Are we at a crossroads?

[AndyID]

I don't think we should abandon hope entirely.

 

 

(My five year old grandson in New Jersey.)

[PaulRhB]

A friends lad didn't want model trains until he was 8 because he preferred Brio because of its play options. He even shunned the battery Brio loco they bought him! They realised that part of it was changing from a large Brio set to a simple starter set from Hornby didn't offer the same variety to keep him entertained so they didn't abandon the electric set but steadily added to it until it matched the wooden set and he changed over. How many parents would assume he's just not interested and dump it?

When I built a layout for a friends lad I included a quarry and a racetrack, (on top of the tunnel), for his other toys so it brought it all together and encouraged play.

I also used to do G scale displays and included a variety of RC cranes, trucks, diggers and even tanks because it encouraged people to think of them together and the added 'play' value. I still hear of people avoiding trains because of the 'nerdy' association but if someone is into another modelling hobby and sees adding railway as a fun accessory it starts to erode that stereotype. I actually think James May, in toy stories and man lab, and Pete Waterman have done a lot to show it's just fun and expose how lazy the media cliche is.

So model railways as a fun, creative break from your console rather than direct competition?

Colourful liveries of pre group and today are great ways to grab attention in a shop window or at a show. It's noticeable that my local modelshop does have a circuit running in the window and he chooses bright liveries, the NR 37's etc, and he's primarily a military modeller who's only really got interested in rail since taking over the shop.

So you can sell the hobby to others with no pre existing interest by grabbing attention and then letting them discover the broad range of subjects, only one needs to fire their imagination.

[Dunsignalling]

Rather than contemplating the possible decline and fall of the hobby, and trying to analyse the causes, we should just enjoy what we have, which is much more than I ever expected to see. 

 

If others see us having a good time, that will do far more to attract newcomers than any amount of worrying about why we aren't being replaced by hordes of youngsters as we contemplate our own departures.  

 

There is currently a preponderance of people in the hobby who became interested in railways back in the 1950s and 1960s. The Golden Age of Railways always ended five or ten years before ones own interest was kindled IIRC from conversations with my immediate elders back in the day and I don't think that's changed much since. "It's rubbish here now; you should have seen it when..........."

 

Whatever turned each of us on to our chosen modelling period, I observed interest in the real thing steadily declining during the 1970s and 1980s. It is, therefore, not unreasonable to expect some fall-off in the numbers modelling/collecting as the baton gets passed to younger generations.

 

What will my models be worth when I am gone? What will my record collection be worth when I am gone? No idea, but I built both up for my own pleasure and the money, so far as I am concerned, is gone. Whatever comes back to my estate will be very nice for those in line for a slice of it but, in truth, it's not really my problem.

 

John

[The Stationmaster]

A new development by Hattons (their O gauge LNER pacific commissions) suggests that a new crossroads - or maybe a  Y junction - is emerging in the r-t-r part of our hobby.  The number of commissioned models, announced and delivered, in 4mm scale for 00 gauge has gradually increased over recent years and has, probably inevitably, begun to lead to duplication.  Even if the size of the market is static, in terms of money available to spend, there will be thinner slices of the cake for somebody, or several somebodies as 'specials' and commissions continue to appear in considerable numbers.

 

Hattons look to be trying a different approach by  creating a new market of reasonably priced (for what is promised) 0 gauge models of long popular prototypes, back to the good old standby of 'big engines'.  I'm not suggesting that 00 is dead, far from it, but the increasingly crowded market place is clearly causing some people to think about different ways of entering the market or broadening it.  And the interesting thing too is that few people nowadays will have the opportunity at home to run 'big' 0 gauge engines - will this cause an increase in those joining clubs in order to run their new toys or are we seeing a new category of 'collecting' emerging?

[Legend]

I agree that Hattons A3 and A4 are reasonably priced for "O" gauge , in fact I think they are brilliantly priced, but the fact remains we are still looking at £750 per model and coaches at £250 a shot, so a relatively expensive indulgence. Meanwhile over in the new Bachmann press day thread people are getting excited over Birdcages and Thompsons at what £55-£60 a shot , which despite fantastic detail claims, to me are still grossly overpriced compared to the latest L&SWR coaches from Hornby, which look equally detailed to me.

 

So this leads me to conclude another crossroads has been passed. This is now a rich mans hobby. The mainstream market has slowed and may even now be shrinking. Manufacturers are heading for niche markets where they can charge higher prices and those with means can continue to indulge.

 

Problem is , of course , that ultimately the market shrinks and long term sustainability must now be in doubt. This has got to be a major headache for Hornby . Which way do they go ? I think the trainset market has fallen off a cliff, kids are too busy searching for Pokemon monsters on their phones . Clearly what we used to consider the volume market eg J15s /D16s don't have such volumes as previously as there are a number for sale at sales prices. So should they head for the niche market too, lower volumes but higher margins and prices ? If they do, and we lose the "whole range" concept of Hornby , track pieces, stations etc , then it becomes even more difficult to start in this hobby

 

Sorry for the pessimistic post. If you can indulge in the next few years then you should be ok, but it will be difficult to attract new members to the Hobby and probably not at the rate the existing market suffers natural attrition. Add to this that savings rates are very very low, general prices may well increase because of Brexit , disposable income for most is going to be tight.

[Dunsignalling]

I agree that Hattons A3 and A4 are reasonably priced for "O" gauge , in fact I think they are brilliantly priced, but the fact remains we are still looking at £750 per model and coaches at £250 a shot, so a relatively expensive indulgence. Meanwhile over in the new Bachmann press day thread people are getting excited over Birdcages and Thompsons at what £55-£60 a shot , which despite fantastic detail claims, to me are still grossly overpriced compared to the latest L&SWR coaches from Hornby, which look equally detailed to me.

 

So this leads me to conclude another crossroads has been passed. This is now a rich mans hobby. The mainstream market has slowed and may even now be shrinking. Manufacturers are heading for niche markets where they can charge higher prices and those with means can continue to indulge.

 

Problem is , of course , that ultimately the market shrinks and long term sustainability must now be in doubt. This has got to be a major headache for Hornby . Which way do they go ? I think the trainset market has fallen off a cliff, kids are too busy searching for Pokemon monsters on their phones . Clearly what we used to consider the volume market eg J15s /D16s don't have such volumes as previously as there are a number for sale at sales prices. So should they head for the niche market too, lower volumes but higher margins and prices ? If they do, and we lose the "whole range" concept of Hornby , track pieces, stations etc , then it becomes even more difficult to start in this hobby

 

Sorry for the pessimistic post. If you can indulge in the next few years then you should be ok, but it will be difficult to attract new members to the Hobby and probably not at the rate the existing market suffers natural attrition. Add to this that savings rates are very very low, general prices may well increase because of Brexit , disposable income for most is going to be tight.

Collecting model trains in large volumes has always been a rich man's hobby. The high-quality/low price availability we experienced during the first decade of the 21st century through the off-shoring of production wasn't a new normal.  The effect could only last until the Chinese economy began to mature.

 

The same thing will happen again if manufacture shifts again, but increasing globalisation means the effect would be even shorter-lived. That's why Hornby etc. haven't already moved on from China. By the time they got new facilities properly up-and-running, the advantage would have almost dissipated. 

 

As for attracting youngsters to the hobby, we need to stop fooling ourselves; once out of the Thomas phase, most just aren't interested at any price. Today's candy-striped trains lack the grimy, visible, complexity that fascinated my generation as kids. Hornby know this which is why they are concentrating on attracting the grey pound while it's still there to be attracted. Things like the Adams Radial aren't even remotely aimed at kids; you need to be pushing forty even to remember seeing 488/30583 steam in preservation.  

 

The long term viability of the market will almost certainly need to be achieved through higher-value, smaller volume products - you point out yourself that sales of models like the J15 and D16 don't hold up well after the initial demand has been satisfied. After the currently-being-discounted ones are cleared, I wouldn't expect a re-run for four or five years if Hornby are smart about it. These aren't "volume products" any more than Adams Radials are - big, green, named locos and BR Mk1 coaches are volume products. Niche items need to be produced in small enough quantities that they sell out quickly at or near full price through fear of not getting one at all.  

 

Bachmann's planned coaches are going to be dearer than Hornby's recent ones (which are actually new bodies on an existing chassis) but you will still be able to get a whole train-worth of them for the cost of one Heljan Gresley. The latter only seems reasonable because we are accustomed to the prices of semi-hand-built metal coaches in O Gauge.

 

I do question why plastic coaches in O should cost three-and-a-half times as much as in 4mm, whether using the equivalent Hornby coaches or the forthcoming Bachmann Thompsons as comparators. The design/manufacturing process is identical and the extra material cost represents a small fraction of the total retail price - the only difference is the employment of larger, more expensive machinery, which is hired in for relatively short periods, not bought. If OO volumes shrank to a level close to O gauge (and/or the latter increased), the prices would converge, too.

 

Maybe this has already begun; the increasing move by Heljan and others to the larger scale is substantially driven by a realization that [1] the profit margin is much greater and [2] the punters don't complain about the prices. 

 

John

[The Stationmaster]

I think you're absolutely spot on John.  Clearly mass production r-t-r in 0 gauge will cost a bit more to make (and the boxes will cost more because they are bigger too - and I'm not joking) but the nett margins when considered against relatively small production runs must be better because the numbers are bigger to start with, and I don't doubt the market is there.

 

The real danger of course is that everything is becoming niche market which leaves the good old 'introduction to r-t-r and we sell everything for a complete trainset' manufacturer (i.e Hornby plus a touch of Bachmann) in an awkward position.  But look how both of them are trying to avoid being left - Hornby going for what are more or less niche items but - I think - still needing to adjust to the way the market has changed and, probably, underselling some things so not making as much as they should in such a market.  As a result I expect to see some Hornby prices rise because quite honestly in respect of some items a few quid on the price won't dent their sales too much if at all.  That is the course Bachmann seem to be following and they're still with us so far.

 

And yes - the price balance is creeping back to where it used to be but I think the expression 'rich man's hobby' isn't yet the case.  That will become the case if/when the price of a 4mm scale r-t-r loco exceeds a week's wages, i.e. it gets back to the state of play for much of the 1950s/early'60s where some Hornby Dublo locos really did cost a week's wages for many ordinary working men  (most women being paid even less back then of course).  Another new factor in the micx is of course Brexit - whatever it will turn out to mean and the fact, from yesterday, that borrowed money has become even cheaper which in theory will release more spending power into the economy from areas other than the grey £.

 

The average UK wage/salary is quoted as being between £26,500 (source - ONS) and £27,600 (another source) although many people/jobs average under half of that with quite a number of jobs being around £10,000 lower.  Even the latter at, say, £16,000 pa is an average of £307 per week which still sits some way above the recommended cost of British outline 4mm scale r-t-r locos by quite a margin.

[BG John]

The average UK wage/salary is quoted as being between £26,500 (source - ONS) and £27,600 (another source) although many people/jobs average under half of that with quite a number of jobs being around £10,000 lower.  Even the latter at, say, £16,000 pa is an average of £307 per week which still sits some way above the recommended cost of British outline 4mm scale r-t-r locos by quite a margin.

Although if it becomes more of a retirement hobby, with many more people probably relying on the state pension, and less on the relatively huge pensions some get today, there will be a lot of people who would like to model railways on an income nearer £8,000, or around £150 a week, most of which will go on staying alive and keeping a roof over their head.

[Dunsignalling]

Although if it becomes more of a retirement hobby, with many more people probably relying on the state pension, and less on the relatively huge pensions some get today, there will be a lot of people who would like to model railways on an income nearer £8,000, or around £150 a week, most of which will go on staying alive and keeping a roof over their head.

I think that's been the case for most of the history of the hobby. Those of us with limited means who want to participate in the hobby need to do so on a smaller scale (I don't mean N). However, that doesn't necessary mean not having a layout or enough stock to enjoy running on it.

 

Many of us, during the times of good and cheap models, amassed far more of them than we can contemplate actually using. My house isn't big enough to hold a layout able to accommodate half my collection. I did consciously 'stock up' ahead of retirement and freely admit most of it never gets used. The upside is that, just sitting there during a time of rising prices and rubbish interest rates, it's almost certainly better than having money in the bank.  

 

If we build layouts that will fit in the house we can afford and are careful to plan our expenditure on items appropriate to the layout that we really like, modelling need not be prohibitively expensive. People also value that which was hard to come by more highly; I got far more pleasure from the locos I had to save up for than those that were easy to afford. Collecting is an altogether different matter but, other than during the first decade of this century, it always has been.

 

Whether modeller or collector, if one chooses to model or collect to a theme and sticks with it, it not only keeps spending within bounds but having stuff that properly "goes together" and sees regular use, gives a satisfaction that worrying about the spare bedroom wardrobe approaching capacity never can.

 

John

[Andy Hayter]

 

 

 

 

 

 

I do question why plastic coaches in O should cost three-and-a-half times as much as in 4mm, whether using the equivalent Hornby coaches or the forthcoming Bachmann Thompsons as comparators. The design/manufacturing process is identical and the extra material cost represents a small fraction of the total retail price - the only difference is the employment of larger, more expensive machinery, which is hired in for relatively short periods, not bought. If OO volumes shrank to a level close to O gauge (and/or the latter increased), the prices would converge, too.

 

 

 

John

 

 

John

I have to agree with what you say regarding collecting as well as a move to O gauge.

 

Regarding the comparative costs, then we have to remember that O versus 00 increases the size by 7/4 - but increases it in height, length and width.  So a simple scale up implies an increase by around 5.4 (7/4 x 7/4 x 7/4).  This is not just the material used to make the model, but everything involved in physically making, packing and shipping the model.

 

Now this is a bit crude because I accept that in 4mm some items will be oversize - especially in terms of the depth of mouldings - and these can be scaled back when moving to a larger gauge (for example the width of the coach increases by 7/4 but the thickness of the side may be quite similar to a 4mm moulding).  Packaging (as mentioned above) will be greater as will shipping costs - you physically get fewer models in a container). 

 

As you suggest the moulding machines will be bigger and this will restrict the number of machines that could be used and maybe even the choice of moulders who have suitable machines of the necessary size and can do high detail moulding.  Restrictions = an opportunity to charge a higher price.  Add to that the size of the mould will be significantly bigger (again simplistically 5.4 times more metal) and will require a lot more energy to run.   The mould will also be costed against a significantly smaller production run - as suggested, something that the 00/H0 modellers will have to contend with as models become more niche.

 

I think therefore that a price ratio of 3.5 does not seem out of kilter with the known effects on price of production.

 

 

 

I would also add one further reason why the silver brigade might consider moving to O gauge and that is failing eyesight - as one struggling to get OHs HOe layout ready for this weeks village fete. 

[brianusa]

OK gents, I have read the latest comments and they seem to represent a fair change from only a few years ago.  Perhaps we have all grown older, retired or fearsome of the Brexit. We have lost about a third of our UK pensions which basically allowed discretionary spending on such things as trains.  As some may know of my history, having gone through the gauges and ended up with tinplate trains for many of the well known reasons.  They are big, no fiddly couplers, easy to rerail and have relatively few problems and easy to see..  With the cost of OO/HO rising to within a few Dollars/Pounds of their O scale brethren, cost is not now such a difference.

 

Space is always the problem.  There used to be case that one could cram twice as much OO into an O gauge space, which probably could be so with a train set, but with todays quest for scale trains and wide curves, that reason is a bit moot now.  I an fortunate to have a train room albeit shared with the A/C and water heater but room enough for a fairly extensive layout which perhaps some have seen on these threads.

 

My profile fits many herein, older, retired, enough train money to spend and before you know it, you actually have enough.  My stock overfloweth, on shelves, in boxes, on and under the layout so I am well past any crossroads as I suspect, are many of my contemporaries here.

 

Brian.

[APOLLO]

My story is similar to others in some respects. I started with Tri-ang TT back around 1960, moved into OO around 1971, I still have my large OO loft layout, built for running trains rather than realism. I also started with American O gauge around 1982, which I still model in as per link below. American O was dirt cheap back in the 80's compared to UK O gauge.

 

I too have reached a plateau in buying. I have all I need / want., in both scales, and I don't envisage many major purchases from here forwards, indeed I am thinking of thinning my OO collection sometime in the future - I have over 50 years worth of "stuff" !! 

 

Not to say I am packing in, no, not at all, my layouts still have many jobs to do, weathering, detailing, improving running etc etc,

 

I now need to spend time rather than money.

 

Brit 15

[Jongudmund]

 

Some might think the computer games teenagers like as negative and destructive, but that is what they like and they spend a lot of money on them. Many also play games like Dungeons and Dragons(amazingly it is still very popular), and all the associated figures and models to build and paint. Hang on that does not sound very different to the average railway modeller. So maybe something game based and tactile, based on model railways. A proper revamp of the Battle Space range would be a start, and having ability to fire some missiles at punters who are causing trouble at exhibitions.....

 

 

That would be quite easy to do really. Set up two circuits with trains going round in alternate directions. Each train has 3 wagons. Two wagons have 'missiles'  that can be launched remotely at the other train - just a simple RC switch would do. The train engine has a target on that can be knocked off. One of the wagons will explode when hit. The other two missile wagons could also have removable targets that can be knocked off (could be crew members / army men).

 

Each circuit has a 'tunnel' area where they are safe and you can reload the missiles. You keep going round until you've exploded the other trains wagon or had yours exploded. You could have several rounds and the targets could be bonus points. 

 

Obviously the starter set would be quite a big outlay for parents with 2 circuits of track plus controllers, the cardboard tunnels, two engines and six wagons - but if they used smokey joe type engines, Hornby could probably knock that up to retail at less than £100. There could also be add on sets - e.g. additional missile wagons that fire more missiles, wagons with swinging booms that would knock the targets off the other train, 'light and sound' wagons that go KABOOM when they explode and have spinning warning lights on them. Slightly bigger, more responsive engines etc etc. Airfix have done some Lego style models, so you could have some wagons you have to build / customise as well. If you don't want it to appear too militaristic, you could relaunch it as battle space and have earthmen versus aliens as the little characters.

 

I'd play with that but then I act my shoe size not my age.

[The Nth Degree]

A few words abouts comparative costs.

 

Firstly, using products from another company and at a different scale are not valid as a comparator. Without identical demand, expectations, strategy and costs it is impossible to exactly compare two products, least of all in price.

 

The most important cost factor of the two scales being compared here is product volume. An 0 gauge product is 8 times the volume of its 00 gauge equivalent. What this means in practice is the machines used to produce the models are vastly different, and that difference is the pressure required to hold the much bigger mould tooling together when injecting the substrate.

 

A typical injection moulding machine capable of producing many 00 models you could quite comfortably fit into your lounge, producing around 50-80 tons of pressure on the mould case, and would cost the same amount as a small car. A machine used to produce those Heljan coaches mentioned above could sometimes be the same length as a tennis court and produce several hundred tons of pressure. The costs vary considerably, but we are talking house prices even for the cheapest (ironically) Chinese machines. The very best European machines are eye-wateringly expensive.

 

There are many differences in the running costs of those two example machines. The time it takes to pay back your investment, for one, but even the time it takes to set up the two machines for different jobs is staggering in their cost differences. One man can operate the smaller machine, but simply changing the tool on the bigger one will require a forklift or hydraulic lifter.

 

I know it's easy to say that one is a bit bigger than the other so the costs should only be a bit bigger too, but it is vastly different on the production floor.

 

From what I've seen of recent new tooling 00 model prices, 0 gauge RTR is a bargain.

[AndyID]

 An 0 gauge product is 8 times the volume of its 00 gauge equivalent.

 

Probably more like 5.5 times, but it certainly is a lot larger.

[ParkeNd]

I think Brianusa has it right. I have had enough funds to hit saturation point on rolling stock within 4 years of starting modelling. With a fully matured 7ft 6in x 2ft 4in N gauge layout most of my 35 locos live in their boxes. Obsessive purchasers might just keep going but that's not me - I just don't need any more and don't have any plans to buy more.

 

From various forum requests I suspect that small modern houses with the tendency for offspring not to leave home and free up bedrooms allied to a wish to model too big a scale in too small a space is causing layout building to fail before much stock is bought- nothing much is heard after the initial layout design queries.

 

Despite the price rises it is still a cheap hobby in comparison with many other quite ordinary activities so I don't think any contraction of model rail volume is about price. Holidays seem to be what people prefer to spend money on nowadays rather than the acquisition of physical goods - the dissapearance of high street furniture stores is further evidence.

 

So I reckon we are at a crossroads based on my theory of the "impact of three" influences always being unsurvivable. Not enough space, saturation of existing purchases, and holidays replacing acquisition of more physical goods. The hobby could continue unnafected by one or two of these influences - but not by all three at the same time.

[coachmann]

The Nth Degree, on 06 Aug 2016 - 00:46, said:

 An 0 gauge product is 8 times the volume of its 00 gauge equivalent.

 

Probably more like 5.5 times, but it certainly is a lot larger.

 

Nth Degree is about right. Taking a coach side, it is about four times larger than a 4mm coach and four time thicker.

 

But production cost is none of our business, although it never stops amateurs from thinking they know everything there is to know about manufacturing when they have never worked for themselves. As I type this, the shelf in front of me has a display of several Hornby and Bachmann steam locos. The detail on each loco is amazing to me and all for what......around a hundred smackers? When much of my life has been spent painting client's metal locos, I can tell you none ever carried the fine detail or squareness of construction or running qualities of today plastic RTR. When people complain about prices, it is as if they hold the proprietary manufacturers in contempt instead of being grateful. if you can't or won't build and you still want railway models, RTR is your answer.  Even if you can build, as I can, RTR is always worth considering.

[Legend]

But there is a difference in cost between a hand produced metal loco and a mass produced piece of plastic . So even though the detail is same or better the cost of producing it is much less .

[coachmann]

But there is a difference in cost between a hand produced metal loco and a mass produced piece of plastic . So even though the detail is same or better the cost of producing it is much less .

The cost of producing the latter is ginormous. Only mass-production brings down unit costs, and of course the use of much cheaper labour than in our country to assemble the goods. If we in the UK are to depend on people's less well off than us, we are in no position to complain the goods they produce are expensive. 

[The Stationmaster]

But there is a difference in cost between a hand produced metal loco and a mass produced piece of plastic . So even though the detail is same or better the cost of producing it is much less .

 

I do believe there is a massive difference.  I am aware of how much a well known builder of coaches happens to charge for his products and I am equally aware of what the latest r-t-r coaches from Hornby and Bachman cost and the price difference is as much as fivefold or more. Now I happen to think that both offer excellent value for the price but that does alter the fact that the difference between the two prices is considerable and that the r-t-r product is amazingly cheap compared with that  by the well known builder of coaches (albeit for something with a more accurate livery finish).  The other point is that the r-t-r coaches of today are miles ahead of those of, say, even 20-25 years ago in terms of accuracy to prototype and level of detail so in effect we are getting more bangs for our £ with the latest r-t-r coaches.  

 

The same of course goes for locos where the prices from a top notch handbuilder are no doubt way beyond those of an r-t-r product.  And, as is often noted on various threads, the cost of a kit to put together and completely finish yourself is likely to be more than a comparable r-t-r model and then you have to build it, which of course can offer challenges and a sort of enyjoyment and sense of fulfilment you do not get by the process of 'unboxing' - but it is time consuming and that is time many people might not have.  You could also handbuild yourself from raw materials but you might still have to buy wheels, gears and a motor - no doubt getting well towards three figures for all but a very small tank engine in 4mm scale.

 

But at the same time let's not forget that the UK 'manufacturer'/commissioner of models has lots of overheads to add to the basic production price both for development and for other things such as finance and other business overheads - all of that has to go into the r-t-r retail price because that is the only way those costs can be funded.

[stewartingram]

​The cost of manufacturing the plastic item is in itself low. But if may parts are added, that cost rises substantially. And to get to the point of manufacture, there is much work (ie cost) involved in design, and manufacture of moulds. This cost has to be spread over the production run. This is why a commissioned model (say from Kernow or Hattons) costs more than a production run from a normal manufacturer (such as Bachmann or Hornby). The sales outlet is limited to 1 shop, not the whole range of outlets the manufacturer has, so the R&D cost is naturally spread over fewer items, and the shop needs a quicker return on its substantial outlay otherwise it can go under.

 

Stewart

[AndyID]

 

 

Nth Degree is about right. Taking a coach side, it is about four times larger than a 4mm coach and four time thicker.

 

I'm pretty sure Nth degree was simply cubing the scale ratio between 0 and 00. The ratio is 7/4, or 1.75. For the volume that gives us 1.75 cubed, or 5.36 (approximately).

 

The difference in volume between 0 and H0 is 8 times.

[Fenman]

...

The long term viability of the market will almost certainly need to be achieved through higher-value, smaller volume products - you point out yourself that sales of models like the J15 and D16 don't hold up well after the initial demand has been satisfied. After the currently-being-discounted ones are cleared, I wouldn't expect a re-run for four or five years if Hornby are smart about it. These aren't "volume products" any more than Adams Radials are - big, green, named locos and BR Mk1 coaches are volume products. Niche items need to be produced in small enough quantities that they sell out quickly at or near full price through fear of not getting one at all.

...

I agree with almost all that you wrote, but I think your point about D16s is not quite right: it is certainly a sort of mainstream product (BR(ER) branchlines) but it is also a niche product (Royal trains with fancy liveries), and we've yet to see what I am guessing will be the biggest sellers - green express liveries.

 

Not all small black engines are the same.

 

Paul

[The Ghost of IKB]

I want to take issue with a remark made early on in this thread about how we as consumers have brought this on ourselves.  What absolute nonsense.

Only manufacturers (maybe "providers" is a more accurate term) are to blame for the mismanagement of the market.

Inability or unwillingness to negotiate better contracts, outdated supply chain methods, practically no strategy whatsoever for increasing the youth market for their products.

Flooding the market with models that then need heavy discounting - which then leads people to wait it out for future discounts on other models.  Wasting production slots on crap that no one wants, (Hornby's gwr 0-4-0 for example).

Saying that the constant wish listing and frothing of a tiny proportion of the market is somehow to blame for the sad state of affairs Hornby and Bachmann find themselves in is crazy 

If I and 1,000 other nutcases demanded that kelloggs made their cornflakes exactly the same dodecahedronal shape and available in 15 different colours, do you think they would be stupid enough to do it?, especially if it meant getting rid of all their production capacity and entrusting all future production to a foreign and commercially often hostile nation to keep production costs down.  Of course not.  The fact is the big 2 manufacturers are not very smart.  Short term thinking and lack of innovation is going to kill them off.  And if the future of the model railway world is a legion of small Phil Sutton-esque direct sale businesses producing great products with a clear pricing strategy like he does then bring it on.

[The Ghost of IKB]

 

The Nth Degree, on 06 Aug 2016 - 00:46, said:

 

Nth Degree is about right. Taking a coach side, it is about four times larger than a 4mm coach and four time thicker.

 

 

 

If it's surface area is four times greater and its four times thicker then the volume of material is surely 16 times greater not eight.  The actual volume of the item is 5.35 times bigger.(1.75 x 1.75 x 1.75)  Looking at Heljan locomotives though I'd query whether there is 16 times the amount of material used.