Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[adb968008]

50 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

On the other hand it may be much safer to let the virus do its thing for a month or so within the younger population to give schools a clear run next term.

Guarenteed ?

We've seen 3 variants in a year, which means as we approach the summer 1/4, are we due for another ?

Its also fallacy to see Covid as a seasonal virus, its not.. hot or cold temperature, it thrives, the Brasil, Middle East, Arizona saw huge infections, just as we did in Winter.

The common vector is people travelling to spread it, and people gathering in mass to share it… 

summer is the travelling event, autumn is the spreading event, with Christmas/Easter as combined peak events for travelling and spreading. Schools, Conferences, Indoor Sports, Arts events etc are set up to be Covid breeding grounds.
 

Given that globally full vaccination is still in its infancy, Covids got a few years of exploring new global markets in which to grow, and evolve into more new strains… especially as the UK’s vaccine message is no longer about prevention of catching or spreading, but one of reduced symptons… we are being conditioned for a very very long haul… which isnt what the rest of the developed world is thinking…

 

this message is at odds with countries like: France, Germany, Austria, Netherlands, US, Canada, China, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Spain, Switzerland, Norway, Israel, UAE, Singapore, Japan, Brazil, Chile, Philipines, Hong Kong, Denmark, India, New Zealand, Mexico..

 

who are all vaccinating children, as they want to reduce the spread of covid in society overall.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/countries-vaccinating-children-against-covid-19-2021-06-29/

 

and Unicef (The childrens protection arm of the UN), just secured 200 million does, presumably for children, given who they purport to represent..

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/unicef-signs-covid-19-vaccine-supply-agreement-janssen-pharmaceutica-nv

 

UK once again is standing differently to the developed world in that instead of reducing spread, we want to encourage it…That sounds like a life of enforced international isolation.. I can only assume money or poor politics is behind this, being white washed as a positive story until ministers reach the front foot again… that or our scientists know something that no other country knows, I know which one i’m more likely to think, as our scientists are at odds with government, and sharing that opinion to other countries..

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/05/uk/england-covid-gamble-gbr-intl/index.html

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/pm-boris-johnson-u-k-must-live-with-covid-19-but-restrictions-can-ease-1.5496563

 

chicken pox party policy ?
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/herd-immunity-is-back-on-the-table-for-uk-government-after-success-of-vaccine-rollout-1088031

Edited July 6, 2021 by adb968008

[Oldddudders]

15 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

 

Jeez - do you ever stop ? - one minute you moan about the "free for all" the next minute when BJ states things may change if circumstances dictate you moan about another U turn.

Glass half-empty!

[Gibbo675]

15 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Glass half-empty!

Is he filling or pouring ?

[hayfield]

27 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Glass half-empty!

 

Enough to send you straight down to the nearest vineyard 

 

I think realisation is that we have to live with it, the problem is very few countries are able to fully protect their populations without assistance. The past few months we are seeing death rates lower than influenza in most years, I guess its a case of managing rates to an acceptable rates (if there is any such thing). 

 

The task must be can we keep a lid on the anticipated influenza and covid winter outbreaks whilst keeping society going without too many controls  

[Reorte]

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Herd immunity is a myth.

 

If you think that x% of the population having antibodies means the rest cannot get it, then you are right - but only when x=100%.

 

80% just means the chances of transmission are reduced.  In no way does reduced = zero.

 

I have posted this before but with measles the vaccine is above 99% effective.  Portugal has the highest measles vaccination level in the world at over 99%.  Herd immunity must surely apply, mustn't it?

2018/9 they had an outbreak with 40 cases near Oporto.

No, it doesn't require 100%. When the level of immunity is sufficiently high that on average every infected person infects less than one other cases decline, and will then eventually die out. Lockdown was trying to achieve just that, but by keeping people isolated rather than immune; different method, same basic principle. And indeed the numbers went down, but it can't be kept up forever.

 

Unless the entire world is sufficiently immune you can still get localised outbreaks of a disease popping up (remember the less than one is an average, so small outbreaks are still possible). They just don't spread very far or get established.

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, Reorte said:

No, it doesn't require 100%. When the level of immunity is sufficiently high that on average every infected person infects less than one other cases decline, and will then eventually die out.

No proof of that, and as the numbers of repeat covid catching increases, suggests Herd Immunity is a myth in this virus.

 

The government calling quits and opening up society could be the message indirectly reflecting that they recognise they cannot current beat covid, only minimise its impact, so let it go and society has to live with it, as well as colds, flu etc… theres around 1600 deaths a day in the UK, less than a dozen are now down to Covid.

Edited July 6, 2021 by adb968008

[Reorte]

30 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

No proof of that, and as the numbers of repeat covid catching increases, suggests Herd Immunity is a myth in this virus.

 

If repeat cases are frequent enough, i.e. immunity doesn't last long then reaching the required level is hard or impossible. However that doesn't change what I said, and it doesn't mean that 100% is required. I've not seen or heard anything that suggests repeat infections are common enough to make a significant difference, although it's not been around for long enough to know the long term timescale for a good level of immunity.

 

Quote

The government calling quits and opening up society could be the message indirectly reflecting that they recognise they cannot current beat covid, only minimise its impact, so let it go and society has to live with it, as well as colds, flu etc… theres around 1600 deaths a day in the UK, less than a dozen are now down to Covid.

 

Quite possibly, but that's a separate consideration.

[adb968008]

I know a few people who have had covid twice around here.

most seem to say the same thing, the second time was worse than the first.

Haven't dived into strains caught etc, the assumption is the prevalent strain of the time.

one, a 30’s football coach, said he was borderline calling an ambulance as he couldn't breathe or sleep on the second time, first time was loss of taste, feeling knackered and a lot of sleeping. He’s only recently had his first vaccine dose (after 2 lots of covid), so presumably must be super charged with antibodies at this point, though he said he’s lost 10% of his training pace and his taste/smell hasn't fully recovered since his 2nd case of Covid at Christmas.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by adb968008

[Reorte]

On the subject of reinfections I've found this: https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/372/bmj.n99.full.pdf

 

Not read all of it, and it's dated January (so pre-Delta), but some key points from near the start:

Quote

Whether infection confers immunity to reinfection“is uncertain,”wrote Newcastle University academics in a paper published in the Journal of Infectionin December 2020.

 

Quote

Of 11 000 healthcare workers who had proved evidence of infection during the first wave of thepandemic in the UK between March and April 2020,none had symptomatic reinfection in the second waveof the virus between October and November 2020.

 

Quote

An early study by Public Health England, indicated that antibodies provide 83% protection againstcovid-19 reinfections over a five month period. Out of 6614 participants, 44 had“possible”or“probable”reinfections.

 

Quote

Worldwide, 31 confirmed cases of covid-19 reinfectionhave been recorded, although that could be anunderestimate from delays in reporting and resourcepressures in the ongoing pandemic

 

[Andy Hayter]

8 hours ago, Reorte said:

No, it doesn't require 100%. When the level of immunity is sufficiently high that on average every infected person infects less than one other cases decline, and will then eventually die out. Lockdown was trying to achieve just that, but by keeping people isolated rather than immune; different method, same basic principle. And indeed the numbers went down, but it can't be kept up forever.

 

Unless the entire world is sufficiently immune you can still get localised outbreaks of a disease popping up (remember the less than one is an average, so small outbreaks are still possible). They just don't spread very far or get established.

 

You clearly read the first sentence and ignored the Portuguese example where a vaccine with better efficacy and a population much more vaccinated failed to demonstrate herd immunity.  Unless you can come up with a peer-reviewed source for your assertion, I think it has to be treated as opinion - which should be excluded according to the title.  

[Hobby]

I suspect that the reply will be that they are different diseases, Andy, and not directly comparable. 

 

I could ask you where the peer review is which says that measles and covid can be directly compared? 

[Reorte]

52 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

You clearly read the first sentence and ignored the Portuguese example where a vaccine with better efficacy and a population much more vaccinated failed to demonstrate herd immunity.  Unless you can come up with a peer-reviewed source for your assertion, I think it has to be treated as opinion - which should be excluded according to the title.  

 

Didn't it? It sounds like it was a localised outbreak that failed to spread very far. Why isn't measles the plague it once was even though vaccination against it isn't 100%?

[Andy Hayter]

33 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

Didn't it? It sounds like it was a localised outbreak that failed to spread very far. Why isn't measles the plague it once was even though vaccination against it isn't 100%?

 

It sounds like you don't understand the word immunity.

 

Of course vaccines once tested and approved cut back disease.  What they don't do is provide herd immunity (as in so many people have antibodies that you cannot get it) until essentially the entire population has been vaccinated.  That happened with Smallpox with vaccinators going to really remote parts of the world.  

 

But until you do that yes you can get a localised outbreak and that outbreak proves the herd is not immune just heavily protected.

[Hobby]

 At the moment we do not know the percentage needed to provide herd immunity against covid 19. As this link shows the percentage needed to provide it varies with the disease, it can be as low as 80% or much higher, the point I was making but you ignored. In the case of covid herd immunity will be a combination of vaccines and people who have had it having antibodies. It is possible that covid could either die off due to not being passed on due to vaccine /imunity levels in the population or mutate into a less virulent version. At this stage we just don't know what will happen. 

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

[BMS]

I'm afraid that I am negative about what I think covid uk will do.

Last week I went for the first time in 18months away from my area of Wirral into Liverpool by train.

All went well until we got to Conway Park when a party of college/university students 8 or so boarded the train.

Of the party about half had masks on, leaving half without. They all sat together, and I saw one of them take her mask off and put it away. CCTV is on these trains so the guard could have taken action over the pa - nothing.  Similar situations throughout my shopping trip. Needless to say I, double vaccinated, 78 years old, was off as soon as possible, and won't be going back any time soon.

Boris allowing us to make our own minds up means the Macho element will not wear masks and there is nothing anyone can do. The health minister's contrast between commuter packed train and late night, 3 in a carriage,  (mask for the first and not on for the second, sounds reasonable, but I don't have the choice of a spaced out carriage!.

PS I have a photo of the carriage with the maskless girl in the picture.

[Reorte]

41 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

It sounds like you don't understand the word immunity.

 

Of course vaccines once tested and approved cut back disease.  What they don't do is provide herd immunity (as in so many people have antibodies that you cannot get it) until essentially the entire population has been vaccinated.  That happened with Smallpox with vaccinators going to really remote parts of the world.  

 

But until you do that yes you can get a localised outbreak and that outbreak proves the herd is not immune just heavily protected.

I don't? What it does NOT mean is that there's zero chance of anyone getting infected within a given population. It means that that population has sufficient immunity that any outbreak that gets in it cannot get established and spread very wide. It does not require sufficient immunity to eradicate the disease from the entire planet a la smallpox. What localised outbreaks you do get will arrive from outside. By your argument only complete extinction of the disease from the world counts, since any remaining reservoir anywhere could infect someone.

 

The herd is immune with localised outbreaks that are unable to spread; not every individual within it is.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Reorte

[Hobby]

56 minutes ago, BMS said:

CCTV is on these trains so the guard could have taken action over the pa - nothing.  

 

Errr, No he/she couldn't because we don't sit there monitoring the cctv, in fact we are not allowed to view it. There were some incidents early on on the Pendos where it could be viewed but they put a stop to that. It can be used as evidence for wrongdoings but is there on trains simply to record what goes on, it's not big brother. 

 

BTW its clear you haven't been out for a long time, the behavior you list has been commonplace for months on trains, worse on local trains rather than Inter City, though. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Hobby

[John M Upton]

I would say pretty much all Further Education (College) students are maskless now, big groups, lots of hugging going on, they don't care as they can claim whatever they like (asthma is an apparent favourite) and there is nothing that can be done about it.

 

Expect to see a lot less mask wearing from now on, it seems many take the announcements as effective immediately rather than in X weeks time which could cause problems if (or when as I reckon when judging by the mounting pressure from trade groups, Unions, etc) they U-Turn on the mask dropping.

 

Also if they do go ahead with some instances where masks are still required, because of the piecemeal approach, it will be utterly unenforceable.

[Hal Nail]

We're back to the finger pointing prevalent in the early days of this. Surely a sign normality is returning?

[Gibbo675]

8 hours ago, John M Upton said:

I would say pretty much all Further Education (College) students are maskless now, big groups, lots of hugging going on, they don't care as they can claim whatever they like (asthma is an apparent favourite) and there is nothing that can be done about it.

 

Expect to see a lot less mask wearing from now on, it seems many take the announcements as effective immediately rather than in X weeks time which could cause problems if (or when as I reckon when judging by the mounting pressure from trade groups, Unions, etc) they U-Turn on the mask dropping.

 

Also if they do go ahead with some instances where masks are still required, because of the piecemeal approach, it will be utterly unenforceable.

Hi John,

 

Could it be that the mask-less students are stating their sovereignty by reclaiming their birth rights taken from them  by government ?

 

Why stop at masks ? 

 

Gibbo.

[Nearholmer]

Ah yes, anarchy.

 

That would be fun.

 

Those who advocate living in an ungoverned  condition should probably spend a gap year in Somalia c1992, or somewhere similar, to get a feel for how refreshing it is to exist in perpetual terror of armed bullies, have next to no public services, etc.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Nearholmer

[spikey]

An interesting read ...

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/

[Pete the Elaner]

9 hours ago, John M Upton said:

I would say pretty much all Further Education (College) students are maskless now, big groups, lots of hugging going on, they don't care as they can claim whatever they like (asthma is an apparent favourite) and there is nothing that can be done about it.

 

 

You are displaying a prejudice against students. There is no way you can comment on "pretty much all" of them.

They are similar to everyone else in that if you explain why something is good, they are willing to understand. If you tell them "do this because I say so" they will not show any respect.

 

Are you jealous that they have most of their life ahead of them?

[hayfield]

Had any minister suggested that we would be seeing up to 100,000 new infections a day 6 months ago let alone in Feb/March last year there would be an outcry, now we are shrugging our shoulders. 27,000 infections a day seems serious, yet whilst hospital admissions have risen, they are not seen as a big concern

 

It very much looks like this summer the experts want the virus to burn itself out, thus protecting the younger generation in the future by infecting them when they are young and more able to fight it off, a bit like we were exposed to chickenpox and measles virus's. Or just catching influenza which for most meant a week off work.

 

Was this how we expected to beat Covid or just how medical knowledge/treatment has evolved ?

[Hobby]

See the discussion on herd imunity above, they've got the weak protected so what you see is the logical progression. 

 

All we have to do is wait and see if it works...