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Which Manufacturer should enter TT:120?


Which Manufacturer should enter TT:120?  

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  1. 1. Which Manufacturer should enter TT:120?

    • Accurascale
      17
    • Bachmann
      9
    • Dapol
      12
    • Rapido Trains
      12
    • RevolutioN Trains
      10
    • Others
      11


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Out of those I'd love to see Rapido, because then it's only a matter of time before Jason decides to do Canadian TT, too.

 

I think MTB will be next, to do models of the types that can be sold both in central Europe and UK.

 

And if things really take off, I can't see Tillig not getting involved, after all they think TT is "theirs"... wouldn't mind seeing Piko, either, I have their Laminátka and it's lovely.

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An interesting question which sort of forgets that Peco have dipped their toes in the water. My guess (it is a guess) is that none of the above will at the moment, at least in any significant way. The success of  TT120 hangs on Hornby's activity and given that we're told it takes about three years for a loco to get from drawing board to dealers shelves I would think that other companies will be waiting to see how the scale takes off and if Hornby's support continues. Don't forget that Hornby have some previous for dropping some of their innovative ideas like OO live steam and the 3.5" gauge Rocket.

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Probably Accurascale and/or Heljan in the next few years.

Heljan would really fill gaps in availability of British outline diesels, especially Bo-Bo classes, 25, 26, 27, 33, and 35, whilst Hornby produce the larger diesels.

Accurascale could release a Deltic, the early Mk2 carriages and some of their wagons.

Tillig could release a model of a Warship class 42/43 diesel, derived from Deutsche Bundesbahn's V200 hydraulics, which they already produce.

However the Warships were built for UK's smaller loading gauge so the model's chassis would have to be partially redesigned to take that into account.

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23 hours ago, Stefen1988 said:

Which Manufacturer should enter TT and follow Hornby?

 

None of them.  The market for TT is still small: probably not large enough to accommodate multiple players.  If any of them do follow Hornby, then those TT production slots will mean producing less in other scales.

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Posted (edited)
On 14/06/2024 at 21:13, Stefen1988 said:

I'm curious and wondering.


Which Manufacturer should enter TT and follow Hornby?

Depends when you expect it to happen. If you mean any other UK-outline OO r-t-r brand, It will be a good few years off, if ever. Quite aside from how Hornby might feel about/react to it.....

 

Right now, I can't see it happening at all, simply because none of "the others" seem to be feeling pressures that (at least in part) motivated Hornby to diversify from OO in the first place. It's also uncertain whether the TT:120 market for UK prototype models is yet big enough to support a second major r-t-r player.

 

These guys are building credibility in OO as well as market share, and won't want to be seen as the "first to blink" or as a bit player dabbling around the edges of Hornby's coat-tails. The word "follow" will be a major turn-off for ambitious competitors.

 

The sharp new start-ups (Accurascale, Cavalex, Rapido et al ) have created higher levels of competition than Hornby has ever faced in the past and the established OO brands, Dapol and Heljan, have been growing too, along with Bachmann Europe launching EFE Rail to reduce volume dependence on their parent company. 

 

All these brands are, for Hornby Railways, "part of the problem" in OO, so aren't likely to become "part of the solution" in TT:120, and I very much doubt that Hornby would relish any of their tormentors following them into their intended sanctuary.

 

On top of that, the older names, Bachmann, Dapol, and Heljan have all diversified since Hornby moved into TT:120, but in the direction of narrow gauge subjects in 4mm and 7mm scales.

 

So, from their own perspectives, how would "the rest" view such a move? In one word, probably "unnecessary". If none of them, then who? There's a possibility that a continental brand might see an opportunity to enter the UK market, but Hornby already owns most of the ones I've heard of.....

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Totally disagree.

 

If the market is there* then it would be fool hardy not to dip a toe or two in. Just look at those manufacturers that have made a few O Gauge models whilst not totally committing to a major range in O Gauge. Or OO9, N Gauge, etc.

 

I can't remember any howls of derision towards Heljan or Dapol for making O Gauge so why would there be if they made some TT stuff?

 

Why aren't Accurascale getting brickbats for making the Ruston diesel in O? That must delay the 00 stuff, or does that reasoning only apply to Hornby?

 

 

*I reckon it is or will be within five years. However I seem to have an inkling some want it to fail just because it's Hornby. If someone else was doing it they would be all over it, and if it was one of the new boys would be shouting about it from the rooftops as being the best thing ever!

 

 

Jason

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21 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

On top of that, the older names, Bachmann, Dapol, and Heljan have all diversified since Hornby moved into TT:120, but in the direction of narrow gauge subjects in 4mm and 7mm scales.

 

 

John

 

Factually incorrect.

 

Bachmann and Heljan have been making narrow gauge for years. Hornby TT has existed for about 18 months!

 

I don't think Dapol have made any narrow gauge....

 

 

 

Jason

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6 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

.... If the market is there* then it would be fool hardy not to dip a toe or two in.  ......

 

...... *I reckon it is or will be within five years. 

 

Two thoughts; if you can make money from OO than TT120 then why would you enter that market and if you perceive it to be more of a risk than OO then again you would probably not enter the market.

 

In many ways this is not a negative position, Hornby have a better chance of making TT120 work for them given a relatively clear field.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Factually incorrect.

 

Bachmann and Heljan have been making narrow gauge for years. Hornby TT has existed for about 18 months!

 

I don't think Dapol have made any narrow gauge....

 

 

 

Jason

Dapol: O-16.5 Lynton & Barnstaple under their Lionheart brand. 

 

Bachmann O-16.5 was announced only in the past few weeks.

 

Bachmann USA's "Thomas" locos in OO9 do predate Hornby's TT:120, but, if the UK range does it's not by much and the decision will clearly have already been made. 

 

Either way, aside from Heljan's aborted 31, which probably just reinforced their negative experience of trying to launch a British HO range decades ago, Their OO9 involvement isn't exactly ancient, 

Edited by Dunsignalling
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11 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

Totally disagree.

 

If the market is there* then it would be fool hardy not to dip a toe or two in. Just look at those manufacturers that have made a few O Gauge models whilst not totally committing to a major range in O Gauge. Or OO9, N Gauge, etc.

 

I can't remember any howls of derision towards Heljan or Dapol for making O Gauge so why would there be if they made some TT stuff?

 

Why aren't Accurascale getting brickbats for making the Ruston diesel in O? That must delay the 00 stuff, or does that reasoning only apply to Hornby?

 

 

*I reckon it is or will be within five years. However I seem to have an inkling some want it to fail just because it's Hornby. If someone else was doing it they would be all over it, and if it was one of the new boys would be shouting about it from the rooftops as being the best thing ever!

 

 

Jason

But the New Boys, and the more established names seem to be doing just fine as they are. in OO, and some in multiple scales other than TT:120.

 

Hornby weren't; hence their need for a Plan B.

 

TT:120 could go one of three ways, total flop (already cleared that hurdle), runaway success that sees it on a par with N (maybe in twenty years, or OO (maybe in a hundred years)

 

The most likely future will be a levelling off at some as yet unpredictable point to a stable but as yet unquantifiable share of the overall model railway market..

 

However, there is no urgency whatever for any other brand to stick a toe in the water, dive in wholeheartedly or make any other moist metaphorical entry unless they consider they can make more profit by making a TT:120 model in preference to doing another in OO. 

 

That seems unlikely, so the only valid  motivation for getting into TT:120 at this stage would be to challenge Hornby head-on for domination of the scale, a case of "go big or go home".


Any of them can "have a dabble" any time they choose, but that would expose a distinct lack of ambition. If all any of them had in mind was to become a "supporting act",  there's no advantage to be had by getting in second over fourth or fifth.

 

UK TT:120 is Hornby's show, and where their current r-t-r rivals are concerned, I reckon it's likely to remain that way for a decade or more. 

 

John  

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Hornby went into TT:120 because of a particular issue. The biggest brand in British outline model railways had no product in a smaller scale than OO to offer the space challenged. Despite the fact that they are most emphatically heavily involve in N and TT with Hornby International, to the extent that Hornby International might be even skewed towards the smaller scales (Arnold seem to have a disproportionately large number of models on offer compared to their HO brands) , Hornby in their home market had nothing smaller than 4mm

 

Bachmann have the market leader in British N, (Farish) and the recent OO9 range,. Dapol have been number 2 in British N. Revolution grew out of N and are now both N and 4mm. Cavalex do both 4mm and N. British outline is only one part of Rapido's interests (I'm not sure how far they are involved with North American N). Nobody else really had Hornby's problem - pretty well everyone else already has a small-scale product to sell

 

Hornby presumably felt that if they went into N they would at best become the number 4 brand in N and it wasn't worth it. If they'd "sold" N , inevitably 70-90% of converts' spend would have gone to Farish, Dapol, Revolution, Peco et  al, and Hornby would have been left   doing a lot of heavy-lifting in sales but picking up crumbs in spend.

 

TT120 wasn't an obvious move - which is why nobody really saw this coming even when Hornby were rumoured to be working on TT. You can argue about whether it was a good move, but the stuff has so far apparently sold as briskly as it's been made and there's no sign is damaged Hornby's bottom line.. At the bend of the day what matters to the hobby is what new opportunities and possibilities the models open, not how we score detailed Hornby commercial policy out of 10  . We now have two different small scale options, with different merits, not one

 

But I can't see why a manufacturer who already has a British N range as their small-scale product would want to get involved with a rival scale . Bachmann have OO9 for those who with insufficient space who find Farish doesn't suit. Dapol have extensdive N gauge interests  . Accurascale made their feelings about the venture known at the time, not least by responding by announcing that they were looking for N gauge subjects. It had something of a look that they were backing N against TT:120. At this point I'm not sure how any AS support of the TT:120 venture would sit with their established brand values

 

None of this means TT:120 isn't a commercially viable scale or won't establish a decent sized niche market. I just don't see anyone who already has significant British N interests getting involved. They don't need to.

 

The people who might get involved are those outside British N, especially if they are already in TT, and those who have already shown their hand. Heljan have no British N interests I can immediately think of,  and they've already flirted with the idea of British 1/120. BritishColumbian mentioned Tillig - if a viable  British TT market becomes established, you can imagine them wanting a slice of whatever action is going. Someone was behind the Gaugemaster 66 announcement,  which as I understood it was a Request for Interest on behalf of A Manufacturer - Gaugemaster themselves were not as I understood it going to be the manufacturer. A Continental  brand with existing TT interests represented by Gaugemaster would be the obvious suspect. Rapido explored the idea of a 3mm model with the 3mm Society a few years back;  someone from Revolution expressed the view that they weren't necessarily ruling out making something at some point in the future , I believe? But I don't think that was meant to suggest anything was under current or imminent consideration

 

In my view that's where another manufacturer of British 1/120 scale RTR might emerge. But I think anyone hoping for Accurascale, Bachmann, or Dapol to get involved is whistling into the wind

 

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As for the Gaugemaster 66 you might look at the last people who ran Mehanotechnika, If it was their tooling. Could be someone there in some capacity, whether as middleman or some other role.

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On 15/06/2024 at 23:08, Steamport Southport said:

However I seem to have an inkling some want it to fail just because it's Hornby.

 

I don't see anyone saying that.  If I wanted Hornby to fail, then I'd encourage all the mainstream manufacturers to jump in and 'steal' Hornby's TT:120 market.  The 00 market is much, much larger than the market for TT:120.  Whilst there is enough demand for two or three manufacturers to produce the same model (thinking 08/09 shunter, class 37, Class 47, Class 60, Class 66) in 00, duplication in a niche market would create serious financial difficulties for both parties.  The tooling costs for a TT:120 locomotive are probably comparable with the tooling cost for a 00 locomotive, so I think we can say that Hornby have decided to invest millions of pounds in what seems to be a reasonably comprehensive range of stock in the scale.  They really need to be given the opportunity to return a profit from that investment before others jump in and try to undercut them.  Obviously there are other companies producing TT:120 in a small way, such as Peco and also companies like West Hill Wagon Works, where 3D printing means their products can easily be scaled to complement what Hornby offer.

 

On 15/06/2024 at 23:08, Steamport Southport said:

If the market is there* then it would be fool hardy not to dip a toe or two in.

 

In time, others may dip a toe in the market, but I don't see that being any time soon.  How long will it take for the TT:120 market to eclipse the 00 market?  Probably decades.

 

DCC has been with us for just over three decades, yet there are lots of people who don't want to switch to DCC because they have a large collection of locomotives that would need to be converted.   N gauge models became available in the 1960s, so the N gauge market has been growing for 60 years, yet remains a much smaller market than 00.  Those with an established collection are unlikely to sell all their existing stock and jump to TT:120.  Some may, but it's probably a minority.  However, for people starting out (eg young people) or starting from scratch later in life (eg recent retirees), I can see that TT:120 could be a quite appealing choice.  Presumably Hornby view this as 'their market' and if they can get you started in their scale, then they know that you'll be a customer for life (because there is no-one else competing with them).  I doubt that Hornby would view competition favourably.

 

The purpose of a business is to make a profit for their shareholders.  It would be foolhardy for other manufacturers to divert production lines to producing a less profitable model than a more profitable model.  Given that Hornby have already announced the most popular stock in the scale, where is the gap for others?

 

One thing that hasn't been stated is of course that if sales volumes are lower (as they must be in TT:120 than 00), then it will take longer for the manufacturer to recover the tooling costs.  The fledgling TT:120 market is therefore best suited to a company who can produce the same model year after year.  Contrast that with, for example Revolution Trains, where the business model is to recover all of the production costs in a single large batch with numerous variants being produced at the same time.  I would suggest that such an approach would not work as well in a niche scale.

 

I hope that Hornby's venture into TT:120 is a success - I just don't see the need for people wanting other manufacturers to tread on their toes.  If anyone is going to make the scale popular, I think Hornby are the best manufacturer to do that.

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19 hours ago, Dungrange said:

One thing that hasn't been stated is of course that if sales volumes are lower (as they must be in TT:120 than 00),

Thanks to all who are contributing to this discussion. It is useful and well reasoned from all sides. To expand a little on the above quote: I think something being missed in assessing sales volumes, is the percentage of modellers purchasing an item. 
Say for example, the new Hornby Black 5 - clearly yes the OO market is vastly larger than the TT120 market. However, what percentage of OO modellers will actually go and buy the new Black 5? I'd suggest it must be quite low as an overall percentage. Maybe somewhere around 5% of all OO modellers? (That is of course a total guess, I do not have figures!!) But what happens when Hornby release a new TT120 model? What percentage of the market buys that? I'd suggest that the figure is vastly higher at present. I'd be surprised if it's not much nearer to 50%. So then to accurately assess potential return on investment of new models, it's not purely a question of market share, but rather what percentage of market can be turned into purchasing customers. 

Or to put it another way - if Dapol or Accurascale produced a run of a desirable TT120 model, I'd be astonished if it wouldn't sell out. Meaning just as much profit as manufacturing in their more established scales. 

 

Now, admittedly, whilst all that makes perfect sense in my head, I may be miles out! 

Edited by MacTrains
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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, MacTrains said:

Thanks to all who are contributing to this discussion. It is useful and well reasoned from all sides. To expand a little on the above quote: I think something being missed in assessing sales volumes, is the percentage of modellers purchasing an item. 
Say for example, the new Hornby Black 5 - clearly yes the OO market is vastly larger than the TT120 market. However, what percentage of OO modellers will actually go and buy the new Black 5? I'd suggest it must be quite low as an overall percentage. Maybe somewhere around 5% of all OO modellers? (That is of course a total guess, I do not have figures!!) But what happens when Hornby release a new TT120 model? What percentage of the market buys that? I'd suggest that the figure is vastly higher at present. I'd be surprised if it's not much nearer to 50%. So then to accurately assess potential return on investment of new models, it's not purely a question of market share, but rather what percentage of market can be turned into purchasing customers. 

Or to put it another way - if Dapol or Accurascale produced a run of a desirable TT120 model, I'd be astonished if it wouldn't sell out. Meaning just as much profit as manufacturing in their more established scales. 

 

Now, admittedly, whilst all that makes perfect sense in my head, I may be miles out! 

 

Such a loco might well "sell out" but the TT:120 market as yet remains, in numerical terms, minute compared with OO sales. It would therefore only do so if the factory produced a proportionate number of the quantity they might shift in OO, maybe 2% at best. 

 

Hornby picked TT:120 as a "Plan B" because they are struggling to compete in OO.

 

Nobody else is so, even discounting the risk of Hornby getting all "terriertorial" and announcing a duplicate,  what would be in it for them? 

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2 hours ago, MacTrains said:

Say for example, the new Hornby Black 5 - clearly yes the OO market is vastly larger than the TT120 market. However, what percentage of OO modellers will actually go and buy the new Black 5? I'd suggest it must be quite low as an overall percentage. Maybe somewhere around 5% of all OO modellers? (That is of course a total guess, I do not have figures!!) But what happens when Hornby release a new TT120 model? What percentage of the market buys that? I'd suggest that the figure is vastly higher at present. I'd be surprised if it's not much nearer to 50%.

 

Your logic is sound.  If there is a limited choice of locomotives produced in TT:120 compared to 00, then a greater proportion of modellers in that scale will make do with what is available.

 

However, I'd suggest that 5% of the 00 market is a significantly greater number of models than 50% of the TT:120 market.  I'd suggest that the relative market sizes at present are that the 00 market is of the order of 100 times greater than the TT:120 market.  That therefore means that a prototype in which only 1% of 00 modellers would buy would need 100% of TT:120 modellers to buy it for the manufacturer to get the same profit.

 

Hornby have chosen to take a gamble on this scale in the hope that the market increases over time and they will sell more models in the long term.

 

2 hours ago, MacTrains said:

Or to put it another way - if Dapol or Accurascale produced a run of a desirable TT120 model, I'd be astonished if it wouldn't sell out. Meaning just as much profit as manufacturing in their more established scales. 

 

'Selling out' isn't the same thing as being 'as profitable'.  If we assume that the 00 market is 100 times larger than TT:120 at present, and that the desirable model you're suggesting would be bought by 5% of 00 modellers or 50% of TT:120 modellers, then the 00 production run would be ten times larger and the profit would be ten times greater (assuming the model sells out in both scales).  Which would you choose?

 

Ultimately, I think Hornby are playing a long game here, which doesn't align with the business models of the newer entrants.

 

Let's just say that whatever it costs to tool up and produce a new model, the manufacturer needs to sell 10,000 models to make a profit.  It appears that the approach taken by Accurascale, Cavalex, Rapido and Revolution is to produce all these models all at the same time.  How do you sell so many models to the market all at once?  Make 500 models of each of 20 variants by either marketing pre-grouping, grouping and BR variants all at the same time with several different number options available, or sell multipacks with differently numbered models.  That approach is unlikely to work as well in the much smaller TT:120 market.  To sell 10,000 models in TT:120, Hornby are probably going to have to sell 1,000 models per year over ten years (meaning it takes longer to recover the capital invested), but that's not dissimilar to the way that Hornby and Bachmann have worked for decades - bringing out a new livery every year.

 

There is then the problem with picking a 'desirable TT:120 model'.  What is a 'desirable TT:120 model'?  It has to be something that will sell in large numbers, but it also has to be a model of something that Hornby haven't produced, announced or may be working on.  Given that Hornby have already announced or have produced what may be considered the most desirable TT:120 models, where is the gap for another manufacturer to fill?

 

Let's just say Rapido could scale down their forthcoming Port of Par locomotives - I'm sure that Hornby probably aren't looking at these prototypes, so duplication is probably unlikely to be an issue, but would these be 'desirable TT:120 models'?  I'd suggest that jumping into TT:120 at this point in time, is an unnecessary risk for most manufacturers.

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Posted (edited)
On 15/06/2024 at 23:08, Steamport Southport said:

Totally disagree.

 

If the market is there* then it would be fool hardy not to dip a toe or two in. Just look at those manufacturers that have made a few O Gauge models whilst not totally committing to a major range in O Gauge. Or OO9, N Gauge, etc.

 

I can't remember any howls of derision towards Heljan or Dapol for making O Gauge so why would there be if they made some TT stuff?

 

Why aren't Accurascale getting brickbats for making the Ruston diesel in O? That must delay the 00 stuff, or does that reasoning only apply to Hornby?

 

 

*I reckon it is or will be within five years. However I seem to have an inkling some want it to fail just because it's Hornby. If someone else was doing it they would be all over it, and if it was one of the new boys would be shouting about it from the rooftops as being the best thing ever!

 

 

Jason

Conversely having someone as well as Hornby would give the scale more credibility.

Whilst Hornby is the only player in it, and the detail level is what it is, the benchmark is below 00 in detail and could be much higher than what it is.

 

Without competition Hornby has no reason to up its game, and should the scale see another entrant, risks being nothing more than a seat warmer that gets over taken.. compare the new Bachmann 08 to the TT 08 when it comes to tooling suites etc.


if it takes 10 years for TT to become attractive, new entrants could easily be tempted to cherry pick and duplicate popular classes that Hornby has already done, but to a much better standard, rather than widening the range of uncovered subjects… thus pushing Hornby out of the market it created.

 

Railroad TT+ is my perception of Hornby TT so far.

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So far I think Hornby has found a nice sweet spot with their TT offerings, with a nice balance between detail, operability and pricing. I bought a blue/grey HST as a nostalgia trip and think it is an excellently done model which capture the look of the prototype very well. If anyone else does enter TT then I think Hornby have set the bar where it should be. In smaller scales trying to go to town on detail can end up detracting from models as things can end up looking either over scale or ridiculously fragile making operation and handling a nightmare. The most likely entrants are probably European TT brands with crossover models now that we share a common scale/gauge.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Conversely having someone as well as Hornby would give the scale more credibility.

Whilst Hornby is the only player in it, and the detail level is what it is, the benchmark is below 00 in detail and could be much higher than what it is.

 

Without competition Hornby has no reason to up its game, and should the scale see another entrant, risks being nothing more than a seat warmer that gets over taken.. compare the new Bachmann 08 to the TT 08 when it comes to tooling suites etc.


if it takes 10 years for TT to become attractive, new entrants could easily be tempted to cherry pick and duplicate popular classes that Hornby has already done, but to a much better standard, rather than widening the range of uncovered subjects… thus pushing Hornby out of the market it created.

 

Railroad TT+ is my perception of Hornby TT so far.

 

The only reason for a competitor to enter TT is to compete, not just to give the scale credibility, by playing a bit-part support role to Hornby's lead. To be brutal, The success or otherwise of TT in the UK matters to nobody else but Hornby. 

 

However, they are collectively eroding Hornby's market share in the OO market, where the real money is made, and (IMHO) will be content to let Hornby bob along in their little lifeboat. 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Without competition Hornby has no reason to up its game, and should the scale see another entrant, risks being nothing more than a seat warmer that gets over taken.. compare the new Bachmann 08 to the TT 08 when it cones to tooling suites etc.

 

Competition in a large marketplace is generally a good thing for the consumer, but competition in a niche market generally isn't because it divides the small levels of demand across too many players such that they all fail.

 

00 has been around for the best part of a century.  For the first few decades the scale was very much just what it was.  Improvements in fidelity are vey much a new thing driven by competition in a much larger market.  I fully expect the same thing to happen in UK TT:120 one day, but not in the next few years.

 

As far as making comparisons of detail across scales, it would be much better to compare Hornby's TT:120 offerings with N gauge as these two scales are much closer than TT:120 and 00.  If anyone is looking for the ultimate in fidelity, then they will choose one of the bigger rather than one of the smaller scales.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Dungrange said:

 

Competition in a large marketplace is generally a good thing for the consumer, but competition in a niche market generally isn't because it divides the small levels of demand across too many players such that they all fail.

 

00 has been around for the best part of a century.  For the first few decades the scale was very much just what it was.  Improvements in fidelity are vey much a new thing driven by competition in a much larger market.  I fully expect the same thing to happen in UK TT:120 one day, but not in the next few years.

 

As far as making comparisons of detail across scales, it would be much better to compare Hornby's TT:120 offerings with N gauge as these two scales are much closer than TT:120 and 00.  If anyone is looking for the ultimate in fidelity, then they will choose one of the bigger rather than one of the smaller scales.

Revolutions N gauge EMUs are quite frankly stunning.

 

Way better than any TT120 tooling ive seen.

 

TT makes me laugh, its ToyTat all over again.

N gauge makes me think if I hadnt gone all in decades ago and was just starting out now, this is where I would be starting.


But look back at N gauge in the 1980’s… it was toy town then too.

 

TT will take a generation and need to attract followers if its to replace OO but think TT is a whole new market is frankly bird theory.. as N was always the smaller alternative.

 

Edited by adb968008
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