Lockdown #2

[alastairq]

11 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I wonder what history will make of this plague ?

The downside of cheap and easy travel?

[john new]

16 minutes ago, alastairq said:

The downside of cheap and easy travel?

Although the black death spread across nations as well.

[AY Mod]

 

Hi de Hi!

[hayfield]

4 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Hi de Hi!

 

Must admit a great idea and puts Aus dollars into their hospitality industry 

[Nearholmer]

37 minutes ago, john new said:

Although the black death spread across nations as well.

Cheap and easy travel for rats.

[chris p bacon]

29 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Must admit a great idea and puts Aus dollars into their hospitality industry 

It depends on who is paying for it.

 

There is a chap from my town that emigrated to Perth 30 years ago, he really needs to return here to look after his mothers affairs as she has dementia. Although there are carers going in 4 times a day,  some things need sorting which only a family member can do (he is the only one) .   He may be able to get permission to fly but the cost of the flight plus the quaranteen when he returns is more than he has. He has had clients 'go bust' on him this year meaning he has had no income for 18 months so is faced with the dilemma that he returns to the UK to see his mum for possibly the last time even though she has no idea who he is and lose his home. Or does he stay in Perth and keep a roof over his head.

It's a policy that works at keeping the virus out, but at what cost to some.

[monkeysarefun]

11 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

It depends on who is paying for it.

 

There is a chap from my town that emigrated to Perth 30 years ago, he really needs to return here to look after his mothers affairs as she has dementia. Although there are carers going in 4 times a day,  some things need sorting which only a family member can do (he is the only one) .   He may be able to get permission to fly but the cost of the flight plus the quaranteen when he returns is more than he has. He has had clients 'go bust' on him this year meaning he has had no income for 18 months so is faced with the dilemma that he returns to the UK to see his mum for possibly the last time even though she has no idea who he is and lose his home. Or does he stay in Perth and keep a roof over his head.

It's a policy that works at keeping the virus out, but at what cost to some.

 

It is a tough policy. There is a cap on incoming arrivals due to the need to quarantine everyone, as a result some people have been waiting months for a flight back,  many have run out of funds in overseas locations while waiting for a slot. Additionally there are complaints that airlines will bump off an economy class traveller to make way for someone who can afford first class, though they deny this.

Overall though its been the stated aim of the Australian government  from day one that the health of the community as a whole take precedence over the economy, and credit to them, they've stuck to this solidly, unlike many other countries   and have followed faithfully the advice of science and health experts .

 

More so surprising given our government is a conservative leaning one, who  downplay the science when it comes to global warming where their stated position is that the economy (ie digging up and selling all our coal) takes precedence over the environment....

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

I wonder what history will make of this plague ?

 

Its a bit too early to tell, isn't it.

 

If we're fortunate/sensible, it might turn out that the three big "takeaways" (to use annoying jargon from business conferences) are:

 

- that mucking around with the natural world too much exposes us all to immense risks; and,

 

- that when push comes to shove, rationality and science can come-up with ameliorations for our troubles remarkably quickly, and that people across the world can cooperate to deploy them with alacrity; and,

 

- that contingency planning, and building a bit of 'slack' into all sorts of systems that might come under pressure in a crisis, are good ideas, rather than wastes of money, time, and effort.

 

One "first" is that this is possibly the first pandemic when humanity has had the combination of ability and willingness to make a meaningful attempt to do anything very positive to protect itself (although that may be to under-play the very successful campaigns against AIDS, Ebola and earlier SARS).

 

Even as recently as the 1968 'flu pandemic (c30 000 deaths in the UK), no real attempt was made to do anything very much about it*, more out of laissez faire than anything else, and the 1918 'flu pandemic (c228 000 deaths in the UK) there seems to have been no real ability to attempt amelioration.

 

*Personal anecdote: I copped 'flu that year, and still have a very clear memory of one weird hallucinogenic waking-dream that I had while experiencing a boiling fever. I believed that I was an empty milk bottle, going along one of those metal conveyor lines towards the filling machine, rattling along with oodles of other milk bottles in front of and behind me.

 

 

[TheSignalEngineer]

Contingency planning is always one of the first casualties when the accountants get to run things rather than practical people. The UK Pandemic Plan was scrapped by the government in fairly recent times which led to the shortage of PPE earlier in the year as the stock had not been properly managed, allowed to go out of date instead of a proper rotation and not been replaced to a level to cover maximum demand. 

Without getting into politics the Tier levels seem to be based not on the case rates but what sort of a F-up has been made in the management of hospital provision around the country. Many parts of our area have a case rate around 100 per 100000, some as low as 45 and decreasing daily yet we are in Tier 3. We don't have any proper hospitals of our own any longer and have to rely on failing NHS Trusts in high density population areas thus get lumped in with them.

[Nearholmer]

Trouble is, we sort of get what we vote for, don't we?

 

We tend to shy away from voting to be taxed more, so don't have a particularly high health expenditure per capita (17th in the world) especially considering that we have a fairly old-biased demographic (50th oldest out of 230 countries).

 

But, that isn't the whole of the issue, in that we aren't among the very top players in terms of GDP/capita (somewhere c27th out of c190 that seem to be counted), so although our % of GDP spent on health (c10%) is not wildly different from that of our neighbours, its a % of a smaller pie.

 

Then we have some Special British Problems: we have the whole insane muddle between health-care and social-care; and, a really bad record in respect of lifestyle-driven ill-health particularly, but by no means exclusively, among lower-income people. Taken as a whole, we eat too much, a lot of it cheap rubbish, drink too much, and don't exercise enough. 

 

If we wanted to live in a healthy country, with good health provision, we wouldn't start here!

 

 

[john new]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Its a bit too early to tell, isn't it.

 

If we're fortunate/sensible, it might turn out that the three big "takeaways" (to use annoying jargon from business conferences) are:

 

- that mucking around with the natural world too much exposes us all to immense risks; and,

 

- that when push comes to shove, rationality and science can come-up with ameliorations for our troubles remarkably quickly, and that people across the world can cooperate to deploy them with alacrity; and,

 

- that contingency planning, and building a bit of 'slack' into all sorts of systems that might come under pressure in a crisis, are good ideas, rather than wastes of money, time, and effort.

 

One "first" is that this is possibly the first pandemic when humanity has had the combination of ability and willingness to make a meaningful attempt to do anything very positive to protect itself (although that may be to under-play the very successful campaigns against AIDS, Ebola and earlier SARS).

 

Even as recently as the 1968 'flu pandemic (c30 000 deaths in the UK), no real attempt was made to do anything very much about it*, more out of laissez faire than anything else, and the 1918 'flu pandemic (c228 000 deaths in the UK) there seems to have been no real ability to attempt amelioration.

 

*Personal anecdote: I copped 'flu that year, and still have a very clear memory of one weird hallucinogenic waking-dream that I had while experiencing a boiling fever. I believed that I was an empty milk bottle, going along one of those metal conveyor lines towards the filling machine, rattling along with oodles of other milk bottles in front of and behind me.

 

 

 

Sadly an accountancy mantra from the 1980s of the Three Es (Economy, Efficiency & Effectiveness) has a big hole in it when services subject to volatile demand and peaks and troughs are concerned. The first two make sense BUT to achieve the third is usually taken to mean provision well below the expected peak loading as for most of the time that equates to slack in the system that contradicts the other two! In the public sector (and IIRC it came from the Audit Commission) it was a Thatcherite era answer to a perceived problem bigger than it was.

 

I am making no other comments on it other than that, a statement of fact re-the 3Es,  as it will take us into the banned area of political discussion.

[hayfield]

10 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

 

It is a tough policy. There is a cap on incoming arrivals due to the need to quarantine everyone, as a result some people have been waiting months for a flight back,  many have run out of funds in overseas locations while waiting for a slot. Additionally there are complaints that airlines will bump off an economy class traveller to make way for someone who can afford first class, though they deny this.

Overall though its been the stated aim of the Australian government  from day one that the health of the community as a whole take precedence over the economy, and credit to them, they've stuck to this solidly, unlike many other countries   and have followed faithfully the advice of science and health experts .

 

More so surprising given our government is a conservative leaning one, who  downplay the science when it comes to global warming where their stated position is that the economy (ie digging up and selling all our coal) takes precedence over the environment....

 

I think its terribly sad when businesses struggle through both financial downturns and bad debts of others, reminds me of my cousin who was a central heating engineer and with his business partner installed central heating systems for house builders, one afternoon they got a tip off from the site manager that the company was going into liquidation the next day, they were able that night to retrieve items which were not paid for, limiting their losses.

 

As for being away from parents, its bad enough for my wife being 80 miles away let alone the other side of the world. One reason of moving 5 years ago was to be near our daughter. My sister (a childless widow) is now thinking about following us as her health begins to decorate, it would also mean she is nearer her niece.  

[hayfield]

12 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

 

I wonder what history will make of this plague ? Those who are affected the most are those who either live in crowded areas and or the poorest in society,

living in urban areas usually in large numbers and multi generational. Thinking they are either invulnerable or their relatives will never infect them. The simple fact is many deaths could have been avoided if everyone acted on the advice given.   

 

If I look at the areas locally most affected, its areas with lots of social housing. this seems to be replicated if you look at other highly affected areas. 

 

I feel for those who will enter the highest area on Wednesday who have abided by the rules, but sadly too many in their community/local communities have ignored the advice and are now paying the consequences   

 

Strange how the next day my conclusions are confirmed by the BBC, though I assume the ethnicity part is more down to the type of jobs and extended households more than anything else

 

The study also found certain groups had a higher chance of testing positive over this period:

People of Asian ethnicity

People living in the most deprived neighbourhoods

People living in the largest households

 

Then we see the next generation of highly educated members of our society being totally reckless

 

A party of 200 people at a halls of residence was broken up by police.

 

Shortly after 21:00 GMT officers handed out five £200 fines after responding to reports of a party in a field in Gonalston.

At about 22:30 officers were called to a flat in Pilcher Gate, in the city centre, where they gave £200 fines to 21 people.

Just after midnight officers broke up a "large party" in St Ann's and issued the organiser with a summons to appear in court.

 

Tomorrow they all will be complaining about the lockdown rules being unfair and against their human rights !!!

[chris p bacon]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

My sister (a childless widow) is now thinking about following us as her health begins to decorate

 

If that really was the case, she would be a handy person to have nearby John...

 

Regarding family I must be very different, as apart from my Brother I couldn't be far enough away from other family members..

[hayfield]

10 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

 

If that really was the case, she would be a handy person to have nearby John...

 

Regarding family I must be very different, as apart from my Brother I couldn't be far enough away from other family members..

 

Carols parents live in Kent and have just combined with my brother and sister in law to buy one larger house, as my farther in law is loosing his short term memory and both around 80 it is very comforting that they are together, it was not without problems as things were going on without our knowledge and we were supposed to be kept informed, but that's families.  the fun and games will happen when Carols inherence become due. 

 

The problem we have with my sister she lives in a cheaper area and in shared ownership. A bridge we have to cross next year. She has a group of very good and caring friends, but as grandparents have other calls on their time, plus my sister has to all intense and purposes been shielding since lockdown. I think she misses her family including my grand children and one of her niece's children dotes on her.  Sorry to hear about your family, my daughters mother in law was very strange totally the opposite to her farther in law and her brother in law lets say has a different lifestyle.

 

Then her two daughter's are totally different, both lovely girls 

[Reorte]

16 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

 

I wonder what history will make of this plague ? Those who are affected the most are those who either live in crowded areas and or the poorest in society,

 

The same's true of most plagues throughout history. We don't have the unsanitary conditions now (in the UK anyway) that helped some diseases spread so easily throughout cities but there's still the lots of people in proximity factor.

[Joseph_Pestell]

My cousin in Kent, with whom I am supposed to be visiting for Christmas, phoned on Saturday evening. Not only has she got Covid, for the second time, but so have nearly all the family, despite not having seen each other. A huge and sudden spike in cases in their part of Kent which previously had very low rates of infection.

 

The only good news is that although her antibodies did not prevent her from getting it again, the effects have been much more short-lived this time.

[melmerby]

22 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

My cousin in Kent, with whom I am supposed to be visiting for Christmas, phoned on Saturday evening. Not only has she got Covid, for the second time, but so have nearly all the family, despite not having seen each other. A huge and sudden spike in cases in their part of Kent which previously had very low rates of infection.

 

The only good news is that although her antibodies did not prevent her from getting it again, the effects have been much more short-lived this time.

I assume this has been confirmed by testing?

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 minutes ago, melmerby said:

I assume this has been confirmed by testing?

She was not able to get a test first time round. They have all been tested this time. Especially worrying for one of her grandsons who is a type 1 diabetic.

[The Stationmaster]

21 hours ago, melmerby said:

Tim Martin (Mr Wetherspoon) was on radio this morning bemoaning the lock down measures.

He was complaing a pub chain is there to sell beer not to be "quasi-restaurants"

Mm.

There was me thinking that Wetherspoons were "quasi-restaurants" that just happen to sell decent beer.

 

AFAIK most pub chains these days concentrate on food, where there is more profit to be made

When I had just about attained legal drinking age our town (c.10,000 + souls) had one brewery and a total of 35 pubs (including 2 which were separate parts of hotels) plus 3 hotels with interior bars that could be used by non-residents. That total was down from three breweries and over 50 pubs, plus hotels, in the years immediately preceding the Great War (according to a local gazetteer).

 

Prior to the pandemic out of those 35 only 2 former pubs remained which did not serve meals.  Only one hotel remained which had a bar serving non-residents and it is now owned by Wetherspoon, the other surviving hotel did not serve non residents because it no longer had a separate bar.  The other surviving pubs numbered 7  (and one pub had closed in the previous 18 months).  All of those surviving 7 pubs serve 'substantial meals' and for most of them their restaurant trade was considerably greater than their drinking trade.  

 

All the other pubs and hotels with bars open to non residents had closed over the preceding 30 odd years.   If I go right back to my childhood I can remember at least 3 pubs which closed before I even reached my teens .   In the simplest of terms pub closures and pub re-purposing to a wider range of 'hospitality' have been going on for almost as long as I can remember, it is nothing new.  And a considerable percentage of nearby country pubs in which I used to drink have closed completely while all those that survive are now as much restaurants as pubs - the advent of the breathalyser did for a large number of country pubs a long while ago.   And even some which concentrated heavily on food had closed in the couple of years prior to Lockdown 1.

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

 

The same's true of most plagues throughout history. We don't have the unsanitary conditions now (in the UK anyway) that helped some diseases spread 

Wanna place a bet on that?  Not even considering occasional extremes that are shown in tv programmes I bet you'll find plenty of places including households with conditions which have become insanitary because of lack of cleaning and disinfection and in some cases were probably initially inadequate for the job they had to do.   And have you noticed how many people don't wash their hands after using a toilet?  it's not just about the infrastructure but an awful lot of it has to do with the way people use (or rather misuse) that infrastructure.

[Reorte]

6 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

Wanna place a bet on that?  Not even considering occasional extremes that are shown in tv programmes I bet you'll find plenty of places including households with conditions which have become insanitary because of lack of cleaning and disinfection and in some cases were probably initially inadequate for the job they had to do.   And have you noticed how many people don't wash their hands after using a toilet?  it's not just about the infrastructure but an awful lot of it has to do with the way people use (or rather misuse) that infrastructure.

 

A small number of isolated individuals excepted, compared to how things used to be? There are plenty of people who aren't a model of hygienic behaviour (there are also some who go overboard on it, which isn't any good for us either) but it's a world away from the sort of conditions that gave rise to regular cholera epidemics.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Reorte

[Nearholmer]

51 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

In the simplest of terms pub closures and pub re-purposing to a wider range of 'hospitality' have been going on for almost as long as I can remember, it is nothing new.

 

Very true. This country has moved pretty markedly away from being a predominantly pub culture, towards being predominantly a cafe culture. It would be very interesting to see figures for the % of the population  who, in ordinary times, visit a pub one or more time each week compared with the same for cafes.

 

I've actually wondered at points through this pandemic whether the PM quite "gets" the change in culture, when he very clearly regards pubs as something really totemic/symbolic, but barely if ever mentions cafes.

 

Which isn't to trvialise the impact of pub closures on those who work in them and their suppliers, or the importance of pubs as social hubs in some places, but, to be brutal, pubs have shut in droves because people ceased to use them, and cafes have opened in droves for the opposite reason.

 

Even Ireland, which always seemed the pub/bar capital of the universe, has see the same shift over the past c20 years.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Nearholmer

[hayfield]

2 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Very true. This country has moved pretty markedly away from being a predominantly pub culture, towards being predominantly a cafe culture. It would be very interesting to see figures for the % of the population  who, in ordinary times, visit a pub one or more time each week compared with the same for cafes.

 

I've actually wondered at points through this pandemic whether the PM quite "gets" the change in culture, when he very clearly regards pubs as something really totemic/symbolic, but barely if ever mentions cafes.

 

Which isn't to trvialise the impact of pub closures on those who work in them and their suppliers, or the importance of pubs as social hubs in some places, but, to be brutal, pubs have shut in droves because people ceased to use them, and cafes have opened in droves for the opposite reason.

 

Even Ireland, which always seemed the pub/bar capital of the universe, has see the same shift over the past c20 years.

 

 

 

Kevin

 

Most of the pubs in my area have relied on food for years, even those in the country. But we have a lot of them which was a nice surprise to me when we moved here. Let's face it with drink driving laws its madness to go for a couple of pints these days 

[TheQ]

2 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Kevin

 

Most of the pubs in my area have relied on food for years, even those in the country. But we have a lot of them which was a nice surprise to me when we moved here. Let's face it with drink driving laws its madness to go for a couple of pints these days 

Especially those in the country, a lot less drinking and driving now..

Outside  of Norwich and similar built up areas I only know of one pub that doesn't rely of food..