Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Mike Bellamy]

23 minutes ago, Taz said:

Or, conversely, it could have the effect of encouraging vaccine uptake. There is a fear that the young (18-30) age group may have a lower uptake of vaccination as they are much less likely to suffer severe illness or death.

Take away their ability to go to the pub or out clubbing and suddenly they have a big incentive to get the jab.

 

Same would apply to summer holidays to Spain, Majorca, Ibiza etc as well as Hen and Stag do's to any number of European capitals.

[hayfield]

7 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

Still flawed, your reasoning is that if people are barred from meeting in the pub they'll meet at each others houses.  If ten unvaccinated people want to meet up then I'd rather they did it in one of their houses rather than in company with many other people at the pub.

 

The chances are they are and have been meeting there already, but its a carrot for them to see their foottie team play 

[Roger Sunderland]

Agree - conspiracy conspiracy, conspiracy everywhere.

Also agree. The retail sector has been o decreasing presence on the High St for years. Shopping patterns have changed, the pandemic has merely hastened what was already happening. I have faith in the fact we all adapt  to change in the end. New ideas, new jobs etc will come out of this.

[Rods_of_Revolution]

16 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

Still flawed, your reasoning is that if people are barred from meeting in the pub they'll meet at each others houses.  If ten unvaccinated people want to meet up then I'd rather they did it in one of their houses rather than in company with many other people at the pub.

 

Three pubs, each with 30 vaccinated people in and 3 unvaccinated. The chances of those 3 unvaccinated people crossing paths is lower, because there are lots of other people to socialise with, but on this occasion 2 of the unvaccinated cross paths and one gives coronavirus to the other.

 

However, let's now have three pubs with 30 vaccinated people in, the unvaccinated are not allowed because 'vaccine passports' required. We also have one house party where the 9 unvaccinated have met up. The chances of the unvaccinated crossing paths is now 100%. On this occasion, 1 person with coronavirus has now given it to 4 other people at the house party because they're unvaccinated.

 

The next day, in both scenarios everyone goes to the supermarket, as it's exempt from the vaccine passport. In the first scenario 2 people with coronavirus got to the supermarket, in the second 'vaccine passport' scenario 4 people go to the supermarket with coronavirus.

 

Yes, it's simplistic, but it's to illustrate that there are ways 'vaccine passports' could increase the spread. They could also reduce up take in the vaccine due to reactance effect.

 

So it's not a cut and dry case of 'vaccine passports' are beneficial.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Rods_of_Revolution

[hayfield]

4 minutes ago, alastairq said:

  All of which most quite a few  on here will have seen before?

[Collapse of the coal industry, the motor industry, the heavy engineeeering industry, cotton, wool, etc etc etc]

 

There is a business in the village which has had to be mothballed. Most of the staff are self employed contractors who have temporarily transferred their skills elsewhere. Once the sector opens the business will be straight back into action.

 

Granted some businesses have not survived, but perhaps many would have gone under anyway.

 

As for loosing old business sectors, this pandemic has shown the foolishness of relying on other countries, whole new manufacturing opportunities have opened up this year. Who would have thought McLaren F! would be designing and making ventilators !!  

[AY Mod]

3 hours ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

 

Because if unvaccinated people can't go to the pub, they are more likely to socialise together outside of the pub, instead of with their vaccinated mates inside the pub, so the virus will spread more easily between them. They then visit a supermarket, which under current plans is expempt from the 'passport'. They also go home to their families and into their places of work. That's just one vector off the top of my head.

 

All of which, to me, seem to be positive arguments for having the 'passport'. The people who can't* aren't the problem (and we need to help them); it's the ones who won't that are the problem*.

 

* - be vaccinated.

 

 

[hayfield]

23 hours ago, hayfield said:

The death rates whilst very sad for those directly affected are looking so much better,

At the beginning of Jan the 7 day average peaked at about 1200  a day

By the start of Feb they only dropped to just under 900 a day

By March it was just under 200 a day

Late March (29th) 36 a day

The last 7 days there has been 212 deaths a drop of 175 on the previous 7 days (though some of these may have occurred in an earlier period)

New infections likewise are down 35% on the previous 7 days 

 

Certainly both the lockdown measures and vaccination roll out seem to be working, the dark cloud on the horizon is the increasing infection rates on the Continent, lets hope their vaccination roll out will have the same effect

 

After the patchy weekend reporting certainly the death rates on a daily basis have increased.  BUT

 

Infections (7 day ave) are down 36% on the previous 7 days

 

And deaths down 35% over the same period

 

With Hospital admissions down by 25%

 

A big thanks to all involved 

[Rods_of_Revolution]

Just now, AY Mod said:

 

All of which, to me, seem to be positive arguments for having the 'passport'. The people who can't* aren't the problem (and we need to help them); it's the ones who won't that are the problem*.

 

* - be vaccinated.

 

A lot of the unvaccinated are people who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, but they can still contract and spread the virus. So they would be required to take tests all the time in order to socialise with the vaccinated. A spur of the moment trip to the cinema or theatre would be off the cards for someone with a compromised immune system. 

[Reorte]

26 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

All of which, to me, seem to be positive arguments for having the 'passport'. The people who can't* aren't the problem (and we need to help them); it's the ones who won't that are the problem*.

 

* - be vaccinated.

 

Thankfully the UK seems to be a country with very few of the won'ts.

[AY Mod]

12 minutes ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

A spur of the moment trip to the cinema or theatre would be off the cards for someone with a compromised immune system. 

 

As it is today so it may be then; but, they may be safer if we can reduce their contact with the 'wont's' . Can'ts don't, unfortunately, have as much as choice as the won'ts if they're aiming to make choices to protect themselves (as we have all had to do for over a year).

 

Chucking the passport idea in the bin isn't likely to help them in any way whatsoever.

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

 

A lot of the unvaccinated are people who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, but they can still contract and spread the virus. So they would be required to take tests all the time in order to socialise with the vaccinated. A spur of the moment trip to the cinema or theatre would be off the cards for someone with a compromised immune system. 

TBH, I don't think people with compromised immune systems will currently be doing very much "on the spur of the moment", if indeed they did before. 

 

Even though I'm in fairly rude health, I'll be waiting to see how the effects of each stage of relaxation pan out before entering any enclosed space in the company of numerous other people. 

 

Until social distancing can also be relaxed, many places we'd like to go will remain economically unviable unless we are willing to pay much more for our pleasures.

 

Covid passports probably won't be widely acceptable (domestically) in the long term but I think they may be necessary to bring enough of us back to supporting the hospitality and live entertainment sectors soon enough to ensure their recovery.

 

John

[Rods_of_Revolution]

Just now, Dunsignalling said:

Covid passports probably won't be widely acceptable (domestically) in the long term but I think they may be necessary to bring enough of us back to supporting the hospitality and live entertainment sectors soon enough to ensure their recovery.

 

I think 'eat out to help out' showed that very little encouragement is required to get people back to supporting hospitality.

[AY Mod]

48 minutes ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

I think 'eat out to help out' showed that very little encouragement is required to get people back to supporting hospitality.

 

There are arguments to say it did more harm, in infection levels, than it did good, in economic terms. I wonder how many people would wave a 'passport' as qualification to get a half-price meal? The won'ts would still probably maintain they were being discriminated against (in the same way as not having a pub chain loyalty card?).

[Dunsignalling]

5 minutes ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

 

I think 'eat out to help out' showed that very little encouragement is required to get people back to supporting hospitality.

I think there's rather less confidence and optimism about now than there was then. The last 12 months have knocked a lot of both out of many people.

 

Suddenly, a fixed income has become something to be desired, and what I haven't been spending has swelled my bank account by at least three grand in that time, so a bit of discount (or not) won't influence my actions.

 

John

[Oldddudders]

12 minutes ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

 

I think 'eat out to help out' showed that very little encouragement is required to get people back to supporting hospitality.

Mainly because its timing was laughably wrong. All it did was get the Govt to pay a % of meals that, in holiday high Summer, would have been bought anyway. Diners were being turned away right left and centre. Had it been timed for the Autumn, when business slackens and capacity is spare, the hospitality trade might have caught up a little on its losses earlier in the year. 

[hayfield]

23 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

TBH, I don't think people with compromised immune systems will currently be doing very much "on the spur of the moment", if indeed they did before. 

 

Even though I'm in fairly rude health, I'll be waiting to see how the effects of each stage of relaxation pan out before entering any enclosed space in the company of numerous other people. 

 

Until social distancing can also be relaxed, many places we'd like to go will remain economically unviable unless we are willing to pay much more for our pleasures.

 

Covid passports probably won't be widely acceptable (domestically) in the long term but I think they may be necessary to bring enough of us back to supporting the hospitality and live entertainment sectors soon enough to ensure their recovery.

 

John

 

John

 

Unless rules are put in place after June then the passports will not be needed internally, international requirements may differ

[Dunsignalling]

Just now, hayfield said:

 

John

 

Unless rules are put in place after June then the passports will not be needed internally, international requirements may differ

No, but as you have probably guessed, I would be greatly in favour of them being so!

 

John

[laurenceb]

52 minutes ago, Rods_of_Revolution said:

 

A lot of the unvaccinated are people who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, but they can still contract and spread the virus. So they would be required to take tests all the time in order to socialise with the vaccinated. A spur of the moment trip to the cinema or theatre would be off the cards for someone with a compromised immune system. 

I dought if someone with a compromised  immune system would be going to the cinemar or theatre anyway, and covid would be the least of there problems

[boxbrownie]

4 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I think it is now 'minimise travel' - subtle change but it means we can travel further.

 

So the BMW 5 series I saw with 3 kids in the back seat and a Saltire license emblem and bike rack was just a lost soul     

 

 We are used to all sorts of silliness during the Summer but it seems to have started early this year, a friend with a bakery on the Quay we spoke to a last week said he didn’t recognise any locals in his shop that afternoon.

 

It does kind of grate to those who have been very careful over the past year, and there is a huge proportion of the community here who are more vulnerable being elderly/retired.

 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by boxbrownie

[Bernard Lamb]

4 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Probably because there is a ticking mental health timebomb and the Government drip feeding ideas into media causing speculation is no help.

 

We've yet to feel the full effect of Covid, so far it has been restricted to the virus itself, the other economic impacts have been somewhat numbed by the Treasury but in a week when the shops that still exist re-open then furlough will begin to end and those who's livelihoods have been utterly destroyed will find themselves on the outside:

• John Lewis stores that won't be reopening
• Holiday shops that won't be reopening
• Airports with surplus staff
• Hotels with surplus staff

Some companies were already on the way out like Arcadia but there is going to be a lot more unemployment soon and a long road ahead to recovery.

I attended a Webinar last night. Nothing to do with covid. It was about historic buildings and planning. However the subject of covid cropped up. The speaker suggested that we should view covid as a war situation and set in progress a recovery plan. As you say, so many businesses will not reopen and so many buildings will never again be used for the purpose for which they were built. There are shopping malls in London that have never seen a single shop opened. There is an urgent need for a plan to find a use for these buildings that will generate employment and income. The suggestion from a senior town planner was that the best idea would be a short term plan to regenerate the economy and the grand city centre developments should be  put on hold until a clearer picture emerges as to what the future will look like. Even going as far as to build temporary structures to cater for the needs of the next ten years or so.

I go along with that as the infections and deaths seem to be disproportionate in certain districts and in certain communities. Transport also looks like a prime candidate for change. The idea spouted by Boris of levelling up requires serious action. If something can be done then the improvement in mental health will surely follow. But it needs action now. As you say, we are sitting on a bomb and the clock is ticking.

Bernard

[lapford34102]

2 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

So the BMW 5 series I saw with 3 kids in the back seat and a Saltire license emblem and bike rack was just a lost soul 

The new coastal community pastime - spot the registration number. Yes, I know it's hardly foolproof but it passes the time whilst out :-)

Stu

[LBRJ]

8 minutes ago, lapford34102 said:

The new coastal community pastime - spot the registration number. Yes, I know it's hardly foolproof but it passes the time whilst out :-)

Stu

 

All the time I lived in Cornwall, I only had one locally registered car.

Simply because the sort of junk  pre-loved classic I would drive are far far cheaper Up North.

Cheap enough in the order of "you could make a living out of it!" (indeed I believe some Dealers do indeed do just that)

[LBRJ]

Back on Topic!

It is now just over 5 hours since I had the needle inserted

Still feeling vaguely human so far..........

[lapford34102]

4 minutes ago, LBRJ said:

All the time I lived in Cornwall, I only had one locally registered car

Quite so which is why I said "hardly foolproof" but a 70 plate LR Evoque with West London garage plates (other marques are available) on the clifftop is a great excuse to have a whinge :-)

Well done on getting your 1st (?) jab done.

Stu

[LBRJ]

1 minute ago, lapford34102 said:

Quite so which is why I said "hardly foolproof" but a 70 plate LR Evoque with West London garage plates (other marques are available) on the clifftop is a great excuse to have a whinge :-)

Well done on getting your 1st (?) jab done.

Stu

 

Yep the first one, I'm only just Fifty so I'm in the sweepings up of the older ones  to be done  Next one is in June.