Hornby 2018 Announcements

[Ben Alder]

What we need is for one of the major manufacturers to do a tie-in with our national railway museum in the same way as they have done with York.

 

But the most interesting ones aren't in the museum collection

[John M Upton]

And at the rate the NRM are giving stuff away, there won't be much left in the collection at all except for Flying Moneypit.

[Legend]

But the most interesting ones aren't in the museum collection

Well the Riverside Museum does have Glen Douglas, Gordon Highlander , HR103 and the Caley 123 (please not another reissue) . If they could be sure that models would give them a return it might be a go’er . I suspect the initial tooling costs would be an issue however. Your right though , that doesn’t cover my Caley 812 , jumbo or 0-4-4T or Maude.

 

Harburn in Edinburgh is probably the largest remaining model shop. They do limited editions but it’s restricted to wagons . I can’t see them putting up the collateral for a loco. Who does that leave, the SRPS perhaps?

[60027Merlin]

Well the Riverside Museum does have Glen Douglas, Gordon Highlander , HR103 and the Caley 123 (please not another reissue) . If they could be sure that models would give them a return it might be a go’er . I suspect the initial tooling costs would be an issue however. Your right though , that doesn’t cover my Caley 812 , jumbo or 0-4-4T or Maude.

 

Harburn in Edinburgh is probably the largest remaining model shop. They do limited editions but it’s restricted to wagons . I can’t see them putting up the collateral for a loco. Who does that leave, the SRPS perhaps?

 

No!

 

Not at circa £150k - £200K cost of producing a locomotive model.

[Pteremy]

Dream on. Truly we do not know how lucky we are. So lets hope for something that is both a commercial success, and something that is accurate enough to make a small niche of modellers happy, even if  - this time - it does not meet our own needs. There needs to be a viable 'mass market', entry level and ongoing, to keep everything else afloat. 

[FJ1701]

Maybe Hornby should take another shot at the 4VEP or even do a 4CIG 

[Chamby]

Re: Scottish prototypes:

 

The 2011 census has the population of England at 53million, whilst Scotland is a tenth of that at 5.3 million. This implies that any purely Scottish locomotive will need a much wider appeal to be financially viable, if new tooling is involved.

 

You could argue that this means that in a fair world Scottish modellers might expect one in ten newly tooled models to be of Scottish prototypes. But then again, if the Scottish market is one tenth the size of England’s, it is hard to see how the financials can stack up, unless it is ten times more popular in Scotland than an equivalent English model would be, or sells nine times as many models outside of Scotland as in. Or something in between.... whatever, that’s a tall order.

 

This is not just a Scottish issue as there are regional limitations to consider for many potential English models as well. But it does illustrate an economic reality that the likes of H&B will be very mindful of.

 

Then again, the population of Ireland is not that different to Scotland, and uniquely Irish models are around. I suspect that the business model here is more akin to Kernow’s than H&B though?

Edited December 22, 2017 by Chamby

[tomparryharry]

Your population census is a little bit 'off' in your scenario.

 

The headcount is accurate, but this falls down against the disposable income' demographic. You could argue that there are more A's & B's than Z10's north of Carlisle, than south of it.

 

Some more spending power research is called for, methinks. Equally however, is the same scenario for anything west of Paddington.

 

H&B? Hull & Barnsley Railway?

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

Edited December 22, 2017 by tomparryharry

[Mallard60022]

Hornybee to go 7mm; that's what I was told last night. Now there's a shock (or is it?) Baccy to go more 2mm. Curve ba1ls from both camps?

Phil

[luckymucklebackit]

Hornybee to go 7mm; that's what I was told last night. Now there's a shock (or is it?) Baccy to go more 2mm. Curve ba1ls from both camps?

Phil

 

Told you before: If Hornby are going to venture into any new scale, TT-3 to make a comeback!

 

I see Hattons have a countdown clock ticking away just above where I am typing- exactly, wait for it, 17 days!!!

 

Jim

[Legend]

Re: Scottish prototypes:

 

The 2011 census has the population of England at 53million, whilst Scotland is a tenth of that at 5.3 million. This implies that any purely Scottish locomotive will need a much wider appeal to be financially viable, if new tooling is involved.

 

You could argue that this means that in a fair world Scottish modellers might expect one in ten newly tooled models to be of Scottish prototypes. But then again, if the Scottish market is one tenth the size of England’s, it is hard to see how the financials can stack up, unless it is ten times more popular in Scotland than an equivalent English model would be, or sells nine times as many models outside of Scotland as in. Or something in between.... whatever, that’s a tall order.

 

This is not just a Scottish issue as there are regional limitations to consider for many potential English models as well. But it does illustrate an economic reality that the likes of H&B will be very mindful of.

 

Then again, the population of Ireland is not that different to Scotland, and uniquely Irish models are around. I suspect that the business model here is more akin to Kernow’s than H&B though?

 

Yes but again you cant go by geography. There are lots of people south of the border that model Scotlands railways . Look at all these models of Ardlui  and stations on the West Highland . Its popular way beyond the shores of Bonnie Scotland . Just as there are modellers north of the border modelling the Southern . This there's only 5.3m Scots and that the size of the model railway market really is a bit of a bogus argument

[coachmann]

I know absolutely nothing about plastic toy sales, but before the turn of the Century, we used to joke there was no 'brass' in the North East nor in Scotland.

[luckymucklebackit]

Totally agree with Legend, if Scottish based prototype layouts were so scarce the the Dapol classes 17/26 and 27 would never have been sold in profitable quantities and as they all have been re-issued they must be regarded as good sellers.

 

JIm

[The Stationmaster]

Your population census is a little bit 'off' in your scenario.

 

The headcount is accurate, but this falls down against the disposable income' demographic. You could argue that there are more A's & B's than Z10's north of Carlisle, than south of it.

 

Some more spending power research is called for, methinks. Equally however, is the same scenario for anything west of Paddington.

 

H&B? Hull & Barnsley Railway?

 

Cheers,

 

Ian.

 

And not only that but you don't have to live in Scotland to be interested in or model Scottish prototypes.  There are plenty of folk in the modelling world who have an interest in Welsh railways of all sorts and I bet a lot of them don't live in Wales.

 

The key is the disposable income demographic and then all sorts of things come into play around whatever decisions are made about the way that disposable income is spent, something attractive will probably always do well as both Bachmann and Hornby have proved in recent years while Kernow are showing yet again that prototypes in limited numbers doesn't necessarily hamper the model railway market..

[Andy Mac]

Re: Scottish prototypes:

 

You could argue that this means that in a fair world Scottish modellers might expect one in ten newly tooled models to be of Scottish prototypes. But then again, if the Scottish market is one tenth the size of England’s, it is hard to see how the financials can stack up, unless it is ten times more popular in Scotland than an equivalent English model would be, or sells nine times as many models outside of Scotland as in. Or something in between.... whatever, that’s a tall order.

 

Going by your argument, then there shouldn’t be any N gauge releases, as I believe N gauge is roughly 10% of the OO market... I think railway modellers are 100% unpredictable in what they purchase.... I only buy anything Scottish, but somehow, have a rather large number of models I like that never ran north of the border... Edited December 22, 2017 by Andy Mac

[Hroth]

Totally agree with Legend, if Scottish based prototype layouts were so scarce the the Dapol classes 17/26 and 27 would never have been sold in profitable quantities and as they all have been re-issued they must be regarded as good sellers.

 

JIm

17s are cute, and 26/0s can be Eastern Region up to 1960 so there are Rule 1 excuses to run them in locations other than Scotland.

 

27s?  Leave off the snowploughs and they're just another green box!

 

I could do with a 17 to round off my collection of Pilot Scheme locos....

[Chamby]

Yes but again you cant go by geography. There are lots of people south of the border that model Scotlands railways . Look at all these models of Ardlui  and stations on the West Highland . Its popular way beyond the shores of Bonnie Scotland . Just as there are modellers north of the border modelling the Southern . This there's only 5.3m Scots and that the size of the model railway market really is a bit of a bogus argument

And not only that but you don't have to live in Scotland to be interested in or model Scottish prototypes.  There are plenty of folk in the modelling world who have an interest in Welsh railways of all sorts and I bet a lot of them don't live in Wales.

 

The key is the disposable income demographic and then all sorts of things come into play around whatever decisions are made about the way that disposable income is spent, something attractive will probably always do well as both Bachmann and Hornby have proved in recent years while Kernow are showing yet again that prototypes in limited numbers doesn't necessarily hamper the model railway market..

Yes of course there are many other factors to consider if you want to be pedantic. But the headline principle stands, that a prototype with more localised interest needs to have something else going for it, to have a wider appeal to improve its commercial prospects. I simply quoted the Scottish example because of an emphasis within this thread. The same equally applies for other more localised interests, of course. But I maintain that for the significant majority of UK modellers, a purely Scottish prototype will be of peripheral interest only, and mainstream manufacturers have to take account of this. Sad for some, but true.

 

Phil

[Chamby]

Your population census is a little bit 'off' in your scenario.The headcount is accurate, but this falls down against the disposable income' demographic. You could argue that there are more A's & B's than Z10's north of Carlisle, than south of it.Some more spending power research is called for, methinks. Equally however, is the same scenario for anything west of Paddington.H&B? Hull & Barnsley Railway?Cheers,Ian.

H&B... Hornby & Bachmann. I simply used the abbreviation because it is used elsewhere in these forums.

[Roy Langridge]

Yes but again you cant go by geography. There are lots of people south of the border that model Scotlands railways . Look at all these models of Ardlui  and stations on the West Highland . Its popular way beyond the shores of Bonnie Scotland . Just as there are modellers north of the border modelling the Southern . This there's only 5.3m Scots and that the size of the model railway market really is a bit of a bogus argument

 

My middle son models Scotland, and he has only been there once. Oh, and he is only 11.

 

Roy

[luckymucklebackit]

If you build it - They will come!

[Legend]

Yes of course there are many other factors to consider if you want to be pedantic. But the headline principle stands, that a prototype with more localised interest needs to have something else going for it, to have a wider appeal to improve its commercial prospects. I simply quoted the Scottish example because of an emphasis within this thread. The same equally applies for other more localised interests, of course. But I maintain that for the significant majority of UK modellers, a purely Scottish prototype will be of peripheral interest only, and mainstream manufacturers have to take account of this. Sad for some, but true.

Phil

But by the same argument the SE&CR C class would only be of peripheral interest to anyone north of the Thames and west of Brighton , yet it still sold all over the country. A nice livery, something different ,just like a Caley Blue 812 or an NBR Maude would sell Edited December 22, 2017 by Legend

[Clive Mortimore]

17s are cute, and 26/0s can be Eastern Region up to 1960 so there are Rule 1 excuses to run them in locations other than Scotland.

 

27s?  Leave off the snowploughs and they're just another green box!

 

I could do with a 17 to round off my collection of Pilot Scheme locos....

Now that's fighting talk.......green box??????? The 1250hp BRCW type 2 Bo-Bos spent longer on the LMR than their lower powered brothers did on the ER. Gateshead and Tinsley had an allocation of Claytons.

 

Thinking about the population spread in this country with more people living in London than in the whole of Scotland the model railway market should be flooded with London Transport trains, so where is my ready to run R stock unit?

 

My experience of model railways and their owners there can be a tendency towards modelling locally but even that is often historically. People like to model want they want to hence a large number of Scottish highland layouts and Cornish branch lines modeled by residents of Essex. Is there anyone in Cornwall who has modelleld Harlow with all those lovely EMUs? 

[Steamysandy]

Now that's fighting talk.......green box??????? The 1250hp BRCW type 2 Bo-Bos spent longer on the LMR than their lower powered brothers did on the ER. Gateshead and Tinsley had an allocation of Claytons.

 

Thinking about the population spread in this country with more people living in London than in the whole of Scotland the model railway market should be flooded with London Transport trains, so where is my ready to run R stock unit?

 

My experience of model railways and their owners there can be a tendency towards modelling locally but even that is often historically. People like to model want they want to hence a large number of Scottish highland layouts and Cornish branch lines modeled by residents of Essex. Is there anyone in Cornwall who has modelleld Harlow with all those lovely EMUs?

Where do I stand living in Scotland but currently engrossed in Japanese trains

 

Now that's fighting talk.......green box??????? The 1250hp BRCW type 2 Bo-Bos spent longer on the LMR than their lower powered brothers did on the ER. Gateshead and Tinsley had an allocation of Claytons.

 

Thinking about the population spread in this country with more people living in London than in the whole of Scotland the model railway market should be flooded with London Transport trains, so where is my ready to run R stock unit?

 

My experience of model railways and their owners there can be a tendency towards modelling locally but even that is often historically. People like to model want they want to hence a large number of Scottish highland layouts and Cornish branch lines modeled by residents of Essex. Is there anyone in Cornwall who has modelleld Harlow with all those lovely EMUs?

Where do I stand living in Scotland but currently engrossed in Japanese trains

 

[Dunsignalling]

But by the same argument the SE&CR C class would only be of peripheral interest to anyone north of the Thames and west of Brighton , yet it still sold all over the country. A nice livery, something different ,just like a Caley Blue 812 or an NBR Maude would sell

 

The pre-group "Showman's engine" liveries aren't a good guide to total sales. They might cover the initial tooling costs though, in the case of the "Bluebell" C (estimated 1000 or 1500 produced) it won't, on it's own, have yielded much profit. The big question when a model sells out so quickly is always, how many could have been sold. 

 

It's the ongoing (and ideally multiple) sales of models in bread-and-butter group and BR liveries that really matter. It doesn't matter how much drool is expended over the fancy ones, if they aren't repeated, they only contribute once to the bottom line.

 

Commercially, I consider that Bachmann got their strategy all wrong with the C. The preserved one was always going to be the most-wanted version and that bolt is shot. I would have bought one, but missed out and I haven't bought any of the other versions. Why not? Simple; I enjoy my visits to the Bluebell and would have bought one for static display but I don't model the area where the prototypes ran in traffic. Result: multiple purchases of Hornby 700s, Bachmann C, No Sale...... If I'd had one, I would have got a "Birch Grove" to keep it company but, having been given the time to think about it, I dumped the idea of a "Bluebell Collection" altogether so they didn't sell me an E4 either.

 

I'm guessing that, if more 592s were available, the Bluebell shop wouldn't have much trouble selling half-a-dozen every week through the season. 

 

We all know that cute little engines in pretty liveries sell, though nobody has yet produced a batch big enough to find out where the upper limit lies. However, if the plain ones don't shift, too, it won't encourage the coverage of more prototypes from the same railway.

 

John

Edited December 22, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Clive Mortimore]

Where do I stand living in Scotland but currently engrossed in Japanese trains

 

Sounds like you are having a wonderful time not getting worked up about Hornby introducing a Lord Nelson , not a proper Nelson aka 4COR.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Clive Mortimore