HS2

[DK123GWR]

 

4 hours ago, APOLLO said:

 

I wonder where the money will come from, another cull of Pensioners probably.

 

The plan shows a return loop underneath the station, why bother stopping at all ?, that will save time and money !!!!.

 

What will they will name the tunneling Machine, Rachael or Angela?

 

 

Brit15

Changing the fiscal rules seems to be very much on the table. Currently, the primary rule requires the debt to GDP ratio to be on course to fall between the fourth and fifth years of a forecast period. Under these rules, if you wanted to commit to an infrastructure project that required a lot of spending in five years, you would need a plan to raise more tax or cut another area of spending for that year. It is likely that any change to the fiscal rules would make it easier to borrow for investment, so that you could increase total investment without cuts to current spending (on wages, benefits, pensions, potholes, etc.). This would most likely be acheived by adopting a measure of debt which also reflects the value of capital assets owned by the government.

 

Fiscal rules are set by the government for themselves to follow and are in one sense entirely arbitrary, with no enforcement mechanism. In theory, they could simply be abolished or disregarded. However, they are one of the mechanisms which governments use to give investors confidence in the long term sustainability of their economic plans. The last person to ignore fiscal rules was Liz Truss, whose policies led to entirely predictable consequences. For another example, there are some economists who argue that the most important impact of the 1976 IMF bailout was not allowing the UK access to credit (it only ever withdrew half the loan and paid it back within three years) but that the strict conditions imposed by the IMF on the UK economic policy (which in this case were enforceable) convinced investors that inflation would fall, reviving confidence in Sterling.

 

Since most economists believe that borrowing to invest is sound practice, and there is near-universal agreement that UK investment has been too low for an extended period of time, the proposed changes are unlikely to lead to a confidence crisis. The main disadvantage is that it may lead to higher volatility in debt levels in the long run as valuing assets is inherently difficult, so large revisions are possible.

[Arun Sharma]

2 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

And they certainly don't use white periods on the high speed lines.  All the maintenance is done at night.  They even have special vehicles to check the lines each morning called Brooms.  A high speed single car DMU. 

 

Jamie

Apropos nothing whatsoever, can you actually have a single car Diesel Multiple Unit

[jamie92208]

48 minutes ago, Arun Sharma said:

Apropos nothing whatsoever, can you actually have a single car Diesel Multiple Unit

definitely a moot point however there are two of them based near me so presumably they can be run in multiple.   Here is one of them at the maintenance base for the Tours to Bordeaux  line at Villognon about half way between the beginning and end.

I am told that there use saves using a full TGV set for the track inspection each morning.  I wonder if HS2 will have a couple based at Calvert.

 

Jamie

[Ron Ron Ron]

Apparently, the maximum attainable speed of a BROOM (Bimotor Rapid Opening and Observation Maintenance ....Mmmmm? doesn't sound very French....), on an LGV with TVM armed,  is 100 mph (160 kph).

On non-LGV line, with unarmed TVM, the max speed allowed is 50 mph (80 kph).

 

Maybe with a faster HS line, HS2 should order a Super BROOM.

I hear the Nimbus 2000 is fairly quick.

 

 

http://herge.eklablog.com/draisine-broom-lvg160-a158471764

 

 

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[jamie92208]

I'm sure that SOCOFER would build one for HS2 if asked.  I will hopefully be having a look outside their works next week.  Perhaps if they did go for the Nimbus JK Rowling might sponsor it.  The top speed is interesting.  SEA who manage that stretch of high speed line have about 100 miles of line either side of their base at Villognon 

So an hour each way each day.  I have once seen one on the classic line nearby.  There is a spur into the depot from Luxé used for ballast and rail deliveries. 

 

Jamie

[Michael Hodgson]

3 hours ago, Arun Sharma said:

Apropos nothing whatsoever, can you actually have a single car Diesel Multiple Unit

 

2 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

definitely a moot point however there are two of them based near me so presumably they can be run in multiple.  

 

 

Broom broom!

[Not Jeremy]

Sounds like great news to me, let's hope this is a new trend for politicians whereby they make welcome announcements and spend money on things that are worth spending money on.

 

As for where the money comes from? I'm not going to worry about it, there's plenty of it about one way or another in this privileged country of ours and sorting out the details of how etc is right up various Civil Servants' streets, I would have thought.

 

I am now looking forward to the next "good news" announcement, I mean to say, two in one lifetime must be a possibility at least!

[62613]

10 minutes ago, Not Jeremy said:

Sounds like great news to me, let's hope this is a new trend for politicians whereby they make welcome announcements and spend money on things that are worth spending money on.

 

As for where the money comes from? I'm not going to worry about it, there's plenty of it about one way or another in this privileged country of ours and sorting out the details of how etc is right up various Civil Servants' streets, I would have thought.

 

I am now looking forward to the next "good news" announcement, I mean to say, two in one lifetime must be a possibility at least!

Some financial expert came on Radio 4 a couple of weeks ago and said that UK banks have £3 trillion sitting around doing nothing; what adifference even a small fraction of that would make if those banks loaned it out for investment

[locoholic]

54 minutes ago, Not Jeremy said:

As for where the money comes from? I'm not going to worry about it, there's plenty of it about one way or another in this privileged country of ours and sorting out the details of how etc is right up various Civil Servants' streets, I would have thought.

The government has denied that the state old age pension will be means tested, so that's certain to be introduced!

[rockershovel]

9 hours ago, 62613 said:

Some financial expert came on Radio 4 a couple of weeks ago and said that UK banks have £3 trillion sitting around doing nothing; what adifference even a small fraction of that would make if those banks loaned it out for investment

The problem is, finding something worth investing in. 

[rodent279]

28 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

The problem is, finding something worth investing in. 

And getting the rate of return that the banks want.

[locoholic]

Much discussion this morning's media of a Labour plan for HS2 Phase 2 "lite" - a lower-spec (and 40% cheaper) line from Birmingham to Manchester. Apparently, addressing capacity issues further up the WCML doesn't require the fastest trains in Europe after all!

 

When the GWR identified bottlenecks at Westbury and Frome, it didn't build a whole new line from Paddington to Plymouth! Maybe that approach could be applied to Colwich, Stafford, the Welwyn viaduct, Morpeth, etc? Break the problem down into manageable chunks, since the UK rail industry has shown itself to be incapable of delivering huge projects on time and on budget?

[locoholic]

1 hour ago, rodent279 said:

And getting the rate of return that the banks want.

Getting a rate of return that means my pension scheme can afford to pay my pension. There's no pot of free money for infrastructure - the money comes from wealth creation, something that has become more or less impossible in the UK.

[Compound2632]

5 minutes ago, locoholic said:

wealth creation, something that has become more or less impossible in the UK.

 

I'n not sure about that. There seem to be a number of extremely wealthy people about. Or is it that they've moved their money out of the country, like the true patriots they claim to be?

[chris p bacon]

Can we move away from the politics of pensions and back onto the engineering/project.

[david.hill64]

59 minutes ago, locoholic said:

Much discussion this morning's media of a Labour plan for HS2 Phase 2 "lite" - a lower-spec (and 40% cheaper) line from Birmingham to Manchester. Apparently, addressing capacity issues further up the WCML doesn't require the fastest trains in Europe after all!

 

Not easy to see where 40% cost savings will come from. Land acquisition costs and survey (and other report) costs will be the same. Cannot see that signalling, power supply, communications, SCADA, train supply and civil works costs will be much cheaper. 

[Michael Hodgson]

49 minutes ago, locoholic said:

 

When the GWR identified bottlenecks at Westbury and Frome, it didn't build a whole new line from Paddington to Plymouth! Maybe that approach could be applied to Colwich, Stafford, the Welwyn viaduct, Morpeth, etc? Break the problem down into manageable chunks, since the UK rail industry has shown itself to be incapable of delivering huge projects on time and on budget?

 

The problem with Digswell Viaduct is that there are some very wealthy people living in the area who use the Welwyn North station and who have friends in high places.  It wasn't possible to close the station to eliminate delays by having stoppers in the two track section.  It won't be easy to get permission to do anything there that looks ugly/damages amenity value.  They could bore out new tunnels parallel to Welwyn North and South tunels to reduce the length of the bottleneck, but they aren't going to employ brickies to widen the viaduct in keeping with the existing.

[Michael Hodgson]

4 minutes ago, david.hill64 said:

Not easy to see where 40% cost savings will come from. Land acquisition costs and survey (and other report) costs will be the same. Cannot see that signalling, power supply, communications, SCADA, train supply and civil works costs will be much cheaper. 

Go back to basics ....

https://signalbox.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/early.gif

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, david.hill64 said:

Not easy to see where 40% cost savings will come from. Land acquisition costs and survey (and other report) costs will be the same. Cannot see that signalling, power supply, communications, SCADA, train supply and civil works costs will be much cheaper. 

Not to mention the cost of redesigning the whole thing, including much of the civil engineering (bridges, viaducts etc,), going through a whole lot of new and costly “process” and the inevitable increase in costs (inflation, multiple reports and reviews, etc,) due to delay and dithering over the whole Phase 2 a/b debacle.

I’d be amazed if it doesn’t end up costing 40% more, not less, than Phase 2a.

 

 

.

Edited October 9 by Ron Ron Ron

[Michael Hodgson]

15 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Not to mention the cost of redesigning the whole thing, including much of the civil engineering (bridges, viaducts etc,), going through a whole lot of new and costly “process” and the inevitable increase in costs (inflation, multiple reports and reviews, etc,) due to delay and dithering over the whole Phase 2 a/b debacle.

I’d be amazed if it doesn’t end up costing 40% more, not less, than Phase 2a.

 

 

.

Yeah, that's more jobs for the boys 😀

[The Stationmaster]

9 minutes ago, Michael Hodgson said:

Yeah, that's more jobs for the boys consultants 😀

I've corrected it for you. (speaking as someone once involved in consultancy working on various new railway projects)

[Michael Hodgson]

3 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

I've corrected it for you. (speaking as someone once involved in consultancy working on various new railway projects)

Been there, done that - well not in the railway industry, but lack of relevant experience never stopped us bidding for (and sometimes getting) work in fields we weren't experts in 😄.   My overall boss was one of those who commuted from Welwyn North!

[The Stationmaster]

21 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

And they certainly don't use white periods on the high speed lines.  All the maintenance is done at night.  They even have special vehicles to check the lines each morning called Brooms.  A high speed single car DMU. 

 

Jamie

Very interesting to hear that they have apparently got rid of white periods on the LGVs - my constant questioning of their reasons for using such things probably more than occasionally irritated one or two (but not all) of my working colleagues in SNCF.   An even bigger miracle would be if they'v e finally understood how to most efficiently use their TGV fleet.

 

Their use of the morning 'sweeper' trains on LGVs has been going on for years - whether or not there is any overnight engineering work and seemed to be basically to establish if the railway saw still in one piece for safe train running.

Edited October 9 by The Stationmaster

[jamie92208]

4 hours ago, david.hill64 said:

Not easy to see where 40% cost savings will come from. Land acquisition costs and survey (and other report) costs will be the same. Cannot see that signalling, power supply, communications, SCADA, train supply and civil works costs will be much cheaper. 

I suspect some smoke and mirrors.  Going on here.  The land has mostly been bought.  The Parliamentary bill has been passed.  Therefore a lot of the consultancy fees will have been paid already.  Yes they can save up front costs on track and possibly signalling but I suspect that the 40% figure will include what has been spent already.  Perhaps I'm too cynical.  I also have a vague memory that  2a was going to be considerably cheaper per mile than phase 1 due to no tunnelling and cheaper land. 

 

Jamie 

Edited October 9 by jamie92208

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, jamie92208 said:

……I also have a vague memory that  2a was going to be considerably cheaper per mile than phase 1 due to no tunnelling and cheaper land. 

 

Vastly cheaper per mile.

 

Plus all the major land surveying, geology etc, has already been done.

Simply cancelling 2a and then reinstating, as was, with a resulting delay of years, would increase the cost without any changes to the original plan.

Reduced line speed may save a relatively small amount of money, but not building the remainder of the line, in whatever guise it’s presented, to UIC GC, will have wasted the vast amount of money already spent on building the longer and more difficult Phase 1 to the future proofed, larger gauge.

 

 

 

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