Petrol prices

[jjb1970]

Petrol and diesel are a fraction of the price of fancy coffee, soft drinks and even some bottled water, all of which people seem happy enough to buy without considering themselves as being ripped off. I always find that quite an interesting example of behaviour.

In the UK you are not really paying for petrol or diesel, you are paying tax. Is it a bad thing that oil is expensive? I always think if you genuinely want to reduce the consumption of anything then making it expensive is an effective (if blunt) way of doing it. Get an efficient car or a battery car. Travel less. Plan your journeys. If paying for fuel is cheaper than paying for a more efficient car then I don't see why the cost of fuel should be a problem.

[sjp23480]

Just back from Portugal where petrol and diesel prices were €1.50-€1.60 (£1.37-£1.45) per litre. In past visits, the prices have been broadly comparable to the UK.

 

Prices normal drop in spring/summer due to reduced demand. But, I believe both Saudi and Russia are limiting production/exports which is driving prices. I guess they need the revenue to strengthen their respective positions in the world? Increasing oil prices is a relatively easy way to use market forces to raise those funds.

 

I also believe that very little oil is bought on the spot market, the oil being delivered today was probably bought at least 6 months ago.

 

I suspect we have not seen the last of these increases.

Edited May 19, 2018 by sjp23480

[jjb1970]

Expect a spike in diesel prices in late 2019, that spike will be independent of other price pressures and the oil price.

[melmerby]

If fuel cost is so much of a burden why has the average size of cars increased and to a less fuel effecient type of vehicle in the manufacturer's range?

 

Keith

[MarkC]

Expect a spike in diesel prices in late 2019, that spike will be independent of other price pressures and the oil price.

Yes indeed, because running up to 1/1/20 and the implementation of a 1% sulphur content cap on Heavy Fuel Oil, there's likely to be some very strange goings-on with fuel prices, as refineries have to ensure that they can get down to that level. The Paris MOU, which covers, inter alia, Europe, has already said that they will be testing ships for compliance from 1/1/20, so there will have to be supplies available in advance of that date. It was bad enough complying with Gas Oil supplies for operating in the European SECA prior to 1/1/15; this is likely to be worse.

[MarkC]

If fuel cost is so much of a burden why has the average size of cars increased and to a less fuel effecient type of vehicle in the manufacturer's range?

 

Keith

I traded our family car last year from a 2007 Nissan Qashqai to a new Euro 6 compliant Peugeot 3008. Both diesels. Fuel economy is slightly worse, but my VED cost fell from £135 to £20 per annum. I expected fuel economy to improve, but it went the other way. Wierd.

[melmerby]

I traded our family car last year from a 2007 Nissan Qashqai to a new Euro 6 compliant Peugeot 3008. Both diesels. Fuel economy is slightly worse, but my VED cost fell from £135 to £20 per annum. I expected fuel economy to improve, but it went the other way. Wierd.

I traded my 2 litre 2007 diesel for a 2017 1.5L petrol (Euro 6 compliant) of the same car range, CO₂ emissions are supposedly less kg/m and the VED went up. Total madness.

Fuel consumption is a lot worse though. It's down from 45 to 35-36 mpg* and worse than I was expecting. In hindsight and checking the VED I should have stuck with a 2 litre diesel.

So much for the Government's (non) clear air policy!

 

*It seems to be much worse at low speeds, at higher speed cruising 60- 70 mph it is probably slightly better than the previous car.

Both cars have 6 speed gearboxes.

(My petrol 2 litre auto Mondeo I had 20 years ago was give me 33mpg.)

 

Keith

Edited May 19, 2018 by melmerby

[jjb1970]

I get about 65mpg average door to door on a longish journey, around town its about 45mpg. That's perfectly fine for a big family barge (Audi A6) with a 190hp engine and auto box I think

[jjb1970]

Yes indeed, because running up to 1/1/20 and the implementation of a 1% sulphur content cap on Heavy Fuel Oil, there's likely to be some very strange goings-on with fuel prices, as refineries have to ensure that they can get down to that level. The Paris MOU, which covers, inter alia, Europe, has already said that they will be testing ships for compliance from 1/1/20, so there will have to be supplies available in advance of that date. It was bad enough complying with Gas Oil supplies for operating in the European SECA prior to 1/1/15; this is likely to be worse.

Indeed, however it is 0.1%mm sulphur. In fairness that's still an awful lot higher than 10ppm industrial and automotive fuel but it is nevertheless a step change for most ships. And IMO and the Administrations still have an awful lot of work to do with not a lot of time. When the decision was taken there were two studies considered by IMO on fuel availability, an official IMO study done by CE Delft and one funded by BIMCO and IPIECA and completed by Ensys and Navigistics, unfortunately I don't think many people read anything more than the executive summary. The CE Delft study said we will have enough compliant fuel, the BIMCO and IPIECA one cast doubts however both were based on some significant assumptions and if you read them in detail the differences were nothing like as significant as advocates of either wanted the world to believe. If you went past the summary the CE Delft study was more equivocal than most realised, equally the BIMCO/IPIECA study considered that there would be enough fuel globally (subject to those assumptions.....) but uneven regional distribution and with severe inflationary pressure for other sectors.

[Mike Storey]

Indeed, however it is 0.1%mm sulphur. In fairness that's still an awful lot higher than 10ppm industrial and automotive fuel but it is nevertheless a step change for most ships. And IMO and the Administrations still have an awful lot of work to do with not a lot of time. When the decision was taken there were two studies considered by IMO on fuel availability, an official IMO study done by CE Delft and one funded by BIMCO and IPIECA and completed by Ensys and Navigistics, unfortunately I don't think many people read anything more than the executive summary. The CE Delft study said we will have enough compliant fuel, the BIMCO and IPIECA one cast doubts however both were based on some significant assumptions and if you read them in detail the differences were nothing like as significant as advocates of either wanted the world to believe. If you went past the summary the CE Delft study was more equivocal than most realised, equally the BIMCO/IPIECA study considered that there would be enough fuel globally (subject to those assumptions.....) but uneven regional distribution and with severe inflationary pressure for other sectors.

 

Interesting, but I don't quite see how that will affect the fuel prices at Tescos (unless you are re-filling your boat)??

[jjb1970]

Interesting, but I don't quite see how that will affect the fuel prices at Tescos (unless you are re-filling your boat)??

Because the shipping sector will be buying an extra couple of hundred million tonnes of middle distillates. The refineries only have a certain capacity for middle distillates (which is the stream used for automotive fuel) and in some regions there won't be enough. Any overnight surge of that magnitude will have a price impact. On the upside, there'll be a massive surge in demand for clean products tankers to ship the stuff around the world to even out regional distribution (which itself will have price and carbon emission implications obviously).

[The Stationmaster]

Fuel prices go down all the time.

 

Diesel was 125p in 2008, we’re just back there now.

 

Sounds like it would be worth driving to Sussex to fill up - on Sunday diesel was 128.9 here, on Monday it went up to 129.9 and on Thursday it was at 130.9.  Admittedly this is at a Euro(Pak)garages site and they area. bunch of overcharging chancers but in a nearby town it was at 127.9 or 128.9 10 days ago so there is clearly a general market rate in this part of the world.

Petrol prices here in WA swing wildly and can change by 20c overnight. It's on a weekly cycle and we're told it's due to overseas factors. Strange, then, that the peaks seem to coincide with days when demand will be highest. Thursdays generally, which for most people is still pay/pension/dole day, so folk who've been stretching a tank until they can afford to fill up will be stung.

 

Diesel is much more stable. There may be a correlation with private user demand being much lower, offering less opportunity for gouging.

 

On the bright side we still only pay in cents what UK users pay in pence. Doesn't stop folk whingeing incessantly as they pour another thankful into their V8 Falcadore or bloated 4x4 before sitting in a stationary traffic queue on the freeway for an hour or two.

 

When I was working in NSW back in 2004/5 it was noticeable that a filling station I walked past everyday on the way to work always increased their prices as the weekend approached and then cut it on Mondays - same thing every week.

[The Stationmaster]

Because the shipping sector will be buying an extra couple of hundred million tonnes of middle distillates. The refineries only have a certain capacity for middle distillates (which is the stream used for automotive fuel) and in some regions there won't be enough. Any overnight surge of that magnitude will have a price impact. On the upside, there'll be a massive surge in demand for clean products tankers to ship the stuff around the world to even out regional distribution (which itself will have price and carbon emission implications obviously).

 

And it could be even worse in the UK as here there is allegedly less vehicle diesel produced than there is demand for it.

[jjb1970]

I think the IMO decision is quite revealing in what it reveals about the approach of government agencies and to some degree green NGOs. The change will significantly increase carbon emissions from refineries as a result of the energy demand to de-sulphurise fuel. HFO is essentially a waste stream, there has been a symbiotic relationship between oil refineries and shipping for many decades in that shipping can utilise this waste as a useful transport fuel. The refineries can be reconfigured for zero residue or to de-sulphurise heavy fuel, but either option is both capital and energy intensive which is why both industries have been happy to support each other by supplying and using HFO. This was made clear before decisions were made. This was made clear, as was the regional distribution issue, the ship owner/operators neither supportednor opposed the 2020 implementation (partly for political reasons, partly out of recognition we need to reduce SOx emissions and that a delay would only kick the can down the road by another 5 years) and it was emphasised by those who made the decision that they'd made an informed decision. Now some of them are waking up to certain information they either ignored or were wilfully ignorant about and throwing their arms up in horror, so much for "informed" decision making. However, mustn't be cynical. I always advise people that is something is genuinely important, read the full document and do not rely on an executive summary or abstract as people can be very adept at presenting the executive summary or abstract to provide a particular story whilst making sure the body of a report or technical paper contains everything necessary to be referred to later if things go wrong.

[jjb1970]

And it could be even worse in the UK as here there is allegedly less vehicle diesel produced than there is demand for it.

For quite a few years there was a mutually beneficial trade in transporting surplus petrol/gasoline from Europe to North America and carrying their surplus diesel to Europe on the other leg as a result of refinery configuration and fuel demand in NA and Europe. However that has changed for a number of reasons. I'm sort of optimistic as I think industry is actually pretty good at solving problems and once it is given regulatory certainty will get on with the job but there will be some big bumps on the road in 2020 and I feel sorry for people in emerging economies who don't have the money we have and who will probably face a combination of very tight fuel supply and high prices for at least a period.

[talisman56]

The price for unleaded at my local Tesco (just round the corner, so I pass it every day) has been hovering at 116.9-117.9p for a long while. It went up from 116.9p to 118.9p last week, and from 118.9p to 122.9p over three days this week...

 

I don't know why they have to have the '.9' at the end - if they used the other eight numbers between 0 and 9 to represent competitive pricing then OK, but everyone uses it so there is little justification for complicating the buying process. We don't have a 0.9p coin...

Edited May 19, 2018 by talisman56

[MarkC]

Interesting, but I don't quite see how that will affect the fuel prices at Tescos (unless you are re-filling your boat)??

Boat? BOAT?

 

Ships, dear boy. Ships

 

My present ship can bunker some 1000m³ of fuel to 95% capacity. That's 1 million litres. *Resists temptation to say that last sentence in Dr Evil voice, with pinky touching corner of mouth*

 

That is enough for about 40 days sailing at full speed of 16.5 knots, carrying 4,400 Tonnes of liquid Ethylene, and keeping it cold at -103^oC.

 

Mine is but one vessel happily sailing the Seven Seas (and all points in between), keeping the world trading. It's a lot of fuel that we use, but water borne transport is, by a long way, the most fuel efficient means of transporting freight.

[jjb1970]

If the green NGOs have their way you'll be steaming around the world at two knots. And if Rolls Royce get their way you'll have a box of Kleenex for company (assuming they allow anybody to remain onboard) and you'll be ordered around by a bloke in an office on the other side of the world (even more than now).

 

I know it's easy to look at the past through rose tinted glasses and see it as some golden bygone age and see modernity as being negative, but in the case of shipping as much as I loved ships and my time at sea I really have had few regrets about leaving and feel profoundly sorry for young cadets entering the industry. Then again, I suspect those youngsters would look upon the sort of conditions of my time at sea (no Internet, letters in a company mail bag at ports, actually having to go into the engine room to operate machinery, having to do our own maintenance etc) with equal horror. The world changes.

[Mike Storey]

Boat? BOAT?

 

Ships, dear boy. Ships

 

My present ship can bunker some 1000m³ of fuel to 95% capacity. That's 1 million litres. *Resists temptation to say that last sentence in Dr Evil voice, with pinky touching corner of mouth*

 

That is enough for about 40 days sailing at full speed of 16.5 knots, carrying 4,400 Tonnes of liquid Ethylene, and keeping it cold at -103^oC.

 

Mine is but one vessel happily sailing the Seven Seas (and all points in between), keeping the world trading. It's a lot of fuel that we use, but water borne transport is, by a long way, the most fuel efficient means of transporting freight.

 

I stand corrected, but how do you get your ship into Tesco's? 

[jjb1970]

I stand corrected, but how do you get your ship into Tesco's?

Through the power of positive thought and levitation.

[MarkC]

I stand corrected, but how do you get your ship into Tesco's? 

Take a run at it - you've seen Speed 2? True story. Oh, hang on...

[peach james]

It's not the getting into the line part that's tricky....

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's the getting out again that is hard !

(stay away from the green bits on the chart, this boat (*) is not equipped with training wheels !)

 

 

(*) I'm meaning one of the YAG's, or ORCA's... YAG's were 70 tons, 4' draft, Orca's are 210 tons, 9' draft...)

 

James

[kevinlms]

Sounds like it would be worth driving to Sussex to fill up - on Sunday diesel was 128.9 here, on Monday it went up to 129.9 and on Thursday it was at 130.9.  Admittedly this is at a Euro(Pak)garages site and they area. bunch of overcharging chancers but in a nearby town it was at 127.9 or 128.9 10 days ago so there is clearly a general market rate in this part of the world.

 

When I was working in NSW back in 2004/5 it was noticeable that a filling station I walked past everyday on the way to work always increased their prices as the weekend approached and then cut it on Mondays - same thing every week.

The system has changed now, it isn't a weekly thing. More like 10-12 days. The swings are wilder too. In Melbourne for the past month the variation has been between about $1.24.9 - $1.49.9 per litre. However the swing is not universal, I live just outside the metro area & the local servos, have a smaller range of low to high. Thus it is possible to pay $1.38 a litre, when 15km's away it is 1.49, or $1.32 when its $1.26!

 

So sometimes its cheaper to buy locally (with no 4c a litre discount), than it is to buy at Woolworths. Even Woolworths varies by 7c a litre, depending on suburb, so a bit of a lottery! Fortunately, I get around a bit, so I can choose. But I do still get caught and forget to buy in the mornings & cop a hike by afternoon!

[Horsetan]

Only managed 69mpg going to ExpoEM this morning. Just as well I didn't drive the CX there; there weren't any spaces in the car park left to fit it in.

[Mike Storey]

The system has changed now, it isn't a weekly thing. More like 10-12 days. The swings are wilder too. In Melbourne for the past month the variation has been between about $1.24.9 - $1.49.9 per litre. However the swing is not universal, I live just outside the metro area & the local servos, have a smaller range of low to high. Thus it is possible to pay $1.38 a litre, when 15km's away it is 1.49, or $1.32 when its $1.26!

 

So sometimes its cheaper to buy locally (with no 4c a litre discount), than it is to buy at Woolworths. Even Woolworths varies by 7c a litre, depending on suburb, so a bit of a lottery! Fortunately, I get around a bit, so I can choose. But I do still get caught and forget to buy in the mornings & cop a hike by afternoon!

 

There is still a Woolworths in Oz??