Lockdown #2

[Bernard Lamb]

14 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Yes, I pondered that, but our ‘communes’ (parishes or postcodes I think) are of roughly comparable populations, but markedly different areas. The area of “market town and villages” has a rate c250/100k.week, yet an urban area that I know to be not-prosperous has a rate of only c60/100k.week. There is only one urban area with a rate higher than the rural area.

 

I’m lost to explain it, except possibly by complacency in the rural area.

I don't think it can be explained, there seem to be various local influences that render any figures meaningless.

My post code gives 23 positives in the last week a 350 ish figure per 100k and calls it above average. The next postcode gives 18 and 158 and says below average. Now the infected people could be within 200 yards or up to 1.5 miles of me and the boundary wanders about. About 4 weeks ago the number of positives in these areas were 3 and 5 so that shows how rapidly it can spread. The areas seem to be based on council wards rather than actual postcodes.

Bernard

[john new]

5 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

I don't think it can be explained, there seem to be various local influences that render any figures meaningless.

My post code gives 23 positives in the last week a 350 ish figure per 100k and calls it above average. The next postcode gives 18 and 158 and says below average. Now the infected people could be within 200 yards or up to 1.5 miles of me and the boundary wanders about. About 4 weeks ago the number of positives in these areas were 3 and 5 so that shows how rapidly it can spread. The areas seem to be based on council wards rather than actual postcodes.

Bernard

 

Just a thought, and I think it has been mentioned before too, could it be home addresses versus temporary residences (students, agency workers etc.,) with the latter being geographically where people actually have it but the address being registered for the COVID system is their permanent/home one?

[rockershovel]

4 hours ago, john new said:

 

Just a thought, and I think it has been mentioned before too, could it be home addresses versus temporary residences (students, agency workers etc.,) with the latter being geographically where people actually have it but the address being registered for the COVID system is their permanent/home one?

 

.... an important point, I think. Peterborough has a sizeable transient population of East European contract workers, many living in HMO in the Lincoln Road area. It’s become apparent that few of them appear on the Electoral Register, and contracting through agencies based outside the U.K. is common. 

 

Working in Plymouth, a small city with a large student population, many from overseas was an instructive experience. 

 

There are well-known problems of over-crowding and lack of documentation of migrant workers in a number of our cities - the Grenfell Tower tragedy illustrated the point, the recent Leicester Covid19 outbreak was attributed to it, the Herefordshire farm workers case showed the lack of controls in that sector. 

 

I’d be sceptical, to say the least, of the figures produced in a lot of areas. 

[Andy Hayter]

Why would you expect East European workers to appear on the electoral register?

They could only vote in the local elections*, which most British voters shun or the EU elections which are no more.

Voting in National elections is not permitted unless they take up British citizenship 

 

* I assume that has not yet been rescinded since it was a right coming from the dreaded EU.  But I can say that I have lost all equivalent rights in the EU.  Maybe they also have no voting rights at all.  

 

[Nearholmer]

My conclusion after much pondering is that the figures tell you what they tell you, no more and no less, and that without a lot of detailed knowledge of cases, how they spread etc, speculation probably doesn’t add a lot.

 

Still intrigued though, because the ‘urban’ vs ‘rural’ divide is so starkly in the opposite direction from what I expected in this particular case.

[Nick C]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

* I assume that has not yet been rescinded since it was a right coming from the dreaded EU.  But I can say that I have lost all equivalent rights in the EU.  Maybe they also have no voting rights at all.  

 

 

It depends - we have reciprocal agreements with some of the EU countries (certainly Poland, I'm not sure which others) to continue such arrangements for local elections. 

[rockershovel]

13 hours ago, Nick C said:

 

It depends - we have reciprocal agreements with some of the EU countries (certainly Poland, I'm not sure which others) to continue such arrangements for local elections. 

 

Which, though true, is irrelevant in context. 

 

 

[rockershovel]

Meanwhile, it’s Advent soon. Peterborough Cathedral choir produced a series of recorded choral pieces prior to the present lockdown, available as links from their website. 

[rockershovel]

20 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

My conclusion after much pondering is that the figures tell you what they tell you, no more and no less, and that without a lot of detailed knowledge of cases, how they spread etc, speculation probably doesn’t add a lot.

 

Still intrigued though, because the ‘urban’ vs ‘rural’ divide is so starkly in the opposite direction from what I expected in this particular case.

 

.. but in rural areas, lack of options means that people all use the same facilities. If they go to the village shop (if any) they all go to the same shop. Any using public transport, all use the same public transport from the same bus stop. They all congregate in the same areas, go to the same schools, see the same people all the time. 

[Nearholmer]

Yes, that might be part of it.

 

But, if it is the case, then why is it remarkable for a rural area to have such a high rate? One might expect many rural areas to suffer likewise.

 

I got into the numbers a a bit BTW, and the area in question has something under 10 000 people, about 7000 in a market town, and the rest widely scattered in tiny (one shop, one pub) villages. About 35 people a week there have been catching the virus.

 

Mind you, the suburban-density area that I live in, slightly larger population, now seems to be in an unpleasant game of "catch-up": our case rate went up by 138% in the week to 11/11/2020.

 

[john new]

50 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

 

.. but in rural areas, lack of options means that people all use the same facilities. If they go to the village shop (if any) they all go to the same shop. Any using public transport, all use the same public transport from the same bus stop. They all congregate in the same areas, go to the same schools, see the same people all the time. 

 

Have the same small pool of carer/cleaners and people who distribute the groceries etc., from the few remaining facilities too so it is logical extrapolation that one person carrying it would spread it to a higher % of people out of the area total against living  in an area where there are several supermarkets. My elderly mother for example (village based) has a very limited range of outlets she can visit by bus (1 x small Co-op) plus the small store in the next village that delivers, conversely, within six miles I have seven options for big/biggish supermarkets and many smaller convenience store sized one's also. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by john new

[rockershovel]

TBH, if we are discussing figures on the order of a few tens of individuals out of 7-10,000, I'd regard that as so low that figures would vary widely to no particular pattern within that sort of range

[Nearholmer]

Ah, but a possible pattern is now emerging ........ there are pointers suggesting that the issue is asymptomatic transmission among the older pupils at secondary schools, and the council is considering asking (ordering maybe, I don't know what the protocol is) the secondary school in the market town, and the next one across, which is part of the same educational trust, to close for a period.

 

They haven't asked/ordered yet, because they are weighing-up whether it is better to continue with the schools open, using very targeted isolation, or close them and risk having the pupils breach lockdown and mingle outside school.

Edited November 17, 2020 by Nearholmer

[rocor]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Ah, but a possible pattern is now emerging ........ there are pointers suggesting that the issue is asymptomatic transmission among the older pupils at secondary schools, and the council is considering asking (ordering maybe, I don't know what the protocol is) the secondary school in the market town, and the next one across, which is part of the same educational trust, to close for a period.

 

They haven't asked/ordered yet, because they are weighing-up whether it is better to continue with the schools open, using very targeted isolation, or close them and risk having the pupils breach lockdown and mingle outside school.

 

Romeo's and Juliette's?.

[Nearholmer]

Very much so.

 

I bashed round the local riverside parks on my bike for about fifteen miles earlier, as my daily exercise, and noticed at least three teenage couples huddled on damp and draughty benches - love/lust knows no bounds, given that the weather is pretty horrible today and large chunks of the parks are flooded.

[rocor]

22 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Very much so.

 

I bashed round the local riverside parks on my bike for about fifteen miles earlier, as my daily exercise, and noticed at least three teenage couples huddled on damp and draughty benches - love/lust knows no bounds, given that the weather is pretty horrible today and large chunks of the parks are flooded.

 

Potassium bromide added to Alcopops it will have to be then.

[rockershovel]

34 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Very much so.

 

I bashed round the local riverside parks on my bike for about fifteen miles earlier, as my daily exercise, and noticed at least three teenage couples huddled on damp and draughty benches - love/lust knows no bounds, given that the weather is pretty horrible today and large chunks of the parks are flooded.

 

Love will find a way.... asymptomatic transmission? Is that what they are calling it now? 

Edited November 17, 2020 by rockershovel

[Big James]

My partner got sent home today with suspected Covid while going through the routine tests for her job showed her with a high temperature. Now after consulting my uncle who’s a paramedic and my friend who works for the NHS have advised me I’m now self isolating with her. We will get our Covid test results Thursday. Hopefully they are negative so I can go back to work. As while I’m off I’m not being paid. 
 

Big James 

[monkeysarefun]

 South Australia has just had a small  outbreak spring up, after going many months of no local infections. This one seems to have occurred through a cleaner at one of the quarantine hotels we use for quarantining incoming overseas returnees for two weeks touching a contaminated surface.   

 

 Tasmania has just reopened its borders to the rest of Aus, so some bushwalkers from South Australia were part of a group on  a guided walk through the Southwest wilderness yesterday.  Unbeknownst to them, being many miles  from any mobile signal, most  other states including Tasmania had re-closed their borders to South Australians.

Suddenly from nowhere a Tasmanian Parks and Wildlife helicopter arrived, plucked up the South Australians and took them off to spend two weeks in hotel quarantine in Hobart. No one can accuse the authorities of not taking the virus seriously here!

[chris p bacon]

13 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

No one can accuse the authorities of not taking the virus seriously here!

 

We've got numpties here that really should know better.

Yesterday a Nurse travelled from Leicester to where I live to see his mother, he works at a Hospital with a covid problem and his mother already has breathing difficulties (only 1 working lung) he got into an argument with the carers who visit his mother 5 times a day as they refused to enter the property with him there, he doesn't even bother to sanitise or wear a mask and thinks it's all blown out of proportion. 

 

Just what do you do with d*ckheads like that.....I know what I would do..

[Legend]

36 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

 

We've got numpties here that really should know better.

Yesterday a Nurse travelled from Leicester to where I live to see his mother, he works at a Hospital with a covid problem and his mother already has breathing difficulties (only 1 working lung) he got into an argument with the carers who visit his mother 5 times a day as they refused to enter the property with him there, he doesn't even bother to sanitise or wear a mask and thinks it's all blown out of proportion. 

 

Just what do you do with d*ckheads like that.....I know what I would do..

 

Yeah and unfortunately there are a lot of clueless people around . Unfortunately in a pandemic we are only as good as the lowest common denominator . I despair when I see people out partying the night before lockdown . They really just don't get it .

 

I've got an interesting one though , living in Renfrewshire I'm about to go into Wee Nippys Tier 4 , but I usually go shopping 15 mins along the road to Tesco in Port Glasgow which is in Inverclyde and in Tier 3. So I believe I will be breaking the law prohibiting travel from 6pm Friday .   Better get the grub in by 5.59 then !

[Nearholmer]

This looks like a load of good sense to me: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54973530

['CHARD]

What's 'Wee Nippy's' ?

[TheQ]

I'm a guessing,  Wee Willie Crankie

 

Edited November 18, 2020 by TheQ

[Legend]

7 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

What's 'Wee Nippy's' ?

TheQ got it