HS2

[jjb1970]

2 minutes ago, 2750Papyrus said:

It used to be said that one shouldn't throw good money after bad. 

 

Money spent so far cannot be recovered.  If the spend to completion in existing or modified form makes economic sense, go for it. 

 

If it takes a while to evaluate possible changes before making this assessment, perhaps we need to be patient.

 

The sunk cost fallacy on a grand scale.

 

I am not saying cancel HS2 and personally I want to see it built in full. At the same time ignoring isdues with a program which is in trouble and hoping it will all just come together and future governments are agreeable to this one signing a blank cheque on their behalf isn't sensible either.

 

I have done project recovery jobs and hated it because you need to be very thick skinned but I think HS2 needs someone who can get a grip of it.

 

[Pete the Elaner]

2 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

 

our politicians (and HM Treasury) seem to not understand that and clearly think the population can be hoodwinked into thinking they’ve saved us £50/£60bn today to spend this year which simply isn’t true.

 

Unfortunately there seem to be plenty out there who do fall for these cheap government tricks.

You don't have to look very hard to read "100bn is a waste just to save 10 minutes" to see how easily the general population are fooled.

 

My worry is this: Those of us on this forum have a little more knowledge about railways than the average person because it is an interest.

There are many things which the government deals with which are of less interest to me, so I know little about them. Who do I believe about those?

[APOLLO]

Shades of the old Manchester, Sheffield & Lincolnshire railway - The MS&L, "Money sunk and lost" - Later became The Great Central and built an uneconomic but grandly engineered line down to Londinium -- Deja Vu!!!!

 

Brit15

[martin_wynne]

Can someone explain to me where the money spent on HS2 actually ends up?

 

As far as I can see the state gets most of it back.

 

Many thousands of HS2 workers paying income tax, national insurance, VAT on a new fridge, car tax, fuel duty, council tax ... and buying stuff from firms who pay corporation tax, business rates, and pay wages to employees who are paying income tax, nat... ...

 

Buying masses of HS2 concrete and fencing from firms who pay corp... ...

 

Not paying social security benefits to workers not building HS2 or anything else ...

 

The same goes for building hospitals, repairing schools, and all the rest.

 

If you have someone capable of mixing concrete, how does it benefit the country to pay them to stay at home not mixing any concrete? When we need lots of mixed concrete?

 

What am I missing?

 

Martin.

[30368]

1 hour ago, Re6/6 said:

The current governmental chaos beggars belief.

 

What government? Things just drift along.

 

One suspects that the oversight of HS2 project by those that should be doing such things is as effective as that over the Furlough Scheme and the purchase (and storage) of Protective Gear during Covid.

Given that DB and the SNCF run trains here why not ask the SNCF to take over the project? They have some experience of High Speed rail links and seemingly do it much cheaper. 

 

Kind regards,

 

30368

[jjb1970]

19 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

My worry is this: Those of us on this forum have a little more knowledge about railways than the average person because it is an interest.

There are many things which the government deals with which are of less interest to me, so I know little about them. Who do I believe about those?

 

That's why I  stopped paying much attention to the news. When I started seeing stories which I was very familiar with it was eye opening to realise just how terrible most news reporting is. Some of it is no doubt down to genuine ignorance and failing to understand what is happening,  but a lot of it is deliberate pandering to the confirmation biases of their readers and viewers. If I extrapolate that to the overwhelming majority of stories I know nothing about then it begs the question of just what is happening in the world?

[4630]

22 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

 

What am I missing?

 

Martin.

 

You're missing absolutely nothing at all.

 

In very basic terms, your description is an illustration of the economic theory of the 'fiscal multiplier' and the 'circular flow of money'.

Edited October 3, 2023 by 4630
To correct a grammar howler.

[Bernard Lamb]

37 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

Can someone explain to me where the money spent on HS2 actually ends up?

 

As far as I can see the state gets most of it back.

 

Many thousands of HS2 workers paying income tax, national insurance, VAT on a new fridge, car tax, fuel duty, council tax ... and buying stuff from firms who pay corporation tax, business rates, and pay wages to employees who are paying income tax, nat... ...

 

Buying masses of HS2 concrete and fencing from firms who pay corp... ...

 

Not paying social security benefits to workers not building HS2 or anything else ...

 

The same goes for building hospitals, repairing schools, and all the rest.

 

If you have someone capable of mixing concrete, how does it benefit the country to pay them to stay at home not mixing any concrete? When we need lots of mixed concrete?

 

What am I missing?

 

Martin.

As I wrote yesterday. I would like to see a figure for the actual cost.

For as long as I have been around, governments have used different methods of expressing 'costs' dependent on what result they wanted.

Bernard

Bernard

[woodenhead]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

 

That's why I  stopped paying much attention to the news. When I started seeing stories which I was very familiar with it was eye opening to realise just how terrible most news reporting is. Some of it is no doubt down to genuine ignorance and failing to understand what is happening,  but a lot of it is deliberate pandering to the confirmation biases of their readers and viewers. If I extrapolate that to the overwhelming majority of stories I know nothing about then it begs the question of just what is happening in the world?

The problem with news organisations is that ultimately they need to be paid for, unless you have a bunch of people willing to pay you to report the truth no matter how unpalatable it is to your own beliefs then it will always be skewed.  The BBC is probably quite unique in it is paid to be unbiased, the Government may at times feel it is a left leaning organisation but it surely has a job to hold the Government to task where it is appropriate whilst also leaking stuff that the Government wants us to think about like HS2 later phases being cancelled.  I think generally that journalists who work for organisations like the BBC are going to be centrists or left leaning, rather like comedians - there doesn't appear to be much of a calling from the majority of the general populace for right wing comedy nor right wing news reporting.

 

An example arose this week with GB News which for the record I do not watch.  Two people were suspended after one made lewd comments about a left leaning journalist and the other did nothing to stop them or retract the remarks.  This on the face of it seems a correct thing, then another presenter was suspended because they made a public admission they supported one of the already suspended presenters and that GB News were pandering to regulators and the 'woke mob'.  I imagine that a big part of the decisions were the fact they would lose more advertising if the continued down the road it's presenters were going and ultimately end the channel if the regulators did not remove their licence first.

 

Interesting fact, Fox News managed to pull off a doozy of a deal that means it can say what it likes and not lose revenue, it managed to get itself included in all cable subscriptions in the US, you get it whether you watch it or not and it gets income from that subscription whether you like it or not.

Edited October 3, 2023 by woodenhead

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, Bernard Lamb said:

As I wrote yesterday. I would like to see a figure for the actual cost.

For as long as I have been around, governments have used different methods of expressing 'costs' dependent on what result they wanted.

Bernard

Bernard

They'll never do that and the next Government will do their own figures on their own preferred methodology to come up with a new plan or abandon the scheme altogether if they cannot find a way to make it work.

 

What we don't yet know is how bad the finances are, we don't fully understand what else is known that we do not know that is driving them to contemplate cancelling such a large infrastructure project given it will decimate support north of Birmingham and even impact voters in the Chilterns who still get the railway they cannot benefit from which they did not want and now see it as a white elephant in their living room.

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, martin_wynne said:

Can someone explain to me where the money spent on HS2 actually ends up?

 

As far as I can see the state gets most of it back.……….

 

 

………..What am I missing?

 

 

54 minutes ago, 4630 said:

 

You're missing absolutely nothing at all.

 

In very basic terms, your description is an illustration of the economic theory of the 'fiscal multiplier' and the 'circular flow of money'.

 

Except that there’s no such thing as perpetual motion in economics, just as there isn’t in physics.

There has to be some input to keep the wheels turning.

The desired input is growth and the creation of wealth.

You can also create money by just printing it, but that has to be done very carefully and sparingly.

Unfortunately, that’s something that’s been heavily overused by some of the world’s largest central banks, since 2008.

A temporary lifeline that desperate politicians won’t let go of, for fear of drowning, threatening to take us all down with them.

 

 

.

 

Hence the 

[martin_wynne]

6 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Except that there’s no such thing as perpetual motion in economics, just as there isn’t in physics.

There has to be some input to keep the wheels turning.

 

But how much input? It might not need much.

 

I'd be willing to chip in a fiver.

 

Martin.

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, martin_wynne said:

Can someone explain to me where the money spent on HS2 actually ends up?

 

As far as I can see the state gets most of it back.

 

Many thousands of HS2 workers paying income tax, national insurance, VAT on a new fridge, car tax, fuel duty, council tax ... and buying stuff from firms who pay corporation tax, business rates, and pay wages to employees who are paying income tax, nat... ...

 

Buying masses of HS2 concrete and fencing from firms who pay corp... ...

 

Not paying social security benefits to workers not building HS2 or anything else ...

 

The same goes for building hospitals, repairing schools, and all the rest.

 

If you have someone capable of mixing concrete, how does it benefit the country to pay them to stay at home not mixing any concrete? When we need lots of mixed concrete?

 

What am I missing?

 

Martin.

 

You are missing nothing. Quite the reverse, you are considering the 'bigger picture'.

Most companies & governments seem to break things down into sectors or departments & demand that they all economically justify their existence. Even those departments who provide a service to others have an internal charge.

 

So if money is cut from HS2, the government (& every party is the same to a degree) will be able to claim they have 'saved money' when what they have done is moved some spending from HS2 to pay unemployment benefit for the very same people; not just those actually working on the project, but for the suppliers & suppliers of the suppliers.

 

Why is it that railways are judged on their profits while roads are not? Apart from the small number of toll roads, all are paid from a central budget & people accept that we simply need them. We never hear about the M6 losing money each year.

[Dunsignalling]

Money is only "saved" by cancellation.

 

If the Birmingham - Manchester section is revived at some point, it will cost many times what economies might have been achieved by the current juggling act.

 

John

[woodenhead]

7 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Money is only "saved" by cancellation.

 

If the Birmingham - Manchester section is revived at some point, it will cost many times what economies might have been achieved by the current juggling act.

 

John

And if it is the same flavour of Government as now then they will sell it in some way that makes them look good, if it is the other party then they will be accused of inflating the cost and wasting taxpayers money.

 

But fundamentally the cost will have increased and the fares for using the railway will rise comensurately - at the end of the day those using it will pay for it through fares, how quickly they pay for it depends how high a fare those using it will stomach.  Building HS2 is based on borrowed money not taxation, cancellation just means they are borrowing less but without Euston and the northern extension it feels like an awful lot of people are going to be paying for something they won't be using because there is no way on earth they are going to pay this back quickly on just Old Oak to Birmingham fare payers.

[Ron Ron Ron]

11 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

.......Why is it that railways are judged on their profits while roads are not?

Apart from the small number of toll roads, all are paid from a central budget & people accept that we simply need them.

We never hear about the M6 losing money each year.

 

Except that the income from taxation of the use of roads makes an effective, giant profit.

Fuel duties, VAT on fuel, road fund licences, VAT on new vehicles, VAT on servicing costs and spare parts etc, all bring in an annual sum, multiple times the size of the money spent on maintaining and building new road infrastructure.

 

In comparison, rail is seen, arguably justifiable in purely financial terms, as a giant plug hole to pour money down.

 

 

.

[woodenhead]

7 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Except that the income from taxation of the use of roads makes an effective, giant profit.

Fuel duties, VAT on fuel, road fund licences, VAT on new vehicles, VAT on servicing costs and spare parts etc, all bring in an annual sum, multiple times the size of the money spent on maintaining and building new road infrastructure.

 

In comparison, rail is seen, arguably justifiable in purely financial terms, as a giant plug hole to pour money down.

 

 

.

And yet our roads are in an awful state whereas the rails are maintained to a high state.

 

So for all that taxation at a national level they starve the councils at a local level so that roads fall into disrepair, yet the railways have to be maintained to a very high standard (or I hope they do).  And at the national level rebuild safe motorways into unsafe environments.

 

It feels like they take all the taxation but rely on the fact that potholes are an insurance inconvenience to the driver rather than for all the tax I pay I at least I can expect a smooth road surface.

Edited October 3, 2023 by woodenhead

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

And yet our roads are in an awful state whereas the rails are maintained to a high state.

 

So for all that taxation at a national level they starve the councils at a local level so that roads fall into disrepair, yet the railways have to be maintained to a very high standard (or I hope they do).  And at the national level rebuild safe motorways into unsafe environments.

 

It feels like they take all the taxation but rely on the fact that potholes are an insurance inconvenience to the driver rather than for all the tax I pay I at least I can expect a smooth road surface.

 

That's because governments have been overspending in increasing amounts for a few decades.

They've become dependant on road and motoring taxation, along with other taxes, to prop up overall government finances.

 

Then came Covid and the negative effects on western economies caused by the Ukraine war.

Our own government spent a fortune on furlough, support for businesses and other Covid related expenditure, followed by the vast cost of support given to consumers for their energy bills.

Yet the bills and the cost of debt continue to grow and stack up.

 

 

 

.

[woodenhead]

I see the talk is about a 'Charles' line from Liverpool to Hull instead of HS2, is this what you call deflection.

 

It should not be either or, it should be both as promised and needed.

 

And we are not 'Charlies'

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 hours ago, APOLLO said:

 

Scapegoat Newt !!!

 

 

Brit15

 

 

Are you suggesting the Lizard people are behind this chaos?

 

The conniving so and so's......

 

.

[BachelorBoy]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Except that the income from taxation of the use of roads makes an effective, giant profit.

Fuel duties, VAT on fuel,

.

 

A big future problem that's rarely talked about: how will governments replace the money they make from fuel tax now when all vehicles are electric?

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

Just now, BachelorBoy said:

 

A big future problem that's rarely talked about: how will governments replace the money they make from fuel tax now when all vehicles are electric?

 

 

 

It's being talked about a lot in government and treasury circles.

 

We've discussed it on here a few times too.

See the thread in the "Wheeltappers" section.

 

 

.

[APOLLO]

3 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 

Are you suggesting the Lizard people are behind this chaos?

 

The conniving so and so's.....

 

 

Brit15 - Flies for tea !!

[Ron Ron Ron]

......and the beat goes on.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[APOLLO]

3 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

It's being talked about a lot in government and treasury circles.

 

We've discussed it on here a few times too.

See the thread in the "Wheeltappers" section.

 

Quite easy, pay per mile using the millions of cameras, black boxes etc. Tech is up to the job and in Greater London etc, ready to go. Different rates for different vehicles, time of day, amount of congestion, colour of underpants etc !!

 

Brit15

Edited October 3, 2023 by APOLLO