Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Andy Hayter]

25 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Was the NHS close to being overloaded? Possibly, but the fact that most of the nightingale hospitals didn't get used showed that what was done was sufficient, though a close call... 

 

The fact that most of the Nightingale hospitals did not get used was because there were not the staff to man them.

[Hobby]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-nightingale-hospitals-coronavirus-cases-b1779763.html

 

Reallocation of resources is the inevitable consequence of a pandemic, that's no help to those directly affected but its what happens. Yet another thing that will have to be looked at when the dust settles. 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Hobby

[durham light infantry]

3 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Is that fact or just a guess, any link? I'm not knocking what happened but if they'd have been needed then I'm sure they'd have found staff. 

 

Reallocation of resources is the inevitable consequence of a pandemic, that's no help to those directly affected but its what happens. Yet another thing that will have to be looked at when the dust settles. 

 

Working in care it was a real fact. All our visiting Nurse practitioners, district nurses and visiting health professionals dissappeared from mid March until the end of June. They were working on the wards in the local hospitals. Whole general wards were repurposed to covid care and were full to capacity, I know I was in 1 for 12 days. 

 

Let's not talk this down. The threat was real, it nearly overwhelmed us, and it was only by a lot of hard work by everybody in public and private health that we got through.

[Hobby]

I changed my post, DLI, to reflect the research I did.

 

I am not talking things down, but when we talk about these things we have to be sensible about it. I see far too many people at the extremes, Andy has removed one at one end but left other posts which I regard as being at the opposite end and just as bad. 

 

I only hope that when the official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic takes place it doesn't descend into political point scoring but is constructive so we can learn and plan for the future. 

 

I don't hold out much hope, though, looking at social media and the press. 

[Oldddudders]

6 minutes ago, durham light infantry said:

Let's not talk this down. The threat was real, it nearly overwhelmed us, and it was only by a lot of hard work by everybody in public and private health that we got through.

Some of us are under no misapprehension that NHS people worked all the hours they could, some unpaid, during many shifts of which some witnessed endless distressing scenes as previously-healthy people slipped away for lack of resources or medical understanding of what the virus was doing to them. Those NHS staff were sorely under-protected in the early days, maybe since, and not a few themselves paid the ultimate price. While we are pleased to hear that new applications to join the service are gratifyingly numerous, there will be some who can no longer stomach what they have seen, so losses due to PTSD-type issues will be significant, too. 

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Tell that to those working in NHS ITU.

Tell that to those that have had cancer treatment suspended or delayed

Tell that to the millions who are now going to have to wait many months if not years for routine operations like hip or knee replacements.

 

I think you must inhabit a different world from the one I know.

 

I do agree that things are now improving but it would take very little to return to where we were.

 

Andy

 

The pandemic had to take priority as it was killing thousands, as far as the pandemic is concerned as the vaccine is seen as the route out of the pandemic it is working and from the data over the past 2 or 3 weeks the tide has turned and the effects that the virus is having on the population is reducing at a great pace

 

Emergency care has been carried out for the most at risk, but as you say we need to catch up on the less urgent life threating disease's. Sadly the waiting times for routine treatment will be awful for a long time to come. Its the same everywhere, the first step to treating all is to free up the hospitals, which the NHS are doing very well

[lapford34102]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

Not sure I understand why the debate (in here) about how many adults have been vaccinated, the ONLY official statement I heard so far is 50% of the adult population have had the first vaccination dose.

 

Et al as others have said the same and it's certainlymy experience from the media I follow that they state first or second jab quite clearly.

Reading back through Mike's post not really sure what he was driving at.

 

Stu

[vaughan45]

46 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

the vaccine is seen as the route out of the pandemic it is working and from the data over the past 2 or 3 weeks the tide has turned and the effects that the virus is having on the population is reducing at a great pace

 

Unfortunately whilst this is correct whilst we are still in lockdown, the situation may well start to change once things open up. Additionally there is a considerable risk that a new variant could arise that can circumvent the protection given by the current vaccines. This variant could be home grown or more be probably brought into the country from elsewhere. 

 

Whilst it may be possible to revise the formula of the vaccinations to keep pace, there will inevitably be a development lag and also the timescale taken to re-vaccinate the most vulnerable. This may not be a problem if the variant emerges during the summer, but more of an issue if like the so called 'Kent' variant last year, it emerges in the autumn, leading into the winter. 

[friscopete]

Not sure we are nearing the end .We may be just at the start .Not sure  the old normal will be back ever.

[Hobby]

Glass half empty brigade are out and about! 

 

I could equally say that scientists will keep pace with new varients and we will find a way back to somewhere close to the way we were. There's no evidence at the moment which points one way or the other for definite. But to continually look at the glass half empty side as some of you are does no one's mental health any good. 

 

And is pure speculation which isn't what Andy wanted when he set up the new thread judging by its title... 

 

Come on folks, get some positivity going!!

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, friscopete said:

Not sure we are nearing the end .We may be just at the start .Not sure  the old normal will be back ever.

 

Covid-19 is not the first worldwide pandemic & is unlikely to be the last. It spread more quickly partly because long distance travel is easier & more frequent than it was when previous ones were spreading.

The world recovered before so there is no reason to believe it will not do so this time. The difference is that we now have a better understanding so are more able to fight this one.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, vaughan45 said:

Unfortunately whilst this is correct whilst we are still in lockdown, the situation may well start to change once things open up. Additionally there is a considerable risk that a new variant could arise that can circumvent the protection given by the current vaccines. This variant could be home grown or more be probably brought into the country from elsewhere. 

 

Whilst it may be possible to revise the formula of the vaccinations to keep pace, there will inevitably be a development lag and also the timescale taken to re-vaccinate the most vulnerable. This may not be a problem if the variant emerges during the summer, but more of an issue if like the so called 'Kent' variant last year, it emerges in the autumn, leading into the winter. 

 

Its been reported many times we will have to get used to living with the virus, probably as we live with influenza, I like many have a winter flu jab. Perhaps for the foreseeable future all adults may need an annual top-up 

[lapford34102]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

Come on folks, get some positivity going!!

A little difficult when you see the news from Bristol but.....

According to Sky News a moment ago.

In latest 24 hr period the USA managed to deliver 1.2 millions jabs, in roughly the same 24hrs the  UK managed nearly 0.9 million.

 

There will be significant ups and downs with the vaccine daily scores but I would hate to be here and saying And it was all going so well!

 

Stu

[great central]

5 hours ago, Hobby said:

Glass half empty brigade are out and about! 

 

I could equally say that scientists will keep pace with new varients and we will find a way back to somewhere close to the way we were. There's no evidence at the moment which points one way or the other for definite. But to continually look at the glass half empty side as some of you are does no one's mental health any good. 

 

And is pure speculation which isn't what Andy wanted when he set up the new thread judging by its title... 

 

Come on folks, get some positivity going!!

 

Ok, a bit of positivity, Nottingham club now have dates for an exhibition:

18th-19th September

[Neil]

Interesting piece from the BBC here, Covid: The countries that nailed it, and what we can learn from them. While it's obvious that the UK isn't South Korea or Germany it would be foolishly arrogant to think that we can't learn something from them.

[alastairq]

I guess, when thinking about a 'new normal', it isn't going to be from the viewpoint of our society in general.

But there will be an awful lot more folk re-assessing how they live their lives, and what is, or is not, important  in them?

Societal pressures have, in many ways, been removed.

 

No longer is an anti-social attitude  something abnormal.

Isolationism may become more acceptable than it once was, perhaps?

[EddieB]

14 hours ago, Hobby said:

Glass half empty brigade are out and about! 

...

Come on folks, get some positivity going!!

Yes of course, but the road out is still far from smooth.

 

My younger daughter's year group were sent home from school this morning, after a fellow student had a positive result from "home" lateral-flow testing.  We thought that we were back on the highway after the Kent strain had ripped through the whole school (and her year in particular) at the end of last year, so something of a jolt to find we're not yet out of the woods as we'd hoped. 

 

Nevertheless, these are minor setbacks (which we must expect) and the overall trend is that the glass remains half full and filling up - and to become available at a nearby hostelry in the near future!

[Neil]

17 hours ago, Hobby said:

..... Come on folks, get some positivity going!!

 

Well I think that the current caution shown by the government at Westminster is a positive thing and that here in Wales it looks like the Senedd are taking an even more cautious stance, so that's even more positive. I'd rather be too cautious than not cautious enough.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Neil
spelling

[hayfield]

Its highly likely that as we get control of the spread of the virus localised outbreaks will occur. Testing has now changed from confirming someone has covid to searching for it.

 

As the infection rates reduce it will get harder to find it, especially as many of the group which is where the majority of cases are being found are quite likely to be asymptomatic. But the outlook is quite bright, at the moment we are seemingly not self sufficient on vaccine production, however there are many more plants coming on stream this and next year, along with supportive businesses

 

We are coming out of the third wave and just need to keep a lid on the South African and American strains till a greater proportion of the population are vaccinated. Thankfully its not a case of if but when  

[woodenhead]

48 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Its highly likely that as we get control of the spread of the virus localised outbreaks will occur. Testing has now changed from confirming someone has covid to searching for it.

 

As the infection rates reduce it will get harder to find it, especially as many of the group which is where the majority of cases are being found are quite likely to be asymptomatic. But the outlook is quite bright, at the moment we are seemingly not self sufficient on vaccine production, however there are many more plants coming on stream this and next year, along with supportive businesses

 

We are coming out of the third wave and just need to keep a lid on the South African and American strains till a greater proportion of the population are vaccinated. Thankfully its not a case of if but when  

Only AZ produce Covid Vaccines in the UK, all of Pfizer's comes from Europe and additional stocks of AZ have been ordered from India - as we've seen when the host area isn't getting what it needs then it attempts to restrict export regardless of where it is going.

 

They are building more and more capacity but whether that means being self sufficient I don't know, eventually Europe will get it's act together and vaccinations worldwide will get into gear and there will be a consistent process of vaccinations that will mean no country will be without access.

 

This is an interesting piece https://post.parliament.uk/manufacturing-covid-19-vaccines/ 

[Barry Ten]

11 hours ago, great central said:

 

Ok, a bit of positivity, Nottingham club now have dates for an exhibition:

18th-19th September

 

I'm involved with another layout where we have a tentative re-confirmation of an exhibition booking for December, subject to a cautious reassessment later in the summer.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

Only AZ produce Covid Vaccines in the UK, all of Pfizer's comes from Europe and additional stocks of AZ have been ordered from India - as we've seen when the host area isn't getting what it needs then it attempts to restrict export regardless of where it is going.

 

They are building more and more capacity but whether that means being self sufficient I don't know, eventually Europe will get it's act together and vaccinations worldwide will get into gear and there will be a consistent process of vaccinations that will mean no country will be without access.

 

This is an interesting piece https://post.parliament.uk/manufacturing-covid-19-vaccines/ 

 

I posted a similar link a day or two ago, clearly stated the Moderma vaccine is due to roll out in the summer made in this country, and Valneva due to be available end of this year, then there are various other projects coming on stream including the facility in Oxford

 

https://post.parliament.uk/manufacturing-covid-19-vaccines/

 

Given the long list of manufacturing and support facilities I expect we will be not only self sufficient but an exporter, as you say hopefully playing out part in the worldwide vaccine effort

[john new]

5 hours ago, alastairq said:

I guess, when thinking about a 'new normal', it isn't going to be from the viewpoint of our society in general.

But there will be an awful lot more folk re-assessing how they live their lives, and what is, or is not, important  in them?

Societal pressures have, in many ways, been removed.

 

No longer is an anti-social attitude  something abnormal.

Isolationism may become more acceptable than it once was, perhaps?

One societal issue in opening up (for personal relationships) is going to be within couples where one is significantly more risk averse than the other. 

[hayfield]

5 hours ago, john new said:

One societal issue in opening up (for personal relationships) is going to be within couples where one is significantly more risk averse than the other. 

 

I think this is reasonable common prior to the lockdowns, though it may well have made it worse

[woodenhead]

So what we all need to do now it get the common cold and keep getting it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445