Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

['CHARD]

50 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Scotland just announced tighter restrictions from Monday. No alcohol consumption outdoors 

 

Precisely what level of this was going on in any case, it's hardly sandals and short-sleeves weather out there just now?  

 

Or is it a pre-emptive strike ahead of Burns Night?   Whichever way, I can see this particular restriction being one that will not be revoked once the plague recedes. 

[BoD]

53 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Scotland just announced tighter restrictions from Monday. No alcohol consumption outdoors, takeaways to be from a doorway or hatch (no persons on the premises) and Click and Collect services for shops selling essential items only, everything else must shut down completely. 

 

I suspect England will follow suit in the next day or two.

 

I noticed this morning that a supermarket has, within the last week, repainted the 2m markings on the pavement outside.

[Nearholmer]

The outdoor drinking ban seems in stark contrast to the way the guidance was phrased when we were in Tier 2 (never thought I'd look back on that nostalgically), which went something like "there is no limit to how much time you may spend sitting on a bench in a park eating or drinking"; that read vaguely like an invitation to take up a career of alcoholic vagrancy to me.

 

Anyway, today's release of case figures suggest that the downward trend where I live is indeed sustaining - fingers crossed that the descent gathers pace, because we are still at figures that seemed inconceivable in the autumn.

[rocor]

1 hour ago, John M Upton said:

Scotland just announced tighter restrictions from Monday. No alcohol consumption outdoors, takeaways to be from a doorway or hatch (no persons on the premises) and Click and Collect services for shops selling essential items only, everything else must shut down completely. 

 

I suspect England will follow suit in the next day or two.

 

Meanwhile, Boris says the Lockdown is working so I expect him to announce just the opposite inside of 48 hours as per usual...

 

The rules of the game state that we can only follow suit when the instruction is prefaced with "Sturgeon says".

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, rocor said:

 

The rules of the game state that we can only follow suit when the instruction is prefaced with "Sturgeon says".

Except when Boris has his fingers crossed behind his back.

[jonny777]

On 12/01/2021 at 15:16, boxbrownie said:

Too true, look at some of the (apparent) weirdos who win Mastermind 

 

Many of those are semi-professional tv game/quiz show contestants. They just seem to appear on everything, and often more than once. 

[jonny777]

On 12/01/2021 at 16:32, Welchester said:

 

Not only true of games.

 

Yes, the Quantitative Easing card is considered quite a gravy train in most property board games. 

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, jonny777 said:

 

Many of those are semi-professional tv game/quiz show contestants. They just seem to appear on everything, and often more than once. 

Doesn’t make them look any less weird 

[Hroth]

5 hours ago, rocor said:

 

The rules of the game state that we can only follow suit when the instruction is prefaced with "Sturgeon says".

Sounds a bit fishy to me... 

[monkeysarefun]

On 13/01/2021 at 00:54, laurenceb said:

Has covid killed their last brain cell? If they had one to start with. People die of exposier in the summer walking in thr Peak

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/local-news/lost-covidiot-snow-tourists-risked-4874813

We have the opposite weather risks here. Not covidiots as such , just trying to get from Cairns to Adelaide without going through locked down NSW and I guess  they  just blindly followed the route the  GPS told them...

 

Couple rescued in outback after changing travel route due to Covid restrictions

 

The Flying Doctor is urging Australians to take extra precautions when driving in outback areas after the rescue of a couple from Adelaide who drove through remote South Australia because their planned route was changed due to Covid-19 restrictions.

 

The engaged couple had planned to drive from Cairns home to Adelaide through New South Wales, but opted to drive through remote South Australia after a hard border was reintroduced to stop coronavirus spread from NSW.

 

Jose, 29, and Nicky, 32, were travelling with their puppy when their Toyota RAV4 became stuck in sand on 3 January.

 

They abandoned their car and, without phone reception, walked more than 40km while scrawling “SOS” in the dirt.

At one point, Jose resorted to drinking his own urine.

 

The pair spent two days without food or water until Craig, a remote worker from Santos, found them at a satellite station after seeing their SOS notes in the roadside. Their dog Loki also survived.

 

Craig says he only takes the road once every six weeks, and the pair were 25km from the nearest town, Innamincka.

 

Jose says:

It was so hot, and we were scared, I thought we were going to die.

 

My phone said SOS only, and I kept trying over and over again to call for help, but the call wouldn’t go through.

 

We had a little food left but we couldn’t eat it because we had no saliva and couldn’t swallow.

 

They said they “hardly spoke” to each other because their mouths were so dry.

Edited January 14, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Nearholmer]

There was some discussion about bin-emptying back up-thread.

 

Our bin collections are now badly awry, part suspended, part days behind schedule, because Covid has struck the bin-men very badly. Two bin lorry drivers died from it last week, and 40% of crew members have tested positive for it. Very big questions are being asked about the precautions that were being applied, to which I think I know the answer, having watched them at work.

[AY Mod]

There's comment and indication today that cases are slowing a little. Generally, they're still rising in this area but (although I can't see evidence of this nationally or in other sample areas I've looked at) there looks like a chink of light at the very top right of the heatmap for this area with a reduction in the rates in the 80+ age brackets - signs the vaccine programme is having an effect?

 

[Bernard Lamb]

See below from the cafe in Ashridge. There are so many people out in the countryside that they are taking drastic action. They had previously reduced their opening hours to try and reduce the volume pf people. The adverse environmental impact will need to be dealt with later. Many footpaths are now 3m wide mud baths with all vegetation destroyed. One section of Roman road that I had not used since last summer contained a stretch of single track that was a good technical trial on an MTB. Alas the whole width of the original road now lacks any definition.

Bernard

"With a heavy heart, we have decided we should be part of the solution to the current Covid 19 situation, rather than the problem. Brownlow Café will temporarily close from Saturday 16 January 2021. We will reopen as soon as possibly safe to do so. Thank you for your custom and support to date and please keep safe." 

 

[Nearholmer]

I’m amazed they haven’t made the Ashridge Estate a no-go zone before now. It’s at the southern edge of our afternoon-out range, and we made the serious mistake of going there for a change of scenery back in September or October. It was massively over-populated, really hard to maintain distance, so it went to the top of our ‘never again’ list.

 

Its an area that seems to have crept-up in popularity - I did an intensive month-long course at the college there about thirty years ago, and at that time the whole area was very quiet, even at weekends.

 

All our ‘cycling cafes’ for miles around are shut, even for service through a window, not that bike rides are on the agenda since we went into Tier 4. I find that, like Boris, one runs out of ‘local’ too soon on a bike, so don’t bother with it.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Nearholmer

[hayfield]

1 minute ago, AY Mod said:

There's comment and indication today that cases are slowing a little. Generally, they're still rising in this area but (although I can't see evidence of this nationally or in other sample areas I've looked at) there looks like a chink of light at the very top right of the heatmap for this area with a reduction in the rates in the 80+ age brackets - signs the vaccine programme is having an effect?

 

Andy

 

For quite some time I have been looking at 3 areas (my own in Essex, sisters in Milton Keynes and in laws in Kent). The parish I live 5 weeks ago the weekly transmissions changed from a single figure weekly average to over 130 for our two villages (180 per 10,000), The latest infection started earlier in Kent, but for the past couple of weeks seemed to have peaked and now declining. Like wise I have seen the infection spread northwards seeing Milton Keynes gradually increasing in numbers greatly

 

In our parish it seemed to spike 2 weeks ago then reduce only to spike even higher last week (Christmas effect?) We seem to at least be levelling off again and the surrounding areas seem to be settling down

 

Also since the weekend traffic seems to have reduced more, I think the word has sunk in. Thankfully our medical centre has been busy since the start of the roll out of injections and my sister in MK in her mid 70's is having her 1st injection on Sunday, but my wife's parents (both 90) in Kent have not heard a thing yet

 

But as you say looks like the lockdown is starting to have an effect

[boxbrownie]

11 hours ago, Hroth said:

Sounds a bit fishy to me... 

don’t you dare mention fish down ‘ere 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by boxbrownie

[Bernard Lamb]

https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/18998962.munden-estate-owner...

09/01/2021 · Shortly after New Year, Henry Holland-Hibbert, who owns the sprawling Munden Estate on the outskirts of Watford, decided to hang 71 bags of dog poo at one of the main pedestrian entrances onto the estate.

 

Another side effect of lock down.

Another area I used to cycle in but now steer well clear of.

Bernard

[Reorte]

43 minutes ago, hayfield said:

For quite some time I have been looking at 3 areas (my own in Essex, sisters in Milton Keynes and in laws in Kent). The parish I live 5 weeks ago the weekly transmissions changed from a single figure weekly average to over 130 for our two villages (180 per 10,000), The latest infection started earlier in Kent, but for the past couple of weeks seemed to have peaked and now declining. Like wise I have seen the infection spread northwards seeing Milton Keynes gradually increasing in numbers greatly

Looking at the numbers on the maps it seems to be the biggest early risers of the current peak are also the first ones to be coming down (not sure whether or not this is surprising or not, since additional restrictions started everywhere at the same time), so local to me we're still increasing although still below the national average. It's hard to say whether the increase is accelerating, constant, or slowing though on a local scale, the numbers are too noisy.

[boxbrownie]

51 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

All our ‘cycling cafes’ for miles around are shut, even for service through a window, not that bike rides are on the agenda since we went into Tier 4. I find that, like Boris, one runs out of ‘local’ too soon on a bike, so don’t bother with it.

 

 

I am sure it was stated at the first lockdown when all the computer modelled images of virus spread were published that walking gave a 1-2 m spread but running and cycling gave a 20-30 m spread, I guess just due to the speed of the individuals but I cannot say I ever saw a runner or biker on TV wearing a mask, presumably thinking being running or biking alone was safe.

 

Always made me wonder, just a thought.

Edited January 14, 2021 by boxbrownie

[Nearholmer]

To get a fix on what is happening, go for a run, then a walk, then a bike ride, on a cold, crisp morning, and look at your breath-plume (without tripping over or falling-off!).

 

Your breath plume will form a slowly dispersing cloud if you are walking, and some sort of dispersing con-trail if you are running, and very definitely a trail if you are cycling.

 

If the big risk is transmission by fairly large droplets, which can only travel short distances before falling to the ground, being passed by a runner or cyclist at <2m is probably less risk than being passed by a person walking, simply because you are "in range" for less time.

 

If the big risk is aerosols suspended in the dispersing breath-plume, the issue is a bit different, because its a choice between a "fat cloud" with a walker, and a longer, thin trail, with a cyclist.

 

One thing for sure is very dodgy, and that is cycling "on the back wheel" of another cyclist, where you are almost guaranteed to get their "con trail", and almost certainly spit and snot drops, which is why all registered clubs have suspended group-riding and competitive riding.

 

There is also some effect of exertion, in that a person will get through more air, so expel more breath, if they are working hard, which takes us on to ........

 

The primary reason people don't, and aren't required, to wear a face-covering while doing hard exercise is because it is suffocating - you just can't get enough air in through even a basic mask to service the needs of your muscles - even in normal times, in bone-chilling weather, its pretty rare to cycle hard with even a thin covering over nose and mouth, because it is so restrictive.

 

There are some countries that have a "mask-up whenever outdoors" rules (which the UK doesn't, at least yet), and even they include hard-exercise exemptions - certainly the Aussie ones do. 

 

My reading is that it has been concluded that the benefits of hard exercise outweigh the risks that it creates to either the person exercising or those they pass.

 

But, I'm a precautionary old devil, so have actually suspended my bike rides for a combination of reasons while the virus-rate is so very high locally: I don't want to catch the bug by inhaling the breath-plume of someone I pass; and, I don't want to unwittingly pass it on if I have unwittingly caught it.

 

As a PS: it is possible to model all this breath-dispersal stuff, using horribly complicated finite-element analyses, as it done for, for instance, smoke dispersal in fire-safety modelling.

 

 

 

 

['CHARD]

1 hour ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Shortly after New Year, Henry Holland-Hibbert, who owns the sprawling Munden Estate on the outskirts of Watford, decided to hang 71 bags of dog poo at one of the main pedestrian entrances onto the estate.

 

 

I had no idea the estate was suffering a vampire infestation. 

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

Looking at the numbers on the maps it seems to be the biggest early risers of the current peak are also the first ones to be coming down (not sure whether or not this is surprising or not, since additional restrictions started everywhere at the same time), so local to me we're still increasing although still below the national average. It's hard to say whether the increase is accelerating, constant, or slowing though on a local scale, the numbers are too noisy.

 

That's what I have noticed, but also some of the areas north of us seemed to not peak as high and are also showing the effects of the lockdown by either stabilising of reducing infections. Lets hope for all sake its coming down everywhere 

[boxbrownie]

52 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

To get a fix on what is happening, go for a run, then a walk, then a bike ride, on a cold, crisp morning, and look at your breath-plume (without tripping over or falling-off!).

 

Your breath plume will form a slowly dispersing cloud if you are walking, and some sort of dispersing con-trail if you are running, and very definitely a trail if you are cycling.

 

If the big risk is transmission by fairly large droplets, which can only travel short distances before falling to the ground, being passed by a runner or cyclist at <2m is probably less risk than being passed by a person walking, simply because you are "in range" for less time.

 

If the big risk is aerosols suspended in the dispersing breath-plume, the issue is a bit different, because its a choice between a "fat cloud" with a walker, and a longer, thin trail, with a cyclist.

 

One thing for sure is very dodgy, and that is cycling "on the back wheel" of another cyclist, where you are almost guaranteed to get their "con trail", and almost certainly spit and snot drops, which is why all registered clubs have suspended group-riding and competitive riding.

 

There is also some effect of exertion, in that a person will get through more air, so expel more breath, if they are working hard, which takes us on to ........

 

The primary reason people don't, and aren't required, to wear a face-covering while doing hard exercise is because it is suffocating - you just can't get enough air in through even a basic mask to service the needs of your muscles - even in normal times, in bone-chilling weather, its pretty rare to cycle hard with even a thin covering over nose and mouth, because it is so restrictive.

 

There are some countries that have a "mask-up whenever outdoors" rules (which the UK doesn't, at least yet), and even they include hard-exercise exemptions - certainly the Aussie ones do. 

 

My reading is that it has been concluded that the benefits of hard exercise outweigh the risks that it creates to either the person exercising or those they pass.

 

But, I'm a precautionary old devil, so have actually suspended my bike rides for a combination of reasons while the virus-rate is so very high locally: I don't want to catch the bug by inhaling the breath-plume of someone I pass; and, I don't want to unwittingly pass it on if I have unwittingly caught it.

 

As a PS: it is possible to model all this breath-dispersal stuff, using horribly complicated finite-element analyses, as it done for, for instance, smoke dispersal in fire-safety modelling.

 

 

 

 

Well that expanded my post a bit 

 

But yes......exactly.

[Nearholmer]

Sorry!

 

Its just that I've heard/read people asserting (very aggressively in one or two cases) that passing cyclists are somehow super-dangerous from a covid viewpoint, based on some poor explanations in newspapers, which when you think it through is a load of old c'bblers.

 

And, pondering anything vaguely physics-based relieves the tedium of lockdown, and the frustration of trying to help my youngest with her home-schooling when she is in a non-receptive mood - as she very much has been this morning!

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

And, pondering anything vaguely physics-based relieves the tedium of lockdown, and the frustration of trying to help my youngest with her home-schooling when she is in a non-receptive mood - as she very much has been this morning!

One positive that may come out of all of this is a lot more respect for teachers from parents.