Lockdown #2

[rockershovel]

14 hours ago, Neil said:

 

 

This I don't understand. You are more afraid of the vaccine than the virus. I think the logic here is non existent, given that the virus (even allowing for all the measures taken, unprecedented in modern times) has been a mass killer and that the vaccine before being certified for use will have undergone closely monitored trials, the results of which will then have been independently scrutinised.

 

It's precisely at times like this that we have to put our trust in accredited experts, not social media, the politicians with their own axes to grind or the barmpot who has read a couple of conspiracy theories about the MMR jab and whose time would be better spent fashioning themself another hat from bacofoil.

 

Exactly so. No vaccine is 100% effective, no vaccine retains its potency indefinitely (because diseases mutate over time) and all vaccines contain some risk, and identifiable consequences to a small proportion of those treated. That’s where Parliament comes in; to phrase suitable questions to ask the experts, and from their answers, debate and decide the proper course of action, in the wider public interest. 

 

It has always been known that the MMR vaccine contains certain small, but identifiable risks. However, so does the disease; and so Parliament has decided that on the balance of probability, the risks of not being vaccinated outweigh those of the vaccine, and so mass inoculation represents the best available balance of risk and outcome. However since that is what the answer represents, parents may dissent if they choose, and withhold their child from the programme; but with the further caveat, that parents doing do, run a small but identifiable risk of being prosecuted in the event of identifiable harm befalling the child from that cause (permanent partial or complete deafness, for example). 

 

Covid19 presents a challenge, in that it appears to primarily (or at any rate, most seriously) to affect those beyond the statistical life expectancy of the population as a whole, with a well-known vulnerability to respiratory infections having fatal consequences (how many elderly die each year, from pneumonia?). I would bet folding money that the great majority of those contracting Covid19 would contract something of the sort, with similar consequences, within a measurable timeframe in any case. Everybody dies of something, sooner or later; especially those nearing the end of their life expectancy in any case. 

 

So, what’s the decision? If the vaccine were a life-time thing, like BCG or MMR, it is best expended on the young - so this is what we do. If it is an annual thing which soon expires, like flu, we concentrate on those most vulnerable. If the supply is limited, then we need a balanced view; which is why the present shrieking and emotional blackmail serves us so badly, because that is precisely what it does not provide. 

 

[TheQ]

With a 90% chance of the vaccination working, providing there aren't too many Anti vaxers, then that will bring the "R" number down so low it will be hard to find someone to pass the virus onto and therefore break the chain..

 

I may have missed it if it's been mentioned before but here is a link to the HMG proposed list of who gets it in what order.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

It's noticeable the early groups of people are quite small in numbers, so the 20 million vaccines from the Pfizer batch should cover most of them..

 

One thought that suddenly popped into my mind, is that many MRCs members will be in the early rounds of vaccination issuing.

 

At our club the average age is well over 60, I'm one of the younger ones, 2 years off retirement but would be in round 6 or 7

Edited November 12, 2020 by TheQ

[Joseph_Pestell]

Nobody, Govt, media, etc., seems to have pointed out that we don't know when all 40 million doses will be available. They have been ordered but other countries will have ordered as well

[rockershovel]

16 minutes ago, TheQ said:

With a 90% chance of the vaccination working, providing there aren't too many Anti vaxers, then that will bring the "R" number down so low it will be hard to find someone to pass the virus onto and therefore break the chain..

 

I may have missed it if it's been mentioned before but here is a link to the HMG proposed list of who gets it in what order.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

It's noticeable the early groups of people are quite small in numbers, so the 20 million vaccines from the Pfizer batch should cover most of them..

 

One thought that suddenly popped into my mind, is that many MRCs members will be in the early rounds of vaccination issuing.

 

At our club the average age is well over 60, I'm one of the younger ones, 2 years off retirement but would be in round 6 or 7

 

Well, there’s a thing. Who’d’a thunk it?

 

One point the document neatly avoids, is the obvious one that once infection in the over-75s is curbed, we will arrive at a point where attributable fatalities drop precipitously. Then we arrive at a situation in which hospitalisation figures remain high, but fatalities are very low, and another focus point appears. 

 

I suspect from this, that there will be a crucial balance point on the order of “widespread vaccination of under-55s”. A crucial thing to understand about English law, and systems derived from it like US law, works on the principle that any given action is legal, unless it is specifically illegal (mostly on the basis of case law, passing through onto the Statute Rolls). Roman Law, used in most European countries, operated on the opposite basis; that no action is legal unless specifically so defined. 

 

Hence the importance of Parliament, and of the best possible quality of information. This is why our government needs to renew its powers every six months, and why Parliament insisted on the right to a vote at such times. It’s why we don’t have a President, although PMs from Blair onwards have tended to behave as though we did. The key question at this point, is what will the figures be when the current powers require renewal, around Easter? That’s where the exit strategy will be found. 

 

[rockershovel]

12 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Nobody, Govt, media, etc., seems to have pointed out that we don't know when all 40 million doses will be available. They have been ordered but other countries will have ordered as well

 

Not so. “Management of expectations” can already be seen on the news. It’s a perfectly valid point, hence my earlier comments about scrutiny of the role of Astra Zeneca. 

[AY Mod]

They walk amongst us - 

 

[Nearholmer]

Can we interrupt the “could we, should we, would we?” Debate for a moment to take a straw poll of how L2 is operating where each of us is?

 

Mt Sitrep L2.007 (yesterday) would go something like:

 

So there’s a lockdown on is there?

 

I drove about four miles to get close to a pal’s house, so that we could take a 2m apart hour or two of exercise rambling round a country park. There was slightly less traffic on the roads than pre-L2 when I went, but by the time I came back the traffic seemed to be at normal-normal, let alone immediately pre-L2 levels.

 

There are enough big multi-functional shops, DIY stores, and garden centres locally that non-essential shopping can continue barely restricted, and what with that and everything else that is allowed to continue as normal, I really do wonder if L2 will have any affect.

 

If it does have a noticeable affect, it will prove conclusively that pubs, restaurants, and people’s homes are the key “avoidable” transmission points.

 

Meanwhile, rates of infection still climb locally, and a steady number of secondary school children are having to go into isolation - one of our eldest’s close pals is in isolation now because a lad he sits next to in some lessons has tested positive.

[TheQ]

Round here In Norfolk the figures have dropped off a cliff, we're down to 14 per 100,000,  the only area increasing is in and around Kings Lynn, although GY remains high (for us).

I think we've got over the influx of Students, and of course Grockle season is just about over..

Traffic is down but not as far down as Lockdown#1, it's several weeks since I've seen anyone in the local or Big Norwich Tesco, or the B+Q without a mask.. 

Often see people wandering around wearing them, I think they've got so used to them now, they forget they're on.. A bit like getting used to wearing glasses..

 

[Reorte]

Here the traffic on the way in to work seems no different now from what it was a couple of weeks ago, and some roadworks made a bit of a jam. It's still quieter than before the first lockdown but a long, long way above the very quiet levels that we had after that. Case-wise in the general area they seem to be more dropping than rising, at least of the high ones (nationally they look to have stabilised, too early for that to be lockdown related).

[rockershovel]

Round here, hard to say. Garden centres, big shops etc all seem to be open, cafes closed. Queueing systems are in place but based on car park occupancy, and difficulty of getting delivery slots, I’d say that doing a big family shop in person hasn’t recovered from Lockdown #1, and won’t in any foreseeable future. 

 

Several counters in B&Q still aren’t open. Kitchen and bathroom sales, wood cut to size.... none are functioning. From anecdotal evidence from someone I know who works there, once the queue outside reaches 20 or do, cars entering the car park just take one look and drive off again. 

 

Dentist reminds me weekly by text, that they are open. I don’t suppose it’s difficult to dissuade people from going to the dentist! Not so the GP Centre, which appears to have achieved its goal of dissuading anyone from troubling them. 

 

Town centre still seems to be virtually abandoned, again this didn’t seem to recover from the first time around. Some pubs open as, in effect, restaurants. Wet sales and general bar trade, virtually nil. Increasing numbers of pubs seem to be simply putting up the shutters, with some appearing almost derelict by now. I wouldn’t care to be locked into a tied house, right now; all must look to their licences...

 

The densely populated areas around Millfield, Lincoln Road and The Triangle, observance of lockdown, social distancing etc appears pretty much nil.

 

Policing appears wholly absent, apart from occasional cars howling round the Parkway. 

Edited November 12, 2020 by rockershovel

[rockershovel]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Can we interrupt the “could we, should we, would we?” Debate for a moment to take a straw poll of how L2 is operating where each of us is?

 

Mt Sitrep L2.007 (yesterday) would go something like:

 

So there’s a lockdown on is there?

 

I drove about four miles to get close to a pal’s house, so that we could take a 2m apart hour or two of exercise rambling round a country park. There was slightly less traffic on the roads than pre-L2 when I went, but by the time I came back the traffic seemed to be at normal-normal, let alone immediately pre-L2 levels.

 

There are enough big multi-functional shops, DIY stores, and garden centres locally that non-essential shopping can continue barely restricted, and what with that and everything else that is allowed to continue as normal, I really do wonder if L2 will have any affect.

 

If it does have a noticeable affect, it will prove conclusively that pubs, restaurants, and people’s homes are the key “avoidable” transmission points.

 

Meanwhile, rates of infection still climb locally, and a steady number of secondary school children are having to go into isolation - one of our eldest’s close pals is in isolation now because a lad he sits next to in some lessons has tested positive.

 

..... assuming that you disregard the number of people WFH, or just not working at all. I’d say the almost complete cessation of some categories of work was a major factor. 

[jonny777]

Had a call from the care home to say my dad (age 97) is one of their residents who has tested positive for Covid. He is showing no symptoms as yet, but is now just wait and see what might happen. 

 

I think it is worse just not knowing. 

[Nearholmer]

47 minutes ago, TheQ said:

we're down to 14 per 100,000

 

Per day, or per week?

 

I just had a look, and North Norfolk is showing "49 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 1 Nov-7 Nov.". If its dropped from that to 14 since 7th, something succeeded.

 

I admit to using North Norfolk as a "safe area comparator" with where my decidedly-no-longer-young mother lives in East Sussex (Wealden), which is currently showing "66 cases per 100,000 people in the latest week 1 Nov-7 Nov.".

 

[Pete the Elaner]

55 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Can we interrupt the “could we, should we, would we?” Debate for a moment to take a straw poll of how L2 is operating where each of us is?

 

 

It is difficult to judge because I am observing lockdown.

My only experience is very limited, from a twice weekly food shop & a daily walk.

I never noticed much difference between during & after lockdown 1. The car parks in town never seemed to get a lot busier & some of the multi-storeys never re-opened.

The food shops I use have not re-implemented their outside queuing systems, but they never got busy again after lockdown 1. I go at quiet times so maybe they just do not need the queuing systems at the times I go?

I never saw many out while I was on my daily run (which is now a walk) but have not noticed a difference between 3 weeks ago & this week. I can't compare this with pre-lockdown 1 because I started going out on my own after lockdown 1 prevented group runs.

[melmerby]

Where I live during lockdown #1 hardly a car moved off their drives apart from one household where they were totally ignoring the rules.

Lockdown #2 and maybe 75% of those that use their cars for work are still using them, so I assume many more must be working (relatively) normally. I think that the hours being worked night be less the normal.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Where I live during lockdown #1 hardly a car moved off their drives apart from one household where they were totally ignoring the rules.

Lockdown #2 and maybe 75% of those that use their cars for work are still using them, so I assume many more must be working (relatively) normally. I think that the hours being worked night be less the normal.

 

Our car was on the go all through lockdown #1 since my wife did pharmacy/shopping runs every day for people isolating and I took my daughter to work (with livestock) on the weekends. The roads were always all but empty.

 

Lockdown #2 I'm doing the school run and if there's a difference to regular traffic I can't see it.

['CHARD]

Report from the suburban sprawl.

 

Immediate vicinity of the house - back to pre-Covid activity levels, due to presence of an Infant/ Junior school 100 yards away. 

 

Neighbours of working age furloughed or working from home, preponderance of older residents' cars not ventured off the drive. 

 

Child-minders restarted and still operational - so parents' vehicles about at ends of the working day unlike during L1. 

 

Plenty of delivery vans, possibly even more than during L1 as people have got used to/ become reliant on internet shopping.   

 

Dog walkers and recreational park users have swelled ranks from pre-L2 but not reached June/ July levels, which is presumably weather-related. 

 

Local town centre - dead except for grocery shoppers.  Local village centre - everything closed except for chip-shop and Co-op, and deserted.  Nearest precinct - essentially functioning as normal, Post Office/ Off Licence/ Grocery shop relatively quiet when I visit - always after 8.0 pm but the lads in the shop report daytime infestation of the great unwashed/ uncovered (often in pyjamas and slippers from what I have observed).

 

What I have definitely observed is a rise in nuisance young drivers, so-called 'car cruisers,' after 7.0-ish.  The souped-up Seat Leon and Vauxhall Corsa brigade.  One such practitioner went on the record in the City's evening paper saying 'what do you expect us to do, stay at home?' 

 

Also, the number of small shop-front businesses that are now sporting To Let signs has increased noticeably.

 

 

[Pete the Elaner]

2 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

What I have definitely observed is a rise in nuisance young drivers, so-called 'car cruisers,' after 7.0-ish.  The souped-up Seat Leon and Vauxhall Corsa brigade.  One such practitioner went on the record in the City's evening paper saying 'what do you expect us to do, stay at home?' 

 

 

[Hroth]

1 hour ago, TheQ said:

Round here In Norfolk the figures have dropped off a cliff, we're down to 14 per 100,000,  the only area increasing is in and around Kings Lynn, although GY remains high (for us).

 

We're currently (1-7th November) at 210 per 100,000 though this is decreasing slowly.  Some districts are generating most of that figure, most are well below.  Its mainly the poor/deprived areas that are suffering.  Death rates have spiked alarmingly.

 

[rocor]

8 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

What I have definitely observed is a rise in nuisance young drivers, so-called 'car cruisers,' after 7.0-ish.  The souped-up Seat Leon and Vauxhall Corsa brigade.  One such practitioner went on the record in the City's evening paper saying 'what do you expect us to do, stay at home?' 

 

 

 

 

 

My condemnation of them would be based upon their adherence to the rules of social distancing. Are they driving solo?, or do they have a car full of friends?.

['CHARD]

4 minutes ago, rocor said:

 

My condemnation of them would be based upon their adherence to the rules of social distancing. Are they driving solo?, or do they have a car full of friends?.

 

Non-essential journeys and dangerous driving is the basis of mine, we don't need injured parties.  They are normally two-up, but over-tinted rear door and tailgate windows could conceal others.

[TheQ]

23 minutes ago, Hroth said:

 

We're currently (1-7th November) at 210 per 100,000 though this is decreasing slowly.  Some districts are generating most of that figure, most are well below.  Its mainly the poor/deprived areas that are suffering.  Death rates have spiked alarmingly.

 

Which would tally with Kings Lynn and Great Yarmouth

[rocor]

13 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

Non-essential journeys and dangerous driving is the basis of mine, we don't need injured parties.  They are normally two-up, but over-tinted rear door and tailgate windows could conceal others.

 

Two up, is certainly one too many. As to dangerous driving, I had assumed a cruise rather than using the street as a drag strip.

Edited November 12, 2020 by rocor
too not two, doh!.

['CHARD]

'Cruising' is a bit euphemistic on behalf of the authorities, to be honest! 

[Bernard Lamb]

The only sign of any change under Lockdown 2 in this part of the world is that the groups of young men no longer gather in the local Spoons but have moved a hundred yards along the road to Greggs. They are probably different young men but they all look the same to me.

Bernard