000 subject is one hell of a robust sample size and the study conclusions (the vaccine is safe and effective) will most certainly hold up. Where time will be saved will be in those areas - such as long term stability - which may not be relevant to a vaccine but are usually part and parcel of an IND dossier. If they are using an existing vaccine technology, they'll already have plenty of CMC and pre-clinical data to submit.

 

Gotta run... Sorry.

 

Cheers...

Edited November 9, 2020 by iL Dottore

[The Stationmaster]

26 minutes ago, polybear said:

 

Bear is sceptical also; mention of applying for an "emergency licence" sounds worrying - does this mean that some safeguards will be missed?

No - it has previously explained in respect of a British developed vaccine that the process will be 'telescoped' - meaning shortened.  So no safeguards would be missed it's just that they would be done a lot more quickly than normal (which means less time for potential problems to emerge  - does that impl;y some might be missed?).  So perhaps as you were and chose your own semantics?

 

But what most of - if not all - the vaccine developers in the west are doing is getting manufacturing underway long in advance of any approval in order to have considerable supplies available if/when their vaccine is approved.  It would of course cost them a lot of money if their particular approach and resultant vaccine isn't approved.

[Sir TophamHatt]

17 hours ago, BoD said:

In the Scouts we went to the local woods for a ‘wide game’  where you were actually encouraged to throw fireworks at each other.  

Ahh, the old "wide game" - any game that can be played in a big field.

Just a shame the few I played, I can't remember what game it actually was!

 

 

The only one I can remember involved large boxes.

Two teams split into two, each at opposite corners of a square shape.  Aim of the game is to swap so all team members are on the opposite side from where they started.  The challenge?  A large box over your head and body so you can't see but have to hear your team instead.  May not sound fun but when people are all crashing in the middle and then walking off in the wrong direction or one guy who just bombed it as fast as he could - it really was quite fun!

[Andrew P]

Winter Fuel allowance x 2 = YES. Two happy bunnies.

[simontaylor484]

Morning all 

 

Congrats to Dom and family

 

Overcast and grey here but the floody bog has gone.

 

At least the mad scooter rider has got his comeuppance hitting the herpes van. They should have sent him to hospital in it that woukd have been a nice painful journey for him probably going missing in the process.

[Ian Abel]

Congratulations Dom and family

 

Moanday...

 

Busy Sunday doing pretty much nothing sensible it seems other than a great Zoom with some UK friends! Seems the entire world is breathing a sigh of relief...

Spent much of the weekend alternately setting up my new phone and a few simple errands <sigh>

Great evening Saturday with Julies niece, partner and their girls, celebrating <hic> pass the champers  

 

Today, work and watching the thermometer plummet.

Started the day at 17 and that's as high as we're goign! Overcast and expected to be around +1C by early evening!

 

Tally ho.

 

 

[southern42]

' afternoon all from red dragon land.

Wafts of apricot and mixed spice bun loaf coming from the oven...

Another virtual family birthday being celebrated today.

 

And while we are on celebration matters, birthday/anniversary greetings to those who I may have missed and congratulations to Dom and family.  Forget the pink, girlie ride on bikes, though - there are some superb looking ride on locos out there, too....just mentioning...   Pricey, mind!

 

Warm sun shine streaming all day...

I could get used to this.  

 

Scoop of the year, I reckon...

A freebie photo book from my main online photo company.

So, I assembled a year's worth of photos of our stint on the Conwy Valley Museum Railway.

As telling as the photos are - through wind, rain, mist, frost, snow, sun - there is an obvious lack of certain areas of play, which, if we get to return, I shall have to portray in another book...

But first, I await the arrival of the first album...

 

Next project, the annual family Calendar - masks, social distancing, lockdown and all.

 

Fitt  and  Elfie looking up.

 

Take care and play safe.

_________

Best wishes

Polly

 

Cake ready to take out of oven....

[Tony_S]

1 hour ago, iL Dottore said:

 What is not stated is how the groups are divided (I doubt 50:50, possibly 1/3 placebo vs 2/3 active? I don't know).

The above should be in the quote box,

There were some placebo to non placebo ratio  figures mentioned in the early stage reports where a small number of volunteers took part , it was closer to your later figure. 
I read through Pfizer’s report too and couldn’t find anything that matched what the Guardian reported. 

Edited November 9, 2020 by Tony_S

[PhilJ W]

Afternoon all from Estuary-Land. Went to Tess Coes this afternoon. They've shut off the upstairs (none-food) section but are now allowing people upstairs a few at a time. Problem is they won't allow trolleys upstairs so any large or bulky items cannot be purchased. And they might be in breach of disability discrimination laws.

4 hours ago, polybear said:

 

Won't prosecute the scooter rider?  I'm guessing no licence, insurance, mot, road traffic offences etc etc.

No wonder people get p1ssed off with law & order.  They should jump on the little b'stard from a great height.

 He won't be riding a scooter for a long time if at all. Word is that his knee is pretty badly smashed up and that he'll be in traction for some time. Sad thing is that such prosecutions take time and money and all he will get in the end is a slapped wrist. 

[polybear]

2 hours ago, simontaylor484 said:

They should have sent him to hospital in it that woukd have been a nice painful journey for him probably going missing in the process.

 

And then deliver him to A&E by chucking him over a wall into a bush.  Pyrancathus, hopefully....