Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[APOLLO]

Interesting speech by Boris & co. No comment other than I agree and will self isolate other than shopping. Lots to do around the house & on the "train set".

 

Son is in Africa working on an oil rig and is / was due to fly home Friday via Paris. The rig crew have been informed to suspend operations as no replacement crew will be sent out and the company will get them home, but they may have to wait awhile as airline routes are being closed by the hour globally. He asked if we had enough loo rolls (via the jungle drums !!). He says he's OK "There are plenty worse places in the world right now I could be stuck in" and at least he is being well looked after - hot & sunny too he said !!!

 

Regarding the airline industry - what a world changer this is / will be for them going forward. Their future at the moment is anyone's guess.

 

Brit15

 

 

[jonny777]

6 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

You say you are straw-grasping - and that is not a crime. We each need some hope in this horrid situation. 

 

 

Yes, I agree wholeheartedly. 

 

I console myself by thinking that despite the media hype, with a population of 70 million we are yet to reach 0.01% of the population infected even if we add on a few thousand to the official figures. 

[monkeysarefun]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

People need to consider that in general, older folk are retired. They can thus in theory self isolate easier as they don't have to go to work every day. The latter category includes not just NHS staff, but all those jobs needed to support them like school teachers / childminders, supermarket delivery drivers, train / bus drivers, utility companiy support staff, etc.

 

The NHS cannot function if staff levels are decimated by the virus (which can of course simply be staff having to self isolate for 2 weeks rather than having serious health complications themselves)

 

The Governments strategy is theretofore actually quite logical - try and encourage those young and fit enough to deal with the virus to catch it early as evidence suggests relatively few of that group will need comprehensive heath care to recover. That in turn means you don't have a shortage of healthcare staff later on when those who DO need the extra care come out of isolation and start to catch the virus in large numbers.

 

In Italy the health system has been over run by all ages, not just the elderly. They  are now having to make decisions on who to save among people n their 60;s and younger who have flooded the hospitals, those older have no resources available to them.

 

The other thing to remember is that these hospitalisations are on top of the usual admissions for all the other things people go to hospital for. What happens if you are in say a car accident and need an ICU bed in a couple of months time?

 

The UK plan seems very optimistic if its assuming that health workers will not be overwhelmed over the coming months, prior to the waves of older population walking out of their isolation and promptly coming down with it,  because the herd immunity figures suddenly go from 80% immune to 60% or so.

 

I assume they have crunched all the numbers and decided that this policy will give the best outcome for society and the economy in the longer term but all  in all it seems a little hard hearted to me.

 

We in the southern hemisphere have our own problems - our cold and flu season is just ramping up now, who knows the added effects of seasonal flu when added to this outbreak, hence we are doing all we can to limit its spread over the next few months.

Edited March 16, 2020 by monkeysarefun

[Ozexpatriate]

This pandemic will burn itself out - eventually, and hopefully with all the effort being applied to distance ourselves, sooner rather than later and with fewer excess deaths.

 

Governments are going to have to figure out how to restart the economy after so much disruption, but society will recover.

[Gibbo675]

8 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Interesting speech by Boris & co.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,- hot & sunny too he said !!!

 

Regarding the airline industry - what a world changer this is / will be for them going forward. Their future at the moment is anyone's guess.

 

Brit15

 

 

Hi Brit15,

 

My guess would be a deflationary bust to all manner of businesses and financial instruments especially if marshal law is implemented,

 

Gibbo.

[Gwiwer]

8 minutes ago, Ozexpatriate said:

This pandemic will burn itself out - eventually, and hopefully with all the effort being applied to distance ourselves, sooner rather than later and with fewer excess deaths.

 

Governments are going to have to figure out how to restart the economy after so much disruption, but society will recover.

And to some degree that is what we are waiting for.  All the measures we can put in place will at best limit spread. These things run a natural course and recede. 
 

Still only two cases locally and on that basis if no other I see no need to change my daily routine. 
 

And there are plenty of toilet rolls in the shops. 

[monkeysarefun]

2 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Still only two cases locally and on that basis if no other I see no need to change my daily routine. 
 

And there are plenty of toilet rolls in the shops. 

 

Hasnt the UK government just changed its testing policy to testing only those admitted into hospitals?  I remember a while back the NSW railways changed their definition of on time running from 3 minutes late to 5 minutes late,  they were then able to boast about how the trains were now more reliable. Seems a similar plan - test less people, get less positives...

 

Still no toilet paper down here..

[Reorte]

58 minutes ago, AlexsTrains said:

@jonny777 the drop in new cases is due to the testing being restricted to those currently in hospital showing symptoms, not for those with symptoms in the community, so the current figures shouldn't be used in arguments showing a decline as they only show part of the picture.

 

Are they doing fewer tests, or just concentrating the same amount of tests in a different direction? If it's the latter I'd expect more positives from directing them at a group more likely to have the virus. I hope it's the latter because I really can't think of any good reason for doing fewer tests overall, other than the people doing the tests are needed elsewhere (but I don't think we've reached that point).

[rob D2]

4 hours ago, TomE said:

 

Working in Civil Aviation, it's a very worrying time. I have friends who are pilots in the airlines, at major international carriers, who previously never conceived that they could be at risk and are now expecting to be unemployed or on unpaid leave within days. Even in the usually more robust world of business aviation, we've seen a complete collapse of traffic as people stop flying for fear of being isolated, or because countries have introduced travel bans. 

 

I fear that even if this were to peak in weeks rather than months, we are already beyond the point where the aviation industry, and by extension the wider tourism industry, will be anything other than a total bloodbath as a result. 

 

Tom.  

 

 

I’m with you bro. I work for an airline which has laid off 7300 staff...I’m hanging on....but for how much longer ...

[EddieB]

Irrespective of our opinion of the BBC, isn’t this a time to defer bringing the over-75s into the TV tax, as was planned for later in the year?

 

If they are to be shut in with little more than endless repeats of antique shows (in both senses), then surely they shouldn’t be forced to pay for the privilege?

[Oldddudders]

1 minute ago, rob D2 said:

I’m with you bro. I work for an airline which has laid off 7300 staff...I’m hanging on....but for how much longer ...

Many of us old ghytts are worried that we will catch it, and maybe die, but hey - we've all been there, done that  in life. You younger folk are having life's rug pulled from under your feet. I hope your future is brighter than it now must appear. 

[rob D2]

2 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Many of us old ghytts are worried that we will catch it, and maybe die, but hey - we've all been there, done that  in life. You younger folk are having life's rug pulled from under your feet. I hope your future is brighter than it now must appear. 

Thanks dudders.

I've been made redundant twice by airlines , I have friends with up to four occasions.

 

It’s all boom or bust in this game, but I thought there were other more credible threats TBH

[EddieB]

19 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

Are they doing fewer tests, or just concentrating the same amount of tests in a different direction? If it's the latter I'd expect more positives from directing them at a group more likely to have the virus. I hope it's the latter because I really can't think of any good reason for doing fewer tests overall, other than the people doing the tests are needed elsewhere (but I don't think we've reached that point).

In truth we have no idea how many untested positives are out there in the community, if they are showing no or only mild symptoms.  The only known statistic is the death toll, which is likely to exceed that of South Korea in the next couple of days.

 

We had a window of a few weeks from when South Korea was first impacted.

[57xx]

9 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Irrespective of our opinion of the BBC, isn’t this a time to defer bringing the over-75s into the TV tax, as was planned for later in the year?

 

If they are to be shut in with little more than endless repeats of antique shows (in both senses), then surely they shouldn’t be forced to pay for the privilege?

 

 

You mean like they announced earlier today?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51911065

[black and decker boy]

9 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Irrespective of our opinion of the BBC, isn’t this a time to defer bringing the over-75s into the TV tax, as was planned for later in the year?

 

If they are to be shut in with little more than endless repeats of antique shows (in both senses), then surely they shouldn’t be forced to pay for the privilege?

That was announced this morning 

[EddieB]

2 minutes ago, 57xx said:

 

 

You mean like they announced earlier today?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51911065

Just two months?

 

But thanks you, I had missed the announcement amongst all the other stuff.

 

 

[runs as required]

8 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

That was announced this morning 

Sounds like the comforting voice of Freddy Grisewood of the Home Service ...

[Reorte]

14 minutes ago, EddieB said:

In truth we have no idea how many untested positives are out there in the community, if they are showing no or only mild symptoms.  The only known statistic is the death toll, which is likely to exceed that of South Korea in the next couple of days.

 

The number of positive tests is a known statistic too.

If the tests are random (I know they aren't, but run with me for a moment) then although we wouldn't know the total they'd still track the same trends in the total. If the methodology changes though, i.e. the selection of who gets tested, that'll have an effect on the results too, on top of the picture of how many cases overall. The more targetted at likely positives the tests are the more likely the number of positives is to increase even if nothing else changes.

 

The most likely explanation of today's number is that it's simply due to random noise, a decrease in the number of positives despite all the factors making an increase more likely, the tests have just got unlucky and missed more positives than you'd expect, like a coin landing heads four times in a row, and I wouldn't be the least surprised if tomorrow's number went in the other direction. But it would nice if it didn't!

Edited March 16, 2020 by Reorte

[TomE]

57 minutes ago, rob D2 said:

I’m with you bro. I work for an airline which has laid off 7300 staff...I’m hanging on....but for how much longer ...

 
I offer you the best of luck! There are going to be many decent, hard working people in the industry finding themselves out of a job thanks to this (and of course not just in aviation). 
 

Tom. 

[black and decker boy]

All 3 at the no10 briefing were at pains to tell us we are at the start of the steep upward curve with London more advanced than the regions and that we are now thought to be 3 weeks behind Italy.

 

cases are expected to double every 5 days so we will pass the 28,000 cases Italy has today just before Good Friday.

[Reorte]

4 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

All 3 at the no10 briefing were at pains to tell us we are at the start of the steep upward curve with London more advanced than the regions and that we are now thought to be 3 weeks behind Italy.

 

cases are expected to double every 5 days so we will pass the 28,000 cases Italy has today just before Good Friday.

 

At the time Italy had the numbers we have now they were growing more rapidly there than here. 150 cases on the 23rd Feb to 1694 on the 1st March (8 days). The UK had 160 on the 6th March to 1543 on the 16th (10 days). I picked a starting point of about 150 to lessen the impact of smaller numbers.

 

There's an important caveat that differences in testing regimes may make such a comparison unreliable.

[Torper]

2 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Interesting speech by Boris & co. No comment other than I agree and will self isolate other than shopping.

 

There's considerable anger in the entertainment industry.  Johnson has strongly advised people not to attend theatres and other such productions.  He hasn't banned them.  Had he banned them, they'd have been able to claim production insurance.  As it is, the view seems to be that ""By not enforcing a shutdown, production insurance will not apply so producers and shows will go bankrupt, and tens of thousands of people will be without pay."

 

DT

[BoD]

How many others have had texts from their GPs telling them not to turn up for appointments but that they will be contacted by phone?  Suggests to me that, despite appearances there has been quite a lot of planning going on.  Schools next?

Edited March 16, 2020 by BoD

[kevinlms]

In Australia, they're going to stop booze/drug buses, due to the potential risk to police and possibly spreading the virus.

 

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/booze-buses-grounded-as-top-cops-listen-to-union-s-coronavirus-fears-20200316-p54ans.html

[black and decker boy]

45 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

At the time Italy had the numbers we have now they were growing more rapidly there than here. 150 cases on the 23rd Feb to 1694 on the 1st March (8 days). The UK had 160 on the 6th March to 1543 on the 16th (10 days). I picked a starting point of about 150 to lessen the impact of smaller numbers.

 

There's an important caveat that differences in testing regimes may make such a comparison unreliable.

It may well spread easier in Italy & the Mediterranean countries where 2 kisses is the normal greeting?

 

a London welcome (if you get one) is perhaps less contagious?