Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[vaughan45]

The decline in the last week appears to be as a result of the the schools closing at the end of the week prior to Easter. I expect the rates to start to rise next week, due to those who didn't keep to the rules during the Easter weekend working their way into the data and this will accelerate the following week due to the the easing of lockdown tomorrow and also schools returning after their Easter break.  

Edited April 11, 2021 by vaughan45
Clarity

[simontaylor484]

11 hours ago, jonny777 said:

My thoughts on easing of restrictions, is that avid travellers should look at the stats and keep away from areas which have high infection rates. 

 

These are the areas with rates continuing above 75 per 100k. 

 

Clackmannanshire, Barnsley, Wakefield, Luton, Hull, Leicester, Doncaster, West Lothian, Leeds, Bradford, Renfrewshire, and Sheffield. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?_ga=2.146590588.97899327.1618130874-1772697453.1618130874

As a resident of Wakefield area the figures are half that of Clackmannanshire. Our local paper publishes figues for areas around the council wards parts of inner city Wakefield are a lot higher than the outlying towns generally speaking 

Wakefieldexpress is the source

[Phil Parker]

3 hours ago, hayfield said:

As for greater mixing, yes you are right, it is thought that the virus will spread a bit, but its from quite a low ebb in most places, whilst the percentages may be highish, its from a very low starting point

 

According to the Zoe app, cases near me have been climbing slowly for a week. From a low base, but definitely climbing. 

 

My guess is (based on the most recent official models showing another wave as bad as the one we have just had) lockdown in September.

 

Today, I've finally started clearing the vast majority of my nice clothing out to gain space on the basis that it's not been worn for a year and I don't anticipate wearing it anytime soon. The problem with lockdown is that you can't move it to charity shops. Even if they reopen, they will be inundated with donations. 

[LBRJ]

I hope the shops are inundated with clothes!

I seem to be a point where almost everything I own is now  relegated to being classed as "work wear" - and  then only for painting in or the worst of jobs

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, vaughan45 said:

The decline in the last week appears to be as a result of the the schools closing at the end of the week prior to Easter. I expect the rates to start to rise next week, due to those who didn't keep to the rules during the Easter weekend working their way into the data and this will accelerate the following week due to the the easing of lockdown tomorrow and also schools returning after their Easter break.  

 

Given that there was a delay of two to three weeks after the children went back to school and mixed, I doubt that infections would decline that quickly, infact I think the decline restarted prior to the term ending. No doubt it will have some impact, but infections certainly in the early days of the holliday would have continued

[hayfield]

26 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

According to the Zoe app, cases near me have been climbing slowly for a week. From a low base, but definitely climbing. 

 

My guess is (based on the most recent official models showing another wave as bad as the one we have just had) lockdown in September.

 

Today, I've finally started clearing the vast majority of my nice clothing out to gain space on the basis that it's not been worn for a year and I don't anticipate wearing it anytime soon. The problem with lockdown is that you can't move it to charity shops. Even if they reopen, they will be inundated with donations. 

 

Looking at the South West, South, South East and East Anglia, plus large parts of Wales and Scotland, the latest daily data shows infections are still in decline. See the latest chart

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

[bradfordbuffer]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

According to the Zoe app, cases near me have been climbing slowly for a week. From a low base, but definitely climbing. 

 

My guess is (based on the most recent official models showing another wave as bad as the one we have just had) lockdown in September.

 

Today, I've finally started clearing the vast majority of my nice clothing out to gain space on the basis that it's not been worn for a year and I don't anticipate wearing it anytime soon. The problem with lockdown is that you can't move it to charity shops. Even if they reopen, they will be inundated with donations. 

Oh joy Lockdown 4.0!....and 5.0 etc

Brace for mad monday on the 12th April...thanks but I wont be joining in...

I've enjoyed social distancing for years....society just catching up.

[Reorte]

On the Zoe app point, throughout most of last year I regarded that as the most accurate estimate we had. Cases vastly outnumbered testing capacity. Now I'm not so sure. I'm not saying I disagree with it, I honestly wouldn't like to say one way or the other.

 

[Hobby]

9 hours ago, bradfordbuffer said:

Oh joy Lockdown 4.0!....and 5.0 etc

 

I really hope not, and unless one of the variations proves resistant to vaccines I doubt they'll happen...

 

Whilst I follow what is happening in my area I find even weekly figures distorting, a couple of weeks ago our stats soared but the weeks before and after they returned low levels, so probably what happened is that one household got it, didn't spread it, and it made that one week look terrible! Hence I prefer to look at larger areas than simply my local one, either the whole district (over 100k people) or county figures, at which point local blips are smoothed out.

[boxbrownie]

9 hours ago, bradfordbuffer said:

Oh joy Lockdown 4.0!....and 5.0 etc

Brace for mad monday on the 12th April...thanks but I wont be joining in...

I've enjoyed social distancing for years....society just catching up.

Have you seen the TV this morning, showing all the peeps queuing up waiting for the shops to open?

 

Somehow I feel social distancing is going out the window as soon as the doors open!

[hayfield]

8 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

I really hope not, and unless one of the variations proves resistant to vaccines I doubt they'll happen...

 

Whilst I follow what is happening in my area I find even weekly figures distorting, a couple of weeks ago our stats soared but the weeks before and after they returned low levels, so probably what happened is that one household got it, didn't spread it, and it made that one week look terrible! Hence I prefer to look at larger areas than simply my local one, either the whole district (over 100k people) or county figures, at which point local blips are smoothed out.

 

You are spot on with this one, a family of 4 testing positive 3 months ago was the norm, even at the start of Feb would have little effect on daily or weekly figures. certainly in the southern part of the country now it will distort local figures greatly.

 

This is also where the R number becomes less important. As has been said it will never be negative so providing its below 1 its in decline, we have gone from a 7 day average of infections in Jan of 32'000 to 3,200 by the 1st of April with the R number roughly the same. and as of yesterday infections dropped 30% in the past 7 days. I assume the patients admitted to hospital becomes more important, which is still declining all be it at a slightly lower rate.

 

As many are saying, let the mad rush get out of the way first, but with the infection declining the risk of infection lowers

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

Have you seen the TV this morning, showing all the peeps queuing up waiting for the shops to open to get infected?

 

Somehow I feel social distancing is going out the window as soon as the doors open!

 

[tender]

10 hours ago, Reorte said:

On the Zoe app point, throughout most of last year I regarded that as the most accurate estimate we had. Cases vastly outnumbered testing capacity. Now I'm not so sure. I'm not saying I disagree with it, I honestly wouldn't like to say one way or the other.

 

 

I'm not so sure that its that accurate when you look at specific areas (particularly rural) . The Zoe App estimate seems to consistently under report the actual number of cases in our area. I guess its a function of the number of contributors per head of population for an area.

[hayfield]

18 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

 

 

Why are you so surprised ? Absolutely expected, with places even opening up at midnight, or the likes of Primark opening ay 7 am

 

Large swathes of the UK public have taken this pandemic with a pinch of salt, usually but not entirely down the lines of social mobility plus certain groups just ignoring social distancing, covering most age groups, races and religions. And its no different is most other countries.

 

A lot has been said about social deprivation, certainly this is one of the traits when looking at built up areas, but not in more rural areas. Likewise infections are higher in affluent city areas than in affluent rural areas.

 

I think we all like to think we have kept to the rules, certainly some are far more compliant than others. I have noticed when shopping in Morrisons social distancing by customers is more relaxed recently, but then our area is now doing quite well.

 

The thing to do is to allow people to relax their defences at their own speed, respecting their wishes. Whilst being careful to protect ourselves. Plus I would be far more careful in areas of higher infection, than those with lower infection rates 

 

 

[Oldddudders]

What is quite certain is that the madding crowd who are now unleashed are largely from age-groups yet to be vaccinated. Not good. 

[Rivercider]

With the vaccine rollout in progress and longer daylight hours and better weather this should help reduce infection rates. However I would guess that this will be partly offset with more of the economy opening up. I predict overall infection rates will continue to decline slowly. What happens in the autumn will be interesting, and depending on new variants of the virus I would expect rates to show some increase, hopefully not too much.

 

I think I might still be required to wear a mask on the shop floor at work for some time yet.

 

In the meantime me and Mrs Rivercider have just enjoyed a sea front walk, and a coffee sat outside our favourite cafe bar in the new seating area installed last year, we were the second table to be seated after the re-opening.

 

cheers

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, Oldddudders said:

What is quite certain is that the madding crowd who are now unleashed are largely from age-groups yet to be vaccinated. Not good. 

Yep. All the ones that think they are in no real personal danger.

 

Now that we oldies will no longer dominate (and skew) the statistics, the real impact on younger age groups should be revealed more clearly. Even if the numbers of infections/hospitalisations/deaths cases remain more-or-less as before (and that's a very big if), I suspect the odds are going to look somewhat less rosy....

 

John

[alastairq]

I wonder..........how much of any new increases in infected numbers [especially localised infections]....will be down to the dramatic increase in the numbers who can now get 'instant' tests?  

At home?

Those especially who were/are asymptomatic for covid19, IE those who previously either didn't qualify for a test, or couldn't be bothered with it all?

 

I got my own test kit the other day [and have tested negative]..

 

As a 'pensioner' [IE, a Not-Work]...close to 70 years old, I found that, although supposedly quite 'vulnerable' due to the age demographic I was in [rather than for 'health' reasons] I could not go get a test or three as I didn't 'qualify'.....

I had no way of knowing [without forking out hundreds of pensionquids....of surplus cash I didn't possess]...whether I had covid19 , or had been infected in the past. Or what???

 

All I could do was, to keep away from other folk as much as possible......except for my family 'bubble'.

 

 

[hayfield]

45 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

What is quite certain is that the madding crowd who are now unleashed are largely from age-groups yet to be vaccinated. Not good. 

 

Don't worry the older ones will get going as soon as their bus passes work !!

 

I like to have a nice quiet pub lunch, so I will wait a week or so until the rush subsides 

[woodenhead]

Remember that rumour/fake news story about Bill Gates injecting microchips using a vaccine as cover.

 

Well it seems it wasn't so far fetched, courtesy of DARPA, here we have the Covid spotting microchip:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9460389/Pentagon-scientists-invent-microchip-senses-COVID-19-body-symptoms.html

 

I'm really not sure how I feel about this, it's a chip in your body, seems armed service personnel are equally unsure.

 

The other invention is interesting, using a filter in a dialysis machine as a method of cleaning your blood of Covid which has worked in very sick patients

[MJI]

Staycations mentioned above, done those a few times, sometimes spent doing heavy DIY, or car repairs, or we do day trips to NT properties, or similar. Last year relaid the patio.

 

Will be doing it yet again this year, just so expensive to book anywhere.

 

But next year hopefully book a holiday week away in Wales by the seaside.

[Michael Hodgson]

20 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

I'm really not sure how I feel about this, it's a chip in your body

 

There are chips in my body at last.  The chippy round the corner has been closed for the past year even though they were allowed to open, and only just reopened last week  

[hayfield]

Met up and had a chat with a few friends, the local covid volunteer organiser stopped and joined a brief (socially distanced) chat. This month is mostly about second jabs and there are plenty of vaccine stocks in reserve for these. She has been warned by the local health centre to get her volunteers ready for a boost in 1st time vaccinations in May, far more vaccine is expected then

[Michael Hodgson]

Some friends of mine had their second jab appointments cancelled - I suspect this was just a delay because of temporary supply problems though.

[Oldddudders]

Promptly at 14.30 I was welcomed by Dr Leroi, my dishy 30-something pharmacist, who sat me down and went through a list of questions, marking answers on a sheet I was required to countersign. She then administered the AZ dose, painlessly of course, and I sat for the mandatory 15 mins to ensure no ill-effects. During this time she spent ages entering data for my jab into an online system that obviously records every French Covid jab by date, time, type, batch, name of patient, name of provider, and countless other data, upon which France thrives. I was given an A4 certificate - and a date for my second dose, about 10 weeks. The next patient behind me was a lady at least 10 years older (I'm 72) walking very slowly with two sticks, and apologising to me for her limited mobility. 

 

That's this week's excitement over!