HS2

[phil-b259]

10 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

You are of course assuming that people cab get seats on GWR trains to/from London.   Take a tip if you fancy travelling to Bristol via Bath on a Saturday make sure you're at the head of the queue joining the train at Paddington and aren't trying to get on it anywhere between Didcot and Bath (and rush for a seat at Reading);  I thought it was just like that in high summer due to day trippers to Bath but it's just as bad in late September.  

 

Same can be said at certain times of day between Parkway and London although at other times tthe trans are quieter and you'll get seat without difficulty if you're joining west of Swindon. 

This is or course true - but I did observe that all London bound trains were 9 or 10 car IETs and none appeared to have got to the extent that people were standing in the isles.

 

As such were I looking to take a journey from the Bristol area to Birmingham then going via London - particularly as GWR and Avanti offer cheap advance fares would have to be a strong contender.

 

Note I am awere that even 9 / 10 car IETs can struggle to cope at times - I have made several trips to the West Country during the summer over the past few years and on each occasion standard class has been absolutely rammed to the rafters (we booked first precisely to avoid this)

[phil-b259]

On 17/10/2024 at 14:37, The Stationmaster said:

Inevitably XC Ron - no other way of minimising the number of changes.  But that means pre-reserved seats and a liking for the thrills of sitting on top of a noisy diesel engine while watching your luggage like a hawk.  Flying would be a lot simpler, and probably cheaper until Air Passenger Duty (or whatever it's called now) on short haul flights is massively increased.

 

Maybe things could improve when the Voyagers have had their day and 9 car bi/tri-mode 80Xish sets could replace them to at least solve the over-crowding problem as there is no longer the universal platform length constraint at Reading.  There are an awful lot of folk around who still who prefer the simplicity of a minimal number of changes on their journey and value that over time saved - it's certainly a comment you hear a lot when travelling on XC trains (apart from the moans about over-crowding or having to change trains/sets when XC make short term set working alterations).

 

I don’t think anyone is disputing that Mike - it’s rather the case that the current levels of overcrowding on XC make it something of a distress purchase for those who use rail regularly.

 

A combination of longer trains, fewer intermediate station calls (with extra services to cover the gaps created) would do wonders in terms of making XC a more pleasant user experience.

 

One of the much overlooked elements of the now scrapped HS2 eastern leg (and in some ways a far more important aspect than London - Leeds services) was the ability for fast Birmingham - the NE services which would miss out the most overcrowded bit of the XC network.

 

Furthermore if OLE ever makes its way from Birmingham to Bristol (and beyond) - as it would have done by now in any other Western European nation - then subject to a suitible connection to the classic network at Washford Heath being added then said Birmingham -NE trains could start back at Bristol.

 

Now obviously given the eastern leg of HS2 is very much dead all of the above could be considered daydreaming - but to return to reality the basic premise that chronic overcrowding puts people off from using XC is still sound - and as a result going ‘via London’ from places along the GWML is not quite as unattractive as you make out.

Edited Friday at 15:49 by phil-b259

[locoholic]

The media is full of HS2-related leaks and briefings this morning. I thought this quote from MSN was interesting:

 

"In the analysis by HSRG (High Speed Rail Group) and the policy group Greengauge 21, the currently-proposed line from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street will cost £47bn, but its limitations mean the railway would have a potential concession value of only £5bn.

Building on to Euston and Crewe, while costing another £11.5bn, could make it worth £20bn, the analysis showed."

 

Is the cost of OOC to Curzon Street and Handsacre really only (!) £47 billion? The cost of the tunneling from OOC to Euston and the construction of Euston station is apparently £6.5 billion, which leaves £5 billion for Handsacre to Crewe.

 

It's telling that even pro-rail lobby groups concede that a railway that cost £58.5 billion might have a concession value of a mere £20 billion.

 

After all the fantastical costings and ROI estimates that HS2 has generated to date, are we really expected to give any credibility to such new back-of-the-envelope figures?

[62613]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

There is a big difference between opposing Government delivery of something and opposing it outright! 

Yes HS2 may have been poorly executed by the state - and yes the IET (i.e. the HST replacement) was also poorly executed by the DfT - BUT the basic premise behind both schemes (I.e. that they are needed) remains sound.

 

Thats the problem with this shadowy pressure group (TA) who have a track record of opposing things which are sound in principle and studiously ignore science or real world experience.

 

Given no passenger railway network in the world generates enough cash from its operations (including things like advertising and property rents - not just fares) to renew and significantly expand its assets / network then pretending that (1) rail transport can be left to the private sector to deal with and (2) this lack of self financing is not a problem because it shows rail does not need enhancing in spite of our chocked road and the looming disaster that is climate change shows the organisation up for what it is - a self serving bunch of greedy rich right wingers.

 

Passenger focused rail investment will ALLWAYS require a degree taxpayer cash - particularly when it comes to network expansion - the only real point of contention is actually who should be in charge of delivering that expansion.

 

There is also a big difference between saying ‘I wouldn’t have started out this way but let’s make the best of things’ and ‘let’s fossilise the current state of play and thus garuntee something becomes a white elephant for generations to come!

 

A HS2 consisting of only phase one is a ‘white elephant’ precisely because it’s been stripped of the bits which mean it can be fully utilised once built - running a railway designed for 18TPH at 6-9 TRH in perpetuity is a textbook example of wasting taxpayers cash if I ever saw it. Add on Euston and phase 2A then your 18TPH line can actually run at its full 18TPH meaning it’s not a ongoing waste of cash as it’s potential is being fully utilised - which in turn means it cannot be considered as a ‘white elephant’

 

But do TA alliance care about that - of course not! All they care about is tax cuts for their Wealthy backers* the fact that the UKs roads are becoming more and more congested year on year or man made climate change is brining more and more misery through flooding etc every year doesn’t feature in their selfish thinking.

 

*  this ‘looking after ordinary taxpayers’ stuff  is a smokescreen - for every 1p the a stage person saves the showery backers of TA will be saving more like £100

The fact that there are two other organisations similar to them operating from the same building (The Institute of Economic Affairs, and another, climate  - denying, pressure group whose name escapes me at the moment) and that we don't know who funds them, should tell you something.

[The Stationmaster]

35 minutes ago, locoholic said:

The media is full of HS2-related leaks and briefings this morning. I thought this quote from MSN was interesting:

 

"In the analysis by HSRG (High Speed Rail Group) and the policy group Greengauge 21, the currently-proposed line from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street will cost £47bn, but its limitations mean the railway would have a potential concession value of only £5bn.

Building on to Euston and Crewe, while costing another £11.5bn, could make it worth £20bn, the analysis showed."

 

Is the cost of OOC to Curzon Street and Handsacre really only (!) £47 billion? The cost of the tunneling from OOC to Euston and the construction of Euston station is apparently £6.5 billion, which leaves £5 billion for Handsacre to Crewe.

 

It's telling that even pro-rail lobby groups concede that a railway that cost £58.5 billion might have a concession value of a mere £20 billion.

 

After all the fantastical costings and ROI estimates that HS2 has generated to date, are we really expected to give any credibility to such new back-of-the-envelope figures?

On a project like this the numbers only make sense if 

1. A common price value base is used throughout in order to take into account inflation, and

2. Every common price value variation from budget (either up or down)  is accounted for and explained, and

3. Any incidental work added to the project cost is identified at common price value and is accouted for and explained.

 

Unless you do that the numbers are basically meaningless or, even worse, can be (and are) presented in a way that makes them mean what you want.

 

I haven't got a clue what 'concession price' is although I could make a couple of educated guesses.  But it again is irrelevant unless it is measured as effectiveness against the required result of the project.  There's no need to consider any sort of 'concession price' for the ill-named HS2 because its purpose is to relieve the WCML - thus its value is increasing potential track access revenue on CTRL, reducing (in several ways) infrastructure damage and thus maintenance and renewal costs on the WCML, having a beneficial impact on perturbation costs in respect of services transferred from the WCML south of wherever to a new and more reliable route and to those trains running on the WCML,  and - purely as an incidental - having a positive revenue impact where journey time might be shortened as a result of taking trains off the WCML.

 

If somebody costs the benefits and consequences of providing the relief route in any other way their understanding of it's purpose is on a par with that of certain parts of the printed media and more than a few village idiots who have been let loose into the wider world (and in many cases have been voted into parliament)

[Michael Hodgson]

13 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

On a project like this the numbers only make sense if 

1. A common price value base is used throughout in order to take into account inflation, and

2. Every common price value variation from budget (either up or down)  is accounted for and explained, and

3. Any incidental work added to the project cost is identified at common price value and is accouted for and explained.

 

Unless you do that the numbers are basically meaningless or, even worse, can be (and are) presented in a way that makes them mean what you want.

 

Most of the discussion of HS2 is by people who have a political axe to grind, one way or another.  So the use of misleading or meaningless  figures is only to be expected - politicians are well known for their "lies, damn lies and statistics" (a phrase reputedly coined by Disraeli). 

Perhaps one should stand on a platform of "Make the Railways Great Again!" rather than on a platform at Old Oak Common - it's apparently unsafe to stand on a platform at Euston these days.

 

As for what to call it, WCML2 or the WCML Relief Line would have been a little harder to sell.

[Bernard Lamb]

2 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

Most of the discussion of HS2 is by people who have a political axe to grind, one way or another.  So the use of misleading or meaningless  figures is only to be expected - politicians are well known for their "lies, damn lies and statistics" (a phrase reputedly coined by Disraeli). 

Perhaps one should stand on a platform of "Make the Railways Great Again!" rather than on a platform at Old Oak Common - it's apparently unsafe to stand on a platform at Euston these days.

 

As for what to call it, WCML2 or the WCML Relief Line would have been a little harder to sell.

The platforms are safe enough places. The problem is that passengers are not allowed to gain access to them. With LNWR trains for example there is a 3-4 minute slot from platform announcement to all seats being occupied. That makes travel very difficult for a large percentage of the travelling public. Hence the need to gather by the barriers, in the hope that the train does depart from the regular platform. If course this means that passengers from arriving train have to weave through the crowd who are waiting to board and then have to encouter a tidal wave of people rushing down the slope, or worse have to battle their way through the crowd who are waiting around the departure board for the official announcement. 

Bernard

[phil-b259]

59 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

The platforms are safe enough places. The problem is that passengers are not allowed to gain access to them. With LNWR trains for example there is a 3-4 minute slot from platform announcement to all seats being occupied. That makes travel very difficult for a large percentage of the travelling public. Hence the need to gather by the barriers, in the hope that the train does depart from the regular platform. If course this means that passengers from arriving train have to weave through the crowd who are waiting to board and then have to encouter a tidal wave of people rushing down the slope, or worse have to battle their way through the crowd who are waiting around the departure board for the official announcement. 

Bernard

 

But Euston is hardly unique in that respect - every other London termi operates in the same way and suffers from the same problems with regard folk 'hanging round near the barriers' to a grater or lesser extent. Certainly the gateline at Victoria for platforms 16 - 19 used to resemble a Rugby scrum at peak times....

 

No easy solutions however, particularly as last minute platform changes do still happen - yes you could lengthen the time allocated for train boarding (i.e. increase turnaround times) but that reduces station capacity or you could run longer trains - but that also could increase boarding time particularly if the train is not fully gangwayed throughout plus it assumes your longer train is compatible with the stations it calls at once it departs

[rockershovel]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

But Euston is hardly unique in that respect - every other London termi operates in the same way and suffers from the same problems with regard folk 'hanging round near the barriers' to a grater or lesser extent. Certainly the gateline at Victoria for platforms 16 - 19 used to resemble a Rugby scrum at peak times....

 

No easy solutions however, particularly as last minute platform changes do still happen - yes you could lengthen the time allocated for train boarding (i.e. increase turnaround times) but that reduces station capacity or you could run longer trains - but that also could increase boarding time particularly if the train is not fully gangwayed throughout plus it assumes your longer train is compatible with the stations it calls at once it departs

King's X was absolute bedlam for that. The new arrangement with access through the new gates (so you enter the same way regardless of which platform) and passengers leaving head straight to a different set of gates is much better 

[melmerby]

9 hours ago, locoholic said:

which leaves £5 billion for Handsacre to Crewe

Relatively easy build.

AFAICR No tunnels, easy landscape not needing large cuttings or embankments etc.

 

In comparison to the main route, a doddle. Seems daft it was cancelled in the first place, considering the added value it gives.

[Ron Ron Ron]

32 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Relatively easy build.

AFAICR No tunnels, easy landscape not needing large cuttings or embankments etc.

 

In comparison to the main route, a doddle. Seems daft it was cancelled in the first place, considering the added value it gives.

 

Phase 2a from Fradley** to Crewe is only about 35 miles across open countryside.

No tunnels needed, until you arrive at Crewe.

 

** Fradley, just north of Lichfield,  is where the spur off to Handsacre leaves the main HS2 route.

 

 

.

[Ron Ron Ron]

The route is starting to take shape, along certain sections.......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[jamie92208]

And Dominique is being dismantled quickly. 

Jamie

[Ron Ron Ron]

4 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

And Dominique is being dismantled quickly......

 

 

Reminds me of my childhood, when I would create some huge construction with my Meccano, but after a few days, or a week or so, I had to dismantle it and put it all away, so my Mum could hoover and clean my bedroom.

 

.

[adb968008]

On 18/10/2024 at 11:27, locoholic said:

 

 

It's telling that even pro-rail lobby groups concede that a railway that cost £58.5 billion might have a concession value of a mere £20 billion.

 

Pawn shops often only offer a fraction of an assets value, because they hold the power of instant cash, whilst the seller has the desperate need for cash.

its the lowest rung of the sales ladder.
 

Once in the Pawn shop window however the price can often triple, because they protect their margin and leave negotiating headroom, which in turn leaves a margin for a potential buyer who may themselves find a further buyer at the assets true value.

 

The various UK governments have an excellant track record of millionaire largesse spending before finding out they are actually just a 10cent millionaire when the credit card bill arrives at month end.

 

Paying £56bn and selling it for £20bn sounds madness, so why sell ? Why not get the return from that asset, even if that means setting up their own government owned operating company to run it ?  
 

Failing that set up a company on our own UK stock exchange, and let overseas investors buy shares in it, rather than selling a lease to a foreign owned and overseas taxed corporation.
 

Edited Saturday at 11:01 by adb968008

[John Tomlinson]

18 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

But Euston is hardly unique in that respect - every other London termi operates in the same way and suffers from the same problems with regard folk 'hanging round near the barriers' to a grater or lesser extent. Certainly the gateline at Victoria for platforms 16 - 19 used to resemble a Rugby scrum at peak times....

 

No easy solutions however, particularly as last minute platform changes do still happen - yes you could lengthen the time allocated for train boarding (i.e. increase turnaround times) but that reduces station capacity or you could run longer trains - but that also could increase boarding time particularly if the train is not fully gangwayed throughout plus it assumes your longer train is compatible with the stations it calls at once it departs

 

I'm old enough to remember, back in the early 80's, when rush hour travellers at Cannon St. used to queue on the platform in an orderly fashion to pretty well the right spot where the doors would be on the incoming train. That's civilisation for you in a nutshell!

 

John.

[phil-b259]

18 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 

I'm old enough to remember, back in the early 80's, when rush hour travellers at Cannon St. used to queue on the platform in an orderly fashion to pretty well the right spot where the doors would be on the incoming train. That's civilisation for you in a nutshell!

 

John.

Which is fine if there aren’t any platform alterations!

 

If there were then you get two sets of commuters getting in each others way as they try and swap.

 

There is also the practical point that it’s a lot easier (and much quicker) for cleaners to do their job if passengers aren’t getting in their way and though your average suburban commuter might not be too picky about litter / working toilets your long distance traveller will!

[woodenhead]

39 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

 

I'm old enough to remember, back in the early 80's, when rush hour travellers at Cannon St. used to queue on the platform in an orderly fashion to pretty well the right spot where the doors would be on the incoming train. That's civilisation for you in a nutshell!

 

John.

I'll bet in that circumstance the arriving train has only a few passengers alighting as it is against the flow (incoming mornings, outgoing evenings).

 

When a train arrives a Euston at any time a lot of people pour off the train and they don't do so in a commuter 1980s style march, they tend to be travel weary with a mix of abilities and ages so it takes time.

 

Those in the know use RealTime trains to plan where to be waiting to gain an advantage, however, constant refreshing is needed as they frequently change platforms at short notice and it always seems to be from one side of the station right to the other.

[John Tomlinson]

34 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

I'll bet in that circumstance the arriving train has only a few passengers alighting as it is against the flow (incoming mornings, outgoing evenings).

 

When a train arrives a Euston at any time a lot of people pour off the train and they don't do so in a commuter 1980s style march, they tend to be travel weary with a mix of abilities and ages so it takes time.

 

Those in the know use RealTime trains to plan where to be waiting to gain an advantage, however, constant refreshing is needed as they frequently change platforms at short notice and it always seems to be from one side of the station right to the other.

 

Indeed, the times I witnessed this the trains involved were the Hastings line sets, with City folk going home in the early evening.

 

John.

[rockershovel]

It's not that simple. The cleaning contractor WILL insist on their full allocated window, because they will be penalised for complaints. They have no incentive to use less time.

 

In my later commuting stage (about 1991 - 1992) commuters at King's X were becoming increasingly disaffected. Fares were being ratcheted up, the WAGN fiasco was in full swing, timekeeping was in a downward spiral and customer relations were not a priority, it seemed.

 

I remember one occasion when a series of excuses about a delayed or possibly, cancelled service was greeted with a prolonged outburst of angry bleating, like sheep who have had enough.

 

Another occasion I fully expected to turn into a full-on public disorder. 

 

I stopped commuting around that time and didn't miss it at all 

 

 

[jamie92208]

Mention has been made earlier about the slab track for the new line. I've done a bit of digging and it seems that Porr UK have been awarded a £246 million contract and are building a new factory near Shepton Mallet next to the Torr quarry, which I think is the Foster Yeoman one.  There are no recent photos of it but this press release details most of it. Planning permission has been granted and the archaeological surveys have been done.  The site is referred to as a brownfield one known as the Trinidad site.  Perhaps a former asphalt plant, Limmer Trinidad used to be a big producer. 

 

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/western-daily-press/20221014/281612424309097?srsltid=AfmBOor7VZ_-9IZECxexKacL9lALkk1hiPZQAxtmiH44Fl2Prb9tWYA9

 

Jamie

Edited Sunday at 10:33 by jamie92208

[Bernard Lamb]

On 18/10/2024 at 17:06, phil-b259 said:

 

But Euston is hardly unique in that respect - every other London termi operates in the same way and suffers from the same problems with regard folk 'hanging round near the barriers' to a grater or lesser extent. Certainly the gateline at Victoria for platforms 16 - 19 used to resemble a Rugby scrum at peak times....

 

No easy solutions however, particularly as last minute platform changes do still happen - yes you could lengthen the time allocated for train boarding (i.e. increase turnaround times) but that reduces station capacity or you could run longer trains - but that also could increase boarding time particularly if the train is not fully gangwayed throughout plus it assumes your longer train is compatible with the stations it calls at once it departs

Euston not Unique? Which other stations have blocks of platforms approached by a long ramp leading from the concourse? The world and his dog are all moaning about Euston. The major part of the problem is the lack of progress with HS2. Exit to the west and towards Euston Square, is now restricted. With my last group outing, around 30 people, I told them not to use Euston Square, even though TfL suggested it as the best onward route. I am certainly not alone in ignoring the signed routes and taking a better option. You have to go via the concourse to get to most locations. Crossing the main road, to reach the better refreshment places, is now an obstacle course. Access to the underground has been improved, providing that you arrive on certain platforms. Otherwise you have to go out of the building, fighting your way through the crowds and then back in, usually against the people trying to exit the building. You are then faced with having to cross the flow of people coming through the exit barriers as you head for the entry barrier. Is any other large station like that? At least there seems to be a move underway to improve the toilets. The new trains are rather nice, when you get one, with a very smart colour scheme.

Bernard

[chris p bacon]

From the BBC

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

 

As if politicians will know what they're looking at.

[John Tomlinson]

Whilst scrolling through my Twitter/X feeds, I came across this from Louise Haigh - hot off the press as you might say, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/transport-secretary-announces-urgent-action-to-get-a-grip-on-spiralling-hs2-costs

 

John.

[jjb1970]

55 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

From the BBC

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54gv99dz1o

 

As if politicians will know what they're looking at.

 

Unfortunately, I suspect they actually do consider themselves to be just the right people for the job.