Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[hayfield]

 

This is quite an interesting article in Politico sheading some truth to what now seems false claims about Oxford AZ vaccines

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/astrazeneca-vaccine-shortfall-production-woes-documents/

 

Half of the Oxford AZ vaccine the EU has used was made in the USA, The Belgium site has been producing as expected, issues mainly with the Dutch site which seems not to have been sending large volumes of vaccine to the UK. All from documents obtained under the freedom of information acts.

[Reorte]

42 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I have noticed that new infections have been on the increase over the past few day...

Down 10% in the last week.

 

Two Mondays in a row now have been a jump up, which is a bit unusual (I'd had Monday as a low day, since it's probably really representing a Sunday), but yesterday was still a little lower than the previous Monday. There's always been an up-down pattern all through the decline, with midweek to Friday normally being high and weekends low; the usual pattern for a decline appears to be a weekend drop then an increase not to the previous week's levels.

 

The day-to-day variations (the part where some days are consistently higher or lower than others) mean that it's only really meaningful to measure the change over 7-week periods, so those underlying daily patterns are smoothed out.

 

So whilst I'm not persuaded that numbers are on the increase a stalling decrease again doesn't seem implausible.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Reorte

[APOLLO]

On 17/04/2021 at 06:21, Dunsignalling said:

The most important, but thoughtlessly used, word in all this is "normal".

 

Lots of people seem to be anticipating a return to "normal" as it was lived in the summer of 2018 in a matter of weeks, but if too many of them behave accordingly, we'll likely be back to square one by August Bank Holiday. 

 

Hopefully, the message is gradually getting through that, if we are to avoid flip-flopping in and out of lockdowns (be they national or more localised) for years to come, we ought not to attempt more than about 75% of "normality" any time soon, and 100% possibly never.  

 

Hints coming out of Australia suggest their government doesn't expect a full resumption of international travel until 2024. If proved correct, that will imply massive change/shrinkage in the industry that facilitates it, and the end of regular and cheap air travel for the masses for good. In such a scenario, I would expect long-haul to revert to being a once-in-a-decade special experience for most of us.

 

John

 

A good post.

 

International air travel is taking hits on many fronts, Covid, The Greens (Greeta), No alternative to Jet fuel (An electric Boeing 777 or Airbus  A380 ? - no way). Perhaps some greener liquid fuel alternative bio fuel will emerge, and tests are under way. Then there are the thousands of airplanes stored, many will never fly again - BA canned their 747 fleet which was undergoing expensive refurbishment - the recently refurbished ones went also. Many airlines will bleed to death financially and go bankrupt. Airbus, Boeing and Rolls Royce are suffering, but will survive, probably downsized. Pilots & crew also a problem, many highly skilled staff have been sacked in many airlines, and a good proportion will never return, those that do will have to undergo extensive retraining etc.

 

I agree re the end of regular & cheap travel. If, when some sort of travel returns, I think the traveller will have to jump through many hoops, covid tests, passports etc etc and the Covid situation going forward in many holiday (etc) destinations does not look rosy at all. 

 

This from todays news, Interesting & a little concerning.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/20/new-zealand-airport-worker-tests-positive-to-covid-on-second-day-of-travel-bubble

 

I have an uncomfortable gut feeling that I may never fly again. Jumping through hoops is not for me at my age.

 

Brit15

 

 

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

 

Whilst we have seen India struggle for a few weeks with increasing infections, we now seem concerned about their variant, were we too slow about making it a red zone, plus why wait till Saturday to start enforcing it ?

 

 

I don't agree with delaying it either.

The pandemic has been with us for over a year now. It seems sensible that any country could be added to a red list at any time their domestic situation merits it.

 

If I wanted to travel to another country, I should accept the possibility of it being added to a red list while I was there. It would therefore be a risk I was taking.

If I do not want to accept this risk, I should choose to not travel there in the first place.

This should be clarified further when international travel is opened up to leisure trips.

[Hobby]

I think that's the reason there's a delay before implementing, I agree that it would make sense to just say if you travel abroad it's at your own risk and you may have to isolate on return so be prepared... Perhaps that will change...

 

 

Had second jab an hour ago!

[hayfield]

2 hours ago, Hobby said:

I think that's the reason there's a delay before implementing, I agree that it would make sense to just say if you travel abroad it's at your own risk and you may have to isolate on return so be prepared... Perhaps that will change...

 

 

Had second jab an hour ago!

 

I thought this would be common sense, I understand people are desperate to see family, but in countries where the virus is rampant surely isolation upon returning to the UK is a must. Anyway is not foreign travel banned, except for exceptional reasons 

[3rd Rail Exile]

2 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

I thought this would be common sense, I understand people are desperate to see family, but in countries where the virus is rampant surely isolation upon returning to the UK is a must. Anyway is not foreign travel banned, except for exceptional reasons 

Unfortunately, to some people absolutely anything to do with family (no matter how trivial it may seem to others) is an exceptional reason, both internationally and domestically...

[NIK]

Hi,

 

I've just been told by a neighbour who has relatives in Canada that flights are still be allowed to Canada from India even though there are passengers arriving on most flights failing COVID tests on arrival.

 

Canada has belatedly been getting the COVID variants of the last few months getting into its population and now India has a variant with two mods to its spike protein.

 

Regards

 

Nick

[hayfield]

Interesting results about the effectiveness of the vaccination program from one of the SAGE committee members

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56826976

 

After the vaccination roll out started 43,000 patients have been admitted to hospital

 

2000 patients from this group had been identified as having had a covid injection 

 

Most patients had contracted the virus within the week before or the week after having the first dose of vaccine

 

Only 32 people could be found who caught the virus after 3 weeks

 

Whilst this group is only those hospitalised, there is clear evidence the vaccine is preventing hospitalization.

 

Far worse news is that Italy now has 117,000 reported covid 19 deaths, they are still suffering 3,000 deaths a week, France has just passed 100,000 covid deaths and Germany is up to 80,000, this new variant is so deadly, and whilst we suffered high numbers ourselves from December to March, the vaccination roll out has been a life saver, and extending the time period between the first and second vaccinations has been another life saving decision

[woodenhead]

37 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Only 32 people could be found who caught the virus after 3 weeks

But they didn't say which variant these people picked up - that could be key especially with new variants now being seen in the UK.

 

Great if that is 32 across all variants and not increasing in number, not so great if it is predominantly a single strain and growing.

[hayfield]

3 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

But they didn't say which variant these people picked up - that could be key especially with new variants now being seen in the UK.

 

Great if that is 32 across all variants and not increasing in number, not so great if it is predominantly a single strain and growing.

 

Until a day or so ago I think we had no idea of the numbers, also I think this period is probably the earlier part of this year. Perhaps if its possible these numbers should be made available earlier. Certainly the recent variants whilst being more infectious most experts seem to think no more deadly than the earlier variant. Certainly looking at the infection and other rates since the end of February all have declined massively.

 

I see the EMA have stated that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is OK to use with the same message as the Oxford AZ vaccine about blood clots, this is seen as a positive for European countries with their vaccination roll outs

[Hobby]

Considering their excuse for not using the AstraZenica vaccine, namely very rare blood clots, I would expect them to do the same with the J&J vaccine, if they don't it'll be clear that the rants against the AZ one was all political. 

[alastairq]

On 11/04/2021 at 13:56, alastairq said:

On that vein...Bridlington has seen a spike over the past week, with currently 39 cases....a rise of 34 in a week!  This is an infection rate of 478.8 per 100,000. One of the highest currently in the country.

 

  Harping back a week or so, to the above from myself.

 

Much froth on media, social or otherwise, concerning hordes of visitors, and 'what did we expect?', Etc Etc.

 

Turned out, the 'spike ' which totally distorted the realities regarding infection, super spreaders, etc, was down to the spread of infection through one particular Care Home , located in the middle of the area concerned.  Plus, outlying spikes where staff resided [and who became infected].

 

Which goes to show , a high infection rate in an area need not necessarily mean everyone has been out sniffing each others ear'oles [or whatever greeting once does these days?]  A spike in infection rates could, in fact, be extremely localised.

The point was also made that residents and staff had already received vaccinations, meaning, I presume, that a vaccination does not necessarily prevent one from becoming 'infected' [such that a test discovers it]...without becoming a 'victim of the virus. Plus, a vaccinated person can become infected, then pass that infection along to another, and so on?  It must take time for the vacination to provide a deterrence agaisnt actual infection?

[hayfield]

2 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Considering their excuse for not using the AstraZenica vaccine, namely very rare blood clots, I would expect them to do the same with the J&J vaccine, if they don't it'll be clear that the rants against the AZ one was all political. 

 

Reading the piece where the news company got a freedom of information request, to a certain extent I think Astra Zenica perhaps overestimated what they could deliver, this led to the politicians finding a scape goat for their own shortcomings. The FIO stated  that half the AZ vaccines used by the EU were made in the USA, the Belgium plant was producing vaccine at the expected rate, the Dutch manufacturing plant was much slower in starting up, therefore was not an authorised producer for the EU, but it has never supplied vaccine to the UK in large amounts. Given 2 out of the 3 plants which were to supply the European order were up to speed, AZ never had the production capacity to fulfil the EU's order. I assume the EU were aware of this.

 

As for the scepticism across some parts of Europe , it seems all vaccines have warnings of reactions and as the chance of getting a blood clots is many times less than dying in a car accident, blaming AZ for the EU's rollout problems has probably done more to put folk off it than the blood clotting. As you say the Johnson & Johnson has similar side effects. I would have thought seeing the progress the UK has made this would have stirred the the EU on to greater efforts.

 

But we are about 2 months ahead of the curve in Europe, hopefully now most of Europe will soon be seeing infections falling as their lockdowns and vaccine rollout take effect on infections, certainly what I have read about in France, they have both upped their vaccination rate plus extended the gap between both vaccinations, more importantly they are becoming less anti vax in their attitude according to the polls

[hayfield]

10 minutes ago, alastairq said:

  Harping back a week or so, to the above from myself.

 

Much froth on media, social or otherwise, concerning hordes of visitors, and 'what did we expect?', Etc Etc.

 

Turned out, the 'spike ' which totally distorted the realities regarding infection, super spreaders, etc, was down to the spread of infection through one particular Care Home , located in the middle of the area concerned.  Plus, outlying spikes where staff resided [and who became infected].

 

Which goes to show , a high infection rate in an area need not necessarily mean everyone has been out sniffing each others ear'oles [or whatever greeting once does these days?]  A spike in infection rates could, in fact, be extremely localised.

The point was also made that residents and staff had already received vaccinations, meaning, I presume, that a vaccination does not necessarily prevent one from becoming 'infected' [such that a test discovers it]...without becoming a 'victim of the virus. Plus, a vaccinated person can become infected, then pass that infection along to another, and so on?  It must take time for the vacination to provide a deterrence agaisnt actual infection?

 

 

That's the problem with low infection rates, a small increase has a large effect, last week our district was under 10 in 100,000 rolling 7day average, we are back up to 15 in 100,000. No doubt it will come back down over the next few days. Thankfully it has had no effect on hospitalizations, though we have had 4 deaths in a week, when we have been at 2 or less for 3 weeks plus 

[Pete the Elaner]

11 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

As for the scepticism across some parts of Europe , it seems all vaccines have warnings of reactions and as the chance of getting a blood clots is many times less than dying in a car accident, blaming AZ for the EU's rollout problems has probably done more to put folk off it than the blood clotting. As you say the Johnson & Johnson has similar side effects. I would have thought seeing the progress the UK has made this would have stirred the the EU on to greater efforts.

 

 

While true, the chance of dying from Covid is a lot higher than from getting a blood clot from a vaccine which protects against it.

This is the choice everyone has.

 

[alastairq]

Zombieism?

The next big fear?

Oooops, too late, it's been here for a good 20 years already.

How did that sneak in past the twitterers?

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, alastairq said:

Zombieism?

The next big fear?

Oooops, too late, it's been here for a good 20 years already.

How did that sneak in past the twitterers?

You could see Zombies every night of the week in the Fleet Street pubs back in the 70’s 

[Reorte]

Second jab for my parents today. They're not the types to rush straight out in to a crowd anyway but it's still good to know.

 

[John M Upton]

Finally managed to get my jabs booked.  Kept checking the site and they popped up.

 

Of course the letter from the NHS advising me to book my jabs turned up two days later.....

[hayfield]

Two bits of information that slightly contradict each other

 

Firstly whilst nationally infections keep dropping locally in the East and south Eastern parts of the country have slightly rebounded upwards in the past 7 days, very small numbers and possibly down to the latest relaxation of the rules

 

The good news is that I came across the NHS covid bed occupation rates, Southern and Eastern England with the exception of London have both low numbers of beds being occupied by covid 19 patients, with very low percentages being critical care beds, some Midland and Northern areas seem to be lagging behind with larger numbers hospitalised and a larger percentage of patients in critical care beds

[hayfield]

The Daily Telegraph is reporting that

 

"Britain is now Officially out of a Pandemic situation and moved into an Endemic situation".

 

Due to the vaccine rollout reducing the number of people being infected

[Pete the Elaner]

1 minute ago, hayfield said:

Two bits of information that slightly contradict each other

 

Firstly whilst nationally infections keep dropping locally in the East and south Eastern parts of the country have slightly rebounded upwards in the past 7 days, very small numbers and possibly down to the latest relaxation of the rules

 

The good news is that I came across the NHS covid bed occupation rates, Southern and Eastern England with the exception of London have both low numbers of beds being occupied by covid 19 patients, with very low percentages being critical care beds, some Midland and Northern areas seem to be lagging behind with larger numbers hospitalised and a larger percentage of patients in critical care beds

 

The first statement refers to infection rates & the second refers to hospital referrals.

Hospital referrals should lag behind infections so they should at least be out of sync.

but

If vaccines are working, they will not stop infections but they will prevent hospital referrals.

[hayfield]

A second bit of good news was reported yesterday from the BBC

 

The Billingham plant on Teesside has started making Novavax vaccine and is on target to make the 60,000,000 vaccines we ordered

 

Approval is expected in the next few weeks and the vaccine will be ready for the summer

[hayfield]

5 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

The first statement refers to infection rates & the second refers to hospital referrals.

Hospital referrals should lag behind infections so they should at least be out of sync.

but

If vaccines are working, they will not stop infections but they will prevent hospital referrals.

 

 

I understand this, though am I correct in thinking that those who are referred to hospital are more likely to survive owing to the likelihood of being from lower risk groups