Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[john new]

18 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Something that came out yesterday is

 

Almost a quarter of registered Covid deaths are people who are not dying from the disease, new official figures show, 

 

Something that has confused me is that despite other countries seemingly having far greater issues with hospitals being over run and mass burials, the UK which was also in a bad state seemed to be affected far greater with deaths from covid. Certainly with some countries due to either political or lack of testing are seriously under reporting how much covid is affecting their death rate, but when you look at countries with similar size populations and an open reporting system, the numeric difference seems not to add up to the reports we have seen on the media

 

I have always thought that this is all down to the way deaths are reported and perhaps in some societies doctors may for various compassionate reasons alter the cause of death

 

30 odd years ago my mother developed liver cancer, within 6 weeks of the diagnosis she died. to all it was the cancer which killed her though on the death certificate it stated she died from bronchitis

 

Now if this research is to be believed the current rate of those who have died within a 28 days of a positive covid test is 127,161  23% (the number quoted) 29,247 of people who died with covid but not of covid. The real number of people dying of covid is just under 100,000.

 

Perhaps we will never know the real number, but a better way of looking at it is the excess deaths over the normal death rate, it certainly shows the effect covid had

 

The dilemma with the reporting of deaths as COVID related if within 28 days of diagnosis isn't new as @hayfield mentions with his mother. With my father similar circumstances back in 1972; he was always weak with lung problems due to having had TB as a teenager, got the flu and ended up going into hospital. Seriously weakened by the flu he ended up having a heart attack (which was final cause of death), the attack brought on by the incessant coughing. I can't remember what went on his death certificate but even if it wasn't recorded as flu back in the 1970s the true cause was long-term weakening due to TB, exacerbated by flu. Long-TB is not a modern thing due to medical advances (Long COVID appears to be) but having seen the impact at first hand of it on an individual's health, and the knock-on family impact, I can fully see why the medical profession are currently using 28 days. 

[Hobby]

52 minutes ago, alastairq said:

Well it seems , a significant proportion of the 'Care' industry doesn't involve large companies, or even, small companies....but rather,  a small number of individuals who need to care for just one closely related individual.

In other words, they [the family, usually?] employ Carers to look after that one closely related individual.

 

It appears that it was many/some of these small operations that seemed reluctant to provide their employees with appropriate PPE, or testing.  There seem to be rather a lot of these small operations, too?

 

If you are designated as needing a Carer it's the local council who assess and alocate the funds. That can be done in a variety of ways, direct payment, etc., in effect you can get the money and then employ someone to do the caring, get the money and then employ a Care Agency to do it or some times the Council itself will arrange it (where there are no close relations to organise it for instance). In the latter two cases the care companies contracted will arrange everything, including PPE and, from our experience with our Care Agency that's what they've done. Where another member of the family employs someone then it will depend on the contract they have with the individual, who are usually self employed and not employed by that person. Again it depends on how it's set up.

 

On the point of vaccines for carers, at the beginning it was down to the Council how proactive they were, my local council, Worcestershire, were one of the first to highlight those of us who care for a disabled spouse/sibling by checking their records of who received a care package and getting us vaccinated quickly, so quickly in fact that I had mine before Jennie! I believe other councils are doing the same thing now.

 

42 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Almost a quarter of registered Covid deaths are people who are not dying from the disease, new official figures show, 

 

I think we've discussed this before and many papers have also taken it up, hence it's impossible to compare like with like when comparing other country's' figures.

 

34 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Made me smile a bit as Germany has its problems between the national government and its various states. 

 

To be fair to our lot the devolved governments and Westminster have done well one this, granted there's been some political points scoring but overall they've done pretty much the same things but with slightly different timings, and the NHS system has worked well... I suspect some other countries would have liked a similar set up! Though again some parts of the Press and some local Mayors were pressing for more localised control so it wasn't all straightforward...

Edited April 15, 2021 by Hobby
Spelling!

[hayfield]

15 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

To be fair to our lot the devolved governments and Westminster have done well one this, granted there's been some political points scoring but overall they've done pretty much the same things but with slightly different timings, and the NHS system has worked well... I suspect some other countries would have liked a similar set up! Though again some parts of the Press and some local Mayors were pressing for more localised control so it wasn't all straightforward...

 

Our greatest asset is the NHS, then each of the devolved governments and English medical executives are seemingly in constant dialog, as for the politicians I think they are being kept in line by the health professionals, I don't think they have ever been so unified !!  I think all those involved in our countries response has been excellent given the  extreme circumstances we all have faced. Of course some thinks could have been done better, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. Certainly others wish their own countries were in our position 

[Andy Hayter]

57 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Something that came out yesterday is

 

Almost a quarter of registered Covid deaths are people who are not dying from the disease, new official figures show, 

 

Something that has confused me is that despite other countries seemingly having far greater issues with hospitals being over run and mass burials, the UK which was also in a bad state seemed to be affected far greater with deaths from covid. Certainly with some countries due to either political or lack of testing are seriously under reporting how much covid is affecting their death rate, but when you look at countries with similar size populations and an open reporting system, the numeric difference seems not to add up to the reports we have seen on the media

 

I have always thought that this is all down to the way deaths are reported and perhaps in some societies doctors may for various compassionate reasons alter the cause of death

 

30 odd years ago my mother developed liver cancer, within 6 weeks of the diagnosis she died. to all it was the cancer which killed her though on the death certificate it stated she died from bronchitis

 

Now if this research is to be believed the current rate of those who have died within a 28 days of a positive covid test is 127,161  23% (the number quoted) 29,247 of people who died with covid but not of covid. The real number of people dying of covid is just under 100,000.

 

Perhaps we will never know the real number, but a better way of looking at it is the excess deaths over the normal death rate, it certainly shows the effect covid had

 

As was discussed quite a long time ago and probably in one of the earlier now-locked threads.  People do not die from Covid.  They die from things that covid has exacerbated/ caused - pulmonary failure, heart failure, renal failure, thrombosis etc..

 

Just as people do not die of a car crash.  They die of injuries resulting from a car crash.

 

Whether Covid is assigned as cause of death (when originally discussed this was not strictly speaking allowed) can therefore be a whole can of worms.   This is why there are all sorts of measures in the UK as to how many people have died as a result of covid - 28 day rule, excess deaths, ONS analysis of death certificates to see if Covid is mentioned as a factor (rather than cause)

[john new]

18 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

If you are designated as needing a Carer it's the local council who assess and alocate the funds. That can be done in a variety of ways, direct payment, etc., in effect you can get the money and then employ someone to do the caring, get the money and then employ a Care Agency to do it or some times the Council itself will arrange it (where there are no close relations to organise it for instance). In the latter two cases the care companies contracted will arrange everything, including PPE and, from our experience with our Care Agency that's what they've done. Where another member of the family employs someone then it will depend on the contract they have with the individual, who are usually self employed and not employed by that person. Again it depends on how it's set up.

 

On the point of vaccines for carers, at the beginning it was down to the Council how proactive they were, my local council, Worcestershire, were one of the first to highlight those of us who care for a disabled spouse/sibling by checking their records of who received a care package and getting us vaccinated quickly, so quickly in fact that I had mine before Jennie! I believe other councils are doing the same thing now.

 

 

I think we've discussed this before and many papers have also taken it up, hence it's impossible to compare like with like when comparing other country's' figures.

 

 

To be fair to our lot the devolved governments and Westminster have done well one this, granted there's been some political points scoring but overall they've done pretty much the same things but with slightly different timings, and the NHS system has worked well... I suspect some other countries would have liked a similar set up! Though again some parts of the Press and some local Mayors were pressing for more localised control so it wasn't all straightforward...

It is also about defining carer/the care profession. My elderly mother (97) does not need a carer in the medical sense but does need some domestic assistance. Her private sector maid/cleaner hasn't been recently, as I doubt she could afford child care on the low hourly rate paid whilst the schools were shut. Her job is exactly as @Hobby describes, small employer, low wages and is part of the care support industry but not how a carer would be described within the government descriptions.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

That sounds like the real world as I think I know it. Such matters may work fine in large concerns with union representation, but a C21 farm is a tiny group of people. The whistleblower would find himself unemployable in his local community, I bet. 

It certainly does sound like the employer is a bit of an ar......empty space.....hole.

 

Most farms are professional outfits and run exactly as a large company would be, they have to be or we don’t get subs or contracts with supply companies, they squeeze hard and need a well run source.

 

Maybe it is a small one man farm with the employee being casual labour, best left alone and I know,people,will say “it’s hard finding a job” but do you really want to perpetuate virtual slave labour?

[alastairq]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

If you are designated as needing a Carer it's the local council who assess and alocate the funds. That can be done in a variety of ways, direct payment, etc., in effect you can get the money and then employ someone to do the caring, get the money and then employ a Care Agency to do it or some times the Council itself will arrange it (where there are no close relations to organise it for instance).

Indeed, it is what my Ex has done with S&H....Council only too happy to pay up, more or less...saves them a lot of hassle.

The example I quoted, the family directly employs [my neighbour] and a couple of others.... [Not self employed!]

[John M Upton]

Just tried the online booking system again for my jab, still utterly hopeless...

Edited April 15, 2021 by John M Upton

[woodenhead]

11 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Just tried the online booking system again for my jab, still utterly hopeless...

Text from my Doctors yesterday afternoon inviting me for my second jab, clicked on the link, booked in for Saturday afternoon 5 minutes later.

 

I've a 30 second walk to make just before my allotted time to get to the medical centre.

 

Local solutions work better than the national system?

 

[boxbrownie]

We got a call from our doctors today, in for 2nd jab next week.....11 weeks after first......and to think I was getting worried the system didn’t work 

[Hobby]

5 hours ago, alastairq said:

 

The example I quoted, the family directly employs [my neighbour] and a couple of others.... [Not self employed!]

 

We looked at that option but things get very complicated if you choose to employ and pay someone direct. You are responsible for a lot more than just paying them. Hence we used a care agency. 

[chris p bacon]

4 hours ago, John M Upton said:

Just tried the online booking system again for my jab, still utterly hopeless...

I've booked at least 10 appointments for elderly neighbours (and me) and not had an issue with any. All had both jabs booked at the same time and at locations no further than 5 miles away (for half the appointments I took them anyway)

 

[boxbrownie]

13 hours ago, Hobby said:

 

We looked at that option but things get very complicated if you choose to employ and pay someone direct. You are responsible for a lot more than just paying them. Hence we used a care agency. 

Same here, hell’s bells the paperwork and effort required to do it properly put us off (even though we really wanted to employee a couple of local carers we know), in the end we just went to a care agency/provider.....It costs a bit more but it’s a straight forward contract.

[AY Mod]

A good overview of where we are now in the UK with regard to current domestic risk levels.

 

 

[brianusa]

Herd immunity will be hard to achieve unless members of the herd heed such advice and act on that advice.  Up to now there are a lot of strays intent on satisfying their immediate desires with little thought to the future, their own well being or ever becoming normal ever again.  A learned observer recently said that it can't be done on vaccines alone!

    Brian.

[bradfordbuffer]

7 hours ago, AY Mod said:

A good overview of where we are now in the UK with regard to current domestic risk levels.

 

 

Doesn't stop here stupidity....no cure for that...but flip side we have to live......

[Dunsignalling]

The most important, but thoughtlessly used, word in all this is "normal".

 

Lots of people seem to be anticipating a return to "normal" as it was lived in the summer of 2018 in a matter of weeks, but if too many of them behave accordingly, we'll likely be back to square one by August Bank Holiday. 

 

Hopefully, the message is gradually getting through that, if we are to avoid flip-flopping in and out of lockdowns (be they national or more localised) for years to come, we ought not to attempt more than about 75% of "normality" any time soon, and 100% possibly never.  

 

Hints coming out of Australia suggest their government doesn't expect a full resumption of international travel until 2024. If proved correct, that will imply massive change/shrinkage in the industry that facilitates it, and the end of regular and cheap air travel for the masses for good. In such a scenario, I would expect long-haul to revert to being a once-in-a-decade special experience for most of us.

 

John

Edited April 17, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

I was a little surprised by the figure of 70% of the population carrying Covid antibodies, either through vaccination or past infection, being cited as providing herd immunity.

 

Most previous estimates I've read put the figure at more like 85%.

 

John

[NIK]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I was a little surprised by the figure of 70% of the population carrying Covid antibodies, either through vaccination or past infection, being cited as providing herd immunity.

 

Most previous estimates I've read put the figure at more like 85%.

 

John

Hi,

 

Isn't the percentage going to depend on how a COVID variant 'behaves' when ingested by people with antibodies to an earlier variant. The 70% figure was mentioned early in the pandemic in the UK as well.

 

Maybe there is now real data on how the known variants are dealt with in the bodies of those people with COVID antibodies who ingest them.

 

Also there is herd immunity values given certain conditions which for example could be:

With mask wearing in indoor public spaces.

With booster COVID vaccinations every year.

With booster COVID vaccinations whenever a significant new variant is found.

With COVID testing with a negative result needed before air travel.

With an efficient track, trace and isolate system.

With a high percentage of the 7.8billion people in the world vaccinated.

 

Regards

 

Nick

 

 

[hayfield]

If not mixed messages we are getting conflicting stories, one day a report states its the lockdown which is reducing infection rates, the next another report the following day stated its the vaccination roll out which now is dampening the virus, no doubt both do have an effect on curbing the virus.

 

Does herd immunity actually work ? or if it works with some viruses does it work with all ?

 

Certainly with infection cases we are where we were back at the start of September, but we are testing far more people. Also far more effort is being spent on dampening outbreaks of the most virulent strains. On the plus side we have weathered school children going back to school. Given the most active group (young people) will be the last to be vaccinated, should we expect infection rates to remain quite steady, in March they flatlined then declined, we are now seeing another flatline

 

Patients both being admitted and in hospitals are still on the decline, hopefully these rates will continue to decline as they both lag behind infections and those at greatest risk are obtaining immunity

 

Deaths are also starting to level out and are back to those we saw in the middle of last September, these do lag infections and I guess reflect the infection rates and hospitalisations of a couple of months ago.

 

We are now seeing some backlash over Covid passports, firstly for foreign holidays these passports are an enabler, all you have to do is be vaccinated or have taken a series of tests

 

Secondly for mass events, it must be a case if we want these events but do not want want an upsurge in infections, there must be some form of testing.

 

Then the biggest bone of contention, should health and care workers be vaccinated for the benefit of those they look after?

[Oldddudders]

On 14/04/2021 at 02:24, monkeysarefun said:

Many Hollywood movies have relocated shooting here due to the freedom of movement and lack of covid restrictions compared to other parts of the world. As a result this has given windfall opportunities to local film production companies and support staff which had been badly affected over the last 12 months like similar organisations throughout the world were ands still are. 

Filming in Oz has always had $ advantages. A couple of decades ago, a friend in the UK tv ad game flew, with a couple of colleagues, Business Class to OZ, filmed a commercial and presented the client with a bill substantially smaller than would have been the case using British actors and unionised film crews. Almost certainly, even if Covid ceases to dominate our lives, Hollywood will have found the price advantages in Oz attractive, so longer term filming relationships are likely. 

[boxbrownie]

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

The most important, but thoughtlessly used, word in all this is "normal".

 

Lots of people seem to be anticipating a return to "normal" as it was lived in the summer of 2018 in a matter of weeks, but if too many of them behave accordingly, we'll likely be back to square one by August Bank Holiday. 

 

I imagine most have seen the BBC footage from Leeds yesterday, most behaving themselves early during the day (but very doubtful it was truly socially distanced) but later in the evening it was “back to normal”......loads of drunken hoards of youngsters/20 somethings whatever, being very liberal with their friendliness and some of course being carried home, no doubt some by strangers.....as was normal!

[monkeysarefun]

4 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Filming in Oz has always had $ advantages. A couple of decades ago, a friend in the UK tv ad game flew, with a couple of colleagues, Business Class to OZ, filmed a commercial and presented the client with a bill substantially smaller than would have been the case using British actors and unionised film crews. Almost certainly, even if Covid ceases to dominate our lives, Hollywood will have found the price advantages in Oz attractive, so longer term filming relationships are likely. 

 

Holly wood has filmed a surprising number of movies here due to cost benefits and  their enthusiasm for using Australian crew.  Most locations you would never guess were actually  in Australia. For instance the action sequences in Hacksaw Ridge, the WW2 movie about the storming of Okinawa were filmed entirely in a cow paddock near Bringelly, 20km from here.

 

Wolverine opening scenes set in a Yukon style landscape in the middle of winter were not filmed in Canada or Alaska as you'd expect, but  at Picton, 15km from here, with fake snow and CGI mountains added in behind the pub.

 

Unbroken, directed by Angelina Jolie is the story about American Olympian Louie Zamperini who was captured by the Japanese in WW2. The scenes depicting his early life in small town America, showing him competing in running events was not filmed in small town America. Instead Angelina and cast flew down here and filmed them at the Camden sports oval, about 10km from here. They removed the Rugby League posts and the cricket pitch, relaid the gravel running track with fancy red sand and carefully white-lined it and covered the bare metal stands with timber to give it the bleacher look. Many extras sitting in the stands dressed in 1930's coats and hats are locals baking in the 42 degrees that the filming day got up to.

When filming was over, the fancy sand was removed and the gravel replaced, the timber was torn off the stands and left in a huge pile to go to landfill.

 

Meanwhile back at covid world, we've had our first death attributed to the AZ vaccine, which comes on top of two reported cases of blood clots. Since the state has had 54 deaths due to covid in total, this blood clot death is quite a significant statistic, but since we don't have much of a vaccine rollout happening right now its pretty academic.

 

 

[hayfield]

I have noticed that new infections have been on the increase over the past few days, thankfully in much the the country the virus is in remission / at a low level so the increases are very slight, it may be down to the recent relaxing of rules and therefore expected. Thankfully hospitalisations and deaths are still in decline and the vaccine rollout whilst slowing a bit is starting to be rolled out to the under 50's. We now have those most at risk with at least the basic protection.

 

I saw Israel stating the country now has herd immunity, though experts from other countries seem to question this

 

Whilst we have seen India struggle for a few weeks with increasing infections, we now seem concerned about their variant, were we too slow about making it a red zone, plus why wait till Saturday to start enforcing it ?

 

We had our texts yesterday to book our second jabs yesterday and will have them Saturday, which will be 10 weeks after the first

[Reorte]

My brother's had his first jab, first person I know to have had the Moderna one.