Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[rocor]

51 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

 

 Just what Greeta and the greens (and others) want.

 

I'm beginning to think there is a lot more to the Covid story than public health. Nuff said.

 

Brit15

 

I just threw the question out there, to see what the response would be.

 

 

Jag är inte en greta thunberg zombie.

[APOLLO]

12 minutes ago, rocor said:

 

I just threw the question out there, to see what the response would be.

 

 

Jag är inte en greta thunberg zombie.

 

I'm not really into (most) conspiracy theories but being double jabbed it's a matter of "steady as she goes" for me - I continue with hands / space / face as much as possible (as do many older folks hereabouts). I'm not cringing re future variants etc etc - I'll just use common sense. If it happens it happens. We can't lock down for ever. My thoughts are to get everyone (who wants to) double jabbed and open up (to those who will let us in !!). If a covid passport is required to leave / enter the country then so be it. I do not want Covid passports for restaurants pubs etc (hence the riots in France & Berlin etc). 

 

I do NOT trust ANY world leaders etc in matters Covid, energy, green, climate change etc etc. Far too many hidden agendas. (and boy are they well hidden).

 

Brit15

 

 

 

 

[Giles]

My brother in law is double jabbed (58) and he's just got it, quite hard at the moment, high temperature,  chest etc.,  so the vaccine is undoubtedly a very good idea, and helps, but it is not infallible.

 

Interestingly, the DIY home tests all came up negative, but the proper (PCR?) one certainly came up positive! 

[Reorte]

4 hours ago, Giles said:

My brother in law is double jabbed (58) and he's just got it, quite hard at the moment, high temperature,  chest etc.,  so the vaccine is undoubtedly a very good idea, and helps, but it is not infallible.

 

Interestingly, the DIY home tests all came up negative, but the proper (PCR?) one certainly came up positive! 

 

The vaccine only reduces the chance of getting it by ~50%. There's a good chance that your brother in law is very fortunate to have had the vaccine if that's how he is with it.

[Rivercider]

14 hours ago, rocor said:

What would be a price worth paying to prevent a possible future much more deadly than Covid worldwide pandemic? An end to international travel?

While international travel for trade, (and holidays at reduced levels), is here to stay it does make you think.

I remember reading about the improvement in air quality across the USA following 9/11.

 

From a purely local level I have even noticed the affects of air travel here in Somerset. In the summer when I walk to work at 05.30 for an early start, on a clear day I can see the overnight trans-atlantic flight arrivals very high above. If atmospheric conditions are right and each is leaving a contrail there have been days when a complete sheet of high level cloud is formed of parallel lines of contrails.

It is also noticeable that the yellow/grey mid level sheet of smog no longer forms on still air days now that Aberthaw power station is no longer generating.

 

cheers

[hayfield]

News regarding covid infections in the papers today are quite positive, even though infections are higher than we experienced earlier in the year. However if the recovery continues to decline at the currant rate, hopefully things will look much better in a week or two.

 

I am still a bit puzzled at the high death rate we are experiencing, or is it we are simply testing more people therefore finding more cases. Or the fact that people are dying from other causes but happen to have covid as well.

 

The next hurdle seems the winter influenza season which is being reported as a future concern, I guess its an idea to get the flu jab ASAP this year plus the covid top up when available. 

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

News regarding covid infections in the papers today are quite positive, even though infections are higher than we experienced earlier in the year. However if the recovery continues to decline at the currant rate, hopefully things will look much better in a week or two.

 

I am still a bit puzzled at the high death rate we are experiencing, or is it we are simply testing more people therefore finding more cases. Or the fact that people are dying from other causes but happen to have covid as well.

 

The next hurdle seems the winter influenza season which is being reported as a future concern, I guess its an idea to get the flu jab ASAP this year plus the covid top up when available. 

 

 

The vaccines greatly reduce the chances of catching the virus and, for those who do, they greatly reduce the chances of death arising from it. The fully vaccinated can still get it, and it can still kill them; it's just that the odds against that happening have improved. 

 

Increased infections will still, therefore, lead to increased deaths approximately 4 weeks later, although the latter will now be a smaller percentage of the former than it would have been without vaccinations.  

 

I doubt there is an easily-quantifiable argument for Covid being "unfairly" blamed where people with other problems die. For those already in poor health from other causes, the addition of the virus will be enough to  "finish off" many who otherwise survive their existing conditions longer.   

 

There are also a lot of deaths that have occurred (and continue to do so) because of Covid, but not from it. Those are people with cancer etc. whose treatment was delayed or disrupted by other sectors of the NHS being diverted from their normal work to dealing with the pandemic. 

 

John

Edited August 4, 2021 by Dunsignalling
removal of duplication

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

News regarding covid infections in the papers today are quite positive,

 

I noticed that, and on BBC too, but i'm slightly scratching my head as to why they've all suddenly decided that everything is now rosey - its like they all took a happy pill before writing their stories yesterday.

 

I'm not counselling gloom instead, clearly vaccination is helping hugely (although I still suspect that Summer is very good medicine all round too), but the trends on case numbers vary a lot across the country, and if you look at the national aggregation the "was it real or not?" sharp drop looks to be turning into something else, probably a levelling or a slow decline, rather than continuing.

 

My gut feel is that we need to wait a bit before putting up the bunting for a "We Beat Covid" party.

 

Air travel? The discussion seems a bit "all or nothing", and I wonder whether a better way to look at it might be around "a great deal less". A great deal less could come about through a combination of price hikes and inconvenience hikes, as the cost of tackling aviation's incredible propensity to convert natural resources into damaging pollution gets factored into ticket prices, and as bio-security and physical security are asserted much more firmly. In some ways it would amount to moving "access to air travel" back to the place it was in, say, the 1950s, when only the well-heeled could afford it, and even they used it sparingly. For 99.9999% of us, it probably ought to be a once in a lifetime, or once in a decade, thing, rather than us treating a trip to Pague or Alicante like a short bus ride into town.

 

The structural adjustment resulting from dramatically reduced air travel would be huge though. There are whole industries built around it, whole national economies in some places, and changing all that would involve time, and inevitably pain for a lot of people. A new set of holiday industries would develop, maybe Eden-Project-like domes in this country, or largely solar and wind powered "floating island" resorts, or airships, who knows, but that would take more than five minutes, and would leave aviation-industry wreckage behind, just as the dramatic decline of the British Seaside Holiday left wreckage that still hasnt been cleared-up yet (see news stories about Rhyl, still living through the aftermath).

 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Oldddudders]

Reassurance for parents

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58071898

 

[Reorte]

3 hours ago, hayfield said:

I am still a bit puzzled at the high death rate we are experiencing, or is it we are simply testing more people therefore finding more cases. Or the fact that people are dying from other causes but happen to have covid as well.

Cases turned the peak a while ago, hospital admissions yesterday (although the numbers for that are for five days ago), and deaths will then follow - they always lag each other in that order. I fully expect deaths to start declining in a week or two.

[D9020 Nimbus]

Looks like the flu jab will be coming early this year. Just been phoned by the doctors and given an appointment for September 7; my first flu jab, but my mother used to get it regularly, and I'm sure it was a lot later — November mostly. At the surgery, not the vaccination centre, and not combined with anything…

[Joseph_Pestell]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

I noticed that, and on BBC too, but i'm slightly scratching my head as to why they've all suddenly decided that everything is now rosey - its like they all took a happy pill before writing their stories yesterday.

 

I'm not counselling gloom instead, clearly vaccination is helping hugely (although I still suspect that Summer is very good medicine all round too), but the trends on case numbers vary a lot across the country, and if you look at the national aggregation the "was it real or not?" sharp drop looks to be turning into something else, probably a levelling or a slow decline, rather than continuing.

 

My gut feel is that we need to wait a bit before putting up the bunting for a "We Beat Covid" party.

 

Air travel? The discussion seems a bit "all or nothing", and I wonder whether a better way to look at it might be around "a great deal less". A great deal less could come about through a combination of price hikes and inconvenience hikes, as the cost of tackling aviation's incredible propensity to convert natural resources into damaging pollution gets factored into ticket prices, and as bio-security and physical security are asserted much more firmly. In some ways it would amount to moving "access to air travel" back to the place it was in, say, the 1950s, when only the well-heeled could afford it, and even they used it sparingly. For 99.9999% of us, it probably ought to be a once in a lifetime, or once in a decade, thing, rather than us treating a trip to Pague or Alicante like a short bus ride into town.

 

The structural adjustment resulting from dramatically reduced air travel would be huge though. There are whole industries built around it, whole national economies in some places, and changing all that would involve time, and inevitably pain for a lot of people. A new set of holiday industries would develop, maybe Eden-Project-like domes in this country, or largely solar and wind powered "floating island" resorts, or airships, who knows, but that would take more than five minutes, and would leave aviation-industry wreckage behind, just as the dramatic decline of the British Seaside Holiday left wreckage that still hasnt been cleared-up yet (see news stories about Rhyl, still living through the aftermath).

 

 

 

Sort of relevant to your comments above, somebody must still believe in the future of flying. Boeing and Airbus still have huge order books.

[Nearholmer]

I know; mostly US companies I think.

 

Do lemmings have wings?

[APOLLO]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

moving "access to air travel" back to the place it was in, say, the 1950s, when only the well-heeled could afford it, and even they used it sparingly. For 99.9999% of us, it probably ought to be a once in a lifetime, or once in a decade, thing, rather than us treating a trip to Pague or Alicante like a short bus ride into town.

 

Like I said, many hidden agendas. 99.9999% of "us" not flying, 100 % of "them" flying. 'Twas ever thus. As noted above the aircraft manufacturers order books are full.

 

Quote

The structural adjustment resulting from dramatically reduced air travel would be huge though. There are whole industries built around it, whole national economies in some places, and changing all that would involve time, and inevitably pain for a lot of people. 

 

True. 15% of Thailand's GDP is holiday income, most by air, and a lot long haul also, lots of other countries are similar. Air travel won't disappear in a hurry, will be more expensive and probably carbon quotas for us plebs will become the norm. I bet Heathrow's third runway is built.

 

Quote

A new set of holiday industries would develop, maybe Eden-Project-like domes in this country, or largely solar and wind powered "floating island" resorts, or airships, 

 

Sounds very grotesque, Holiday domes ? - Welcome to the  Logan's (run) pleasure dome (or will it be Frankies !!!!!). Airships ? - There is / was a worldwide Helium shortage.

 

No hols for us this year, and probably next. A few days out to non touristy places, country pub lunches etc, or just local a couple of miles from home  to places rarely visited and "rediscovered".

 

Just had a new (A rated) gas boiler fitted, more house improvements in progress / planned, some to save expensive energy - not for the greens but for my wallet & comfort - winter will be on us soon Brrrrrrr !!! 

 

For me this pandemic will be over when I can again travel worldwide without bio passports, masks, expensive multiple tests (and fear of very expensive quarantine if one shows positive). I can't see that happening soon, or perhaps ever so "Ourgate and Windowview" at least for me it will be !!

 

Brit15

 

 

 

[Oldddudders]

6 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Do lemmings have wings?

Probably not, given what they are famous for.....

[Nearholmer]

True.

 

So what form of winged creature is proverbially suicidal?

 

Moths! Yes, thats what we're like: moths.

 

As in "Drawn like a moth to beach-lounger.". Surely you've heard the phrase.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Oldddudders]

Holidays are where you find them. Sherry has been to Castle Drogo today with her younger daughter and family. Newly restored, it looks stunning in the sunshine.

 

I OTOH, for the first time this year, enjoyed a cup of coffee with an RMwebber and his lady, neither of whom had I met before. Refreshing.  

[Rivercider]

19 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Holidays are where you find them. Sherry has been to Castle Drogo today with her younger daughter and family. Newly restored, it looks stunning in the sunshine.

 

I OTOH, for the first time this year, enjoyed a cup of coffee with an RMwebber and his lady, neither of whom had I met before. Refreshing.  

By chance we had a weeks holiday booked coinciding with one of the relaxations of lock down, and visited Castle Drogo on the week the house reopened. It does look rather splendid from the outside, and pretty good inside too.

Castle Drogo 18/5/2021.

 

We have visited several times in recent years and seen the restoration work underway. The gardens and grounds are worth a visit, as is the walk along the Hunters Path down to Fingle Bridge (which would have been served by a halt had the GWR branch from Leigh Cross to Chagford ever been built).

 

 

cheers

[Hobby]

2 hours ago, APOLLO said:

'Twas ever thus. 

 

Before that it was the liners and before that? I'm thinking of those rich kids doing the Grand Tour back in the 18th and 19thC? 

 

TBH though I feel that cat is well and truly out of the bag, the plebs won't let go so easily...

[alastairq]

3 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Probably not, given what they are famous for.....

 Aaah! But, they think they have!

[Neil]

Foreign travel doesn't have to mean flying. I've just cancelled our autumnal trip to Spain by train. From here in mid Wales we're diesel powered until we hit the seething metropolis of Birmingham from where it's electric all the way to the sunny Catalonian coast. In fact pretty much every trip to the continent (Belgium, Italy, France, Germany and briefly Switzerland) has been electric. I think part of the journey to Portugal had a diesel on the front but this was at night somewhere in Spain so I can't be sure.

[APOLLO]

Cost of UK hotel quarantine going up dramatically.

 

From August 12, the rate for solo travellers will rise from £1,750 to £2,285, while additional adults sharing a room will see their bill hiked from £650 to £1,430. Children over the age of 12 are charged at the same rate as adults, while parents will have to cough up an additional £325 for those aged between five and 12. The Government says it to 'better reflect the increased costs involved'.

 

Disgusting.

 

Brit15

[monkeysarefun]

I'm a hopeless pundit but ignoring holidays,  I cant see business travel going back to the heights of 2019.

 

For instance  Sydney to Melbourne was the worlds 3rd busiest air route pre-pandemic, and 80% of that would have been business. 

 

It became a weird badge of honour here to be able to 'complain' about  how short a meeting was that you'd had to fly to Melbourne to attend.

 

When states shut their borders overnight I dont think any businesses went belly up due to having to use internet meetings and conference calls over face to face ones. Given that, I cant see many businesses returning to forking out hundreds of dollars in business class fares to replace a zoom meeting.

 

But then I could be wrong, people love boasting about their frequent flyer points...

[Reorte]

7 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Sounds very grotesque, Holiday domes ? - Welcome to the  Logan's (run) pleasure dome (or will it be Frankies !!!!!). Airships ? - There is / was a worldwide Helium shortage.

Hydrogen is viable. It's had a bad name ever since the Hindenburg (which was probably more down to the material than the gas, non-flammable alternatives exist these days).

[Andy Hayter]

Hydrogen production is bad for the environment though.  95% of the worlds production is through decarbonisation of methane:

 

CH4 + O2  -->  2 H2 + CO2

 

So you would be producing carbon dioxide in large quantities.