Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Oldddudders]

32 minutes ago, robert17649 said:

Living in Cornwall  , which at the moment has few cases,I find myself wishing that the second homers and potential  isolation holidaymakers would stay away, Our hospitals can only just cope with the standing populations needs

Rural France feels your pain. Parisians with second homes are seldom popular in the countryside, but those fleeing their city are now assumed to be bringing their plague with them. I suspect this is why Bretagne has nearly twice as many confirmed cases as my Region, Pays de la Loire, which is much closer to Paris. At half-term, which is a fortnight in France, Parisian families went to fashionable Bretagne, and a minority arrived infected. My Region has 190 cases, the lowest of any in mainland France, but numbers are growing. 

[Nearholmer]

50 minutes ago, robert17649 said:

The problem is simple really.If you only test people admitted to hospital,you can have no idea as to the number of actual cases and therefore no idea as to the recovery rate.

Yes and no.

 

Any estimate of the overall recovery rate will be an approximation, but you can see two things:

 

- recovery:fatality ratio for those who are admitted to hospital; and, 

 

- population-wide net difference to annual fatality rate.

 

Neither of those figures is visible during the event, but both are afterwards after.

 

And, if you know enough about typical fatality and recovery times, you can take a reasonable punt at projecting forward recovery:fatality ratio of hospital cases once there are a few weeks data.

 

 

[Crisis Rail]

13 hours ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Boris has just outlawed the last bastion of fun we had.  Pubs, cafes, restaurants to not open tonight and to stay closed except for takeaway (and, presumably, delivery since he seems keen on us having stuff delivered).  Cinemas, clubs and theatres to close.  

 

The first social unrest within my sphere of influence occurred today.  A gang of around 20 late-teens, some apparently the worse for alcohol already, piled off a train at around 9am and made a thorough nuisance of themselves.  Kicking pigeons, vandalising vending machines, swearing, spitting, tussling with each other (I wouldn't call it fighting - it wasn't really aggressive) and then playing football through the station subway.  They went on their way only to return a half-hour later perhaps having found nothing of interest to do.  And the performance was repeated whilst they awaited the train back to where they came from.  

 

Of course there are no police around when they might be needed.  And I wasn't about to tackle them single-handed.  You can boost their numbers all you like but they are no help if they're not there.  Result?  Twenty or so bored "yoof" roaming the rail network, upsetting and perhaps threatening other passengers, totally disregarding any advice to stay apart and only make essential trips.  And two broken vending machines.  I'm sure the pigeon population will eventually recover from a couple of losses though.  

 

Unsure of where you live -  but most probably a lot nicer than up here  -  it sounds just like a normal Northern Town Friday evening

[Giles]

Due to the irrational and selfish panic buying, we have been unable to buy toilet paper for two weeks now. We still have eight rolls left (from our normal, pre-virus shopping - we haven't 'panic-bought' anything!). On the grounds that such stupidity likely to continue though, I have bought on Amazon a simple Bidet kit to adapt out toilet, which takes about 15 minutes to install  - and very effective it is too....! Ultimately, this means we are not dependant on toilet paper, or on a substitute. One of my remaining worries is that one of out neighbours may start flushing wipes or kitchen towels and block the sewers regardless - and there's not much I can do about that......

I hope everyone is aware of the need to preserve their drains in working order.........

 

On another note, I do wonder if we may be in for official Rationing - as a society, we are demonstrating that we can't be trusted to buy sensibly.

[Joseph_Pestell]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

Rural France feels your pain. Parisians with second homes are seldom popular in the countryside, but those fleeing their city are now assumed to be bringing their plague with them. I suspect this is why Bretagne has nearly twice as many confirmed cases as my Region, Pays de la Loire, which is much closer to Paris. At half-term, which is a fortnight in France, Parisian families went to fashionable Bretagne, and a minority arrived infected. My Region has 190 cases, the lowest of any in mainland France, but numbers are growing. 

 

I have to admit that I would much rather be sitting this out in my comfortable French second home. Centre of the village with a close-knit community of people that I have known for 45 years. A good village shop just across the road. Nice walks through the vineyards in decent weather.

I hardly know anybody here and I am living in the middle of a building site with no proper kitchen facilities.

[Nearholmer]

25 minutes ago, Giles said:

On another note, I do wonder if we may be in for official Rationing - as a society, we are demonstrating that we can't be trusted to buy sensibly.

The sooner the better.
 

We barely stocked at all (4kg of flour and two packets of yeast!), because we didn’t expect to SI and have very easy access to shops (I usually buy bread, milk, fruit, veg, meat/fish every second day).

 

Now, nobody can get butter/Marge to drop off for us, ‘cos the hoarders took it all.

 

Probably just a short-term supply blip, but it is b annoying that even such blips are being caused for absolutely no good reason.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Joseph_Pestell]

Pretty grim reports on TV (Sky) this morning from Cremona, Italy.

 

Nostalgic for me as I have happy memories of Cremona from my visit in 1975 chasing the last of FS steam. Both the depot staff and other people we met in the town were wonderfully friendly. I send them my best wishes.

[Liam]

What I have noticed when the tweets come out from the Department of Health & Social Care announcing the number of cases as of 9am that day is that the daily increase number (the number of new cases reported in a day) appears to have levelled. If the number of new cases does not increase, then while they may remain level for a while let’s hope it’s not too long before they decrease. That said, it’s probably too early to make any strong judgement. Various graphs are uploaded by people on Twitter who use the info from DfH&SC. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1241058983336706050

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by SVRlad

[Bernard Lamb]

30 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

The sooner the better.
 

We barely stocked at all (4kg of flour and two packets of yeast!), 

Agreed.

You got bread flour!

Keep quiet about that or you could be burgled.

It his rather rare in my part of the world, none has been seen any in any shop this week.

Bernard

[black and decker boy]

The U.K. isn’t short of toilet roll, the supply chain has it stock and are still manufacturing (my wife until recently worked for Essity and is Still in contact with friends there).

 

what you have to bear in mind is that toilet roll is high volume, low margin. When you have maybe 1 HGV delivery to a store per day, do you fill it with more non live giving toilet roll or more test fruit, veg, meat etc?

 

stock levels will recover over time.

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Giles said:

On another note, I do wonder if we may be in for official Rationing - as a society, we are demonstrating that we can't be trusted to buy sensibly.

 

Really does make the eyes roll though when we can end up in that situation when there's been no change on the supply side.

[Ron Ron Ron]

57 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Pretty grim reports on TV (Sky) this morning from Cremona, Italy.

 

 

If that's the report from inside the hospital, then it is very grim.

There was a similar report from inside one of Bergamo's hospitals a couple of days ago.

Harrowing scenes.

 

My sister, who lives very near Bergamo, has had an irritating cough for more than a week now.

No fever, aches or pains or any other symptoms.

She rang the emergency contact number and was advised that if it was only a cough and had not got any worst in a week, then it wasn't likely to be the Coronavirus, but to take the usual precautions.

Yesterday she became a little more worried as the cough had become more irritating, although not persistent and she was feeling drained of energy.

Another call to the virus emergency number. 

She has been told that her symptoms make it very unlikely that she has this virus, but that she should self-isolate for 7 days, as her immune system will be depleted, putting her at greater risk.

Hopefully it's just a "regular" bug.

 

 

.

 

[boxbrownie]

11 hours ago, LBRJ said:

I dont think you are scaremongering in the least - Some reading and  some rational"deduction"* lead me to think the worst possible outcome is potentially  far worse than is being said.

But there is no need to scare peopled just yet.....

 

* I have a habit of having a beer etc next door to one of the finest medical schools in the country - so not all I hear is rubbish

Exactly, no need to scare anyone yet, but it will be needed for those numpties who still complain that “they’ve shut my pub for no reason” or “a football match is hurting nobody”.......you see where I am going here? 

 

Go for a walk, enjoy the fresh air (even fresher now, silver lining and all that) observe the two metre guidance and when you get home wash those hands properly, keep you and your family safe.

 

And for those that live in high rise flats, don’t use the lift.....seriously.

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

Good news form the south of France in which a peer reviewed study of forty patients have been cured of the Corona virus using Hydroxychloroquine.

 

Gibbo.

[AY Mod]

8 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Folks,

 

Good news form the south of France in which a peer reviewed study of forty patients have been cured of the Corona virus using Hydroxychloroquine.

 

Gibbo.

 

I have read similar and also seen Trump's incorrect statement on FDA approval but can you provide a link to this please? From what I have read I don't know whether it's a preventative or a treatment possibility. 

[black and decker boy]

As that’s one of the older anti-Malaria drugs, what are the side effects? Was it one of the psychotic ones that sent you a bit nutty?

 

still better Than dead clearly and if it allows normality faster then bring it on.

[JeremyC]

12 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

You're trying to make sense of data and even seeking challenges to it so there's no problem. A long way from fatuous and delusional statements which, as an attitude, if translated into real-world (in)actions risks exacerbating the problem.

 

It's now evident that every single person needs to do every single thing they can to break the chain reaction. Sticking a head in the sand does not give immunity.

I totally agree, but is it surprising that some people are making 'fatuous and delusional statements' and refusing to believe anything that differs from their personal viewpoint? For 5 or 6 years now in this country we have had high profile individuals, including members of government, and parts of the press continually degenerating experts with statements like 'people are fed up with experts'. Now these tactics have come back to haunt us.

Edited March 21, 2020 by JeremyC

[Downendian]

28 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

I have read similar and also seen Trump's incorrect statement on FDA approval but can you provide a link to this please? From what I have read I don't know whether it's a preventative or a treatment possibility. 

Not the South of France, but I'm reading it now.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

neil 

[Giles]

2 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

The U.K. isn’t short of toilet roll, the supply chain has it stock and are still manufacturing (my wife until recently worked for Essity and is Still in contact with friends there).

 

what you have to bear in mind is that toilet roll is high volume, low margin. When you have maybe 1 HGV delivery to a store per day, do you fill it with more non live giving toilet roll or more test fruit, veg, meat etc?

 

stock levels will recover over time.

 

 

I know.... but whilst there are idiots buying it all by bulk as soon as it hits the shelves,  I still can't buy any! Hence alternative approaches.....

[John Tomlinson]

5 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Yes and no.

 

Any estimate of the overall recovery rate will be an approximation, but you can see two things:

 

- recovery:fatality ratio for those who are admitted to hospital; and, 

 

- population-wide net difference to annual fatality rate.

 

Neither of those figures is visible during the event, but both are afterwards after.

 

And, if you know enough about typical fatality and recovery times, you can take a reasonable punt at projecting forward recovery:fatality ratio of hospital cases once there are a few weeks data.

 

 

Going back to your original question and the graph, Andy Hayter's comment about recovery rates being slower than death rates to me implies that you should perhaps be comparing the recovery rate at a date with the death rate around three weeks earlier - a broadbrush assumption I know. The recovery rate then looks far more impressive in comparison.

 

In a similar mathematical vein there's a piece on the BBC website today about the compilation of figures and definitions, particularly in respect of "normal" flu. The 8,000 deaths from the latter quoted by Vallance are in addition to regular deaths each year from other causes (these total around 500,000 a year in the UK). The Covid-19 numbers projected by Imperial on various outcomes appear to be circumstances in which the new virus is contributory, but in an undetermined number of these cases those involved are likely to have died of their existing problems anyway. So to say, for example, that modest mitigation methods would still result in 250,000 deaths is somewhat misleading taken at face value.

 

I think the answer to this is probably, as you say, that we'll only really know after this is over, or nearly so, and what we really need to know as well is the undetected infection and recovery rate to take a fully balanced view.

 

John.

[jjb1970]

I think people should take a step back and consider what this thread indicates about where we are.

 

Torper was locked out of the thread for voicing an opinion which whether or not people agreed with it was offered in a reasonable manner and I suspect reflected the views of others. Was it stupid? That is perhaps a matter of opinion but if it was it was certainly no more stupid than many other posts in this thread that have passed without comment and recieved plenty of likes. Personally I support moderation where people are aggressive or promoting ideas that are offensive but if not being part of a group and offering a minority opinion or being stupid (which tends to be a subjective opinion) are in themselves reasons to be locked out or for people to ask for moderator intervention I find that disturbing.

 

Gibbo seems to have rocked the boat and been singled out by some. Do I agree with all he says? No, but again he has not been aggressive and his views are no more unsubstantiated than a lot of others which seem to be going by without being questioned. I am seeing a lot of scare mongering which is just adding to people's anxiety just pass ( then people are whinging about panic buying and empty shelves). 

 

I am seeing a lot of talk about numbers, I have done mathematical modelling and a guilty hobby of mine is debunking modelled analysis in technical papers. If people are going to demand links to support opinions then they should perhaps also question stuff from all sources.

 

If not sharing the opinion of the majority is going to become unacceptable and people want to impose their own views on others then personally I find that deeply worrying.

[Reorte]

Purely on the subject of the numbers is More or Less on at the moment? They usually provide an interesting insight into statistics.

 

[John Tomlinson]

3 hours ago, Reorte said:

 

Really does make the eyes roll though when we can end up in that situation when there's been no change on the supply side.

And when put in those clear terms it shows just how daft it is.

 

Surely though, in a couple of weeks when things are still appearing on shelves and folk have nowhere left to put their toilet rolls, the situation should normalise. For essentials there appears so far to be no supply side impacts (as you say), there's no question about people being able to get enough food, although given the ups and downs they might not be able to get quite that special variant of whatever they so adore. (IMHO the extent of our foodstuff choices verges on the ridiculous, and must contribute to the obscene levels of wastage).

 

I do wonder if the situation is a bit different in London however? My local town is Stamford in south Lincolnshire, and yesterday mid morning I visited both Morrisons and Waitrose with neither restriction or delay. Both had a good selection of items (no toilet rolls or hand sanitiser though), and I covered our needs for the next week or so without much bother, the only exception being yeast for baking which neither store had, as it happens we have a decent reserve at home anyway.

 

I hope I'm not being unduly optimistic, but then human behaviour can so easily disappoint!

 

John.

[jcredfer]

2 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

I have read similar and also seen Trump's incorrect statement on FDA approval but can you provide a link to this please? From what I have read I don't know whether it's a preventative or a treatment possibility. 

 

This the BBC report.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/51980731  

Julian

[chris p bacon]

4 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

This the BBC report.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/51980731  

Julian

 

I remember taking Larium as an anti malarial drug. I didn't get Malaria but the spiders coming out of your eyes and the blood dripping from the ceiling were unsettling.....