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1 hour ago, DMB5050 said:

Hi Fran, I must admit, I didn’t realise making tools for a TT version would cost a million pounds! Wow! 😳 I guess, like most of your average RM Web punters, we all like to think that when the design and research work is shared, it lowers the cost of producing something in a different scale. I guess this doesn’t bode well for N gauge either then? 

 

Research is a very small percentage of the cost of a model. And you can't reuse much of a design for a model in a different scale. Unfortunately it's not as simple as just downsizing by 50% (or whatever). Even if you could, it's still a small percentage of the cost of a model. The vast majority is the costs for the tooling. It's why unique models cost a decent chunk more than run of the mill, for example the class 89 vs the class 92. The 92 should probably be more expensive as it has two working pantographs. But the class 89 has just one class member, and 5 liveries. There's a limit to the number of models you can sell of it. Whereas the class 92 has 46 members and a lot of different liveries. There's a limit to how many you can sell of them, but it's a lot higher. Say the class 92 will out sell the 89 by 4 to 1. If they both have the same tooling costs then the cost per model will be 4 times higher for the 89, hence the higher price. 

I guess what I'm saying is that people would expect TT120 models to be cheaper than OO, but if you're having to spread tooling costs over a much smaller run, as you'll never sell as many TT models as OO, then they might not be. I mean look at N gauge. Those models aren't much cheaper than OO, and certainly not half!

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2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Hornby has (or rather the former regime at Margate had) its own reasons for adopting a scale completely new to UK outline model railways. Some of those reasons are the new brands like Accurascale that have been abstracting chunks of turnover from the OO market over which Hornby formerly held sway.

 

Thus, "supporting" TT:120 could, to some degree, be equated with supporting Hornby. 


Modellers who have taken up TT:120 naturally desire the support of another participant committed to "conventional" production rather than the 3D printed and Laser cut offerings from most entrants that can be "shot" up or down for multiple scales, with little in the way of specifically TT investment. 

 

However, it's unlikely that Hornby shares that yearning....

 

Accurascale et al got into producing r-t-r OO because they saw the gaps that Hornby were leaving open for them, both in coverage, and the relationship between quality and price. There has proved to be enough room for all in OO. However, Hornby's past competitive tactics in that scale must be a disincentive to anyone else entering TT:120, a still quite new, and very much smaller sector where duplication might be disastrous.

 

John

Hi John,

 

I think a lot of Hornby’s problems now, are, to a large extent, because of the previous regime. I think Mr K was blissfully unaware how much the D&E sector was growing and he carried on regardless, producing ever more obscure ‘niche’ steam models with every new release. Had he retooled some of their ageing diesels (for example the Class 50,Class 56,Class 31) and prioritised retooling steam models with more mass appeal, you could argue that the company would be in a much better financial position than it is now.

 

Having said that, I think he was actually right about TT:120 and I think it has the potential to be an established scale. 
 

Unfortunately, the way he went about launching it was a lesson in ‘how to shoot yourself in the foot’. Had Hornby been magnanimous when Heljan announced their class 31 and said, ok guys, you produce that and we’ll move onto the next diesel on our list, it would have benefited everyone. The class 08, they could have proved they were already close to market and maybe Heljan could have moved on to their ‘next on the list’ Hornby have only recently shown 00 gauge Class 31 CADs, so it’s very apparent that Mr K was doing some of his infamous ‘land grabbing’ and infuriating the competition at the same time! Interestingly, in an interview in the latest edition of Model Rail, Mr K seems to have realised his epic mistake and is now saying ‘I did not want TT:120 to be exclusive to Hornby’ 

 

The latest regime are also saying they would welcome another big retailer in the scale, as the penny seems to have dropped that the scale won’t get a big uptake until there is more of a range on offer. 
 

Whether another big player is planning something behind the scenes, remains to be seen. Could somone be working on a Class 47? It seems extremely odd that Hornby haven’t prioritised this as one of the first releases (they have publicly stated that no research has started yet!) So is this just complete ineptitude on Hornby’s part? Or are they aware another player is working on one? (maybe Heljan giving it a punt, and using the research for their 00 model - hopefully though with a better looking face!). 
 

I understand Fran’s comments about not wanting to move outside of 00 & 0, but I do think TT:120 does have massive potential, but it will definitely need another player to throw their name into the ring before it can take off. If they do, I think they stand to gain as much as Hornby - pretty much in the same way that Dapol did in N gauge when it started being a competitor to Graham Farish. 
 

Maybe Hornby could have some frank talks with Heljan and come to a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that benefits, not only both manufacturers,but also benefits us lowly TT:120 pioneers’ (who to be fair, are grateful for any new model developments!) 😁

 

 

Edited by nickb4141
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I'm hoping that Accurascale re-release the ex Hatton's FEA intermodal and RHTT wagons in the near future

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2 hours ago, nickb4141 said:

Hi John,

 

I think a lot of Hornby’s problems now, are, to a large extent, because of the previous regime. I think Mr K was blissfully unaware how much the D&E sector was growing and he carried on regardless, producing ever more obscure ‘niche’ steam models with every new release. Had he retooled some of their ageing diesels (for example the Class 50,Class 56,Class 31) and prioritised retooling steam models with more mass appeal, you could argue that the company would be in a much better financial position than it is now.

 

Having said that, I think he was actually right about TT:120 and I think it has the potential to be an established scale. 
 

Unfortunately, the way he went about launching it was a lesson in ‘how to shoot yourself in the foot’. Had Hornby been magnanimous when Heljan announced their class 31 and said, ok guys, you produce that and we’ll move onto the next diesel on our list, it would have benefited everyone. The class 08, they could have proved they were already close to market and maybe Heljan could have moved on to their ‘next on the list’ Hornby have only recently shown 00 gauge Class 31 CADs, so it’s very apparent that Mr K was doing some of his infamous ‘land grabbing’ and infuriating the competition at the same time! Interestingly, in an interview in the latest edition of Model Rail, Mr K seems to have realised his epic mistake and is now saying ‘I did not want TT:120 to be exclusive to Hornby’ 

 

The latest regime are also saying they would welcome another big retailer in the scale, as the penny seems to have dropped that the scale won’t get a big uptake until there is more of a range on offer. 
 

Whether another big player is planning something behind the scenes, remains to be seen. Could somone be working on a Class 47? It seems extremely odd that Hornby haven’t prioritised this as one of the first releases (they have publicly stated that no research has started yet!) So is this just complete ineptitude on Hornby’s part? Or are they aware another player is working on one? (maybe Heljan giving it a punt, and using the research for their 00 model - hopefully though with a better looking face!). 
 

I understand Fran’s comments about not wanting to move outside of 00 & 0, but I do think TT:120 does have massive potential, but it will definitely need another player to throw their name into the ring before it can take off. If they do, I think they stand to gain as much as Hornby - pretty much in the same way that Dapol did in N gauge when it started being a competitor to Graham Farish. 
 

Maybe Hornby could have some frank talks with Heljan and come to a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that benefits, not only both manufacturers,but also benefits us lowly TT:120 pioneers’ (who to be fair, are grateful for any new model developments!) 😁

 

 

There won’t be any gentleman’s agreements - this is business not tennis esp when the quoted amounts are £1 million etc .

 

The fact that various manufacturers have looked at N and said no , kind of says to me it’s reached its market potential .

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Roy L S said:

Hi Fran

 

Interesting to note that it having previously been said that you (Accurascale) would be open to considering some N products and actually canvassing views on what they might be, your comment above now suggests that this is no longer currently the case? If that is true for a long established and well served scale like British N, which is second only to the OO market in terms of size the UK (at 1/4 to 1/5 of it) where financing a range wouldn't be needed to make one or two well chosen products a success, then how might TT120 be a better prospect? Logically there is already some low hanging fruit for N in the shape of the Class 37 and possibly Class 55, already made by you in OO, neither of which are currently available sound ready/fitted in British N.

 

Obviously the above is very easy for me to say when it isn't my money on the line, but is the N market really not viable even for such a widely popular product (1960 to present day) as a shiny new Class 37?

 

Regards

 

Roy


Hi Roy,

 

We are not completely ruling out N in the future, but with a difficult economy at the moment and model railways being a tough market currently (there’s a reason why some retailers/manufacturers are having perma-sales the last 12 months) we have to remain agile and assured with our market decisions. So right now our N plans are paused, but we certainly hope to revisit them in the future.

 

N is 10-15% of the size of the OO market, is arguably been underserved in recent years with useful new models so there is potential there, but we need to grow to a certain size before dedicating resources to it. When we get there it will be interesting to see if TT grows in size to rival it. Our benefit is that we have staff and two factories proficient in designing and manufacturing TT as well as N, so it is something we can take up relatively easily should we decide to proceed. We will just need more bodies to share the load as we continue to expand in OO as well as our two niche markets in O gauge and of course Irish outline.

 

Cheers!

 

Fran

Edited by Accurascale Fran
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10 minutes ago, Craig1989 said:

and when we getting the first accurascale dmu? 

 

cheers Craig 

I think Fran has mentioned that there is a DMU on the way, so it is just a matter of being patient.

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9 hours ago, Accurascale Fran said:


Hi Roy,

 

We are not completely ruling out N in the future, but with a difficult economy at the moment and model railways being a tough market currently (there’s a reason why some retailers/manufacturers are having perma-sales the last 12 months) we have to remain agile and assured with our market decisions. So right now our N plans are paused, but we certainly hope to revisit them in the future.

 

N is 10-15% of the size of the OO market, is arguably been underserved in recent years with useful new models so there is potential there, but we need to grow to a certain size before dedicating resources to it. When we get there it will be interesting to see if TT grows in size to rival it. Our benefit is that we have staff and two factories proficient in designing and manufacturing TT as well as N, so it is something we can take up relatively easily should we decide to proceed. We will just need more bodies to share the load as we continue to expand in OO as well as our two niche markets in O gauge and of course Irish outline.

 

Cheers!

 

Fran

HI Fran

 

Thank you for such an open and honest thought provoking response.

 

As a manufacturer I appreciate the need to make sure you make plans based on the most reliable information possible, but I would be interested to know where you got your data from and how recent it is? For a very long time N has been reported at around 20% of OO, I can understand that lack of availability from the principal manufacturer (Bachmann) may for a time have driven down supply for a time in recent history (we N Gauge modellers could see it clearly), but demand has always been there and over the last couple of years (to be fair to them) that supply side has more recently being addressed both by re-runs from existing tooling and new tool models too. On top of that there is Dapol, who continue to produce N  plus several comparatively recent players in the N space too, specifically Revolution Trains (who you have worked with on the PCA Cemflos I believe) , Sonic, and Rapido. All of this does suggest there is growth in the scale with potential for more as homes get smaller. 

 

I find TT120 an interesting one, and I'll admit to buying some Hornby models to get a feel for it. Speaking personally (I stress my opinion only) I can see there may be some benefits in the 1/5 larger scale (than N) in terms of kit/scratch-building and possibly a better size for pure "shunting" layouts due to extra volume (and of course therefore weight). However, the downside is that for an equivalent layout to N the space needed is quite significantly more, so from that perspective it is at a disadvantage. Time will tell, but with only one principal manufacturer and everybody else (pretty much) just watching, I would suggest it is going to be a very long time before TT120 grows sufficiently to challenge any established scales (if it ever does).

 

Interesting to hear your mention of the tough market conditions for a model railway manufacturer and the perma-sales you refer to, but inevitably I would suggest that these sales are predicated not necessarily only by market conditions but also by demand. For example if two competing manufacturers launch a model of any popular loco into the market at roughly the same time and significant volumes of it hit the market, the positive thing that comes out of that is choice, however the more negative thing is over-supply which softens demand at a specific price-point and that leads to sales and reduction in margins. After all OO is a very crowded market with huge volumes of new products coming through from a raft of manufacturers, and it is not uncommon to see competing duplicate models.

 

I do sometimes reflect on how much potential growth remains in OO or whether a "saturation point" will be reached, where there is so much choice especially in current market conditions that it hits sales volumes of even the most "popular" models, further entrenching the "perma-sale" culture and were that to happen I do worry that someone is going to get badly "burned".

 

I'm most certainly not asking for an answer to any of this, it is just a personal reflection..

 

Regards

 

Roy

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

HI Fran

 

Thank you for such an open and honest thought provoking response.

 

As a manufacturer I appreciate the need to make sure you make plans based on the most reliable information possible, but I would be interested to know where you got your data from and how recent it is? For a very long time N has been reported at around 20% of OO, I can understand that lack of availability from the principal manufacturer (Bachmann) may for a time have driven down supply for a time in recent history (we N Gauge modellers could see it clearly), but demand has always been there and over the last couple of years (to be fair to them) that supply side has more recently being addressed both by re-runs from existing tooling and new tool models too. On top of that there is Dapol, who continue to produce N  plus several comparatively recent players in the N space too, specifically Revolution Trains (who you have worked with on the PCA Cemflos I believe) , Sonic, and Rapido. All of this does suggest there is growth in the scale with potential for more as homes get smaller. 

 

I find TT120 an interesting one, and I'll admit to buying some Hornby models to get a feel for it. Speaking personally (I stress my opinion only) I can see there may be some benefits in the 1/5 larger scale (than N) in terms of kit/scratch-building and possibly a better size for pure "shunting" layouts due to extra volume (and of course therefore weight). However, the downside is that for an equivalent layout to N the space needed is quite significantly more, so from that perspective it is at a disadvantage. Time will tell, but with only one principal manufacturer and everybody else (pretty much) just watching, I would suggest it is going to be a very long time before TT120 grows sufficiently to challenge any established scales (if it ever does).

 

Interesting to hear your mention of the tough market conditions for a model railway manufacturer and the perma-sales you refer to, but inevitably I would suggest that these sales are predicated not necessarily only by market conditions but also by demand. For example if two competing manufacturers launch a model of any popular loco into the market at roughly the same time and significant volumes of it hit the market, the positive thing that comes out of that is choice, however the more negative thing is over-supply which softens demand at a specific price-point and that leads to sales and reduction in margins. After all OO is a very crowded market with huge volumes of new products coming through from a raft of manufacturers, and it is not uncommon to see competing duplicate models.

 

I do sometimes reflect on how much potential growth remains in OO or whether a "saturation point" will be reached, where there is so much choice especially in current market conditions that it hits sales volumes of even the most "popular" models, further entrenching the "perma-sale" culture and were that to happen I do worry that someone is going to get badly "burned".

 

I'm most certainly not asking for an answer to any of this, it is just a personal reflection..

 

Regards

 

Roy

 

 


Hi Roy,

 

No problem at all. I try to be as open and honest as I can, but of course I am told info from time to time that is commercially sensitive so I cannot always reveal everything! But, there is no great mystery about how we operate and I’m always happy to explain decisions where I can. Just to clarify though; we are not ruling out N, it’s just not happening right now. We have too many N gaugers on the team to never not do it at some point! 
 

Regarding our data, it is garnished from some of our retail partners over a period of 3 years. Each reported somewhere between 10-15%. Now, that could of course be down due to supply you say, but we trust that data. It doesn’t rule it out of course, just gave us a moment to pause.

 

On TT, I do have an interesting insight. After we launched the Deltic in 2018, we were approached by a prominent retailer and they revealed a grand plan to launch a whole TT system to be developed and wanted to get all manufacturers on board. They asked if we would be up for paralleling development of a TT Deltic alongside the OO one. As we were really a wet week in the UK market, we backed away and since then plans were shelved by the retailer. We did ask why not push N more, and their words to us were “N is dead.” We were taken aback by that statement! It does demonstrate though that TT has been in the minds of some for many years, and we were pitched it at the tail end of the idea, other manufacturers being told about it in the preceding months and years before.

 

Regarding your conclusions on the perma sale, I’m not sure I agree. We had a head to head with our 37, and did not need to discount, despite making a huge amount of them. There are also other models with no competitor in the market that are on sale. The issue is over supply and a market slump due to present economic conditions. Hopefully it improves in the months and years ahead to keep the hobby healthy. Luckily we are still growing sales, which we are delighted with.


Cheers!

 

Fran


 

 

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11 hours ago, Accurascale Fran said:

N is 10-15% of the size of the OO market,

 

33 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

N has been reported at around 20% of OO

 

Data from surveys I've done (which could do with another one after the emergence of TT120) tell me that around 17% of modellers had an interest in N. Whether that is still accurate could be looked at but a previous look at the info suggested that N modellers did not spend as much, on average, as OO or O so the market 10-15% spend could also be true. Is that because of modelling budgets or because of supply? The data wouldn't give me an answer there.

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36 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

Is that because of modelling budgets or because of supply? The data wouldn't give me an answer there.

 

And there's the rub.  I'm a pensioner with a limited budget and, whilst largely an N gauger, most of my purchases in the last 24 months have been OO from the likes of Accurascale, Cavalex and Rapido - that's where the majority of quality releases have been.  If there'd been a Deltic-like Deltic in N I would have bought one😉

 

It's not that I particularly like 00.  If the Accuravalex offerings had been in TT120, HO or EM that's what I'd have bought🫡

Edited by franciswilliamwebb
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18 minutes ago, Accurascale Fran said:


Hi Roy,

 

No problem at all. I try to be as open and honest as I can, but of course I am told info from time to time that is commercially sensitive so I cannot always reveal everything! But, there is no great mystery about how we operate and I’m always happy to explain decisions where I can. Just to clarify though; we are not ruling out N, it’s just not happening right now. We have too many N gaugers on the team to never not do it at some point! 
 

Regarding our data, it is garnished from some of our retail partners over a period of 3 years. Each reported somewhere between 10-15%. Now, that could of course be down due to supply you say, but we trust that data. It doesn’t rule it out of course, just gave us a moment to pause.

 

On TT, I do have an interesting insight. After we launched the Deltic in 2018, we were approached by a prominent retailer and they revealed a grand plan to launch a whole TT system to be developed and wanted to get all manufacturers on board. They asked if we would be up for paralleling development of a TT Deltic alongside the OO one. As we were really a wet week in the UK market, we backed away and since then plans were shelved by the retailer. We did ask why not push N more, and their words to us were “N is dead.” We were taken aback by that statement! It does demonstrate though that TT has been in the minds of some for many years, and we were pitched it at the tail end of the idea, other manufacturers being told about it in the preceding months and years before.

 

Regarding your conclusions on the perma sale, I’m not sure I agree. We had a head to head with our 37, and did not need to discount, despite making a huge amount of them. There are also other models with no competitor in the market that are on sale. The issue is over supply and a market slump due to present economic conditions. Hopefully it improves in the months and years ahead to keep the hobby healthy. Luckily we are still growing sales, which we are delighted with.


Cheers!

 

Fran


 

 

 Hi Fran

 

Again thank you for sharing, I was aware that at least one of your number was an N Gauge modeller!

 

From what I can recall it was revealed after launch that TT120 was also something that had been on Simon Kohler's radar for some considerable time before a decision was made to proceed. Again it does perhaps speak to the crowded OO market to have thoughts to diversify into another scale and have that market largely to themselves at least for a time.

 

Obviously I do not know which retailer approached you about the Deltic and have no wish to, that information is understandably commercially sensitive. However, let's be honest there are few retailers who would have the kind of "clout" to launch a brand new scale. Being quite deliberately cryptic, if that manufacturer happened to be one which is no more, but had a long history, and for a long time wrapped parcels in brown paper and tied them with string, then it is worth remembering perhaps that the principal manufacturer of British N stopped supplying them which meant a lot of people (myself included) no longer bought their N products from that outlet, so they may well have considered such sales "dead". (I won't go into the reported reasons but it has been extensively discussed). Conversely the N Gauge Society continues to thrive with over 6000 members currently, most modelling the British scene!

 

As to OO sales, sorry, I wasn't thinking that Accurascale had needed to discount models, more that it was the consequence of a lot of models landing at retailers and they were needing to. I am naturally pleased that your sales continue to grow and hope that continues for you and all others in the industry. Hopefully economic conditions will start to improve, in particular current lower inflation and further reductions in interest rates would help I think.

 

And of course I look forward to any N products you might produce at some point in the future, based on the N Gauge PCA Cemflos and your range of OO models I am sure they would be quite something!

 

Again, thank you.

 

Regards

 

Roy

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2 hours ago, Wickham Green too said:

What on earth is THAT ??!? ................ which might imply that I've never seen one/it and I wonder how many others have ? = probably not on many people's top priority wish list !

It's the new weedkiller train, 3 bogies flats, pretty much goes anywhere so can justify a place on any mi layout and needs 2 GBRF 66s (sometimes 69s and the 2 50s hauled it on the SVR).

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1 hour ago, Pmorgancym said:

It's the new weedkiller train, 3 bogies flats, pretty much goes anywhere so can justify a place on any mi layout and needs 2 GBRF 66s (sometimes 69s and the 2 50s hauled it on the SVR).

 

They are KFA bogie intermodal flat wagons numbered TIPH 93371 (Outer Module), VTG 95380 (Inner Module) and TIPH 93450 (Tank Module).

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13 hours ago, Wickham Green too said:

What on earth is THAT ??!? ................ which might imply that I've never seen one/it and I wonder how many others have ? = probably not on many people's top priority wish list !


It is an odd looking beast isn’t it? Stabled in Truro yard last time I was there and I too wondered what it was. 
 

Roy

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9 hours ago, Roy Langridge said:

It is an odd looking beast isn’t it? Stabled in Truro yard last time I was there and I too wondered what it was. 

Clearly not something Network Rail are proud to advertise ! .... well, going round blitzing all those poor defenceless weeds, I suppose you can understand that !!?!

 

2743.13DSC_0357.JPG.99a19de302efc45b81cc174a128d9112.JPG

Boston : 8/6/24 ( Taken from public level crossing.)

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On 31/08/2024 at 16:16, nightstar.train said:

 

Research is a very small percentage of the cost of a model. And you can't reuse much of a design for a model in a different scale. Unfortunately it's not as simple as just downsizing by 50% (or whatever). Even if you could, it's still a small percentage of the cost of a model. The vast majority is the costs for the tooling. It's why unique models cost a decent chunk more than run of the mill, for example the class 89 vs the class 92. The 92 should probably be more expensive as it has two working pantographs. But the class 89 has just one class member, and 5 liveries. There's a limit to the number of models you can sell of it. Whereas the class 92 has 46 members and a lot of different liveries. There's a limit to how many you can sell of them, but it's a lot higher. Say the class 92 will out sell the 89 by 4 to 1. If they both have the same tooling costs then the cost per model will be 4 times higher for the 89, hence the higher price. 

I guess what I'm saying is that people would expect TT120 models to be cheaper than OO, but if you're having to spread tooling costs over a much smaller run, as you'll never sell as many TT models as OO, then they might not be. I mean look at N gauge. Those models aren't much cheaper than OO, and certainly not half!

 

There's always exceptions ... I'm very happy with my one Class 92, but have 2 class 89s on order!! 🤔😉

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3 hours ago, Wickham Green too said:

Clearly not something Network Rail are proud to advertise ! .... well, going round blitzing all those poor defenceless weeds, I suppose you can understand that !!?!

 

2743.13DSC_0357.JPG.99a19de302efc45b81cc174a128d9112.JPG

Boston : 8/6/24 ( Taken from public level crossing.)

That is shocking! We really are fast degenerating into a Third World country if we can't look after our basic infrastructure properly.

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3 hours ago, Wickham Green too said:

Clearly not something Network Rail are proud to advertise ! .... well, going round blitzing all those poor defenceless weeds, I suppose you can understand that !!?!

 

2743.13DSC_0357.JPG.99a19de302efc45b81cc174a128d9112.JPG

Boston : 8/6/24 ( Taken from public level crossing.)

It's made a few trips up the Central Wales Line, to no visible effect....

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