Formula 1 2019

[njee20]

Not on Lewis’s outlap they didn’t. As I said. They couldn’t possibly have known that. A lap later, yes, 2 laps later definitely, but I said the option was to pit Max the very next lap. I understand why they didn’t, and thereafter that would have been lunacy, but they had a viable option to pit Max they did not exercise. 

[mudmagnet]

I think the other thing to bear in mind that it appears that Lewis has been able manage tyre wear better than not only other teams but also Valtteri even when pushing hard behind another car. 

Last season and before he was often complaining that he could not follow closely behind another car for too long. The change in wing regulations have considerably benefited the Merc and in particular with Lewis at the helm. Added to that, he has raised his game again. 

 

[57xx]

3 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

In fairly clear air after second pit stop, Hamilton reeled in the Red Bull, he demonstrated 1.5 seconds a lap advantage. Yes, on fresh tyres, but the point is that this performance is there in the car, to give away a pit stop and then drive right up to the back of the guy who didn't stop,  and then overtake.

 

I think you're being a bit disingenuous there. You  imply that from his outlap he was lapping 1.5s a lap quicker all the way to the end, which he was not. For about 3 laps he was only 0.5s quicker on the fresh tyres, then was on a par with Max for 4 laps. It was only 8 laps later that he really put the hammer down. You've also appear to have completely ignored the talent behind the wheel and placed all the pace advantage on the car, yet where was Valtteri? His fastest lap was 0.8s slower than Lewis. Max will also have been nursing his tyres, they were shot 14 laps after Lewis's last pit stop, his pace dropping off after lap 62.

 

 

3 hours ago, njee20 said:

Lewis beat Max by 18 seconds

 

Remembering that was only because Max pitted for tyres to get the fastest lap.

[daltonparva]

I heard someone say this was Max's first pole in 93 starts, which means he's done 4 and a half seasons. I didn't think it was that long. Time flies when you're knocking on.

[Mike Storey]

It was certainly a fascinating race.

 

Apart from all the drama at the front, did anyone work out why Norris ended up so far behind Sainz? (Well, not that far.) He lost a place to him at the start, but after that, in the highlights, I could not follow what happened. They did show a couple of very decent passes by Lando and some heroic defending.

 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

3 hours ago, 57xx said:

...I think you're being a bit disingenuous there. You  imply that from his outlap he was lapping 1.5s a lap quicker all the way to the end, which he was not...

No, you are misreading it. I stated that Hamilton demonstrated a 1.5 second per lap advantage after his second pit stop, with no implication that this was continuous. We simply don't see the Mercedes unleashed at what might be its full potential that often, but this looked like it. Hamilton first worked the tyres in, and then got access to all the beans to reel in the Red Bull. I am interested in trying to work out just how much of their performance advantage Mercedes work to keep concealed.

[37114]

10 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

It was certainly a fascinating race.

 

Apart from all the drama at the front, did anyone work out why Norris ended up so far behind Sainz? (Well, not that far.) He lost a place to him at the start, but after that, in the highlights, I could not follow what happened. They did show a couple of very decent passes by Lando and some heroic defending.

 

Slow pits stop, they had a problem with a wheel not goingon properly. 

[Hobby]

10 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

No, you are misreading it. I stated that Hamilton demonstrated a 1.5 second per lap advantage after his second pit stop, with no implication that this was continuous. We simply don't see the Mercedes unleashed at what might be its full potential that often, but this looked like it. Hamilton first worked the tyres in, and then got access to all the beans to reel in the Red Bull. I am interested in trying to work out just how much of their performance advantage Mercedes work to keep concealed.

 

Not as much as people are trying to make out... In the above you don't mention that Max's tyres were going off for the whole of that 20 lap period whereas Lewis's were fresh. It was noticeable that he really started to catch up a lot in the second 10 lap section. I wonder if Max had pushed it a little more during the first 10 laps but found that the tyres just didn't have enough life in them, easing off, which then allowed Lewis to real him in quickly which he did. The overtake was one of the easiest we'd seen which rather bears that out.

 

Without seeing the complete data for both cars I doubt we'll ever know for sure, both yours and my readings could be right or we could both be barking up the wrong tree...

 

I suspect that there are few drivers that any team would have risked that strategy with the likelihood that they would pull it off, though... The pretender to the throne ceratinly made a big challenge for the throne was told very firmly where to go!

[57xx]

11 minutes ago, Hobby said:

I wonder if Max had pushed it a little more during the first 10 laps but found that the tyres just didn't have enough life in them, easing off, which then allowed Lewis to real him in quickly which he did. The overtake was one of the easiest we'd seen which rather bears that out.

 

Nope, he was lapping very consistently for the last 30 laps up until his tyres hit the cliff. Look 5 posts up, I've laid it out on a plate for you.   You can see where his tyres went off on lap 63 and his lap times slowed.

 

Click the graphic and you got all the race data you could want and can play with the charts as you require. Saves guesswork and postulating.

Edited August 6, 2019 by 57xx

[298]

What if Verstappen had hammered a few laps out and then pitted...? Then the hunter would have become the hunted, and a whole new psychological game. As long as Max didn't fall off then the worst position he would have ended up in as second, which is where he ended up anyway.

[njee20]

But that would have guaranteed second, unless Max could have got past Lewis. Better to do what they did (once they missed the opportunity to mimic Merc's strategy call), and try and defend first with a potential second, rather than be forced into having to reclaim first.

[Andrew P]

me wacky predictions for the second half of the season.

 

Danny R will find a loophole in his Renault contract to allow him to leave at the  end of the season. (He has realised that Money is NOT the be all, and end all)

Red Bull will be waiting?

Bottas will get the elbow, and move to McLaren replacing Carlos Sainz

Sainz will go to Alfa, replacing Kimi.

Ocon will jump into the Merc hot seat on a one year contract.

Hulkenburg will be replaced by George Russel at Renault.

Hass will replace Grosjean with Hulkenberg.

Grosjean will return to Renault replacing the grinning Aus bloke, where he has had good success in the past

Vettel will retire and be replaced by Mick Schumacher.

Williams will release Robert Kubica.

 

So 2 spare seats available at Williams, If they can keep going, or be taken over by Merc as a No 2 Factory Team a bit like Alfa is to the Red Cars.

 

As I can't think of anything else daft to say, I'll close by saying Miniti Binito will be sacked by the Red Team.

 

My tablets are wearing off so must go for some more medication.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Andrew P
aded a word

[woodenhead]

17 minutes ago, Andrew P said:

me wacky predictions for the second half of the season.

 

Danny R will find a loophole in his Renault contract to allow him to leave at the  end of the season. (He has realised that Money is NOT the be all, and end all)

Red Bull will be waiting?

Bottas will get the elbow, and move to McLaren replacing Carlos Sainz

Sainz will go to Alfa, replacing Kimi.

Ocon will jump into the Merc hot seat on a one year contract.

Hulkenburg will be replaced by George Russel at Renault.

Hass will replace Grosjean with Hulkenberg.

Grosjean will return to Renault replacing the grinning Aus bloke, where he has had good success in the past

Vettel will retire and be replaced by Mick Schumacher.

Williams will release Robert Kubica.

 

So 2 spare seats available at Williams, If they can keep going, or be taken over by Merc as a No 2 Factory Team a bit like Alfa is to the Red Cars.

 

As I can't think of anything else daft to say, I'll close by saying Miniti Binito will be sacked by the Red Team.

 

My tablets are wearing off so must go for some more medication.

 

 

Wacky indeed Mr P.

 

There will be lots of movement but not at McLaren I don't think - they seem to be building a momentum and have two content drivers - nothing to change there.

 

Bottas or Ocon to Renault, it all depends if Mercedes want to stick or twist.

 

Smiley Aussie bloke won't be returning to RB - he turned them down to join Renault and RB need a compliant number two which smiley Aussie bloke never will be (nor should he be).

[Andrew P]

44 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Wacky indeed Mr P.

 

There will be lots of movement but not at McLaren I don't think - they seem to be building a momentum and have two content drivers - nothing to change there.

 

Bottas or Ocon to Renault, it all depends if Mercedes want to stick or twist.

 

Smiley Aussie bloke won't be returning to RB - he turned them down to join Renault and RB need a compliant number two which smiley Aussie bloke never will be (nor should he be).

I forgot that McLaren had already said their two drivers were confirmed for next year,

 

Merc would probably prefer Bottas went to a Merc powered Car, but there ain't many of them on the grid.

 

Christian Horner did say last week that the sport was worse off without DR on the Podium, and they are still firm friends.

[EddieB]

2 hours ago, Andrew P said:

me wacky predictions for the second half of the season.

 

I’ve hit the “agree” button, as all (with the exception of Schumi Jr, give it another 18 months) are perfectly plausible, and in keeping with the current rumour mill.

 

Some drivers are under extreme pressure: Gasly, the Haas twins, most tellingly Bottas whose excellent season start has gone away and he appears to be melting in the heat put on him by the team.

[njee20]

I can’t see Bottas leaving. He’s a safe pair of hands who delivers decent results and constructors championships without always chasing glory for himself. He’s the perfect number 2. Ocon has never driven a race-winning car, hasn’t raced  in F1 at all for a year, had a penchant for crashing into his team mate and has potential designs on his own world title chances. I think it’d be madness to stick him in the Merc.

 

not necessarily second half of the season, but I’d say:

 

- Grosjean out, Hulk to Haas

- Russel to Renault

- Ocon to Williams (it’s a bad car, but he wants a drive, and it keeps him in the Mercedes frame)

 

Something to change at RB, as Gasly’s got to sort himself out, but I can’t see them putting Albon or Kvyat (back) in the RB. 

 

[Andrew P]

8 minutes ago, njee20 said:

I can’t see Bottas leaving. He’s a safe pair of hands who delivers decent results and constructors championships without always chasing glory for himself. He’s the perfect number 2. Ocon has never driven a race-winning car, hasn’t raced  in F1 at all for a year, had a penchant for crashing into his team mate and has potential designs on his own world title chances. I think it’d be madness to stick him in the Merc.

 

not necessarily second half of the season, but I’d say:

 

- Grosjean out, Hulk to Haas

- Russel to Renault

- Ocon to Williams (it’s a bad car, but he wants a drive, and it keeps him in the Mercedes frame)

 

Something to change at RB, as Gasly’s got to sort himself out, but I can’t see them putting Albon or Kvyat (back) in the RB. 

 

I totally agree about RB, neither Albon or Kvyat are any better than Gasley, 

 

On another tack, could Ocon go to Racing Point again, or on a 12 Month loan to Hass or Renault?

 

Your probably right about Bottas, the Team has improved internally since Rosberg went, and he has that calming influence that works well and has never given Toto or Lewis any reason to get angry with him. He has made mistakes under pressure, but he can still win Races and grab Pole when Lewis is not 100%. So yes I do agree, that despite my earlier madness, Bottas is as you quite rightly say, a safe pair of hands.

[Pete the Elaner]

I am surprised Bottas's seat is allegedly under threat.

He does seem to follow team orders & so far has kept it clean when battling with Hamilton.

He has raised his game this season. winning 2 races (including the 1st) & out-qualifying Hamilton on several occasions, pushing him without being a threat.

 

If his team-mate is 1st in the championship, how much better can he do than 2nd?

[Andrew P]

21 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

I am surprised Bottas's seat is allegedly under threat.

He does seem to follow team orders & so far has kept it clean when battling with Hamilton.

He has raised his game this season. winning 2 races (including the 1st) & out-qualifying Hamilton on several occasions, pushing him without being a threat.

 

If his team-mate is 1st in the championship, how much better can he do than 2nd?

To be fair, that is all very valid points, and certainly if I was in Toto's shoes, I wouldn't want to rock the boat. If Lewis went through a really bad patch, Bottas could easily pick up a few wins and keep Merc in the hunt for both titles.

I think the reason that Toto is looking at Ocon, is more guilt, for not getting him the Drive at McLaren this year, and remember Ocon is still young, and certainly has more talent than shall we say Kubica, Stroll, and at the moment Grosjean.

[PaulRhB]

Bottas has got so close to Lewis in the early half that while they’ve got the best car he is comfortably delivering the results. I guess Toto is wondering what would happen though if Ferrari had delivered the better car, as it looked in testing, as Valtteri has sometimes lacked the killer attitude to fight back up the field. They might think Ocon would do that but balanced against that will his aggression cause crashes and lose points? Verstappen has looked like the crash twins at Haas in the past but his moves have a higher percentage of success so it’s been tolerated. 

[njee20]

51 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

I am surprised Bottas's seat is allegedly under threat.

He does seem to follow team orders & so far has kept it clean when battling with Hamilton.

He has raised his game this season. winning 2 races (including the 1st) & out-qualifying Hamilton on several occasions, pushing him without being a threat.

 

If his team-mate is 1st in the championship, how much better can he do than 2nd?

I'm not totally sure it is. His contract is up for renewal, but the rest just seems to be media speculation. I certainly don't think his future depended on the outcome of the last couple of races as some pundits were suggesting.

[Oldddudders]

I think Toto has made it clear that Ocon is also in the frame. All drivers have off-days, but Bottas's seem to be rather worse than Lewis's. And hero to zero in the first few corners of the last race before the break was not what anyone wanted to see. 

 

I am making no predictions, except that there will be some musical chairs for next season, and if Mercedes choose Ocon, Bottas will be quickly snapped up elsewhere. 

[Andrew P]

Bottas, Plan ''B'' and ''C''.

https://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/27345465/bottas-plan-b-plan-c-case-mercedes-chooses-ocon

[Luke123]

18 hours ago, Andrew P said:

Bottas, Plan ''B'' and ''C''.

https://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/27345465/bottas-plan-b-plan-c-case-mercedes-chooses-ocon

 

Interesting that it says Ocon has been linked to Haas given that they are Ferrari lite and he is  one of Merc's young drivers, so imo dont see it happening ... but then again i've been wrong about these things before!

[RJS1977]

On 08/08/2019 at 08:49, Andrew P said:

To be fair, that is all very valid points, and certainly if I was in Toto's shoes, I wouldn't want to rock the boat. If Lewis went through a really bad patch, Bottas could easily pick up a few wins and keep Merc in the hunt for both titles.

I think the reason that Toto is looking at Ocon, is more guilt, for not getting him the Drive at McLaren this year, and remember Ocon is still young, and certainly has more talent than shall we say Kubica, Stroll, and at the moment Grosjean.

 

The other thing Toto has to bear in mind is - Lewis won't be there forever. He's got one more year left on his current contract, and he's been making positive noises about renewing it, but he's clearly a lot closer to the end of his F1 career than its beginning. He's also in the past dropped hints about how he would like to drive for Ferrari (though given that team's current predicaments, I think it's unlikely he'd do that). And of course, although F1 is far safer than it used to be, the possibility of something nasty happening can't be ruled out.

 

So Toto has to have one eye on what happens when Lewis isn't there any more. Does Bottas have the potential to step up to the plate and become de facto 'lead driver' (and yes, I know Mercedes  officially doesn't have one!)? Possibly, as sometimes the extra responsibility that comes with being thrust into that role can cause a driver to flourish, but I doubt it from what I've seen so far.