Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[jjb1970]

Most people I know (including myself I hasten to add) are placing themselves in far greater risk of reduced life span or morbidity as a result of their own lifestyle choices than from this virus. For example, dietary choices (I don't smoke, vape or drink alcohol, but I do enjoy rich foods), smoking, vaping, lack or exercise, alcohol intake, substance use etc. There is a semi-regular rant among modellers about safety restrictions on the use of leaded solder yet controls on lead are probably more justified than some of the potential responses to coronavirus. Statistics don't mean much unless you understand the basis of the conditions analysed, for example coronavirus fatalities for the old and infirm really need to be considered in the context of mortality rates for those groups without the coronavirus (i.e. what is the mortality/death rate for the worst affected groups without coronavirus).

[AY Mod]

2 hours ago, Gibbo675 said:

What a conspiracy nut job I really am !!!

 

Yeah, well; pack it in. Keep the topic to sensible narrative which may assist people rather than it disappearing up its rear-end with speculative irrelevance.

[woodenhead]

1 hour ago, Captain Kernow said:

 

The virus can't yet jump up from a surface, can it?!

 

I know that worried me too - but maybe because other people will touch that spot spreading the infection within the area etc.

 

I think the message is, to maintain the health of the nation we all need to do our bit and keep our hands clean, not put them in our mouths if we haven't clean them first, keep sneezes and coughs contained and be mindful around those with less resilient immune systems.

[Gibbo675]

38 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Yeah, well; pack it in. Keep the topic to sensible narrative which may assist people rather than it disappearing up its rear-end with speculative irrelevance.

My dear Mr York,

 

I find it most interesting that Jonny777's post containing the link below disappeared, it was the reply to my original post , I re-post the very same link, should you care to read it, so that you may have an understanding of the actual facts of the matter as pertain to the real world.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bond-debate-inside-look-world-bank-coronavirus-relief-investment-2020-2-1028906657?op=1

 

As for assistance in matters Covid 19 you may wish to look up the US army's field manual about infection control and biological agents that I posted a while back.

 

Gibbo.

 

[AY Mod]

19 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

may have an understanding of the actual facts

 

Stick to facts then and pack in the conspiracy theories or you'll have a spell of admin-administered isolation.

[friscopete]

My only advice is to turn yer amp up to 11 and rock ....

[APOLLO]

Everywhere seems to be out of hand sanitising gel. Here are interesting articles on how to make your own - using Vodka !!

 

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/1250203/Hand-sanitiser-shortage-How-to-make-hand-sanitiser-effective-coronavirus

 

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/wellness/g20706539/how-to-make-a-natural-hand-sanitizer/

 

https://www.devonlive.com/news/uk-world-news/how-make-your-hand-sanitiser-3908639

 

Anyway washing your hands regularly certainly won't do any harm. I have started to wash my mits more often and certainly before touching food. Called in Tesco & Aldi (Wigan) today - everything / everyone seems as usual - no empty shelves / panic buyers etc. 

 

I plan to cut down on going out when not necessary etc - but my Mrs works in a large food preparation factory and daughter travels everyday to Liverpool Uni by train - studying a Masters in Biology - at least she finds all this "very interesting" !!!

 

Good luck and stay safe everyone.

 

Brit15

[ejstubbs]

2 hours ago, jonny777 said:

A lot of fuss has been made over washing hands after visiting the toilet (which ought to be a routine anyway - but sadly many people just don't bother) but when we think about it there are a lot of surfaces such as bus/train grab handles, shop door handles, supermarket trolley handles, etc. etc., where we can have no idea of who might have been in contact with them before we touch them. 

 

One of the main reasons why people are encouraged to wash their hands after* visiting the toilet is because that's where hand washing facilities generally are.  They tend not to be found at bus stops, supermarket trolley parks and so on.  It's not so much that you have to wash your hands every time they come in to contact with a potentially contaminated surface, but doing so after one of the most regularly occurring activities during which they are most likely to get contaminated provides a good level of basic 'background' hygiene**.

 

Obviously it makes sense to seek out washing facilities if you knowingly come in to contact something which is very likely to be significantly contaminated e.g. if you take a tumble and push against the ground with your hands in order to get yourself upright again.

 

* Unless your hands are actually grimy e.g. with oil, washing your hands before visiting the toilet rather defeats the exercise.

 

** With the possible exception of toilets where the access door opens inwards, so you have to pull on the handle when you leave.  These provide a great place for the non-hand-washers to leave contaminants for the benefit of those who have just washed their hands.  (There is a view that no shared-use toilet should have doors that open inwards, for this very reason.)

[Captain Kernow]

40 minutes ago, ejstubbs said:

** With the possible exception of toilets where the access door opens inwards, so you have to pull on the handle when you leave.  These provide a great place for the non-hand-washers to leave contaminants for the benefit of those who have just washed their hands.  (There is a view that no shared-use toilet should have doors that open inwards, for this very reason.)

This has got me wondering how long it will be, before not washing your hands after using a public toilet will become as strong a social taboo as, say, smoking in a non-smoking environment?

 

I was once on a cross-channel ferry, with a couple of reprobates from this forum, en-route to exhibit the layout of one of said reprobates in Holland, when I had occasion to use the lavatory located next to the restaurant. In walks someone dressed in a chef's outfit, has a pee and walks straight out again, without washing his hands! Needless to say, the first thing I did after washing my own hands (and opening the door without directly touching the handle) was to report this occurrence to the first person wearing a lot of gold braid on their uniform that I could find!

 

[TheSignalEngineer]

5 hours ago, woodenhead said:

So you think this is a stitch up between pharma giants and the Chinese military - that's not cynicism that's paranoia 

There's nothing like a good conspiracy theory when you've got bad news to bury. Come to think of it now would be a good time to publish the report into ________.(add your own favourite political topic).

[tomparryharry]

I popped over to see 'Madge', whom, as you know, looks after the fruit & veg at Tesco. 

 

"What do you think of this Coronavirus situation, Madge?"

 

"Go over to the fishmonger, buy yourself a Halibut, cut it, gut it, and smear its guts all over your skin, hands & clothes."

 

"Will it work?" I asked...

 

"Well, no bu&&er is going to come near you with that lot on", came the reply.....

 

Kapitan Birds-High.

[TheSignalEngineer]

49 minutes ago, ejstubbs said:

Unless your hands are actually grimy e.g. with oil, washing your hands before visiting the toilet rather defeats the exercise.

Wasn't that an old distinction between the fitter and the foreman? The foreman washed his hands after using the toilet, the fitter did it before.

[Andy Hayter]

3 hours ago, Captain Kernow said:

 

 

I'm just not clear how infected people, who still feel completely fine, transmit the disease onwards. 

 

 

 

It is really quite easy.  Here is just one for instance of how it could happen:

 

Symptomless victim goes to MacDonalds and buys a nice juicy burger.  Having finished and being very fastidious he wipes his mouth with the tissue serviette provided.  The grease penetrates the thickness of the tissue and the slightest smear loaded with virus touches his thumb and forefinger.  Our victim then goes to the supermarket and takes a trolley from the trolley park and inadvertently smears virus over the handle ready for the next customer to become infected.  It could equally be a door handle, hand rail etc..

 

Every time you speak you will also exhale fine droplets - anyone close (ie someone listening) could then become infected.

[Phil Parker]

Just to return to reality for a moment, I've had a quick chat with our exhibitions team today about Ally Pally. At present, the assumption is that the show will be business as usual.

 

They are currently talking to the venue who are making preparations, expect to see an awful lot of hand sanitisers around the place for a start as well as other precautions. Let's face it, all exhibition venues have an interest in doing all they can lest the government decide that they should be shut down for 9 months or so.

 

I understand that there will be a big meeting this week to take into account current government advice along with that of the venue. I've asked for an update for RMweb and this will be provided. Please don't bombard them, or me, with questions until then as I don't know any more.

 

Obviously this is an ongoing situation and things may yet change again, but that's where we are right now.

[mdvle]

4 hours ago, Captain Kernow said:

I'm just not clear how infected people, who still feel completely fine, transmit the disease onwards. It must clearly involve touching surfaces that other (non infected) people touch, but how much of a risk is the air that they exhale out? I've not seen that explicitly answered anywhere (unless the answer has been hiding in plain sight from me!).

 

No idea how accurate, but news reports have indicated that a virus (whether Covid-19 or even the flu/cold) can remain suspended in the air for 10 minutes or so, ready for the next people passing through to either breathe in or perhaps have attach to their skin.  And cough/sneeze can transmit droplets several metres.

 

As for the question about people with no symptoms, I believe so far it is only a claim out of China that people without symptoms transmit the disease - so not saying it isn't happening, but also note it is not proven yet.

 

[Oldddudders]

6 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

No idea how accurate, but news reports have indicated that a virus (whether Covid-19 or even the flu/cold) can remain suspended in the air for 10 minutes or so, ready for the next people passing through to either breathe in or perhaps have attach to their skin.  And cough/sneeze can transmit droplets several metres.

 

As for the question about people with no symptoms, I believe so far it is only a claim out of China that people without symptoms transmit the disease - so not saying it isn't happening, but also note it is not proven yet.

 

I had always understood that we are infectious with the common cold - also a virus of the same strain, ISTR - before we are aware of symptoms. And plenty of people carry all sorts of infections without ever suffering themselves. I think MRSA is among them, and Streptococcus another. 

[robmcg]

Personally I think and hope that covid19 is no worse than a cold or influenza virus...   at least world-wide 400,000 die each year from 'flu or secondary causes, 3rd world has many many smokers and  poor health, western world has older people who are obese, diabetic, and/or are simply old. And that's not including the common cold.

 

Media storm, scare-mongering. In my humble opinion.

 

I mean, they have tested the Pope forcrissake... 

 

Terrible economic effects  are what worries me.

[Ravenser]

4 hours ago, woodenhead said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

 

My colleague who's partner is a nurse mentioned to me 'within 2 metres of an infected surface for 15 minutes' 

 

That has implications.

 

Clearly being sat next to, or near, someone in an auditorium - a cinema or theatre or a sports stadium - for 2-3 hours is going to spread the virus. Similarly the virus has spread through a South Korean sect - sitting next to someone in a pew for 60-90 minutes will do the job too. 

 

I'm less clear about the health implications of model railway exhibitions. 15 minutes viewing a layout is certainly possible. And there's normally a crowd at the barrier. Yes people circulate, but there is a potential risk of infection if you linger. Layout operators could be exposed to a lot of people - and one infected operator could likewise come in contact with a lot of visitors.

 

In France , they've temporarily banned indoor events with an attendance of over 5000 people. Big events - the Geneva Motor Show , the Leipzig Book Fair - are already being cancelled. There are probably half a dozen British model railway exhibitions that get gates of 5000+ on at least 1 day, and those are the shows that get visitors travelling from all over the country. Will York , in 5 weeks' time, be allowed to go ahead?? Will Warley happen this year?

 

Then there are the medium- sized events - what I would call "regional shows" - 2 day events with 25-30 layouts, gates in the 2000-3000 bracket, and the vast majority of attendees from within 30 miles. For the moment, while the virus is contained and there are only isolated cases , those look safe . But in a full-blown epidemic, I'm sure they would be halted. For several  months - perhaps up to 6 months.

 

The small local shows would probably not be seen as a great risk, unless there was a major outbreak locally, when they would doubtless not go ahead. But in a worst-case scenario that could be a lot of the country for a couple of months.

 

Do exhibition organisers' insurance policies cover cancellations because of an epidemic? What are the implications for the club scene if a lot of clubs lose their show, and are deprived of their usual exhibition income? 

 

Potentially we could see the exhibition circuit shut down for perhaps 6 months. That has implications for traders , and all those in the hobby for whom going to exhibitions is a large part of the hobby. It could be that 2020 becomes the year of modelling at home, with online forums and sites perforce replacing physical social contact at the club or at shows

 

To answer Captain Kernow's query, as the virus infects the lungs, and coughs are a symptom, I assume it is spread in fine droplets breathed out. And potentially these can infect surfaces and be picked up on the hands . Hence the advice to wash your hands vigourously - and to avoid touching your mouth , nose and eyes (as access routes for the virus) . It may be that the main effect of face masks is that they physically prevent you touching your mouth and nose with fingers carrying the virus

[Gibbo675]

2 minutes ago, robmcg said:

Personally I think and hope that covid19 is no worse than a cold or influenza virus...   at least world-wide 400,000 die each year from 'flu or secondary causes, 3rd world has many many smokers and  poor health, western world has older people who are obese, diabetic, and/or are simply old. And that's not including the common cold.

 

Media storm, scare-mongering. In my humble opinion.

 

I mean, they have tested the Pope forcrissake... 

 

Terrible economic effects  are what worries me.

Hi Rob,

 

You are quite right with what you say, especially with regard the possible, even likely economic consequences.

 

I would have thought that a good diet with plenty of vitamin C bolstered with Birch bark and Chaga mushroom extract would be highly beneficial in most cases.

 

I read an interesting report on brass door handles being more effective than hand sanitiser, especially the alcohol based ones which dry and crack the skin with over use leading to an further route to infection.

 

Gibbo.

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, Ravenser said:

In France , they've temporarily banned indoor events with an attendance of over 5000 people

 

A targeted limit in a small area north of Paris where there is a hotspot.

[Chamby]

1 hour ago, Ravenser said:

 

Potentially we could see the exhibition circuit shut down for perhaps 6 months. That has implications for traders , and all those in the hobby for whom going to exhibitions is a large part of the hobby. It could be that 2020 becomes the year of modelling at home, with online forums and sites perforce replacing physical social contact at the club or at shows

 

 

In an epidemic scenario, exhibitions just won’t be viable.  People will naturally want to avoid gatherings of any sort, be they an exhibition, club night or even public spaces.  There’s just no point in having any sort of meeting or event if people just won’t turn up.  There are many people currently self-isolating who have not even had contact with a suspected case, let alone a confirmed one.  

 

A self-preservation mindset is already kicking in with this bug.  

[BobM]

Hi

Just adding an observation on an earlier comment.....there are many older building, that do indeed have copper or brass door finger plates and knobs / handles for the very reason that in areas of 'high public traffic', infections / transfers were deterred through their 'antiseptic' properties / usage, much as in the way notices banning of 'spitting' on public transport and in the street were seen deterring the spread and transfer of TB?

Makes me mad to see folks (of all ages) frequently spitting in the street these days without a care for anyone but themselves, this is a timely and serious wake up call to be heeded?

 

Regards always, keep safe folks...

Bob

Edited March 3, 2020 by BobM

[PenrithBeacon]

My son has just been diagnosed with this. Seems he caught it at a sales event his employer organised last weekend

Now he's locked up in a small house with wife and two kids of three and one. Great.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, robmcg said:

Personally I think and hope that covid19 is no worse than a cold or influenza virus...

Media storm, scare-mongering. In my humble opinion.

 

It's early, we are still learning, the numbers are unreliable and will be revised, etc.

 

But at the moment the WHO is claiming Covid-19 has a fatality rate of between 2% to 3.4%, compared to about 1% for the flu.

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

A twist to the unfolding story, is that the virus is now being reimported back to China from people travelling there from Italy and Iran.

The Chinese authorities announced today that another 7 people have been tested positive and put in to quarantine, after arriving in China from Italy.

This adds to another infected person who travelled to China from Italy last week.

An unquantified “several cases” have entered China from Iran.

 

 

.