2023 Overall Feeling

[Pete the Elaner]

11 hours ago, Ravenser said:

It's not just Hornby who would be affected by people saying "thanks I'll pass" or buying second hand. It's everyone in RTR OO

 

Hornby, uniquely, are attempting to offer budget/mid range "affordable" models . Some of this is from old tooling, some of it is from new tooling done to a less than "all bells and whistles" standard. Call it Design Clever, call it Railroad Plus , there's quite a bit of it in their tooling bank - Pendolino , 395 Javelin, Tornado, Crosti 9F, Maunsell EMUs , Railroad Mk1s...

 

Others are pressing on with the "premium model at a premium price" strategy . But unless they are offering something that's never been done before - which is increasingly getting quite difficult with locos and coaches - they depend on people replacing their existing models , or adding extra models to their fleets .

 

The "upgrade cycle" has largely been switched off, as the gains from "better" versions are getting quite modest now and prices are starting to get a little prohibitive for many people. At these sorts of prices the scope for impulse purchases and "I can't resist another one " is also restricted.

 

There is certainly a market for very expensive model trains  (The cynic in me mutters "it's called Gauge O" ... ) How big that market is and how far it can sustain the RTR manufacturers, is another matter

 

There is a risk of a "buyer's strike" setting in - it seems to have happened in Continental HO a few years back. But that would be across the board . Hornby are not in fact the highest-priced range around, and they are the only player making a serious attempt at offering an "affordable" range as an alternative.

 

Over the next few years it will be interesting to watch the commercial success or otherwise of current projects from all the manufacturers, as well as their new project announcements. I don't quite see OO RTR as a golden opportunity for anyone to make money over the next 5 years 

 

That's interesting & has reminded me of a conversation I heard today, while at a snooker tournament I was refereeing (not the one on TV).

Many assume that when money is tight, the expensive stuff fails to sell, but the conversation inferred that it seems that premium tickets to events are booming & it is mainly the mid level ones which are not.

Looking at models, Accurascale's 37s have sold well & in most cases, sold out. Could it be mainly Hornby's Railroad range which is suffering & if they were to produce a decent premium model, it would actually do ok?

[Pete the Elaner]

10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

100% absolutely.

 

I sometime read on here and think i am the only one left on the forum who still goes out standing on platforms.

 

 

Yesterday I was the oldest geezer in town at KX, Paddington and Marylebone.

 

Yet I must have come across at least 100 other enthusiasts below 30.

One kid was rushing us at the end of the platform having not just seen, but ridden all 5 class 91’s out there yesterday, making us all laugh with admiration.

 

Red LNER 91 is just sooo last year.
 

 

At Blackfriars the 73/9’s came in, around 20-30 kids were watching and knew about it… I was the only one over 30.

 

Several talked about their “archive” photos from 2015-2017… I had silence when I moved 2 feet up the platform and showed them my video of a GNER Eurostar departing in 2003 on the exact spot I was standing… then went on to talk about remembering a Deltic standing where some scaffolding is on what the fueling point, and pointing out the “hole” hiding in plain sight that was York road.

 

(The crowd got a bit older at Peterborough)..

 

There is a growing bunch of unit chasers too.. pointing out the ex-C2C Electrostars now on GN, as well as the Gatex ones.

 

 

Interesting even Twitter is seen as out of date.. its Instagram and Tiktok (though tiktoker’s are apparently todays “lunatic fringe”).

 

 

 

I discussed modelling, they all said the same thing… if there was something to buy they would. of everything above, the only thing you can accurately buy I saw yesterday from Hornby, is the GWR / LNER 800’s and the Test train coaches.

 

But there was only 1 name on their lips… I don't need to say it, needless to say it wasn't Hornby, one went as far as to say Hornby is just for babies and grandparents…

 

I find it enlightening to hear this.

 

I was born in the 70s & brought up in line of sight of the Clacton line. What could I see? A line with OLE (I couldn't actually see the tracks themselves) with EMUs heading each way twice an hour. I cannot model anything like this without spending loads of time building kits or bashing models. This is something which would put off potential new modellers.

[jjb1970]

A lot hinges on the size of the hobby, and more particularly, the number of buyers. For a manufacturer the opinions of people who are not going to buy their wares in any case is irrelevant, the only numbers that matter are number of buyers and number of potential buyers. The higher that number is they can amortize R&D costs across much larger numbers and reduce costs, and fund more projects. The inverse is also true, as production runs get smaller so costs have to be recouped from fewer sales and people looking for good opportunities are less likely to want to put their money into something that is shrinking.

 

To highlight why market size matters, look East. The reason I just paid S$303 (£188) for the Kato 300 first release 16 car set is partly clever application of design clever but much more so because it is selling into a market which is huge. 

 

I don't know numbers, but anecdotally it seems that production numbers have been shrinking. An example of where markets can go is US outline brass. At one time brass models were a regular part of the hobby, an expensive part but US importers like PFM published catalogues and supplied retailers. Now what US brass remains is ultra-niche and production numbers can struggle to get into two figures, what was once an expensive but still attainable part of the hobby (maybe equivalent to the Bachmann deluxe tier for their new 47 and 37 in terms of where it sat price wise) is now an almost incestuous micro-niche for a tiny group with very deep pockets (which seems to be rapidly dying out, literally). In that case the issue was that regular RTR improved levels of detail and accuracy to a point which made brass a bit pointless (though it should also be said that some regular RTR increased in price to not far off where brass used to sit).

 

In this context the upgrade cycle is important. The market has a lot of very good models. The older tooling Bachmann 37, 45 and 47 remain excellent models, ditto the Bachmann 9F. Hornby has a large stable of excellent models such as the 60, 67, 87 and lots of kettles. Many of these are the bread and butter staples of the hobby. I will buy additional models, but short of a revolution in command and control technology rendering existing models obsolete on technical grounds (and assuming I'd want to adopt such a new technology, I probably wouldn't) I have little interest in replacing the models I now have. And many of those can be found for good prices second hand, the combined impact must have some impact on new releases.

 

There are lots of hobbies which have shrunk thanks to factors such as technology advancing so that hardware becomes commoditised and with no real need to upgrade while gear still works. A good example is hi-fi. What tends to happen is that the circle gets smaller, often with a seemingly vibrant diversity of suppliers selling equipment in small numbers to a small but vocal group of enthusiasts,

[locoholic]

11 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

I find it enlightening to hear this.

 

I was born in the 70s & brought up in line of sight of the Clacton line. What could I see? A line with OLE (I couldn't actually see the tracks themselves) with EMUs heading each way twice an hour. I cannot model anything like this without spending loads of time building kits or bashing models. This is something which would put off potential new modellers.

Same here - if RTR models of the 1970s EMUs that operated out of the Liverpool Street of my youth were available I would buy them. 

[John M Upton]

I find some of the areas of Facebook not a very good overall judgement of the state of the hobby as a whole.  Make any sort of even slightly perceived negative comment about Hornby and the Hornby Apologists take to their keyboards and within moments, the mob with their pitchforks and burning torches are on you like a hoard of angry medieval villagers.

[HExpressD]

1 hour ago, John M Upton said:

I find some of the areas of Facebook not a very good overall judgement of the state of the hobby as a whole.  Make any sort of even slightly perceived negative comment about Hornby and the Hornby Apologists take to their keyboards and within moments, the mob with their pitchforks and burning torches are on you like a hoard of angry medieval villagers.

I don't think any single place is a good indication of the hobby as a whole, one needs to look at multiple outlets to gain a fair assessment

[RichardT]

18 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

I cannot model anything like this without spending loads of time building kits or bashing models.

Spending loads of time building kits and bashing models sounds quite a lot like the hobby of railway modelling.

 

RichardT

[Pete the Elaner]

2 hours ago, RichardT said:

Spending loads of time building kits and bashing models sounds quite a lot like the hobby of railway modelling.

 

RichardT

 

It does to an existing modeller but it would not act as an entry into the hobby.

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, RichardT said:

Spending loads of time building kits and bashing models sounds quite a lot like the hobby of railway modelling.

 

RichardT

 

Unfortunately the kits are not readily available... DC Kits having decided that particular game ain't worth the candle and left all trhe stuff in a storage container

 

Ciontemplate the idea of scratchbuilding 2 x Class 333 units to a decent standard, and swallow , hard. Don't even know where you'd source the drawings. (Some joker will now assure us that all you need to do is rush around Shipley station with a tape measure and notebook for an hour or two ... Simples)

 

To the best of my knowledge no 4mm kits for the Clacton units AM9, or the 306s in any condition , or Class 312 have ever been produced . Or the 313/314/315 series. It's just about possible to do the job for the WCML north of Watford and bits of Strathcydle , but elsewhere there are severe challenges.

 

I know of at least one group of brave souls intending to hack one or more 360s out of Bachmann 350s, but I've not heard of anyone having actually done so

 

A certain unmentionable outfit are pretty well your only resource if you require InterCity high soeed units

[Les1952]

4 hours ago, John M Upton said:

I find some of the areas of Facebook not a very good overall judgement of the state of the hobby as a whole.  Make any sort of even slightly perceived negative comment about Hornby and the Hornby Apologists take to their keyboards and within moments, the mob with their pitchforks and burning torches are on you like a hoard of angry medieval villagers.

 

They sound just like the Bachmann/Farish mafia on here- when I had the nerve to suggest that some Farish WDs couldn't pull the skin off a rice pudding (including mine)  I got no end of unhelpful (and in a couple of cases vituperative) comments on RMWeb.  It was only a couple of years later when the A2 came out that Dennis Lovatt finally admitted that there was a milling issue with the wheels with traction tyres on the WD and a significant number had traction tyres that didn't actually touch the rails.  Mind you, to get that admission I had to present him with an A2 wheelset with tyres and no groove.....

 

Les

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Les1952
typos...

[newbryford]

1 hour ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

 

 

 

To the best of my knowledge no 4mm kits for the Clacton units AM9, or the 306s in any condition , or Class 312 have ever been produced . Or the 313/314/315 series.

 

Southern Pride made a kit for the 310/312.

There's a recent build thread here:

 

There's been a couple of kits for the 313.

This is one of them.

http://www.southernregionmodels.co.uk/2014/07/508-313-etc-masters-first-pictures/

 

And another:

 

 

 

 

[adb968008]

5 hours ago, John M Upton said:

I find some of the areas of Facebook not a very good overall judgement of the state of the hobby as a whole.  Make any sort of even slightly perceived negative comment about Hornby and the Hornby Apologists take to their keyboards and within moments, the mob with their pitchforks and burning torches are on you like a hoard of angry medieval villagers.

Reminds me of this scene..

 

 

 

 

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, HExpressD said:

I don't think any single place is a good indication of the hobby as a whole, one needs to look at multiple outlets to gain a fair assessment

Agreed.

my research took me to Marylebone, Paddington, Kings Cross, Blackfriars, Wembley, Peterborough and finally ..Farringdon several times.

 

The message was the same everywhere except Wembley , they spoke a different language and walked with a hick there.

:-)

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by adb968008

[Ravenser]

50 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

Southern Pride made a kit for the 310/312.

There's a recent build thread here:

 

There's been a couple of kits for the 313.

This is one of them.

http://www.southernregionmodels.co.uk/2014/07/508-313-etc-masters-first-pictures/

 

And another:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had a hazy memory that Southern Pride had done something, but that it was the 310 (if the kit covers both classes that would explain my recollection)

 

I'm not clear whether and how far Southern Pride are still with us - I recall looking at their website where most stuff seemed to be out of production.

 

For a period my regular train home was the 18:02 from Liverpool St , which was the last stand of the 312s on the GE .To model that accurately would require 3 x 312, and a 12' station platform to take it. More realistically 2x 312 would give an 8' train length. Space and cost then become issues . Chelmsford is at first blush a very interesting simple prototype with lots of action possible. But you would need a minimum 18' to 20' length to attempt it as a continuous circuit  even compressed to take only 8 car formations. And the time and cost implications of building up a fleet of at least half a dozen 8 car trains with a fiddleyard to take them are fairly serious

 

But if you don't do that, it won't be credible as a model of the GE suburban network. A layout based on two or three 4 car EMUs buzzing around on their own doesn't really cut the mustard.

 

It's easy for someone not working in 4mm to say "just do some modelling" but quite a lot of this stuff has never been made as a kit, and many of the kits that have been produced in the past are no longer available .

 

The space implications alone make me think that this kind of subject is not really practical for most people in 4mm, and perhaps it is best attempted in a much smaller scale, which at the moment would have to be N

 

There are reasons why my main home layout is limited to 2 and 3 car DMUs

 

(But clambering back on topic , 3rd rail modellers now have a 4VEP to play with. And they don't need to solder up OHLE)

Edited January 17, 2023 by Ravenser

[John M Upton]

7 hours ago, Ravenser said:

(But clambering back on topic , 3rd rail modellers now have a 4VEP to play with. And they don't need to solder up OHLE)

 

Well, something vaguely like a VEP, it was a bit of a curates egg with a lot of issues when it first appeared.  The Bachmann 2-EPB and 4-CEP (plus the SWT Class 450 if you want something a bit more modern) showed how it should have been done and I could have sworn there was supposed to be a 2-HAP on the way but that seems to have been forgotten about.

 

N scale on the other hand has a 313 and a 377 coming and Farish may at some point remember they once made a 4-CEP.

[Pete the Elaner]

8 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

I had a hazy memory that Southern Pride had done something, but that it was the 310 (if the kit covers both classes that would explain my recollection)

 

I'm not clear whether and how far Southern Pride are still with us - I recall looking at their website where most stuff seemed to be out of production.

 

For a period my regular train home was the 18:02 from Liverpool St , which was the last stand of the 312s on the GE .To model that accurately would require 3 x 312, and a 12' station platform to take it. More realistically 2x 312 would give an 8' train length. Space and cost then become issues . Chelmsford is at first blush a very interesting simple prototype with lots of action possible. But you would need a minimum 18' to 20' length to attempt it as a continuous circuit  even compressed to take only 8 car formations. And the time and cost implications of building up a fleet of at least half a dozen 8 car trains with a fiddleyard to take them are fairly serious

 

But if you don't do that, it won't be credible as a model of the GE suburban network. A layout based on two or three 4 car EMUs buzzing around on their own doesn't really cut the mustard.

 

It's easy for someone not working in 4mm to say "just do some modelling" but quite a lot of this stuff has never been made as a kit, and many of the kits that have been produced in the past are no longer available .

 

The space implications alone make me think that this kind of subject is not really practical for most people in 4mm, and perhaps it is best attempted in a much smaller scale, which at the moment would have to be N

 

There are reasons why my main home layout is limited to 2 and 3 car DMUs

 

(But clambering back on topic , 3rd rail modellers now have a 4VEP to play with. And they don't need to solder up OHLE)

 

There are places on the GE which can lend themselves for inspiration, but you may not want to model them accurately. How many of us do copy a real location though?

Maryland is in a cutting, squeezed in between 2 roads less than 8' apart in 4mm scale. Many trains are too long for the station but those ones don't stop anyway. It is hardly the most interesting for anyone who likes shunting though.

Hythe in Colchester had a coal yard until the late 90s. The problem with modelling this accurately is that it is very open & the interesting part of the area is St Botolph's triangle which you could not even attempt. Apart from Colchester's 08 popping over occasionally, the only stock was EMUs. Even the Clacton line regularly sees 12 coach trains.

 

While neither may appeal as they are, most of us don't model real locations anyway. Few start off by building a main line layout & most layouts are heavily compressed too, so a 4 coach unit would be a good way for somebody to get into the hobby.

I would have loved a 309 when I was younger & would still welcome one now. I would rather have had one of those than a green steam loco, which I never did & never will see running in service.

[No Decorum]

41 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

 

… I could have sworn there was supposed to be a 2-HAP on the way but that seems to have been forgotten about.

 

6061 (S 61259/75379) – Bachmann 31-390 arrived with me on 16th. August, 2021.

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

 

Hythe in Colchester had a coal yard until the late 90s. The problem with modelling this accurately is that it is very open & the interesting part of the area is St Botolph's triangle which you could not even attempt. Apart from Colchester's 08 popping over occasionally, the only stock was EMUs. Even the Clacton line regularly sees 12 coach trains.

 

 

 

St Botolphs might work, if there is a legitimate reason for a loco to appear on a bit of freight from time to time. Pep up the operation with a 2 unit train dividing /joining to serve both Clacton and Walton, and a reasonable variety of EMUS (eg 312/321/360 ) and you have a reasonable basis for a layout . Especially if trains have in effect to cross there because of conflicting movements at a junction outside

 

But your killer is that need for an 8' long station to take 2 x 4 car units , and a fiddle yard that does the same

 

Go to a provincial conurbation, and you can potentially drop back to 2 x 3 car units, and only 6' is required. at each end . This starts to make the whole thing more practical , especially as the railway is much more likely to run as  single unit trains off-peak . Coupling up units for the peak, and dropping back to single units off peak adds to the operation. This is why the aborted club project was set in West Yorkshire -  potentially 4 types of unit, and max 6 car formations

 

The spread of electrification in the NW may open up possibilities there - I'm sure many of the lines now electrified  don't run 8 car trains through the day and some might be 4 car trains even in the peak .

 

And the Southern 3rd rail network has the advantage that it's close to a network electrification, and a lot of lesser lines that don't have to run 8 and 12 car trains are in fact electrified. So 2 x 4VEP (or 4CEP) need only be one part of the scene - other trains may be shorter. So only one or two platforms and one or two fiddle yard roads need be that long.  Hornby's provision of a 2 HAL and 2BIL is clever - you can run a train of units that's under 4' long . Run a 5 BEL , and you still have a main line looking layout that doesn't need platforms and fiddle yard roads much longer than 5'

 

But I still think that if you want to model a multiple unit railway that habitually runs units in multiple you are probably best going to a small scale like N

[Ravenser]

3 hours ago, John M Upton said:

 

Well, something vaguely like a VEP, it was a bit of a curates egg with a lot of issues when it first appeared.  The Bachmann 2-EPB and 4-CEP (plus the SWT Class 450 if you want something a bit more modern) showed how it should have been done and I could have sworn there was supposed to be a 2-HAP on the way but that seems to have been forgotten about.

 

N scale on the other hand has a 313 and a 377 coming and Farish may at some point remember they once made a 4-CEP.

 

The 4-VEP has had it's "issues" sorted out and is re-released as part of the current range. We should surely judge the model on how it is now and what a purchaser will get today, rather than by what was said about it a decade ago .

 

The Triang Southern EMU was "vaguely like a 3SUB" but no modern model from anyone is anything other than a scale model of a particular prototype , even if a few have "issues". Even those are more accurate than anything Lima managed.

 

3rd rail modellers will have 4-VEPs from Hornby to buy, and this is a widespread general service unit. I'm not sure when Bachmann last released their EMUs. (Indeed Bachmann have rather backed away from multiple units where 10-15 years ago they had a very strong product range) . There were real hopes and aspirations for 3rd rail modelling a decade or more ago - they seem to have fallen by the wayside a bit.

 

And if we are talking about models with "issues", then what do we make about the situation with 101s?

 

Bachmann has re-released their 101 at an RRP of £285 for a 2 car unit. Bachmann Autumn 2022 incl 101   It's widely felt to have significant errors in the bodyside. Hornby are releasing the ex Lima 101 as a Strathclyde PTE unit Hornby D+E incl Strathclyde 101   at an RRP of £135. This model also has bodyshell  issues even if it has long been felt it looks very much like a 101.

 

Mechanically both are DCC ready with pickup from both bogies and modern drives. I can see no difference in performance between my Hornby 101 and my Bachmann 108 - both run beautifully and have done over many years. Lights are essentially irrelevant: units of that era had only a dim yellow glow from low wattage bulbs, visible only when pitch black.

 

It's a hell of a price difference. I suspect this one comes down to livery , but I can't see many people impulse purchasing a £285 DMU

[MikeParkin65]

On 12/01/2023 at 20:23, Ravenser said:

 

The Rapido  Jones Goods is £220 upwards: Rapido Jones Goods  . That won't be discounted in the way Hornby is routinely discounted, because you are asked to order direct from Rapido

 

No criticism of the project is meant, but the real thing was only sighted south of Perth on 1950s railtours, and I don't think it's ever been south of either Berwick or Carlisle .

Apart from the obvious invocation of 'Rule 1' to justify purchase the Jones Goods got as far south as Bedfordshire for filming purposes. There are some cracking photo's of it both on location and during its journey back north (via the S&C I believe) .   

[eldomtom2]

5 hours ago, Ravenser said:

But your killer is that need for an 8' long station to take 2 x 4 car units , and a fiddle yard that does the same

Or you could run 1 x 4-car units. It's not like loco-hauled stock tends to be full length in model form anyway...

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, MikeParkin65 said:

Apart from the obvious invocation of 'Rule 1' to justify purchase the Jones Goods got as far south as Bedfordshire for filming purposes. There are some cracking photo's of it both on location and during its journey back north (via the S&C I believe) .   

I'm normally very disciplined about buying anything that falls outside my usual modelling era and area, but this one I just couldn't resist, and as there's not much that does "fit" loco-wise this year, it wasn't an either/or decision or a budget-busting extravagance....

 

I feel a number of ideas for imaginary railtours developing. I always knew I'd eventually find a use for that maroon Devon Belle Observation car that was too cheap to leave behind at a swapmeet 😀

 

Rule One, but without going too daft about it?

 

John

Edited January 17, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[wombatofludham]

With regard to EMUs. I'll just park this.



Now before everyone piles in, it's a Britannia Pacific Class 312 in the experimental WMPTE yellow, taken from a video on my Wednesford layout.  I understand and get that BP models are at a price many wouldn't want to pay, being hand built and in this case using components Peter designed and makes (it's a mix of resin and brass) but I funded this purchase by selling off all the "nice to have" and "rule 1" stuff I'd bought but hardly run, and a lot of older models which I had replaced over the years with newer models so were stuck in the loft.  A ruthless cull netted more than enough to commission this model, and put enough aside to commission a Class 310 I've pre-ordered which he is designing up, hopefully to be started on in the spring.  

I know I would not have been able to match Peter's expertise in making this model, or painting it up, although I have made a start on a DC Kits Class 304 in banger blue, so was happy to go for this option.  As I say, I realise that custom build prices are going to be very difficult for many, but it might be something to consider if you have a load of "nice to have" stuff clogging up your model railway room you wouldn't miss if you sold them off.

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, eldomtom2 said:

Or you could run 1 x 4-car units. It's not like loco-hauled stock tends to be full length in model form anyway...

 

 

That has all the credibility of a 4 coach Flying Scotsman...  (You could get away with a 4 coach Bradford portion of something hauled by a 2-6-4T...)

 

Ignoring the fundamental characteristics of a prototype is a bad start if you want a layout to look credible - it certainly used to be the case than no serious exhibition layout would run a visibly short HST or Pendolino...

 

Compression from 12 cars to 8 cars will be necessary - I'm not advocating full length formations , but if you are modelling a commuter railway of any significance in the South East , I'm afraid you have to go to 8 cars to look sensible

[stewartingram]

20 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

Unfortunately the kits are not readily available... DC Kits having decided that particular game ain't worth the candle and left all trhe stuff in a storage container

 

Ciontemplate the idea of scratchbuilding 2 x Class 333 units to a decent standard, and swallow , hard. Don't even know where you'd source the drawings. (Some joker will now assure us that all you need to do is rush around Shipley station with a tape measure and notebook for an hour or two ... Simples)

 

To the best of my knowledge no 4mm kits for the Clacton units AM9, or the 306s in any condition , or Class 312 have ever been produced . Or the 313/314/315 series. It's just about possible to do the job for the WCML north of Watford and bits of Strathcydle , but elsewhere there are severe challenges.

 

I know of at least one group of brave souls intending to hack one or more 360s out of Bachmann 350s, but I've not heard of anyone having actually done so

 

A certain unmentionable outfit are pretty well your only resource if you require InterCity high soeed units

AM9 and 306 both available as 3D prints. I also have a card kit for a 306, in my Roundtoit file. I've had the ok from the manufacturer to scan it so that I can use the scan to produce a model in plastikard.