HS2

[MidlandRed]

7 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Don't forget the link to Heathrow. This was an important factor as well.

 

Yeah - extremely important especially given the proposals (pre Covid) to expand Heathrow. 
 

Lots of technical/ economic reasons for OOC then. 

Edited October 15 by MidlandRed

[jjb1970]

London airport expansion is back on the cards, I think all of the London airports (a slightly loose concept I admit) are looking at expanding capacity and it looks like LHR may well reactivate the third runway plan. Projections that COVID signalled the end of the physical office, business travel and much else haven't aged well.

[jjb1970]

4 hours ago, corneliuslundie said:

The problem is that CX provides a service which is needed, it is just that it is done badly.

 

Dear me, while Cathay Pacific isn't my favourite airline I  wouldn't say they do what they do badly. OK, I'll get me coat.

[jjb1970]

7 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I love German trains…
They are Intercity, they ring Berlin… Berlin zoo manages fine.

 

 

I love German trains as an enthusiast but experiences using them over the last decade or so have been far from impressive and on my last couple of visits they were utterly awful. Worse than recent experiences on British trains.

 

The two European countries I think we might do well to study are Belgium and Switzerland. Although I also wish we could find it within ourselves to look beyond Europe and the anglosphere for learning opportunities. 

[jjb1970]

On London, I  rarely use the tube or buses,  though I do like the Elizabeth line when going in/out of Heathrow. The area of zone 1 is very walkable and if you're reasonably confident about where you are walking can be quicker over many journeys and not that much longer over many loner journeys. I used to work in London and the morning and afternoon walk between Euston and the City or Victoria was a nice start bookend to the office day. However buses and tube are good for days of heavy rain.

[rockershovel]

5 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

On London, I  rarely use the tube or buses,  though I do like the Elizabeth line when going in/out of Heathrow. The area of zone 1 is very walkable and if you're reasonably confident about where you are walking can be quicker over many journeys and not that much longer over many loner journeys. I used to work in London and the morning and afternoon walk between Euston and the City or Victoria was a nice start bookend to the office day. However buses and tube are good for days of heavy rain.

Catching a crowded bus on a rainy day sounds perfectly foul. 

 

Agree about the walk though. When I was working nights at London Bridge on the JLE I would often walk from London Bridge to King's X early in the morning. 

[jamie92208]

Meanwhile away from London construction is moving on.  The very impressive Thame Valley viaduct is coming on. 

 

It looks as if they are finally filling in the 3 missing spans at what I think is the south end. 

Rather bizarrely the places where they are stitching the deck beams to the span beams look like two lines of track. 

 

Jamie

[rodent279]

13 hours ago, KingEdwardII said:

I think that they did lack vision - they seemed not to be able to see that for passengers, there were plenty of folk wanting to go through London to places beyond.

 

It was Edward Watkin that eventually showed this kind of vision, but he was unable to pull off his ambitions, late in the day that he was. We are all worse off as a result.

 

Yours, Mike.

 

PS I think Watkin was a true visionary of the railways - he had a hand in railways in Canada as well as the UK and there he conceived of a Canadian trans-continental railway, before it became recognized as not only necessary and useful, but also as being essential to tie the Canadian provinces together politically.

I think they had the vision in some areas, but were not good at joining it all up into a coherent whole.

[rodent279]

7 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

 

I love German trains as an enthusiast but experiences using them over the last decade or so have been far from impressive and on my last couple of visits they were utterly awful. Worse than recent experiences on British trains.

 

The two European countries I think we might do well to study are Belgium and Switzerland. Although I also wish we could find it within ourselves to look beyond Europe and the anglosphere for learning opportunities. 

I think I'd add Italy and Spain to that list. Maybe not quite in the same league as Switzerland and Belgium/Netherlands, but certainly not the Cinderellas they used to be.

[adb968008]

Who on earth is going to take HS2 to OC and change to Heathrow in its current form ?

 

Everyone in London will use the EL, and if it survives Hex.

 

We arent in the 1980’s any more… budget airlines have Europe covered as a spiders web of regional airport to regional airport.
Long Haul Airlines have recognised that point to point is more desirable than hub and spoke, as such the 747 is history, and the A380 is a failure. In its place is the A350 and 787.. and some airlines cant bring themselves to part with 757/767’s due to the same… which is mid-hub to mid-hub

Now lets says your up north, going to really obscure regional airport in the far east … you cannot get there without a connection and BHX hasnt got it, and for whatever unlikely reason its uncompetitive buy hundreds of pounds…

 

Your options immediately are Paris, AMsterdam, Frankfurt, Doha, Istanbul, Dubai.. but then even mid sized hubs / airlines with 787’s are in on the act so Helsinki, Warsaw are ready to compete to get you to an Asia hub like Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing..

 

So now were down to ex-Empire routes… Bermuda, Caymans… Assuming that none of the US airlines arent cheaper via Washington, New York, Atlanta etc.. you can go with BA from LHR…

 

So Wolverhampton, plus 3 suitcases, plus spouse, plus kid…

Taxi to station 

drag suitcases

Multiple lifts

Wait

30 mins elapsed..

Train to New Street 

Multiple Lifts

20 mins plus 10 

Walk 15 minutes to Curzon Street

Wait 15 mins for next train

HS2 to OC 50 mins

Multiple Lifts

Wait

10 more mins elapsed

Train to LHR 15 mins

Multiple lifts

check in 15 mins

 

Minimum time.. 2hr 30

costs on an offpeak saturday 2 Adult 1 child.. £267…

 

 

 

 

What happens when the Wolves to New Street is canceled ?

What happens if the train has no seats and your standing to London ?

What happens when the lift is broke and youve got to drag suitcases up the stairs ?

 

Now why put yourself through that….?

 

Am I joking ..? Well a colleague in Reading recently flew to Newcastle.. when I asked why didnt you goto Paddington, Tube to KX and train to Newcastle… her immediate response was “Train… F… that”..  This is 2024.. people are like water they take the easiest option.

 

When several taxi quotes online suggest for £200 they will take you door to door at the airport also in 2hr 30 down the M40 ?

 

Now if your really doing this to save every penny, your solo, as a kid with a back pack… HS2 isnt on your radar and time is your friend, your already on a £30 quid LNWR fare to London without a care in the world and time on your hands.

 

Or if your a Chinese couple visiting the UK and arrive at LHR, chances are your first stop is a London Hotel, Buckingham Palace, not Walsall high street, and if it was your landing in BHX.

 

What HS2 is not going to do is insure and guarentee your airline connections… with most facing a minimum of two changes to get to Heathrow (some station, to a HS2 train, and another to Heathrow) … saving 15 minutes on HS2 makes no difference to allowing yourself plenty of latitude for delays etc, as missing a flight will hurt your pocket far more… I’d be fascinated to see how many use Avanti today as a HEX connection… domestic flights have never been better, and euro hub competition is massively increased on what it was when HS2 was still just an idea.

 

HS2’s only real chance was direct, and even then it would need to be seamless, check in of luggage at source etc to guarentee connections.., Even HEX gave that up at PAD in 2005.

I would imagine BAA and BA being hostile to a HS2 station as it reduces the lucrative domestic feed flights that LHR currently enjoys and reduces the seamless connection experience..

 

But what it offers now is no better than whats on offer, and I suspect in 2024 thats not really a lot.

 

if LHR connections is the rationale for OC I suggest the govt just found a good chunk of its £40bn hole funds.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 16 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

10 hours ago, MidlandRed said:

I couldn’t agree more. Thameslink is massively used - and bear in mind journeys from places like Bedford and Peterborough are now possible on routes deep into what used to be SR territory. Towards the end of last year I travelled into St Pancras International from Kent via high speed and transferred to Thameslink to travel south to London Bridge - the train I caught was 12 coaches long, admittedly evening peak and Thursday, and I can honestly say it was the most crush loaded train I have ever travelled on - and bear in mind there is a train at least every five minutes on the route (in each direction) in fixed formations of 8 or 12 cars dependent on route. And despite crush loading at St Pancras (including plenty of people travelling from locations to the north), even more got on at the intermediate stations - it was quite difficult to alight at London Bridge where another huge influx got on - next stop E Croydon and onwards to Gatwick and Brighton. Whoever thinks no one travels on Thameslink from locations like Gatwick to locations north of London is misinformed.

 

Sorry to burst your bubble but the statistics (in terms of ticket sales, including. ‘Tap in tap out contactless  - not just hearsay) do not lie - they clearly show that the number of passengers traveling from counties** on one side of London to counties on another via Thameslink are MINIMAL* compared to the number of Thameslink users who start / finish their journeys in Central London.

 

Moreover the crush loadings in core are a product of those traveling to or from Central London having a choice FIVE stations to use meaning there is an overlap between those arriving from the north traveling to City Thameslink and those heading south who chose to start their journeys at Kings Cross.

 

Its notable that when I have traveled north in the morning peak, the full (and standing) 12 car trains do not empty out significantly till you get to Farringdon (though there is a large turnover in passengers at London Bridge with those alighting to leave the station replaced by those coming from Southern terminating or trains from the SE) area but by the time they leave St Pancras they are mostly empty.

 

** Within grater London there is going to be a slightly higher volume of cross London traffic - but not huge amounts. Even with trains every few minutes the numbers on the Northern line going between Finchley and Tooting or between Greenford and Leytonstone on the central line are going to be dwarfed by those who board or alight somewhere in Zone 1.

 

*(50 people per hour might sound like a lot - but as a proportion of 5000 it’s insignificant…..)

Edited October 16 by phil-b259

[phil-b259]

51 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Who on earth is going to take HS2 to OC and change to Heathrow in its current form ?

 

None - not least because for trains starting at Euston Old Oak will be a ‘pick up only’ stop and tickets will not be available for such a trip - precisely because it takes space away from long distance users! ((In the reverse direction the same will be true - trains from the north will call at Old Oak to set down passengers only with nobody able to join trains for the onward hop to Euston)

 

So why is Old Oak even being built you may ask - although it was sold to the media as being a way of linking HS2 to Heathrow the reality is that was always a non starter - precisely for the reasons you describe.

 

In reality the reasons for Old Oak station are:-

 

(1) To provide an alternative place to terminate / start trains in London should some form of emergency restrict or completely close Euston.

 

(2) To provide connectivity to Londons Docklands finically  district (and to a lesser extent the City though obviously taking the Met / H&C from Euston would not be arduous) without the need for multiple changes.

 

(2) To provide connectivity to the Thames valley corridor / west London and avoid potential users having to transfer from Paddington - Euston by tube. Now yes I know that Lizz line trains compare unfavourably to GWR ones but firstly some will prefer the simple change at Old Oak and decide they can put up with a Lizz line train for a short hop with other persons having no GWR option.

 

(4) To try and spread the load over two stations rather than just one - an important consideration given HS2 was originally being built to be computable with double deck Eurostar length trains (I.e. 2X double deck TGVs which can accommodate around 1000 passengers) at a frequency of 18TPH

[MidlandRed]

20 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

*(50 people per hour might sound like a lot - but as a proportion of 5000 it’s insignificant…..)

Whilst you are correct that I don’t have ticket sales (I wonder how many travel by tapping in out incorrectly or no ticket at all on Thameslink to/from some of the more out of town locations). However my main query is over what period are you averaging - there are times (certainly mid evening) when the trains are virtually empty. 
 

I can also safely say I’ve never travelled on a Thameslink that left either St Pancras (to travel to Bedford or to Huntingdon) or London Bridge to travel towards East Croydon that are empty - certainly fairly sparse in a 12 car train when travelling against the peak but by no means empty. However I often would change to EMR for the more civilised and far more speedy non stop to Bedford (with trolley service) - sadly a thing of the past. 

[MidlandRed]

I must say, I perceive OOC possibly as becoming the West London version of Stratford and Stratford International (domestic trains) in terms of interchange possibilities, ultimately - should development progress in a reasonable timeframe. 
 

@adb968008 - surely passengers would take the door to door, level access tram from Wolverhampton to Curzon Street?  

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, MidlandRed said:

Whilst you are correct that I don’t have ticket sales (I wonder how many travel by tapping in out incorrectly or no ticket at all on Thameslink to/from some of the more out of town locations). However my main query is over what period are you averaging - there are times (certainly mid evening) when the trains are virtually empty. 
 

I can also safely say I’ve never travelled on a Thameslink that left either St Pancras (to travel to Bedford or to Huntingdon) or London Bridge to travel towards East Croydon that are empty - certainly fairly sparse in a 12 car train when travelling against the peak but by no means empty. However I often would change to EMR for the more civilised and far more speedy non stop to Bedford (with trolley service) - sadly a thing of the past. 

All things are relative and the ‘empty’ description is compared to the crush loadings seen north of Croydon (or indeed Gatwick /Three Bridges) in the morning peak. The use of this word doesn’t actually mean nobody is travelling and naturally outside of peak hours loadings are move evenly balanced.

 

However even with that, the vast majority of passengers found on a southbound train from London Bridge or a northbound train from St Pancras in the morning peak will still be persons who boarded the train at a central London station and not someone making a cross London (as in Surrey - Bedfordshire) trip.

Edited October 16 by phil-b259

[MidlandRed]

2 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

All things are relative and the ‘empty’ description is compared to the crush loadings seen north of Croydon (or indeed Gatwick /Three Bridges) in the morning peak. The use of this word doesn’t actually mean nobody is travelling and naturally outside of peak hours loadings are move evenly balanced.

 

However even with that, the vast majority of passengers found on a southbound train from London Bridge or a northbound train from St Pancras Siri g the morning peak will still be persons who boarded the train at a central London station and not someone making a cross London (as in Surrey - Bedfordshire) trip.

Southbound to E Croydon, morning peak towards E Croydon, I found quite acceptable - the main question was whether one could obtain an empty double seat in either carriage 1 or two to avoid a long walk along the platform to the exit at E Croydon - I suspect you meant evening peak……… when they are crush loaded. 

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, MidlandRed said:

I must say, I perceive OOC possibly as becoming the West London version of Stratford and Stratford International (domestic trains) in terms of interchange possibilities, ultimately - should development progress in a reasonable timeframe. 
 

@adb968008 - surely passengers would take the door to door, level access tram from Wolverhampton to Curzon Street?  

The tram trip from Wolverhampton takes considerably longer than the train to new street does - particularly as many run non stop!

 

Just because a particular mode might lack changes doesn’t mean its the preferred method - the number of commuters in the Thames valley who prefer to a GWR service to Paddington and change to the Lizz line there rather than board a slow (plus inferior quality train) is telling.

 

In many ways it’s a shame that the GWR route to Wolverhampton wasn’t retained as a heavy rail corridor (and plugged into the high level station) because you could have seen a fast Wolverhampton - Moor Street train link allowing easy transfer to Curzon St station.

 

Of course there were other options - adding a link to HS2 in the Washford Heath area allowing Wolverhampton via new street trains to transfer to HS2 or perhaps adding a station on the Aston lines at the country end of Curzon Street would have improved things - but we are where we are so to speak….

Edited October 16 by phil-b259

[phil-b259]

8 minutes ago, MidlandRed said:

Southbound to E Croydon, morning peak towards E Croydon, I found quite acceptable - the main question was whether one could obtain an empty double seat in either carriage 1 or two to avoid a long walk along the platform to the exit at E Croydon - I suspect you meant evening peak……… when they are crush loaded. 

I’m speaking from the experience of someone who lives south of Croydon!

 

There are an awful lot of people living in Crawley, Haywards Heath, Brighton, etc who travel not just Croydon but onwards to central London.  As I said above 12 car Thameslink trains are regular standing room only from Three Bridges northwards!
 

By contrast very few people in Croydon want to commute down to Sussex in the peaks - with the net effect of leaving southbound trains lightly loaded onwards from Croydon and even more so once any airline passengers (who overwhelmingly join in Central London or Croydon) have alighted at Gatwick.

Edited October 16 by phil-b259

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

None - not least because for trains starting at Euston Old Oak will be a ‘pick up only’ stop and tickets will not be available for such a trip - precisely because it takes space away from long distance users! ((In the reverse direction the same will be true - trains from the north will call at Old Oak to set down passengers only with nobody able to join trains for the onward hop to Euston)

 

So why is Old Oak even being built you may ask - although it was sold to the media as being a way of linking HS2 to Heathrow the reality is that was always a non starter - precisely for the reasons you describe.

 

In reality the reasons for Old Oak station are:-

 

(1) To provide an alternative place to terminate / start trains in London should some form of emergency restrict or completely close Euston.

 

(2) To provide connectivity to Londons Docklands finically  district (and to a lesser extent the City though obviously taking the Met / H&C from Euston would not be arduous) without the need for multiple changes.

 

(2) To provide connectivity to the Thames valley corridor / west London and avoid potential users having to transfer from Paddington - Euston by tube. Now yes I know that Lizz line trains compare unfavourably to GWR ones but firstly some will prefer the simple change at Old Oak and decide they can put up with a Lizz line train for a short hop with other persons having no GWR option.

 

(4) To try and spread the load over two stations rather than just one - an important consideration given HS2 was originally being built to be computable with double deck Eurostar length trains (I.e. 2X double deck TGVs which can accommodate around 1000 passengers) at a frequency of 18TPH

 

I would still add Heathrow connectivity to that list, because back when the HS2 concept was developing into a plan, those doing the research appeared to have no conception of how international air travel was changing.

 

Heathrow had always been the primary interchange for passengers travelling to/from the regions, especially for long haul.

Only Amsterdam had been a significant alternative.

That's all changed.

What has happened over the last 20 years, since the HS2 concept was being formulated, is a very large shift in travel patterns, particularly for Long Haul.

There's been an explosion of connecting hub opportunities, allowing passengers from regional airports to fly direct to an overseas hub, where there's a vast array of connecting flights to almost anywhere in the world.

Now, as well as Amsterdam, you can connect through other European hubs, like Helsinki, Frankfurt, Munich, Paris and Madrid; through Istanbul (now a major international hub), or through the mega Gulf hubs in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi.

 

For example, Manchester is by far the major UK airport outside of London, with not only a range of direct long haul flights to North America and the Caribbean, but to the Far East and Middle East.

In addition Manchester offers multiple flights, every day, to the various Gulf hubs and Istanbul.

In the past, the majority of passengers heading for far flung destinations from northern regions, would have had to make their way to Heathrow, or fly through Amsterdam.

Now they can avoid London altogether and fly in comfort directly to their destination, or via a modern, efficient super-hub, with their luggage all taken care of.

 

e.g. the north of England to Australia.

Manchester to either Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Istanbul and onwards to OZ

Alternatively, a flight from the north, to London and connect there.

Why drag your cases on and off a train, or multiple trains and risk missing your flight?

 

As such, the Heathrow link via OOC will, as others have already said, will not be the most attractive option for most passengers.

 

 

 

.

[Arun Sharma]

17 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Perhaps folk in Victorian times ........

London would have been easier to cross back then too, a lot less people and traffic to contend with and plenty of horse drawn carriages waiting at stations.

Don't think so. The last horse bus ran in Central London around 1918. In the ten years prior to that the average speed of cross-London trafic was around 4-7mph. That is pretty much the same as it is to get from one side of London to the other today.

 

We have the data on cross-London transit down at the London Bus Museum at Weybridge . It appears every time the speed of travel changes [due to technology etc.,], the amount of traffic increases and  consequently the average speed  point to point effectively decreases back to the previous figure.

Edited Wednesday at 12:39 by Arun Sharma
clarity

[jjb1970]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 

In addition Manchester offers multiple flights, every day, to the various Gulf hubs and Istanbul.

 

 

 

.

 

Istanbul airport and Turkish Airlines demonstrate a transformation in the European aviation industry that few people in Britain and the EU seem to have noticed.

 

Istanbul airport is vast, and extremely impressive, probably the most impressive airport in Europe now (it is on the North side of the straits).

 

Similarly Turkish has a staggering route network and excellent onboard service, an extremely good airline. I sometimes use them Singapore - Europe and their fares are usually very competitive and the flight experience as good as it gets (though for various personal preferences I tend to fly via China more).

 

The old European hubs look and feel increasingly tired and past it next to the new mega airports and Euro legacy carriers (BA, AF, LH, KLM, SAS etc) feel expensive and very average.

 

I see a similar evolution in high speed railways. Every person in the western world has an opinion of China but their high speed rail service really is worth trying. It makes my recent ICE and THALYS experiences feel very mediocre.

Edited Wednesday at 12:45 by jjb1970

[adb968008]

6 hours ago, MidlandRed said:

I must say, I perceive OOC possibly as becoming the West London version of Stratford and Stratford International (domestic trains) in terms of interchange possibilities, ultimately - should development progress in a reasonable timeframe. 
 

@adb968008 - surely passengers would take the door to door, level access tram from Wolverhampton to Curzon Street?  

I have to admit aside of Wolverhampton Low Level and the scary walk at night down that alley way to the Holiday Inn there, i’m not an expert on Wolverhampton.

if that saves a few minutes i’m sure it wouldnt make a difference.

😀

[DenysW]

5 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

Of course there were other options - adding a link to HS2 in the

This isn't intended to be a dig at @phil-b259, but hasn't much of the recent discussion failed the @The Stationmaster's repeated manta (my wording) "It goes from Euston to Manchester pretty fast to take that traffic off the WCML!" Any other connections (including, probably, Birmingham) corrupts that objective and means you end up pleasing no-one. Every other connection appears to fit into the category "... and while you are spending all that money, can you just connect ...".

 

If you don't foresee the peak traffic justifying  >9 tph Euston-Manchester within 25 years, then maybe stealing 9 tph for Euston-Curzon St (thus still 18 total) is OK. Nottingham, Derby, Leeds, airports, etc, were all pipe-dreams because it only works if it's frequent (minimum 3 tph I'd say) and doesn't stop. Otherwise existing will be better for those 'can you just' destinations.

[adb968008]

7 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

I’m speaking from the experience of someone who lives south of Croydon!

 

There are an awful lot of people living in Crawley, Haywards Heath, Brighton, etc who travel not just Croydon but onwards to central London.  As I said above 12 car Thameslink trains are regular standing room only from Three Bridges northwards!
 

By contrast very few people in Croydon want to commute down to Sussex in the peaks - with the net effect of leaving southbound trains lightly loaded onwards from Croydon and even more so once any airline passengers (who overwhelmingly join in Central London or Croydon) have alighted at Gatwick.

Reverse commuting from London is one of my favourite forms of business trip.

 

I had great memories years ago heading to the HQ of a well known DIY firm in Southampton taking a 442 from Waterloo and having the whole carriage to myself, sitting centre tables both sides, spread out my stuff, breakfast etc staring out of the window at grey faces of doom, suits of death squeezed desperately into 455’s heading the other way.

😀

Taking class 180’s towards Cheltenham, HSTs to Nottingham would be fun too when mostly empty out of the capital.

 

its still the same today but sitting in a 700 reverse commuting, its me with the grim face… 

Edited Wednesday at 17:26 by adb968008

[MidlandRed]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Reverse commuting from London is one of my favourite forms of business trip.

 

I had great memories years ago heading to the HQ of a well known DIY firm in Southampton taking a 442 from Waterloo and having the whole carriage to myself, sitting centre tables both sides, spread out my stuff, breakfast etc staring out of the window at grey faces of doom, suits of death squeezed desperately into 455’s heading the other way.

😀
 

its still the same today but sitting in a 700 reverse commuting, its me with the grim face… 

I think @phil-b259 and I were at cross purposes, I totally agree re the volume of Thameslink traffic northbound in the peak and southbound in the peak to/from central London locations and E Croydon and well beyond - it was the southbound morning peak from London Bridge towards E Croydon and beyond, where the loading is rather similar to @adb968008 description of South Western towards Southampton from Waterloo in the morning peak. 
 

Re Wolverhampton, the tram is quite a quick journey (though not in comparison with a non stop Wolverhampton to BNS). However it would save the PITA egress from BNS (what a peculiar concourse and platform egress design…..) and non level walk to Moor St Queensway, whereas the tram is door to door and far quicker than say road. And if you don’t believe people would travel with luggage on a tram just watch the number transferring to/from the tram at E Croydon for connecting rail services (some to Gatwick A). 

Edited Wednesday at 19:37 by MidlandRed