Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Oldddudders]

I consult this page daily to see how well UK is doing. As beast cautions, weekend reporting is a bit fragile - and Wales seemed not to report anything on Friday for some reason - but as Pete points out, the 7-day averages deal with that, and the % decreases all round are currently just brill.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#local-authorities

 

Comparable data is available in France via a news website with a Government feed. Numbers here are not nice at all. 

[MJI]

Actually the Russian vaccine is more a single good jab with deactivated booster.

 

Still not quite as good as the two the UK are using.

[jcm@gwr]

52 minutes ago, MJI said:

Actually the Russian vaccine is more a single good jab with deactivated booster.

 

Still not quite as good as the two the UK are using.

 

But hopefully better than nothing, and (fingers crossed) with few side effects/problems.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, beast66606 said:

10* deaths yesterday according to the Government figures.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

* Note for those who don't check periodically, these figures are normally lower at weekends due to the way the data is captured and reported but over the last few weeks the spike after the weekend has been considerably flatter so the figures for the next few days are going to be interesting and the trend is rapidly downwards.

 

As well as the usual weekend drop in numbers (Saturdays are not normally affected as the day before is usually a working day, which this week was not) There is a not to say some regions are not reporting deaths over the holiday period. So in one way we will not know the true numbers for quite a few days. On the other hand the numbers are still very encouraging

 

In my local authority we had 2 deaths reported yesterday, the first deaths for 7 days, very sad for those involved, but much improved than over the past few months, as are the infection rates. Our Local health authority is also showing a dramatic fall in people being admitted. All good news

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

I consult this page daily to see how well UK is doing. As beast cautions, weekend reporting is a bit fragile - and Wales seemed not to report anything on Friday for some reason - but as Pete points out, the 7-day averages deal with that, and the % decreases all round are currently just brill.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#local-authorities

 

Comparable data is available in France via a news website with a Government feed. Numbers here are not nice at all. 

 

This Kent variant is very nasty, certainly Essex had more deaths in the first 2 months of the year that the previous 9 months, when we were quite lucky being less affected than some areas with the original virus.

 

I see from a report that eastern Europe which escaped a lot of the deaths from covid other nations suffered is now being very badly affected, along with Italy and France being hit hard by the new variants, Germany is also being hard hit as well, though internal pressure is on not closing down

 

I do wonder why others have not followed the UK government when it opted to extend the time period between the two jabs so to maximise the amount of people with a basic level of protection?  Science is showing this method has both worked very well in reducing the numbers being infected and more importantly those being seriously affected and hospitalised. Seemingly increasing the time also increases its effectiveness. Yet even though having increasing numbers being affected, they ignore the quick wins our vaccination process has made ?

 

Have you had your jab yet ? if not have you a date?

[MJI]

49 minutes ago, jcm@gwr said:

 

But hopefully better than nothing, and (fingers crossed) with few side effects/problems.

 

I was doing some digging and there some deactivated vacines and Sputnik was mentioned, but the first dose is similar to OAZ but the second is deactivated.

 

But from real world and tests it appears OAZ keeps antibodying for longer good example is Andrew Lloyd Webber

[Andy Hayter]

18 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

Have you had your jab yet ? if not have you a date?

 

For me it's no and no - although a doctor's appointment at the end of the week may get us onto her list.  There is movement however since the (not) local vaccination centres are at least showing some available vaccination slot - albeit several weeks away.  

[Hobby]

25 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

I do wonder why others have not followed the UK government when it opted to extend the time period between the two jabs so to maximise the amount of people with a basic level of protection? 

 

I still get the impression that it's political grandstanding by many EU countries. They can't be seen to follow us. 

[Mark Saunders]

9 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

I still get the impression that it's political grandstanding by many EU countries. They can't be seen to follow us. 

I have the opinion it was better to have the EU inside the tent pissing out!

 

With apologies to LInden Johnson for modifying his quote abut Hoover.

[adb968008]

41 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

I still get the impression that it's political grandstanding by many EU countries. They can't be seen to follow us. 

Austria to buy Sputnik

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/30/austria-in-talks-to-purchase-sputnik-v-vaccine-from-russia-says-chancellor-kurz

 

Lets hope they trust it more than Astra Zeneca...

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/10/no-indication-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-led-to-austria-death-says-ema
 

and they say its not about Politics... but Politics is power, and is attached to money.. and AZ vaccine is the only one that isnt about money.

 

Edited April 4, 2021 by adb968008

[Oldddudders]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

Have you had your jab yet ? if not have you a date?

Like Andy H, no and no. A week ago there was a website identifying every vac centre, with a phone number. I have rung the number several times to be told "The answerphone for this number does not have a message. Please try later." Another centre a little further away, is known to have no vaccine, as a friend's father and his girlfriend, both past 80, are still waiting. This week I need to visit my pharmacie, where I can consult la belle Docteur Stephanie. She had expected vaccine by mid-month. As I rarely venture out, and then only to an empty supermarket, I am at little risk. 

 

OTOH, Sherry (in Torbay) and I last saw each other 6 months ago tomorrow, which is not much of a marriage! It will probably be several months more before she can visit me here, and I can't expect to go anywhere until double-jabbed. 

[Crisis Rail]

10 die of coronavirus in the UK in a day.

New cases also fall by 27% in a week to 3,423

 

 

[hayfield]

Thankfully for some time people have stopped moaning about the UK's initial response and track & trace, especially referring to others apparently doing much better than us in these areas

 

The real facts are we are all in the same place, struggling in trying to control a pandemic which has reacted in a totally different way  than most experts thought and stretching the abilities of most countries.

 

The facts are every government are struggling the the problems this virus is causing, many who suffered less in the first wave are now being hit hard, especially eastern Europe. For months Germany was held up as one of the better countries and one to emulate. Sadly they and other western EU countries are suffering greatly with the new variants

 

Euronews reporting on Italy and France going into lockdown, Germany checking entrants with it borders with France and the Netherlands, plus the German public are not very pleased with the way their country is being run

 

Germany's president urged his fellow citizens to "pull together" on Saturday, noting the country was enduring a “crisis of trust” amid pandemic restrictions and dissatisfaction over the government’s response.

In a rare address broadcast Saturday, Frank-Walter Steinmeier admitted that "there were mistakes" regarding testing, digital solutions and vaccinations.

 

As the WHO are saying its time we in Europe started helping each other out, at least France are now vaccinating 1 million a day, which must be good news

[Rods_of_Revolution]

On 04/04/2021 at 13:12, adb968008 said:

and they say its not about Politics... but Politics is power, and is attached to money.. and AZ vaccine is the only one that isnt about money.

 

 

AZ are allowed to sell the vaccine at a profit from 1st of July 2021, this will probably include 'booster jabs' in the future too, so to say the AZ vaccine isn't about money is not true. The company has also seen massive public investment which will serve them well into the future, beyond the pandemic. They've also managed to produce impressive pre-tax profits, despite selling the vaccine 'at cost.' So it's not as though they are a charity, they made a business decision to surrender early profit with the belief they'll reap rewards further down the line.

 

Some regulators think there are legitimate reasons for concern regarding the AZ vaccine. Coronavirus poses little to no risk for most younger people, so as younger people begin to take the vaccine the threshold for what is 'safe' gets much higher. It's difficult to justify giving a vaccine to people which is more deadly than the disease it's intended to protect them from. So whilst the AZ blood clotting issue is rare, so is dying of Covid for many younger individuals. Let's not forget that the phase 3 trials are still on going, so there's still plenty more data to be gathered and assessed within the trials alone. These vaccines have been developed, tested and deployed at an unprecidented rate, which comes at an increased risk. If time can be taken to determine the best vaccine, or perhaps whether a vaccine is even necessary, for the lower risk groups, then it's worth it to avoid unnecessary deaths and injuries. As Coronavirus is a much greater threat to the older and more vulnerable demographics, the threshold for a 'safe' vaccine is much lower, which is why many countries are limiting the AZ vaccine to use in those demographics.

 

I also wish to point out that the grouping by age for risk is slightly arbitrary. When someone states that 80-90 year olds have a 1 in 10 chance of dying from COVID-19, this is only true for the group, not the individuals. It's not as though someone is rolling a ten-sided die when an 80-90 year old gets COVID-19 and if the roll is a '1' that person dies. The truth is that there are many more variables, and for most individuals, the risk is far lower than the stated '1 in 10'. Once you move into younger demographics, whilst the risk for the group can be expressed as 1 in X, the true risk for the majority of individuals is far lower. In simple terms, imagine for example a group of 10 people, 9 are fit and healthy, but 1 has a compromised immune system; they all catch Coronavirus and the person with the compromised immune system dies from COVID-19, so the risk to the group is stated as a 1 in 10 chance of dying, despite 90% of the group have a 100% chance of survival. This also goes for the vaccine risk, as the risk for the vaccine side-effects is often stated as 1 in X, with X being the number of vaccines given. This assumes that the vaccine side-effects are equally distributed across all individuals, which they may not be. A side-effect may have near zero prevalence for one demographic, but may be almost a certainty for a particular individual.

 

Calculating risk isn't simple. So when dealing with a relatively new virus and a new vaccine, it's a tricky process to determine whether the vaccine is 'safe' because 'safe' isn't absolute and can in fact vary greatly. There are also many unknown variables, which means any risk models will have a high degree of uncertainty. A variable could be medication people are taking, as the vaccine could be cross-reacting with a particular medication. If that was the case, people taking that medications could be given a different vaccine.

 

Anytime a complex issue is boiled down to 'they're just playing politics' I'm quite skeptical, as the truth is probably as complex as the issue itself.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

 

AZ are allowed to sell the vaccine at a profit from 1st of July 2021, this will probably include 'booster jabs' in the future too, so to say the AZ vaccine isn't about money is not true. The company has also seen massive public investment which will serve them well into the future, beyond the pandemic. They've also managed to produce impressive pre-tax profits, despite selling the vaccine 'at cost.' So it's not as though they are a charity, they made a business decision to surrender early profit with the belief they'll reap rewards further down the line.

 

Some regulators think there are legitimate reasons for concern regarding the AZ vaccine. Coronavirus poses little to no risk for most younger people, so as younger people begin to take the vaccine the threshold for what is 'safe' gets much higher. It's difficult to justify giving a vaccine to people which is more deadly than the disease it's intended to protect them from. So whilst the AZ blood clotting issue is rare, so is dying of Covid for many younger individuals. Let's not forget that the phase 3 trials are still on going, so there's still plenty more data to be gathered and assessed within the trials alone. These vaccines have been developed, tested and deployed at an unprecidented rate, which comes at an increased risk. If time can be taken to determine the best vaccine, or perhaps whether a vaccine is even necessary, for the lower risk groups, then it's worth it to avoid unnecessary deaths and injuries. As Coronavirus is a much greater threat to the older and more vulnerable demographics, the threshold for a 'safe' vaccine is much lower, which is why many countries are limiting the AZ vaccine to use in those demographics.

 

I also wish to point out that the grouping by age for risk is slightly arbitrary. When someone states that 80-90 year olds have a 1 in 10 chance of dying from COVID-19, this is only true for the group, not the individuals. It's not as though someone is rolling a ten-sided die when an 80-90 year old gets COVID-19 and if the roll is a '1' that person dies. The truth is that there are many more variables, and for most individuals, the risk is far lower than the stated '1 in 10'. Once you move into younger demographics, whilst the risk for the group can be expressed as 1 in X, the true risk for the majority of individuals is far lower. In simple terms, imagine for example a group of 10 people, 9 are fit and healthy, but 1 has a compromised immune system; they all catch Coronavirus and the person with the compromised immune system dies from COVID-19, so the risk to the group is stated as a 1 in 10 chance of dying, despite 90% of the group have a 100% chance of survival. This also goes for the vaccine risk, as the risk for the vaccine side-effects is often stated as 1 in X, with X being the number of vaccines given. This assumes that the vaccine side-effects are equally distributed across all individuals, which they may not be. A side-effect may have near zero prevalence for one demographic, but may be almost a certainty for a particular individual.

 

Calculating risk isn't simple. So when dealing with a relatively new virus and a new vaccine, it's a tricky process to determine whether the vaccine is 'safe' because 'safe' isn't absolute and can in fact vary greatly. There are also many unknown variables, which means any risk models will have a high degree of uncertainty. A variable could be medication people are taking, as the vaccine could be cross-reacting with a particular medication. If that was the case, people taking that medications could be given a different vaccine.

 

Anytime a complex issue is boiled down to 'they're just playing politics' I'm quite skeptical, as the truth is probably as complex as the issue itself.

 

I cannot argue with much of what you said, however the latest strains of covid are far more virulent that the early type, affecting both older and younger people in greater numbers and has proved more deadly, so with the new variants there is even more reason for all to be vaccinated !!!  Other brands are also having issues according to one European news agency, but no fuss is being made, the report seems to think some politicians see AZ as an easy/convenient target.

 

Another good side effect is in speeding up the testing and authorisation of medicines. To be quite honest I am rather pleased that Oxford AZ are allowed to make a profit, seemingly people have higher regard for expensive items, I assume its orders after 1st of July, or have AZ got one over the EU ?

[Rods_of_Revolution]

9 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

I cannot argue with much of what you said, however the latest strains of covid are far more virulent that the early type, affecting both older and younger people in greater numbers and has proved more deadly, so with the new variants there is even more reason for all to be vaccinated !!!  Other brands are also having issues according to one European news agency, but no fuss is being made, the report seems to think some politicians see AZ as an easy/convenient target.

 

Another good side effect is in speeding up the testing and authorisation of medicines. To be quite honest I am rather pleased that Oxford AZ are allowed to make a profit, seemingly people have higher regard for expensive items, I assume its orders after 1st of July, or have AZ got one over the EU ?

 

If a variant comes along that is more dangerous to younger people then the theshold for what is deemed 'safe' will be lowered as the risk from Coronavirus increases. You're right that other brands are also having side-effects, however it seems that the issues they're having are more generalised, so whilst the Pfizer vaccine has also produced blood clots, they are of a more common type and with a prevalence similar to what would be expected in unvaccinated individuals. The blood clotting that the AZ vaccine produces is as a result of an auto-immune response which changes the composition of the blood leading to clotting, which is a very rare condition, especially in the group where it has presented, which seems to be females under 55. Out of the 31 cases in Germany, 9 were fatal, so it's a condition which is very serious if not quickly treated. So it's not the blood clotting in general which is an issue, as if you hit your finger with a hammer you'll also develop blood clots, which your body then disolves over time; it's the specific type and the mechanism which produces them which has caused concern in the AZ vaccine.

 

It's not just the EU who have been changing their approach with the AZ vaccine, Canada also suspended its use in under 55s, so this suggests it's not so much a political move on the part of the EU.

 

The AZ vaccine must be supplied at cost for the duration of the pandemic period, a leaked memo showed that the 'pandemic period' expires on July 1st of this year. I assume the price increase will only apply to subsequent orders of the vaccine and for new products such as booster jabs, but I don't know for sure.

 

[Hobby]

As far as I was aware there's still no proven link between any of the vaccines and blood clots? Or do you have a link which shows it @Rods_of_Revolution? 

[pctrainman]

No Poltics and less opinion ? oh excuse me I thought I was on a model rail forum but it seems like i've landed in a fantasy world where the facts of life count for nothing .

[Rods_of_Revolution]

18 minutes ago, Hobby said:

As far as I was aware there's still no proven link between any of the vaccines and blood clots? Or do you have a link which shows it @Rods_of_Revolution? 

 

Scientists tend to use evidence rather than proof, but yes, there is evidence to support the link. It's been widely accepted that the evidence is starting to support a small causal link between the AZ vaccine and Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis. Intitally it was regarded as an unlucky aberration when it was only the German cluster, but then the cluster in Britain occured, which changed most experts' opinion to believe there is a causal link.

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-03/small-casual-link-between-astrazeneca-jab-and-blood-clots-expert-suspects

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by Rods_of_Revolution

[monkeysarefun]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-02/man-who-received-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-has-blood-clots/100046540

[Rods_of_Revolution]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUSKBN2BS1QE
 

Quote

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s health regulator is considering a proposal to restrict the use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in younger people over concerns about very rare blood clots, Channel 4 News reported on Monday.

 

“Two senior sources have told this programme that while the data is still unclear there are growing arguments to justify offering younger people - below the age of 30 at the very least - a different vaccine,” the broadcaster reported.

 

 

[Andy Hayter]

51 minutes ago, Hobby said:

As far as I was aware there's still no proven link between any of the vaccines and blood clots? Or do you have a link which shows it @Rods_of_Revolution? 

 

the key here is that the types of blood clotting are associated with low platelet levels which is not the norm.  So it is not blood clots per se (which if anything are down on normal expectations) but this specific low platelet form of clotting that is beginning to show some links.

 

Now if AZO were the only vaccine in town, it would probably still be very, very much better to be vaccinated than to catch C19.  However given there are alternatives which as yet do not show similar links, then if susceptible groups can be identified, it makes sense that they get the alternative vaccines.

 

All early days yet and important not to jump to too many conclusions but that is how it seems to be viewed at this time.  

[hayfield]

8 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-02/man-who-received-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-has-blood-clots/100046540

 

These conclusions are from the report

 

Small number of cases makes link to vaccine hard to determine 

 

"The serious risk disease and death from COVID-19, if we experience another severe outbreak, … is far greater than the very small potential risk of a very rare clotting disorder associated with the vaccine," he said.

 

It would be better if a virologist(s) could explain the issues in a manner that most could understand, is it cause or coincidence or the fact of what the virus itself actually does ? 

[Hobby]

9 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

All early days yet and important not to jump to too many conclusions but that is how it seems to be viewed at this time.  

 

Yes, as you and John have just said there is no proven link confirmed at this stage, it does look as if there could be, but nothing concrete, the cases have been so small that they cannot prove it. Hence why I questioned Rod's post, and the links he and Monkeys have subsequently put up do not, as yet, prove the link, just that there could be. Which is very different to is which the Medical Community will only use if they can prove it beyond doubt. 

[hayfield]

1 minute ago, Hobby said:

 

Yes, as you and John have just said there is no proven link confirmed at this stage, it does look as if there could be, but nothing concrete, the cases have been so small that they cannot prove it. Hence why I questioned Rod's post, and the links he and Monkeys have subsequently put up do not, as yet, prove the link, just that there could be. Which is very different to is which the Medical Community will only use if they can prove it beyond doubt. 

 

 

I think a lot of us take medicines which have side effects and could do us harm, but then leaving yourself unprotected from a deadly virus is many hundreds of times more likely. Given we very soon will have a third vaccine available, with others to follow perhaps it is wise to err on the side of caution, with those who may be more likely to suffer the effects being offered an alternative. As it is not everyone can have the AZ vaccine and the UK is seemingly far better at making good decisions quickly than some other countries

 

What is strange/needs analysing is that Germany has seen more cases using a much lower number of vaccines ?