Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[teaky]

15 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

I read that the large AZ haul found in Italy is actually intended for Belgium, not the UK. No-one seems to know what has happened to the consignment for Oz that Italy refused to export. 

Newsnight reported it as destined for the EU, Mexico and Canada.  No mention was made of the consignment for Australia.

[tender]

Interesting report on the BBC News website regarding UK supply of AZ vaccine.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56483766

 

 

[Andy Hayter]

3 hours ago, tender said:

Interesting report on the BBC News website regarding UK supply of AZ vaccine.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56483766

 

 

 

Once again the half truth of Germany and France with many unused doses of the AZ vaccine.  Courtesy of some injudicious statements from some politicians there is certainly some concern and or confusion and those of a political persuasion (journalists for example) are quick to highlight issues that are really of no consequence .

Nevertheless in France at least the uptake of the AZ vaccine remains high.

https://www.cartedudeconfinement.fr/suivi-vaccination-france

The graph shows the uptake of each vaccine source for first and second (where appropriate) jabs.

The light pink bars show a very heavy uptake of AZ for the first jab.  The second jab is shown by a mustard yellow band and if you can see it you are doing better than me.   So second jabs of AZ are awaiting the 12 week period to pass.  

Those unused jabs are simply those second jabs put into store awaiting the time to be administered.

[-missy-]

This is what worries me, and has done for a bit. For all those who have had the vaccine and think they can relax....

 

Quote

But if cases continue to rise, does this matter? After all, 99% of Covid deaths have been in the groups now vaccinated.

The link between infections and serious illness or death has been "severely weakened", says diseases expert Prof Mark Woolhouse, of Edinburgh University.

But if infection levels rise high enough the virus "will find those" who are unvaccinated and those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked, he says.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56529712

 

Missy.

[Hobby]

In what way if it worrying you? It is only "stating the obvious"! If you are under 50 and in good health even if you caught it you may at worst get a hard time (like my daughters boyfriend) but will be ok. None of us who have had the vaccine have said we can relax, we all know we can't, but the effects of the beast will, hopefully, be lessoned by the vaccine.

 

The fact is we can't carry on hiding and once we have managed to protect the most vulnerable, which we are doing, we have to start opening up again. Yes it will no doubt find those who haven't had the vaccine so some may have to still take extra care (assuming they couldn't have it for medical reasons, I have no sympathy with those who didn't because they were anti-vaxxers or believe such idiots), but so does the Flu.

 

I see nothing in that to worry about, all it's saying is that we still need to be careful if we are in at risk groups (mainly over 50) , there will always be those who don't, as there has been all through this mess, but with a little care we should be ok!

 

It's actually an interesting article, especially that map of the Midlands, TBH it's exactly what i expected, and probably reflected elsewhere across the country, all the rural counties to the west and south of Birmingham have 90%+ uptake of the vaccine but the issues of reduced uptake lie in Birmingham and the Black Country, I find it very sad that some sections of the population are so easily swayed or may be even forced not to have life saving medication.

[hayfield]

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Once again the half truth of Germany and France with many unused doses of the AZ vaccine.  Courtesy of some injudicious statements from some politicians there is certainly some concern and or confusion and those of a political persuasion (journalists for example) are quick to highlight issues that are really of no consequence .

Nevertheless in France at least the uptake of the AZ vaccine remains high.

https://www.cartedudeconfinement.fr/suivi-vaccination-france

The graph shows the uptake of each vaccine source for first and second (where appropriate) jabs.

The light pink bars show a very heavy uptake of AZ for the first jab.  The second jab is shown by a mustard yellow band and if you can see it you are doing better than me.   So second jabs of AZ are awaiting the 12 week period to pass.  

Those unused jabs are simply those second jabs put into store awaiting the time to be administered.

 

It certainly looks like the heat has gone out of the situation, with the doves within the community seeing it would be damaging to get into a vaccine war when countries are interdependent on each other through the whole supply chain, not just the final stages of production

 

I see Macron finally realises where the EU went wrong, praising the Americans (who will be making a fortune from this pandemic) but saying nothing about the UK's strategy of throwing everything at it and quickly, and at the generosity of both Oxford, Astra Zeneca and the UK government at allowing the vaccine to be sold at cost. Something that apparently some involved in its development are now beginning to think was a mistake.

 

Then all these claims of millions of AZ vaccines being squirrelled away for the UK, when infact they were for the internal EU market.

 

My daughter who is 40 (key worker) had her injection along with a few in her department on Tuesday, well it wiped out quite a few with 50% sickness. There is a thought that if you have had covid in the past the reaction to the vaccine is much worse ? 

[hayfield]

A bit about the vaccine filling plant in the UK well worth watching

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-56450968

[Reorte]

11 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I see Macron finally realises where the EU went wrong, praising the Americans (who will be making a fortune from this pandemic) but saying nothing about the UK's strategy of throwing everything at it and quickly, and at the generosity of both Oxford, Astra Zeneca and the UK government at allowing the vaccine to be sold at cost. Something that apparently some involved in its development are now beginning to think was a mistake.

Can hardly blame them for thinking it's a mistake, when they've just come in for abuse and heavyweight criticism (mostly to cover the mistakes of others) whilst their competitors are making a fortune. Congratulations AZ critics, you've demonstrated no good deed goes unpunished and that come the next pandemic no-one is going to want to help develop and produce a vaccine to be available to be produced around the world at the lowest practical cost. Bravo.

[NIK]

40 minutes ago, hayfield said:

A bit about the vaccine filling plant in the UK well worth watching

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-56450968

Hi,

 

I found the video very interesting. I'm amazed they got the finance to expand production if the packaging of the vaccine had to be done at cost. Perhaps they were able to defer making other products. According to the factories website they do normally make some products in vials anyway. Maybe there has been less new prescribing going on in the UK since the first lockdown.

 

Regards

 

Nick

[hayfield]

29 minutes ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

I found the video very interesting. I'm amazed they got the finance to expand production if the packaging of the vaccine had to be done at cost. Perhaps they were able to defer making other products. According to the factories website they do normally make some products in vials anyway. Maybe there has been less new prescribing going on in the UK since the first lockdown.

 

Regards

 

Nick

 

 

Nick

 

No idea but given the millions the UK has thrown at covid the way this company has reacted is no surprise. I know quite a few Asians in business, they are very hard working and when they see an opportunity they jump at it. When a government official contacts you in a situation like the pandemic doors are opened, I doubt if he had to fill in a detailed analysis for a bank loan and wait months for the health department to rubber stamp everything. No doubt a few films will be in the making

 

Perhaps one think that has changed for the good is that when there is a medical need it is possible to speed up the process, condensing what took years into months

 

Firstly the vaccine whilst taking 4 years to get to early 2020, it then took months to go into production

 

Health care with that steroid dexamethasone, took weeks to go firstly into trials then be authorised for general use

 

A new dawn for medical treatments ?  

[PenrithBeacon]

8 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

...

A new dawn for medical treatments ?  

Probably, but it's certainly a new dawn for me on Monday when I get my second jab! Feeling as though a big cloud has lifted.

[woodenhead]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

Can hardly blame them for thinking it's a mistake, when they've just come in for abuse and heavyweight criticism (mostly to cover the mistakes of others) whilst their competitors are making a fortune. Congratulations AZ critics, you've demonstrated no good deed goes unpunished and that come the next pandemic no-one is going to want to help develop and produce a vaccine to be available to be produced around the world at the lowest practical cost. Bravo.

There is a part of me that does think other pharma companies have potentially stuck the boot in behind closed doors as the deal for the AZ vaccine goes completely against their principals of profit - issues with other vaccines don't appear to get the same weight in the press or with the EU - it's all about AZ despite everything so far coming back to AZ is safe and the delays in Europe were because Europe came to the party late.

[Andy Hayter]

3 hours ago, -missy- said:

This is what worries me, and has done for a bit. For all those who have had the vaccine and think they can relax....

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56529712

 

Missy.

 

The real risk now that most of the vulnerable population have been vaccinated is that over half the population (I include children here) have not.  If this group then rejects vaccination on the basis of not being at risk, or not yet authorised to be vaccinated, or through some sort of macho I can fight it off; then we have a major breeding ground for the virus to spread and mutate.

 

Some of the mutations will inevitably be more or less resistant to the vaccines and so the vaccinated population once again becomes vulnerable - hence why people are already talking up an autumn booster with protection against the newest variants.

 

What we cannot discount is that the virus mutates so that the younger generations also become  vulnerable.

[hayfield]

3 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

Probably, but it's certainly a new dawn for me on Monday when I get my second jab! Feeling as though a big cloud has lifted.

 

 

David

 

That's good, mine is a few weeks away, but the first jab seems the most important, plus one of the papers is suggesting a top up with the winter flu jab this year 

[woodenhead]

57 minutes ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

I found the video very interesting. I'm amazed they got the finance to expand production if the packaging of the vaccine had to be done at cost. Perhaps they were able to defer making other products. According to the factories website they do normally make some products in vials anyway. Maybe there has been less new prescribing going on in the UK since the first lockdown.

 

Regards

 

Nick

The cost of any finance would be built into the cost of production, also it's a Government contract which means it is a safe investment for the lender, they would have had no problem getting the finance.

Edited March 26, 2021 by woodenhead

[hayfield]

2 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

There is a part of me that does think other pharma companies have potentially stuck the boot in behind closed doors as the deal for the AZ vaccine goes completely against their principals of profit - issues with other vaccines don't appear to get the same weight in the press or with the EU - it's all about AZ despite everything so far coming back to AZ is safe and the delays in Europe were because Europe came to the party late.

 

You may well be right plus the failure of the French version may also play a part in national pride

 

However Astra Zeneca may well have been over optimistic with the EU order, especially when using two partner companies where they have less control over, they are hardly going to turn on the Dutch & Belgium factories where the problem is. Plus by their own admission they were too slow in acting and proved not as good at negotiating as the UK. They must be wondering what else they have been bad at negotiating recently.

[woodenhead]

5 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

The real risk now that most of the vulnerable population have been vaccinated is that over half the population (I include children here) have not.  If this group then rejects vaccination on the basis of not being at risk, or not yet authorised to be vaccinated, or through some sort of macho I can fight it off; then we have a major breeding ground for the virus to spread and mutate.

 

Some of the mutations will inevitably be more or less resistant to the vaccines and so the vaccinated population once again becomes vulnerable - hence why people are already talking up an autumn booster with protection against the newest variants.

 

What we cannot discount is that the virus mutates so that the younger generations also become  vulnerable.

Dont forget the vaccine doesn't make you immune, even those of us who have been vaccinated can still catch Covid, we just won't be as ill.  The fact we can all still catch it means that it can still mutate even if everyone has had a vaccination - there will remain a risk it continues to mutate and one of those mutations will require a change to the vaccine.  The expectation I believe is that vaccination development will be ongoing and it will be a long time before we stop needing them if ever, though it may only be in the more vulnerable people long term.

[NIK]

7 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

Nick

 

No idea but given the millions the UK has thrown at covid the way this company has reacted is no surprise. I know quite a few Asians in business, they are very hard working and when they see an opportunity they jump at it. When a government official contacts you in a situation like the pandemic doors are opened, I doubt if he had to fill in a detailed analysis for a bank loan and wait months for the health department to rubber stamp everything. No doubt a few films will be in the making

 

Perhaps one think that has changed for the good is that when there is a medical need it is possible to speed up the process, condensing what took years into months

 

Firstly the vaccine whilst taking 4 years to get to early 2020, it then took months to go into production

 

Health care with that steroid dexamethasone, took weeks to go firstly into trials then be authorised for general use

 

A new dawn for medical treatments ?  

Hi,

 

If the UK government paid up front for any major costs to Wrockardt UK to package the AZ vaccine then private financing would not come into play.

 

I think it would be great to reduce bureaucracy but COVID-19 may be a special case as it threatens to overwhelm health systems, delays treatment to other patients and indirectly threaten civilised behaviour.

 

So some processes may have been speeded up for developing the first COVID Vaccines that will have more checks and balances when the risk to society is reduced.

 

An AI program has succeeded in predicting protein folding and this may speed up the introduction of new drugs and reduce their costs.

 

Regards

 

Nick

 

[Pete the Elaner]

1 minute ago, hayfield said:

 

You may well be right plus the failure of the French version may also play a part in national pride

 

However Astra Zeneca may well have been over optimistic with the EU order, especially when using two partner companies where they have less control over, they are hardly going to turn on the Dutch & Belgium factories where the problem is. Plus by their own admission they were too slow in acting and proved not as good at negotiating as the UK. They must be wondering what else they have been bad at negotiating recently.

 

AZ stated that their EU contract was for "best effort" only. I have not seen this part disputed anywhere, but it does negate any possible complaints about a shortfall.

[Pete the Elaner]

18 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

Probably, but it's certainly a new dawn for me on Monday when I get my second jab! Feeling as though a big cloud has lifted.

 

It is nice to hear about those getting their second jab. It is a light on the horizon for all of us.

 

I have not got my first because I don't qualify yet. I don't mind that at all because I don't deal closely with others as part of work, I have no health conditions & am able to keep myself fit.

I was more worried about myself than who I may pass it on to, but if those more at risk have been vaccinated then this is good news.

[PenrithBeacon]

Although AZ deserve full marks, 10/10, for their collaboration with Oxford University for the science that lies behind their vaccine I'm not impressed with their production engineering in actually making the stuff. Pretty poor.

But then I'm not at all impressed either by the attitudes of European governments to its efficacy, that's pretty poor too. It has lead to a remarkable lack of public confidence and, it seems, to quite large quantities of the vaccine in storage, unused.

I would also like to see the British ability to produce pharmaceuticals increased even if it means that some of that capability being mothballed during normal times. We really need to plan ahead for times like these and pay a premium if necessary to do so.

[Hobby]

I'm a bit puzzled by that, PB, the production of it in the uk has been pretty good, though our sites had a head start over others abroad. We had several links on the old thread showing just how difficult it was to set up manufactoring of a vaccine, it isn't simply a question of mixing a few chemicals together which many people think. If any part of the complex process goes wrong then delays happen. Some thing the EU seem to ignore. Also we've heard a lot about the AZ issues but virtually nothing about Pfizer who have also had problems, a quick search reveals them.

 

I think you underestimate just how difficult vaccine production is, especially a new one like this and it's unfair criticism. 

[Hobby]

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/why-manufacturing-covid-vaccines-at-scale-is-hard/4013429.article#/

[Reorte]

Just now, Hobby said:

I'm a bit puzzled by that, PB, the production of it in the uk has been pretty good, though our sites had a head start over others abroad. We had several links on the old thread showing just how difficult it was to set up manufactoring of a vaccine, it isn't simply a question of mixing a few chemicals together which many people think. If any part of the complex process goes wrong then delays happen. Some thing the EU seem to ignore. Also we've heard a lot about the AZ issues but virtually nothing about Pfizer who have also had problems, a quick search reveals them.

 

I think you underestimate just how difficult vaccine production is, especially a new one like this and it's unfair criticism. 

I think the production output is certainly a question it's reasonable to expect answers to. Clearly there are difficulties being experienced, and some level of those is to be expected. What isn't at all clear to me, and probably most commentators, is whether the levels of difficulties being experienced are excessive, few, or par for the course for this sort of production. I'll defend AZ because most of the attacks appear to be on the assumption that they're excessive, and that greater efforts could've reasonably been made to prevent them, and I don't believe that the critics mostly have any good reason for assuming that is the case.

 

I'm also left wondering whether there was a situation that went something along the lines of "We'll be able to produce this amount if everything goes perfectly, which it almost probably won't." Under the circumstances is it better to strike a deal for the amount you have confidence can be produced, or to order more knowing that you probably won't get it all by whatever date? I'd go for the latter, because that's the one that'll get more jabs in arms quicker, which is more important than getting a much lower but more predictable amount.

[Hobby]

Reorte, I think too many people, especially it seems those in politics in the EU, have a view that producing a vaccine is simply a question of mixing a few chemicals and Hey Presto! we have the vaccine. Those links on the other thread show that simply isn't the case, that link I've just put up shows the complexity of what is involved.