Loco duplication

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Why not - given the nature of the market and the observation that there are lots of items which have yet to be covered in model form it was entirely predictable that the suggestion of some sort of industry collusion (which the authorities view as the setting up of Cartels) to avoid duplication and presumably increase the number of items modelled was bound to be suggested at some stage.

 

going off purely super detailed, and soon to be, currently or recently available..

08 duplicated

20 duplicated

24 duplicated 

25 triplicated

31 triplicated

37 duplicated

40 duplicated

45 duplicated

47 duplicated

50 duplicated

60 triplicated

66 duplicated

And you think the industry faces the risk of a cartel ?

Others are suggesting a monopoly is a good thing.

 

its far left vs far right, yet I think the industry is right in the middle myself, just some people don't like it there.

 

and its been going on for at least a decade now… with DJ Models being the only notable loss, and several players making an entrance.

 

its good people are aware and discussing the issues, as it shows healthy,

but theres no pleasing anyone in this debate…

 

Suppliers are going to supply,

consumers are going to groan and buy,

and retailers… they just retail and keep quiet.. mostly.

Edited June 17 by adb968008
Edited for clarity

[Andy Hayter]

14 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

 

And you think the industry is in a cartel ?

 

 

 

Judging by your comment here and a similar one earlier about one of my posts, I think you may have missed a very significant point.

 

I (and I assume @phil-b259) are not suggesting that the manufacturers are currently in a cartel. 

 

We are responding to an idea  originally from @richscylla that a system be set up whereby manufacturers could announce to one another but not the public what they were producing and what stage of development they were at - thus reducing the likelihood of duplication in the future.   It is this, were it to happen, that could be construed as a mechanism to reduce market choice - in a sense carving up the market.   

 

Do remember also that one of our "local" producers has a direct US presence through its parent, where authorities are significantly more stringent in their interpretations.

[woodenhead]

And the big reason why it won't work is one company would announce it's doing all the remaining diesels (as it might as well do so) and everyone else would be expected to roll over and go bust.

 

In a limited market with limited product choices you cannot expect that discussions between companies would not end up with one company muscling in and pushing out the others, and it's going to be the one with the biggest marketing clout.

 

No, as upsetting as it is for modellers that their chosen favourite model railway company has competition, it's the most fair way for the market to be - the models sell based on their merits.

[woodenhead]

@adb968008 In your list of super detailed models - who is doing the other class 20, not aware of any announcements.

[adb968008]

8 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

I (and I assume @phil-b259) are not suggesting that the manufacturers are currently in a cartel. 
 

to be clear, neither am I. (Edited my words).

 

But Cartels and Monopolies are big words, in what is a small game.

Whilst I agree with phil,  size doesnt matter.. I think this hobby is a long way from either, regardless what translation of it is applied.

What were seeing imo is simply consumer frustration.

 

8 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

We are responding to an idea  originally from @richscylla that a system be set up whereby manufacturers could announce to one another but not the public what they were producing and what stage of development they were at - thus reducing the likelihood of duplication in the future.   It is this, were it to happen, that could be construed as a mechanism to reduce market choice - in a sense carving up the market.   

This idea is for the birds, personally.

 

Think about it..

hmm ok ive got a class 66… i’ll happilly let xyz take it and sell thousands in 60+ liveries, plus more in the future and in return i’ll take the 58 in a handful of liveries for a class no one has seen running here this century.….

Regardless the legals, Who is  going to commercially sign up to that ?

 

Mainstream models will never get agreement (and is ripe territory for collusion if they did). It doesnt matter if its developed in secret, shared or made public knowledge, because if multiple companies are going to do it… they are going to do it anyway.

Its tough for the consumer wanting Electrostar or the L&Y class 27 (ie me, as I want both), because one is high risk capital, the other is low demand… Should someone want to minimize risk, the choice is to be upfront and ride the wave in hope and a very long delivery cycle, or try to sound bite it from market intel… 

 

Now I do know the whisper has been out on Electrostar for nearly a decade, and yet nothing, along side several full out “no” from others, not even a “lets see”. For the LYR class 27; OOWorks has done… their hit rate is about 25% became rtr, though all were Southern, but the LYR 23 is like gold dust… so some demand exists, but not enough apparently (and theres not much clamour for it out there, compared to the noise of a new class 40).

 

So unfortunately unless someone new enters and takes on high risk or low demand models.. were unfortunately going to have to lump it…  the class 81,2,3,4 are on a steeper slope than where the gold diggers are currently hunting

 

7 hours ago, woodenhead said:

@adb968008 In your list of super detailed models - who is doing the other class 20, not aware of any announcements.

Oops well spotted, my bad ! Not wanting to originate a rumour !

I missed off its twin too.. the class 40.

 

 

Edited June 18 by adb968008

[woodenhead]

20 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Oops well spotted, my bad ! Not wanting to originate a rumour !

I missed of its twin too.. the class 40.

 

 

Well either one hauled coal wagons aplenty so I think we can safely assume they're on someone's shopping list along with a humble 350.

[adb968008]

11 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Well either one hauled coal wagons aplenty so I think we can safely assume they're on someone's shopping list along with a humble 350.

Honestly I dont think we need a new class 40… despite being a 40 fan.

Though I am clearly in a minority !

 

But a model of 40445 in large logo, with ETH, Aerials, headlight and Scottie dog as it was in the October 1991 diesel gala, along side a Black warship would be nice to see.

 

i’m a laggard on welcoming duplication. But the results often speak for themselves... I do think though after seeing what a mk2b/c can really be modelled like, that a new mk1 range should be considered… 

 

 

Edited June 17 by adb968008

[woodenhead]

4 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

But a model of 40445 in large logo, with ETH, Aerials, headlight and Scottie dog as it was in the October 1991 diesel gala, along side a Black warship would be nice to see.

 

 

And KR Models are only doing it in blue, no aerials and no Scottie.

[97406]

7 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Honestly I dont think we need a new class 40… despite being a 40 fan.

Though I am clearly in a minority !

 

But a model of 40445 in large logo, with ETH, Aerials, headlight and Scottie dog as it was in the October 1991 diesel gala, along side a Black warship would be nice to see.

 

i’m a laggard on welcoming duplication. But the results often speak for themselves... I do think though after seeing what a mk2b/c can really be modelled like, that a new mk1 range should be considered… 

 

 

 

Technically, I don’t need a new class 40, but I’ll be getting a barrow load more when a decent one comes out, especially if there’s enough room to fit a larger speaker inside. The Bachmann one looks decidedly crude out of the box these days, and the KR CAD renders are laughable.

 

If anything, 40s  had a larger following than 25s did back in the day and we have 3 up-to-date models for Rat fans which are selling enough for Heljan to commission a second run, Bachmann and SLW notwithstanding. 

 

 

Edited June 18 by 97406

[97406]

7 hours ago, woodenhead said:

And KR Models are only doing it in blue, no aerials and no Scottie.

 

…and it doesn’t look like an accurate representation of a 40 with what I’ve seen so far. That could (or hopefully will) change of course….

Edited June 18 by 97406

[adb968008]

3 hours ago, 97406 said:

 

If anything, 40s  had a larger following than 25s did back in the day 

 

 

No if anything about it… the three big waves of the late 70-early 80’s was

 

Westerns then Deltics then Whistlers

 

After that it all diversified , 20’s, 25’s, 26/7’s then coalesced once again around 50’s and finally around class 37’s for the next decades.

Peak Army ? your having a jolly… it was just few kids and puzzled passengers who boarded the wrong train…so boring even BR just turned them off.

 

 

 

Edited June 18 by adb968008

[Hal Nail]

When we talk about duplication, or more specifically the people who moan about it, are we actually talking about a new version of a model that's already been done ever - which as we've discussed at length is inevitable - or merely that its unfortunate when two (or more) announce a new one at exactly the same time? 

 

The latter is what I tend to think of especially when releases are relatively infrequent. So for example the manors, 25 or 60 coming together does seem unfortunate. Yes i get that choice is good, especially if one is Heljan(!), but ideally one good version would be enough.

 

Whereas if, say, Accurascale brought out a 40 tomorrow and Cavalex an 81*, both would probably do better.

 

 

*first example i could think of

 

 

[woodenhead]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Peak Army ? your having a jolly… it was just few kids and puzzled passengers who boarded the wrong train…so boring even BR just turned them off.

 

 

 

Trains full of Arnold Rimmers, no wonder BR banished the remaining locos to Tinsley and March, then switched them off before it got out of hand.

[Geep7]

I know we are talking about UK outline loco duplication, but taking perhaps an equivalent of a Class 66, if we look over the pond in HO, then a standard US loco, the GP7, is made by at least 4 manufacturers (Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann and Walthers).

[97406]

6 hours ago, adb968008 said:

No if anything about it… the three big waves of the late 70-early 80’s was

 

Westerns then Deltics then Whistlers

 

After that it all diversified , 20’s, 25’s, 26/7’s then coalesced once again around 50’s and finally around class 37’s for the next decades.

Peak Army ? your having a jolly… it was just few kids and puzzled passengers who boarded the wrong train…so boring even BR just turned them off.

 

 

 

 

Well that’s it. Deffo time for a decent 40 now the Westerns and Deltics are up to date! 😃

 

I didn’t mind the Peaks, I just preferred other diesels to them. I have a couple waiting to be detailed but other locos keep jumping the queue.

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, 97406 said:

 

. I have a couple waiting to be detailed but other locos keep jumping the queue.

That was BRs problem too, look at 45015, still waiting… yet the 60’s have come and gone in the same time period.

 

i’m surprised no ones made key rings out of it yet.

Edited June 18 by adb968008

[Andy Hayter]

6 hours ago, Geep7 said:

I know we are talking about UK outline loco duplication, but taking perhaps an equivalent of a Class 66, if we look over the pond in HO, then a standard US loco, the GP7, is made by at least 4 manufacturers (Athearn, Atlas, Bachmann and Walthers).

 

But for a very much bigger market, which means every producer gets a chance of a profitable slice of the cake and looking at the models they are largely aimed at different sections of the modelling community.  

[woodenhead]

53 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

But for a very much bigger market, which means every producer gets a chance of a profitable slice of the cake and looking at the models they are largely aimed at different sections of the modelling community.  

 Well the class 25 as produced by SLW, Bachmann and Heljan has a second run from Heljan so someone is buying enough of them.

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

But for a very much bigger market, which means every producer gets a chance of a profitable slice of the cake and looking at the models they are largely aimed at different sections of the modelling community.  

Its a bigger country, but is it a bigger market ?

 

Model Railways, indeed railway enthusiasts doesn't feel as popular as in Europe, not when I lived there… more of concentrated pockets and vast distances between some of them.

 

Second hand US model railways on ebay doesn't seem as big, and suspect many models suffer waste bin attrition, especially at the train-set end more than Europe.

 

Certainly mainline steam is a luxury, even steam on private lines can be… the idea of two insteam on regular daily timetables and heritage railway signalling is very rare.

 

It kind if feels like what the UK scene might be like 20 years into the future when the initially preserving generation from the 1960’s has passed on.

 

 

Edited June 19 by adb968008

[Crisis Rail]

On 15/06/2024 at 10:33, davidw said:

I wasn't necessarily referring to Diesels

Im not interested then! 🤣

[Andy Hayter]

9 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Its a bigger country, but is it a bigger market ?

 

Model Railways, indeed railway enthusiasts doesn't feel as popular as in Europe, not when I lived there… more of concentrated pockets and vast distances between some of them.

 

Second hand US model railways on ebay doesn't seem as big, and suspect many models suffer waste bin attrition, especially at the train-set end more than Europe.

 

Certainly mainline steam is a luxury, even steam on private lines can be… the idea of two insteam on regular daily timetables and heritage railway signalling is very rare.

 

It kind if feels like what the UK scene might be like 20 years into the future when the initially preserving generation from the 1960’s has passed on.

 

 

 

I don't think our two observations are mutually exclusive.  

 

The population of the USA and Canada is around  5.5 times that of the UK.

If the market for model railways is 4 * times that of the UK, that leaves enough business for 4 producers on the same volumes as UK ones and at the same time looks like a less concentrated population.  This the more so if, as here in France, that modelling population is concentrated in specific regions or cities.   

 

 

* I thought I had seen a number bigger than that, but it was some time ago and in any case the size of the market is a big discussion point unless you are a manufacturer.  

[adb968008]

15 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

I don't think our two observations are mutually exclusive.  

 

The population of the USA and Canada is around  5.5 times that of the UK.

If the market for model railways is 4 * times that of the UK, that leaves enough business for 4 producers on the same volumes as UK ones and at the same time looks like a less concentrated population.  This the more so if, as here in France, that modelling population is concentrated in specific regions or cities.   

 

 

* I thought I had seen a number bigger than that, but it was some time ago and in any case the size of the market is a big discussion point unless you are a manufacturer.  

I built a layout when I was out there, not huge, 8’ frontage set in mountains between two snow shelters. When I left the US bringing it back was a non starter, so I looked for someone to take it on, and couldn't find anyone in the California bay area. That said the bay area is quite blessed with railway heritage.. the Trams,WPRR Portola, Sacramento, Altamont, Jamestown, WRM, Yolo…so it was a surprise.
So I donated it to a charity as I was out of time.

 

I still have the stock though, most of it survived the various several flights back to Europe though Delta treated one box like a football and ive still got a few in bits now, 20 years later.

 

It was amazing to me how far ahead US standards of models were compared to Europe and the UK, and for the price they were. I was lucky to have a job at the time that saw me visit 45 states, often customers were rail facilities too, so I got to see a number of museums/railroads/shops etc, especially if I did a weekend stopover.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 19 by adb968008

[ruggedpeak]

An interesting thread, with useful info on locos already produced and duplicated, which has run its course, at least until the next announcement!

 

I did laugh at some youtubers who have managed to create 15+ minute vids complaining about people on social media complaining about duplication. Apparently it's full of "hate" (that old chestnut, anyone disagreeing with the simple-minded is now a hate crime....🙄) and is some of it is "diabolical". Good some to see some proper long words being used on social media for once, so not all bad!

 

Definitely the End of Days or at least this civilisation, but that's for another thread.....

 

 

[irishmail]

On 18/06/2024 at 22:10, woodenhead said:

 Well the class 25 as produced by SLW, Bachmann and Heljan has a second run from Heljan so someone is buying enough of them.

Well the 'Rats' did get all over the place.  You can never have too many of them. 😁

[jjb1970]

In the Japanese market both Kato and Tomix pretty much replicate each others N ranges (with a few exceptions) and do OK, though the Japanese N market is huge. Both companies are a bit like Hornby in offering comprehensive ranges allowing people to provide for all their needs from a single manufacturer if they wanted to. And based on interaction with Japanese modellers I get the impression that quite a few are indeed either Kato or Tomix people, staying within one system where possible.

 

What challenges the 'large markets support duplication' is China. The hobby is still quite small in China, though rapidly growing. Despite that several locomotives have been duplicated, in some cases several times. The DF11 was the first good RTR HO Chinese model, it was re-tooled by Bachmann to improve it and alternatives were made by Bowande and 1435, as well as two companies making the double unit versions. Numerous companies made models of the DF4 series ('the Chinese 47') and some of the hood units like the DF7.